Sudan’s descent into chaos sets stage for al-Qaida return
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John Ashworth
May 11, 2024, 12:24:12 AMMay 11
to Group
Sudan’s descent into chaos sets stage for al-Qaida to make a return to
historic stronghold
Sara Harmouch
The Conversation, May 10, 2024
“Sudan’s moment has come; chaos is our chance to sow the seeds of
jihad,” warned Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, a high-ranking al-Qaida leader,
in an October 2022 manifesto.
His words may have seemed premature at the time, but a year of brutal
civil war has now plunged Sudan into the kind of chaos in which
terrorist groups thrive. The risk of al-Qaida gaining ground in Sudan
is now very real and imperils, I believe, not only the country itself
but also regional – and potentially global – security.
In April 2023, fighting broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed
Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, creating a power
vacuum that extremists are eager to fill.
At the same time, the Rapid Support Forces – a group that developed
under and was once allied to Sudan’s al-Qaida-harboring former
president Omar al-Bashir – has been solidifying its grip in strategic
areas such as Darfur and southern Khartoum.
Indeed, both the paramilitary group and the armed forces have been
accused of recruiting Islamist fighters, fueling fears that the civil
war will – regardless of the victor – prove a toehold for extremist
groups.
As a defense policy researcher and counterterrorism expert, I’m
concerned that Sudan risks becoming an al-Qaida stronghold – and a
potential base for orchestrating attacks on the U.S. and its allies. A
potential Rapid Support Forces takeover in Sudan could mirror pre-9/11
Afghanistan, where Taliban control facilitated al-Qaida’s rise.
Al-Qaida members, seeking opportunities to achieve what they couldn’t
in the Middle East, are already heeding calls to head to Sudan.
Decades of turmoil and extremism
Sudan’s civil strife predates the current fighting by decades. It
ignited in 1989 when al-Bashir seized power, aligning the nation with
radical Islamist ideologies. He imposed Sharia law and in 1991
sheltered al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. Under al-Bashir’s regime,
bin Laden established training camps and expanded al-Qaida’s financial
network, laying the groundwork for the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Facing international sanctions over its support of terrorism, Sudan
expelled bin Laden in 1996.
But al-Bashir’s sponsorship of the Janjaweed militia group, the
architects of the 2003 Darfur genocide, further solidified his
alignment with Islamist extremists. Under scrutiny, al-Bashir
rebranded the Janjaweed as the Rapid Support Forces in 2013,
appointing ex-Janjaweed member Mohammed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo as its
leader and retaining their brutal tactics.
The 2021 coup, orchestrated by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the
Sudanese Armed Forces and Hemeti of the Rapid Support Forces, soon
devolved into a power struggle between the two men, igniting Sudan’s
current conflict.
Today, with Hemeti at the helm, the paramilitary group continues its
oppressive campaign in West Darfur, engaging in alleged ethnic
cleansing against the Indigenous Masalit people.
Meanwhile, a prison attack in April 2023, which the Sudanese army
blamed on Rapid Support Forces rebels, facilitated the escape of
al-Bashir’s allies, though the former president remains hospitalized
under guard.
Sudan at the heart of jihad
With conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the West might
be overlooking the crisis in Sudan and the potential it holds for
al-Qaida, a group that has long harbored ambitions of returning to
Sudan.
Despite his expulsion, bin Laden continued to emphasize Sudan’s
importance in his plans for global jihad. This was evident in his 2006
audiotape and diary entries in which he referred to Sudan as a pivotal
operational base.
A 2023 publication by key al-Qaida figure Ibrahim al-Qussi titled
“Fragments from al-Qaida’s History” revealed that bin Laden directed
an investment of US$12 million solely for jihad in Sudan, highlighting
the region’s ongoing relevance to al-Qaida’s objectives.
Sudan’s appeal to extremists extends beyond its connections to bin
Laden. Strategically bridging North and sub-Saharan Africa, Sudan is a
key location for Islamist extremists aiming to expand their influence
across the region.
After the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s
return to power, al-Qaida reestablished a presence in the country,
reopening training camps and madrassas.
Well before that, however, al-Qaida had long since evolved from a
centralized organization in Afghanistan into a decentralized network
with global affiliates – from the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian
subcontinent all the way to sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel.
Historic ties, new ambitions
Recent developments highlight al-Qaida’s increased focus on Sudan and
are driven by detailed expansion plans of Sudanese al-Qaida leader Abu
Hudhaifa al-Sudani. A former bin Laden associate with a notorious
background in Afghanistan and Iraq, al-Sudani issued a renewed call
for jihad.
Following the onset of civil war in Sudan, al-Sudani’s 2022 manifesto,
“Now the fighting has come: War messages to the Mujahideen in Sudan,”
not only prescribes a military strategy of targeted strikes and
guerrilla warfare across Sudan but also a vision for jihad extending
from Dongola in the country’s north to Darfur in its south, with
Khartoum as the command center.
