WEF: Sovereign Debt Default top sustainability risk for 2010
BobbyG
riskiest debtor nations, but as yet, that worry isn't on the radar.
Dollar and oil moved up in parallel; risk of full-scale deflation
still looms and hundreds more banks face late-Friday afternoon
sessions with Sheila Bair's crew. Conservatives have been warning
about hyper-inflation since the big AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and
other big financials bail-up in Late Bush, 2008. So far, a hollow
warning.
And unemployment? The USA seems able to tolerate incredibly high
levels of the stuff with no social repercussions. I think we could
easily add 15-18 million new impoverished workers with each 3-year dip
in the recession cycle during the 2010s decade, as we've done this
time. It's easy to forget about 60 million poor people when you ain't
one of 'em and don't need to see them every day.
But then again, these things are highly unpredictable...
bobby g
--------------------------
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60D24X20100114
'The report, highlighting the risk developed nations could overextend
"unsustainable levels of debt," said full-blown debt crises would have
inevitable social and political consequences, not least higher
unemployment.'
D Wright Esq & Ann H Wright
happen---rather like Mexico where the gov. makes sure tortillas are almost
free. . Here in Wisconsin there is a long pattern of many folks not working
in the winter and they see the unemployment as a low cost vacation--maybe a
little ice fishing, tube watching, beer drinking---like me. The big issues
will arrive when there is no relief. We might be able to eat up one step
down the stairs but, as you implied, as we go to the next level it will get
harder and harder to keep it going. We are apparently at 17.5% real
unemployment now and it is trickling down. I can feel it---renter having
hard time to pay.
At least this is not Haiti. A few years from now and other nations may not
be able to help them through their overshoot. Not pretty. Still, I do have
hope, but it is with some attachments. D Wright
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Chris Malek
Good comments as usual.
I like to think that this is the calm before the storm, but who really
knows? As Bobby says, you can't really repeat history. Nothing has
ever been like the times we are living in.
Some interesting things:
New data shows that credit card borrowing has plunged. Have people
kicked the debt habit? "That can't be good for the economy." If you
have no earnings and you won't borrow, how can anything be purchased?
Involuntary simplicity indeed.
Welfare keeps flowing. As long as people keep getting unemployment
and food stamps, I don't see much unrest developing. You have to
wonder if the government will keep borrowing money to pay for it all.
Why not? The Fed could just as well own everything anyways.
Sales in December were off, but some "pundits" say it won't be that
bad once people cash in all those gift cards. However, I have one
nagging question. Didn't all of those stores count those gift cards
in their sales numbers? You have to pay for them, don't you? As far
as the stores are concerned, they would be better to hope that nobody
cashes them in. They get the money and don't have to let any
inventory leave. However, that wouldn't do much for the larger
economy. Buying plastic cards is not very "stimulating".
I am not too shy to admit that I am one of those who are skeptical of
this whole global warming/climate change thing. One of the things I
learned in statistics is that correlation does not mean causation.
The data I see with carbon dioxide and temperatures has too much noise
in it to convince me. One big solar flare or one big volcanic
eruption can do a lot to change the numbers. And who really
appreciates the feedback mechanisms of the earth? Running out of coal
and oil will probably do more to stop CO2 going into the air than
anything else. As long as China, Russia, Europe, the United States
and the other big economies have "economic guns" pointed at each
other's heads, I don't see anyone dropping their cheap energy use and
risking the consequences.
Much more could be said, but it is time to go to sleep and live for
another day. And yes, I still support a local economy over a global
one, especially when I find that shipping produce long distances
leaves little capital to build a better life.
Chris Malek
On Jan 14, 9:05 pm, "D Wright Esq & Ann H Wright" <dkwri...@wi-
BobbyG
our household membership.
Interesting statistic from AARP, gleaned from govt. stats:
"42% of unemployed workers over 55 have given up seeking employment."
After a while, you realize what Einstein said is probably right,
paraphrasing Al now: "doing the same thing over and over (e.g.,
applying for jobs you aren't likely to get) and expecting different
results is the definition of a thought disorder."
