War in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal States

[John Ashworth]

Attached please find a report from the Small Arms Survey entitled
"Making the Enemy: The War in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el
Ghazal States" by Joshua Craze, December 2025.

"Clashes in South Sudan’s Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western Equatoria
are not a breakdown of order; they fulfil a political purpose. This
disorder has enabled President Salva Kiir’s regime to weaken its
rivals in Juba, while fracturing opposition forces on the ground."

Key findings

- Government forces have provoked conflict in Western Equatoria and
Western Bahr el Ghazal states. Disorder has enabled President Salva
Kiir’s regime to inflict political defeats on its opponents in Juba,
while fracturing opposition forces on the ground.
- In Western Equatoria, Kiir’s regime has outsourced its
counterinsurgency to an Azande militia. The Azande Ani Kpi Gbi (AAKG)
includes fighters from the Central African Republic (CAR) and the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is engaged in a zero-sum
conflict with Balanda forces led by Alfred Futuyo Karaba of the Sudan
People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).
- The opposition has popular support in both states. It is hamstrung
by an acute lack of materiel and is resigned to fighting a drawn-out
guerrilla war against government forces with aerial superiority.
- Although populations in both states are weary of war, elite
competition risks drawing them back into protracted conflict.

https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/making-enemy-war-western-equatoria-and-western-bahr-el-ghazal-states

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