US military: dipping oil supply, "massive shortages" by '15
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BobbyG
Apr 15, 2010, 7:18:46 PM4/15/10
to Sustain Central Wisconsin
The US Military. One thing you can say about them--they're constantly
gaming and forecasting the threats to their way of life, unlike many
institutions in the global economy...
Cap On Trade(TM) coming soon, even without any legislative action
whatsoever...
bg
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel
Surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012 a report from
US Joint Forces Command, says. Photograph: Katja Buchholz/Getty Images
The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could
disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by
2015 with a significant economic and political impact.
The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report
from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in
Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to
soon top $100 a barrel.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear,
and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10
million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a
senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic,
political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it
surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing
and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other
unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the
path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both
China and India."
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy
but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with "an
intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to
guide out future force developments."
The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has
turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a
distant threat to a more immediate risk.
The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively
dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met
concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly
changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that
there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior
officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally
about this upbeat stance.
Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it
is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP
chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little
chance of crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned
in America because the US military like to have local supplies rather
than rely on the politically unstable Middle East.
But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be
changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French
newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama
administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may experience
a decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if
the investment was not forthcoming.
Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who
has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the
American military moves the debate on.
"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of
Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it
could be interesting to know on which study the information is based
on," he said.
"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy)
has been saying for years that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light
of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still
confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?"
The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what
can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. "One
should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of
totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations
by ruthless conquest," it points out.
--
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gaming and forecasting the threats to their way of life, unlike many
institutions in the global economy...
Cap On Trade(TM) coming soon, even without any legislative action
whatsoever...
bg
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel
Surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012 a report from
US Joint Forces Command, says. Photograph: Katja Buchholz/Getty Images
The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could
disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by
2015 with a significant economic and political impact.
The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report
from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in
Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to
soon top $100 a barrel.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear,
and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10
million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a
senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic,
political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it
surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing
and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other
unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the
path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both
China and India."
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy
but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with "an
intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to
guide out future force developments."
The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has
turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a
distant threat to a more immediate risk.
The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively
dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met
concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly
changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that
there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior
officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally
about this upbeat stance.
Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it
is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP
chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little
chance of crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned
in America because the US military like to have local supplies rather
than rely on the politically unstable Middle East.
But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be
changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French
newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama
administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may experience
a decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if
the investment was not forthcoming.
Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who
has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the
American military moves the debate on.
"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of
Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it
could be interesting to know on which study the information is based
on," he said.
"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy)
has been saying for years that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light
of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still
confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?"
The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what
can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. "One
should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of
totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations
by ruthless conquest," it points out.
--
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To post to this group, send email to sustain-cent...@googlegroups.com.
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