B.G.
BobbyG
On Jan 14, 11:38 pm, Chris Malek <chrisjma...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Running out of coal
> and oil will probably do more to stop CO2 going into the air than
> anything else. As long as China, Russia, Europe, the United States
> and the other big economies have "economic guns" pointed at each
> other's heads, I don't see anyone dropping their cheap energy use and
> risking the consequences.
Chris, this is true I think, and the back-story as they say behind the
Copenhagen Summit failure. Everyone in Washington & New York City
who's involved with the economy realizes the extent to which Gross
Domestic Product is tied directly to fossil fuel usage. Speaking of
correlation and causation! As long as GDP is going to be the only
measurement of the health of the economy that anyone in high positions
takes a look at (they give a nod to unemployment, but truly do not
care about the people behind the numbers I firmly believe), then you
can't make any progress on cutting back on carbon because you can't
afford a sharp drop in GDP. For the Federal Reserve, even a 2% drop
in GDP would be considered the economic equivalent of the 'quake in
Haiti.
We need some different parameters to measure the situation of people
in the brave new world we entered into when this mess began.
B.G.
D Wright Esq & Ann H Wright
CO2 generation (tundra), so while the depletion of fossil fuels may be a bit
of a hope on the warming front, it may be best just to position ones self to
deal with a weirder world. I mentioned to my son in Fairbanks AK that he
might want to be down here to deal with some changing times. He is very on
top of all these same issues and he casually mentioned that the growing
season where he lives has increases by some 20 days in the last 12 years. He
wise-cracked that in another ten years, Alaska will be the new
Midwest---with a lot fewer people. Here is a great talk by Jeff Rubin. It
has a interesting positive note and does very much plug going local. Fire up
those taters, D Wright
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2010/01/15/jeff-rubin-at-the-business-of-climate-change/
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobbyG" <land...@charter.net>
To: "Sustain Central Wisconsin" <sustain-cent...@googlegroups.com>
BobbyG
On Jan 18, 12:37 am, "D Wright Esq & Ann H Wright" <dkwri...@wi-
net.com> wrote:
> All too true. Unfortunately, other feedback loops will be set in motion with
> CO2 generation (tundra), so while the depletion of fossil fuels may be a bit
> of a hope on the warming front, it may be best just to position ones self to
> deal with a weirder world.
David, no argument here. I am not one of those who argues that "peak
oil will take care of that climate change thing."
In fact, I think peak oil will help ramp-up the emissions of carbon
dioxide. Here's why.
Keep in mind, I don't buy for a minute that any US administration
which is under the thumb of the plutocracy (look that one up folks) is
going to significantly scale-back the USA's use of fossil fuels.
There is just too much money riding on keeping the machinery humming.
When oil liquids begin seriously depleting (any time now), there will
be some frantic efforts to do these things:
1. get more tar/oil sands production, a big CO2 emitter. Canada is
fast becoming a formerly-democratic failed state. I talk with loads
of Canadians every week, progressive ones, and they're very dismayed
at the direction Canada is heading.
2. Gasification of coal will become the new trendy "clean coal"
application.
3. Conversion over to natural gas, Liquified Natural Gas, and
Compressed Natural Gas as motor fuel will proceed quickly. T. Boone
Pickens will make out like a bandit, because he sees this coming.
4. Use of coal in electric power as replacement motive power for all
these vehicles will also ramp-up significantly. Clean green Chevy
"Volt" cars will be sucking lots of coal-fired electrics.
No, peak oil will just make things worse, not stop the CO2 percentage
going to the sky.
By the way, there's a new gas to worry about in the atmosphere:
methane from the fast-melting permafrost and peat bogs, not to mention
undersea. Caused by the (naturally occurring) warming of the earth's
atmosphere, at the same time we are on the verge of a new ice age.
Or so Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage, and Glen Beck tell
me on those occasions when I tune in.
Bobby G.