Al-Qaida further articulated its threat in a message on the 22nd
anniversary of the 2001 attacks on the U.S., promising, “It is only a
matter of time before the next strike eclipses the horrors of 9/11.”
This declaration, combined with the group’s escalating presence in
conflict zones such as Niger and Libya, actively positions them to
target U.S. interests worldwide. Indeed, a 2022 United Nations report
indicated that al-Qaida was planning high-profile attacks, possibly at
sea.
What an extremist takeover would mean
Al-Qaida’s potential in resource-rich Sudan should not be
underestimated. Historically, the group’s operations from
resource-limited Afghanistan were devastating; in Sudan, with its
abundance of oil, gold and fertile land, their capabilities could be
significantly magnified.
Sudan provides a lucrative base for whoever holds power. Forging links
with both sides of the civil war would no doubt be of huge financial
benefit to al-Qaida should either side prevail, in the same way
al-Bashir’s rule was a generation earlier.
And Sudan’s Red Sea access makes it potentially an even greater threat
than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
Gaining a Sudanese stronghold could empower al-Qaida affiliates across
Yemen, Somalia and the Sahel region, exacerbating regional conflicts
and threatening crucial Red Sea trade routes. Interestingly, a United
Nations July 2022 report revealed that al-Qaida’s Yemen branch had
been boosting its maritime capabilities.
The resurgence of al-Qaida capabilities in the region could lead to
increased piracy, militarized blockades and unregulated arms flow,
escalating regional tensions and causing broader geopolitical unrest.
But as the United States redirects resources and attention to wars in
Europe and the Middle East and countering China, Sudan has seemingly
slipped down its priority list. Complicating matters further, U.S.
responses are tangled in the conflicting interests of its Gulf allies
supporting various factions in Sudan’s civil war.
Strapped by resource limitations, overwhelmed by competing threats and
weary from decades in the Middle East, the U.S. is poorly positioned
to counter al-Qaida’s expansion into Sudan.
But as Sudan inches closer to becoming a global terror hub, the stakes
couldn’t be higher. Historical examples, such as Afghanistan’s fall to
the Taliban and the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria,
illustrate the potential costs.
https://theconversation.com/sudans-descent-into-chaos-sets-stage-for-al-qaida-to-make-a-return-to-historic-stronghold-228954
END
______________________
John Ashworth
ashwor...@gmail.com
+254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile, WhatsApp and Signal)
PO Box 403 - 00206, Kiserian, Kenya
historic stronghold
Sara Harmouch
The Conversation, May 10, 2024
“Sudan’s moment has come; chaos is our chance to sow the seeds of
jihad,” warned Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, a high-ranking al-Qaida leader,
in an October 2022 manifesto.
His words may have seemed premature at the time, but a year of brutal
civil war has now plunged Sudan into the kind of chaos in which
terrorist groups thrive. The risk of al-Qaida gaining ground in Sudan
is now very real and imperils, I believe, not only the country itself
but also regional – and potentially global – security.
In April 2023, fighting broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed
Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, creating a power
vacuum that extremists are eager to fill.
At the same time, the Rapid Support Forces – a group that developed
under and was once allied to Sudan’s al-Qaida-harboring former
president Omar al-Bashir – has been solidifying its grip in strategic
areas such as Darfur and southern Khartoum.
Indeed, both the paramilitary group and the armed forces have been
accused of recruiting Islamist fighters, fueling fears that the civil
war will – regardless of the victor – prove a toehold for extremist
groups.
As a defense policy researcher and counterterrorism expert, I’m
concerned that Sudan risks becoming an al-Qaida stronghold – and a
potential base for orchestrating attacks on the U.S. and its allies. A
potential Rapid Support Forces takeover in Sudan could mirror pre-9/11
Afghanistan, where Taliban control facilitated al-Qaida’s rise.
Al-Qaida members, seeking opportunities to achieve what they couldn’t
in the Middle East, are already heeding calls to head to Sudan.
Decades of turmoil and extremism
Sudan’s civil strife predates the current fighting by decades. It
ignited in 1989 when al-Bashir seized power, aligning the nation with
radical Islamist ideologies. He imposed Sharia law and in 1991
sheltered al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. Under al-Bashir’s regime,
bin Laden established training camps and expanded al-Qaida’s financial
network, laying the groundwork for the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Facing international sanctions over its support of terrorism, Sudan
expelled bin Laden in 1996.
But al-Bashir’s sponsorship of the Janjaweed militia group, the
architects of the 2003 Darfur genocide, further solidified his
alignment with Islamist extremists. Under scrutiny, al-Bashir
rebranded the Janjaweed as the Rapid Support Forces in 2013,
appointing ex-Janjaweed member Mohammed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo as its
leader and retaining their brutal tactics.
