South Sudan power-sharing collapse: “a full-scale war”

[John Ashworth]

South Sudan power-sharing collapse drives violence and mass displacement

“There is no other description other than a full-scale war.”

Francis Michael Awang
The New Humanitarian
12 March 2026

AKOBO, South Sudan & NAIROBI

Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by fighting in
South Sudan since the start of the year, as the collapse of a
power-sharing accord between the government and the main opposition
movement drives new violence across the country.

The situation is particularly severe in Jonglei state, where the
national military (SSPDF) began an offensive in January after losing
garrisons to opposition forces. The operations have led to widespread
abuses against civilians.

“We heard the government intended to attack, so we fled to the bush,”
said John Dhie, a man from the town of Walgak, which is in Jonglei. “A
bomb fell near my house [and] everything we owned was burned.”

Dhie spoke to The New Humanitarian from Akobo town, which was a safe
haven for displaced Jonglei residents until last week when the SSPDF
called on civilians, aid groups, and UN peacekeepers there to leave
ahead of a planned assault.

The South Sudanese government, led by President Salva Kiir from the
ruling SPLM party, formed a unity administration with the opposition
SPLM-IO in 2020 as part of a peace deal to resolve a 2013-2018 civil
war that cost an estimated 400,000 lives.

But critics say the president used much of the peace process to
consolidate power and marginalise opposition groups, courting
defections and defunding efforts to absorb rebel fighters into a
unified national army.

Clashes between the SSPDF and SPLM-IO forces were not uncommon during
the peace process, but troubles accelerated last year, especially
after Kiir arrested SPLM-IO leader and First Vice President Riek
Machar, dismantling the peace deal.

A UN inquiry report last month said the detention of Machar undermined
core power-sharing arrangements, triggering political uncertainty and
armed clashes on a scale that has not been witnessed in the country
for the past decade.

The report accused the government, which is supported by Ugandan
troops, of using incendiary bombs in airstrikes on
opposition-affiliated areas in seven states. It said internal
displacement rose by almost 40% last year to 3.2 million people.

Some analysts who spoke to The New Humanitarian warned the conflict
could expand and merge with the war in Sudan. Others predicted more
localised clashes and confrontations, pointing to the weakness of both
the SPLM-IO and the SPLM.

Few, however, said the peace deal that ostensibly ended the last civil
war still appears viable. “If you look at all the indicators, there is
no other description other than a full-scale war,” said Ter Manyang
Gatwech, a human rights defender.

Testimonies from Jonglei

On the ground, residents who spoke to The New Humanitarian from
Jonglei described atrocities by SSPDF forces and allied militias, as
well as struggling in displacement centres where the government had
not allowed aid groups to access.

Eyewitnesses spoke of interrogations, killings, and spending days
hiding as their homes were razed by government forces. Some survivors
said the level of brutality exceeded what they had witnessed during
the 2013-2018 war.

Nyathai Gatluk said her sister was killed during airstrikes on the
village of Lankien. Gatluk said she then travelled to the site of the
attack to retrieve her sister’s three children, among them a newborn
of five days. “I am caring for them alone,” she said.

Another Lankien resident, Nyakhan Gatkhor, said she was ambushed by
the SSPDF while fleeing. She said one man in her group was killed and
three were abducted. She said survivors were found by the SPLM-IO, who
brought them to safety.

Following the attacks, survivors said they have been desperately
searching for relatives, with church compounds and other gathering
points in displacement centres being used to exchange information in
the hope of tracing loved ones.

Nyawer Machar, who fled from Walgak to a town near Akobo, said that
since escaping her home, she has not heard from her mother. “I just
want my mother to know that I am safe… and that I am looking for her,”
she said.

Machar said the fate of several other relatives also remains unknown,
including an aunt who she said was taken away by SSPDF soldiers during
the offensive on Walgak.

Gatwech, the human rights defender, said international relief
organisations have been blocked from delivering aid to tens of
thousands of displaced people in Akobo, which the government now
claims to have taken over from the SPLM-IO.

“They don’t want that money to go to the people who need it,” Gatwech
said, describing a common strategy used by the South Sudanese
government of blocking aid to opposition-held areas.

Displaced people have, meanwhile, found themselves unsafe even in the
places where they sought refuge. In recent days, many of those who
settled in Akobo have travelled to neighbouring Ethiopia, following
the government’s evacuation order.

The order also applied to humanitarian groups and the UN peacekeeping
operation in South Sudan (UNMISS), though the mission said on 9 March
that it would not comply.

Critics say the SSPDF wants to clear Akobo of witnesses. It follows
reports of atrocities in Jonglei, including government-aligned
fighters killing civilians after luring them from their homes under
the pretense of registering them for food aid.

