Hello all,
It would be really helpful if prior to our next meeting on Thursday (6:00-8:00pm, Room 1117 in One Judiciary Square), the group could think about how to align all of our target goals. For example, the Institute for Local Self Reliance did a study (see attached) that said the District could offset a total 19% of energy consumption (2007 demand numbers) using rooftop solar (generation inside the city limits), and another 13% using CHP (we don’t have wind capacity and the study didn’t include tidal/river generation, waste-to-energy, biomass, etc.). But we have voted on these goals:
35% renewable by 2025
65% renewable by 2050
and
5% energy reductions by 2015
25% energy reductions by 2025
60% energy reductions by 2035
There is a green roof study of DC that stated that we have about 75 million square feet of potential green roof space in the District (assuming 80% of total area of roofs greater than 10,000 square feet). If we translated that into solar, it would add up to around 215-380 MW of capacity (depending on the panel efficiencies and other things). Now, 80% coverage is overly generous of course given that some plants can grow in shade and solar doesn’t. But, given that the green roof study was only for buildings greater than 10,000 square feet, which leaves out most single family homes in the District, perhaps the number is OK to use for now. 215-380MW would offset a small percentage of current total consumption. According to the ILSR study, the District would need 32.3% of its total land area in order to be totally self-reliant, which of course is not likely.
The SEU is charged with reducing energy consumption in the District by 1% per year, and our energy efficiency targets are more than twice that over time and nearly triple that by 2035. So we need to figure out how to augment what the SEU is doing to achieve our targets. This also does not factor in growth in energy demand due to new development and the increase in the number of residents in DC.
So thinking on how we get there would also be very useful as we further refine our goals and actions. Just some food for thought—see you all at our next meeting!
Bill Updike
Program Analyst
Government of the District of Columbia
Department of the Environment
1200 First Street, NE 5th Floor
Washington, DC 20002
(202) 535-1337 - Direct

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Prof. Schwartzman -No one in the work-groups is denying that we are spewing CO2 irresponsibly and ought to be slapped into reality. The reality-check includes how technology is likely to evolve and how soon we can transform our profligate economy into one that is truly sustainable. (I might also point out that sustainable may not mean carbon-zero, but reducing per capita emissions by 80%, a number compatible with the IPCC 450 ppm target.)
That said, we definitely should include big improvements in solar panel efficiency in our projections. Affordable rooftop solar panels a decade from now will likely have 50% higher efficiency than we have today. By 2050, who knows. For the near-term the super high-efficiency multi-junction cells are likely to be restricted to large solar installations with sun-tracking and cooling, not very likely on residences, but possible in some DC solar-fields.
On another front, one of our present awkward issues is the advent of cheap natural gas, which may be encouraging the transition from coal for electricity generation, but is discouraging the next step to carbon-free sources for electricity, transport, and heating. This suggests a great university project: converting the abundant natural gas into hydrogen and storing the carbon. A hydrogen energy economy is clearly a great final goal.
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For those who really want to get into the weeds on solar panel efficiencies, here’s the Wiki link about the Shockley-Queisser Limit:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shockley%E2%80%93Queisser_limit
The limit is a maximum of 33.7% efficiency for single p-n junction crystalline cells. There is a lot of development in multi-junction and other technologies these days, and we could see greater efficiencies in those. Remember though, that these are cell efficiencies and not module efficiencies (those cap out at less than 20% these days). And then add some efficiency losses for the whole system. The challenge that we have in the District is a square footage one. If we are going to shoot for 60-100% renewables by 2050, some of that capacity may/will likely have to come from outside of the District boundaries. All of this (including the energy efficiency goals we have) will of course take an Apollo Project type effort, and as Gene said, the price of natural gas and the opening up of shale deposits certainly doesn’t help.
Bill Updike
Program Analyst
Government of the District of Columbia
Department of the Environment
1200 First Street, NE 5th Floor
Washington, DC 20002
(202) 535-1337 - Direct

- Gene

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Other information sources for renewable energy include:
Rocky Mountain Institute: http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/ReinventingFire
RAND Corporation: http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2006/2006-11-13-05.asp
Scientific American: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030
The U.S. military plans to generate 50% renewable energy by 2025.
Germany has blown past its aggressive renewable energy goals of 2020. The overall Eurozone goal was 20% renewables by 2020, a goal Germany reached for itself in 2011.
Steve Seuser
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Thank you to everyone who participated in this email thread. I’ve enjoyed reading it. Thanks as well to those who came out Thursday night to help winnow the goals and actions down and make them more specific!
Pardon the slight re-wind on the threads flying about earlier this week but I wanted to mention a goal that I and several others suggested at earlier meetings that didn’t make it to the list. I believe it is already represented in spirit by many of the goals that did make the list but because our ultimate goal is sustainable energy, I’m pitching it again here:
By 2050, all sectors of the District will consume no more energy than can be produced from local and regional renewable energy sources.
It’s a rather simplistic statement to be sure but I think it’s important for us to implicitly recognize in our goals that sustainable energy means equalizing our demand with renewable supply. I realize there are other definitions of sustainable energy out there but that’s the one I feel meets the spirit of this process the best.
If we don’t think we can reach this equalized (sustainable) goal by 2050 then another alternative would be something like this:
By 2050, the District will produce 50% of all energy consumed from local and regional renewable energy sources.
What do you think? Is there room for a goal like this on our list?
Corey Ramsden