Re: [Sustainable DC Energy] Interview and Video with Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute
David Schwartzman
I think it is important to hear Jim Hansen’s views regarding
Lovins’ solar optimism. Hansen is
the leading climate scientist who has contributed so much to our thinking
regarding the prospect of catastrophic climate change, and the significance of
350 ppm level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. He critiques Amory Lovins for his unfulfilled
prediction made in 1977 regarding
the rapid growth of the soft path in his 2011 "Baby Lauren and the Kool-Aid" article (www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110729_BabyLauren.pdf); look at Hansen's graph showing how far short Lovins was.
Lovins is of course a long
proponent of Green Capitalism (even C taxes are not necessary according to him),
arguing that solar will rapidly expand in the capitalist market because of its
positives, as the link below brings out.
Looking at the near exponential growth of wind and photovoltaics in the last few years, Lovins is not completely wacko, but this growth is still about 20 to 30 times slower than what is needed for a rapid replacement of and not simply an increment on our present global system deriving 85% from fossil fuels (note that global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise). So I think Hansen is quite correct to be a solar pessimist with his conclusion that green capitalism left to its own momentum will not result in 100% solar in the "foreseeable future". But this is no reason to argue as Hansen does that renewables have no hope in replacing our present unsustainable energy infrastructure by 2050. This won’t likely happen with business as usual, rather this is the precisely the reason why radical changes in investment priorities must be forced with the governments doing most of the heavy lifting, a Global Green New Deal. Where are these resources going to come from without serious cuts in the military budget, now $1.4 trillion a year, and the end of an imperial agenda leading to more resource wars? This is the conclusion of not only the left but such luminaries as Jeffrey Sachs and Lester Brown. This is the immense challenge to implement a Global Green New Deal, that simultaneously confronts the economic and climate crises. As Gus Speth, a leading environmentalist, has recently emphasized, real existing capitalism must be radically changed to serve humanity’s needs and not those of the corporate financial oligarchies. Read his eloquent manifesto in the latest Orion (March/April). Occupy the Climate! And lets do our own part locally.
Here's an interesting interview and video with Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute. http://e360.yale.edu/feature/amory_lovins_clean_energy_guru_presents_his_master_plan/2496/--Lovins is the author of Reinventing Fire, a step-by-step blueprint for how to transition to a renewable energy economy by mid-century. His perspective is unique, claiming that the business sector has already reached the tipping point in moving toward renewable energy and energy efficiency for cost and risk reduction reasons, and that this trend will snowball with or without Congressional involvement. By 2050, these shifts will result in $5 trillion in savings to the American economy, and 80% of our electricity coming from renewable sources, all using existing technology. Skip the news and read the interview or watch the video. They don't cover the same info.Steve Seuser
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