SSPDF operations in Jonglei and elsewhere are unfolding in areas home
to Nuer communities, which have historically provided a grassroots
base for the predominantly Nuer SPLM-IO as well as for Nuer militias
known as the White Army that are involved in current opposition
offensives.

In interviews with The New Humanitarian, SPLM-IO officials described
SSPDF operations as constituting ethnic cleansing of Nuer communities,
citing hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric from military leaders.

“When we arrive there, don’t spare an elderly person, don’t spare a
chicken, don’t spare a house or anything,” said Johnson Olony, an
SSPDF official and Shilluk militia leader, referring to the Jonglei
operations.

Analysts say the role of forces like Olony’s and White Army militias
is creating a major threat to the country’s social fabric, since it
risks fusing national political disputes with rivalries at the local,
communal level.

Weaknesses on both sides
Before the fighting in Jonglei, clashes were mainly concentrated in
neighbouring Upper Nile state, where White Army militias had overrun
an SSPDF garrison in Nasir last March leading the army to launch major
operations.

White Army militias operate independently to the SPLM-IO and have
their own grievances against the government and SSPDF. But Kiir blamed
the Nasir incident on Machar – many say incorrectly – and charged him
with treason.

Subequent operations in Upper Nile – documented by The New
Humanitarian – saw the SSPDF and Ugandan forces launch brutal airaids,
while the UN inquiry detailed sexual violence by the army and its
abduction of boys and young men to fight.

Before the Upper Nile fighting, the SSPDF had also launched various
offensives in 2024 and 2025 to wrest control of opposition-controlled
checkpoints, in a further sign that the recent escalation did not come
out of nowhere.

One ruling party official framed the current tensions as a
continuation of a conflict that never ended. “In many ways, the
agreement froze the conflict rather than resolving it,” the official
said, requesting their name not be used.

Despite facing airaids, the SPLM-IO has talked up the success of its
operations, at one stage instructing its forces to advance on the
capital, Juba, from multiple directions and calling on elements from
within the SSPDF to join them.

In reality, however, the SPLM-IO and broader opposition are weaker
than they were during the last civil war, in part because Kiir has
used the peace process to strengthen his grip on power and court
opposition splits and defections.

For its part, the government is bolstered by Uganda, but it faces
problems: SSPDF troops are largely unpaid, and Kiir’s ability to
maintain loyalty among elites has been undermined by reduced oil
exports from pipelines running through Sudan.

The SPLM is meanwhile riven by internal tensions as the ageing and
ailing president repeatedly fires senior officials and implements
reshuffles viewed as bypassing established structures and
consolidating his authority vis-à-vis potential successors.

Tensions were particularly high when businessman Benjamin Bol Mel –
who is not from the SPLM old guard – was promoted to second vice
president and widely seen as being groomed as Kiir’s successor.

Kiir later dismissed Bol Mel and reappointed James Wani Igga as second
vice president, but political insiders say that decision also caused
frustration among certain sections of the fractious ruling party.

Other controversial moves by Kiir include last year’s dismissal of
powerful intelligence chief Akol Koor Kuc; the appointment of Kiir’s
daughter, Adut Salva Kiir, as a special advisor; and a recent
anti-corruption drive viewed as politically motivated.

Delayed elections
Analysts and human rights activists who spoke to The New Humanitarian
– often requesting anonymity – mostly argued that the peace deal
remains the only political framework capable of stopping the war from
spiralling further.

Yet many also view the deal as part of the problem, incentivising
elites – none of whom are democratically elected – to scramble for
positions within power-sharing arrangements and retain armed forces
for political influence and leverage.

The opposition says the peace deal was “abrogated” by Machar’s arrest,
and have long complained of Kiir undermining power-sharing by
dismissing their officials and replacing them with picks from the
ruling party or splinter opposition factions.

Critics say Kiir has also underfunded efforts to create a unified
national army because he does not want opposition soldiers integrated
into the military, despite this being a central pillar of the peace
agreement.

The agreement also called for elections to be held at the end of a
transitional period in 2023, but this has been repeatedly extended.
Polls are now scheduled for December, though it remains unclear
whether they will take place.

“Security concerns around Jonglei are becoming a central obstacle to
the 2026 elections, with rising tensions potentially providing
justification for delaying the vote,” said South Sudanese political
analyst Atem Simon Mabior.

In Akobo, Rac Joseph Yal, assistant bishop of the episcopal church,
urged leaders to end the violence. “The people are suffering,” he
said. “We need peace and reconciliation for the sake of this nation.”

Edited by Philip Kleinfeld.

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2026/03/12/south-sudan-power-sharing-collapse-drives-violence-mass-displacement

END
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