The 2021 coup, orchestrated by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the
Sudanese Armed Forces and Hemeti of the Rapid Support Forces, soon
devolved into a power struggle between the two men, igniting Sudan’s
current conflict.
Today, with Hemeti at the helm, the paramilitary group continues its
oppressive campaign in West Darfur, engaging in alleged ethnic
cleansing against the Indigenous Masalit people.
Meanwhile, a prison attack in April 2023, which the Sudanese army
blamed on Rapid Support Forces rebels, facilitated the escape of
al-Bashir’s allies, though the former president remains hospitalized
under guard.
Sudan at the heart of jihad
With conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the West might
be overlooking the crisis in Sudan and the potential it holds for
al-Qaida, a group that has long harbored ambitions of returning to
Sudan.
Despite his expulsion, bin Laden continued to emphasize Sudan’s
importance in his plans for global jihad. This was evident in his 2006
audiotape and diary entries in which he referred to Sudan as a pivotal
operational base.
A 2023 publication by key al-Qaida figure Ibrahim al-Qussi titled
“Fragments from al-Qaida’s History” revealed that bin Laden directed
an investment of US$12 million solely for jihad in Sudan, highlighting
the region’s ongoing relevance to al-Qaida’s objectives.
Sudan’s appeal to extremists extends beyond its connections to bin
Laden. Strategically bridging North and sub-Saharan Africa, Sudan is a
key location for Islamist extremists aiming to expand their influence
across the region.
After the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s
return to power, al-Qaida reestablished a presence in the country,
reopening training camps and madrassas.
Well before that, however, al-Qaida had long since evolved from a
centralized organization in Afghanistan into a decentralized network
with global affiliates – from the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian
subcontinent all the way to sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel.
Historic ties, new ambitions
Recent developments highlight al-Qaida’s increased focus on Sudan and
are driven by detailed expansion plans of Sudanese al-Qaida leader Abu
Hudhaifa al-Sudani. A former bin Laden associate with a notorious
background in Afghanistan and Iraq, al-Sudani issued a renewed call
for jihad.
Following the onset of civil war in Sudan, al-Sudani’s 2022 manifesto,
“Now the fighting has come: War messages to the Mujahideen in Sudan,”
not only prescribes a military strategy of targeted strikes and
guerrilla warfare across Sudan but also a vision for jihad extending
from Dongola in the country’s north to Darfur in its south, with
Khartoum as the command center.
Al-Qaida further articulated its threat in a message on the 22nd
anniversary of the 2001 attacks on the U.S., promising, “It is only a
matter of time before the next strike eclipses the horrors of 9/11.”
This declaration, combined with the group’s escalating presence in
conflict zones such as Niger and Libya, actively positions them to
target U.S. interests worldwide. Indeed, a 2022 United Nations report
indicated that al-Qaida was planning high-profile attacks, possibly at
sea.
What an extremist takeover would mean
Al-Qaida’s potential in resource-rich Sudan should not be
underestimated. Historically, the group’s operations from
resource-limited Afghanistan were devastating; in Sudan, with its
abundance of oil, gold and fertile land, their capabilities could be
significantly magnified.
Sudan provides a lucrative base for whoever holds power. Forging links
with both sides of the civil war would no doubt be of huge financial
benefit to al-Qaida should either side prevail, in the same way
al-Bashir’s rule was a generation earlier.
And Sudan’s Red Sea access makes it potentially an even greater threat
than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
Gaining a Sudanese stronghold could empower al-Qaida affiliates across
Yemen, Somalia and the Sahel region, exacerbating regional conflicts
and threatening crucial Red Sea trade routes. Interestingly, a United
Nations July 2022 report revealed that al-Qaida’s Yemen branch had
been boosting its maritime capabilities.
The resurgence of al-Qaida capabilities in the region could lead to
increased piracy, militarized blockades and unregulated arms flow,
escalating regional tensions and causing broader geopolitical unrest.
But as the United States redirects resources and attention to wars in
Europe and the Middle East and countering China, Sudan has seemingly
slipped down its priority list. Complicating matters further, U.S.
responses are tangled in the conflicting interests of its Gulf allies
supporting various factions in Sudan’s civil war.
Strapped by resource limitations, overwhelmed by competing threats and
weary from decades in the Middle East, the U.S. is poorly positioned
to counter al-Qaida’s expansion into Sudan.
But as Sudan inches closer to becoming a global terror hub, the stakes
couldn’t be higher. Historical examples, such as Afghanistan’s fall to
the Taliban and the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria,
illustrate the potential costs.
https://theconversation.com/sudans-descent-into-chaos-sets-stage-for-al-qaida-to-make-a-return-to-historic-stronghold-228954
END
______________________
John Ashworth
ashwor...@gmail.com
+254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile, WhatsApp and Signal)
PO Box 403 - 00206, Kiserian, Kenya
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