Oil in the Crosshairs

[John Ashworth]

1. Oil in the Crosshairs

Environment, Peace, and Security Implications from the War in Sudan
and Spillover Effects on South Sudan

NB: This report contains photos and charts which do not appear here
but can be viewed by going to the website link at the end.

June 4, 2024
PAX

Large smoke plumes blackened the sky over Khartoum with intense
shelling of the airport that hit locations storing fuel, including
aircrafts, and tankers in April 2023. As the war intensifies over the
following weeks and months, so does the human toll of the civil war in
Sudan. The ongoing fighting throughout the country has led to large
numbers of civilians being killed and wounded, massive displacement,
and has been described by the United Nations Special Envoy as ‘hell on
earth’. The use of explosive weapons in populated areas in Sudan is
worsening civilian suffering and damaging vital water infrastructure
and services that people depend on. Ongoing monitoring from groups
such as Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) and the US-led
Conflict Observatory is demonstrating the severity of the humanitarian
impacts and specific urban or rural destruction caused by the
fighting.

Many remember the collective hope of 2019 as citizens took to the
streets to call for a peaceful transition of power from the previous
regime to a civilian-led administration. But with the start of the
fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Abdel fattah al
Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces under control of Mohamed Hamdan
Dagalo, known as Hmedti, the country plummeted into another bloody
civil war, with other armed groups such the Sudan Liberation Movement
and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North joining the fight.
The current conflict not only impacts Sudan as a whole but has larger
regional security risks as damages to Sudan’s oil infrastructure is
leading to a serious socio-economic crisis in the neighbouring South
Sudan, that depends on crude oil exports flowing through two large
pipelines towards the Port of Sudan.

On March 16th, 2024, Sudan declared a ‘force majeure’, after fighting
and maintenance issues resulted in an oil spill and clogged oil
pipelines roughly 100 kilometres south of Khartoum, largely halting
all oil exports through the Port Sudan oil Petrodar pipeline from the
Melut oil fields in the northeast of South Sudan. This pipeline is
responsible for 60-70% of South Sudan’s oil exports, making this a
vital lifeline for export revenues. Though some exports have since
resumed through the Greater Nile Pipeline that is connected to the
Unity oil fields in the central north of South Sudan, this incident
and its potential fall-out underscores the fragility of the fossil
fuel industry in warzones and its broader environmental security
implications. In particular in contested border areas such as Abyi,
several armed groups are aiming for control over the oil fields, which
can spark further border conflict and lead to the potential
involvement of the South Sudanese armed forces. The diminishing oil
revenues will have serious implications for the political stability in
South Sudan, and in the long term, the crumbling fossil fuel
infrastructure will bring additional environmental risks to both Sudan
and South Sudan.

With the war raging on, in particular around oil fields, and wider
implications from pollution, agricultural decline and mass
displacement, several Sudanese groups and experts are already calling
for an environmental assessment of the war and the implications for
public health by setting up the Sudan War Environmental Consequences
Observatory (SWECO). This promising initiative should support rapid
identification and monitoring of conflict damages with the aim to
‘restore and protect the environment, address social challenges and
promote sustainable development in post-war contexts’.

In this research blog PAX will provide a brief analysis of the
political and environmental implications of the war on Sudanese and
South Sudanese oil infrastructure and put forth recommendations for
addressing these concerns for all stakeholders. This analysis is built
upon open-source data collection conducted in collaboration with the
Center for Information Resilience (CIR) and satellite imagery from
relevant affected locations provided by MAXAR, Planet, NASA and the
European Space Agency.

Key Points

- Massive fires and localised pollution resulting from targeted
attacks on the Khartoum refinery and other fuel storage facilities in
and near the city by all warring parties, that is affecting oil
production.
- Other oil facilities and pipelines in Sudan under the control of
both the Rapid Support Forces and Sudan Armed Forces are attacked,
resulting in localised environmental damage and the burning of large
volumes of fossil fuels from storage tanks or oil wells.
- Numerous oil spills along the main Greater Nile and Petrodar oil
pipelines running from the Sudanese and South Sudanese oil fields
towards the main refinery and Port of Sudan oil terminal as a result
of improper maintenance and oversight. This is causing localised
environmental pollution from crude oil contamination that could affect
soils and nearby ecosystems.

Risk of both increasing political instability and environmental crisis
in South Sudan following the shutdown of the Petrodar Pipeline, which
pumps oil from South Sudan to the Port of Sudan, by the RSF, on March
16th, 2024. Unconfirmed reports indicate interest in the potential
construction of open-air oil pits in South Sudan’s oil pits for
temporary storage of crude oil, in the absence of proper oil tanker
farms. If this will be implemented, there are serious concerns over
the safety of those constructions and the potential environmental
risks they pose in a region faced with worsened flooding.

War and Sudan’s Fossil Fuel Industry

The intense fighting taking place in both rural and urban environments
and associated attacks on and damage to fossil fuel infrastructure not
only have massive humanitarian impacts but also come with wider public
health and environmental concerns. Both warring parties seek to
control key pipelines, pumping stations, and refineries. When they
are unable to gain control, they target these locations to prevent the
opponents from effectively making use of the oil production and its
revenues. At the same time, the war itself leads to a lack of
infrastructure maintenance, resulting in oil spills throughout the
country.

As an oil producer, Sudan is a small player in the global market, with
a production capacity of roughly 60.000 barrels per day from the oil
fields in the south of the country. Sudan already lost 75% of its oil
revenue following the Independence of South Sudan in 2011 The main
oil blocks are primarily located in Western and Southern Kordofan
[Blocks 6, 2 and 1a], with some minor oil exploration going on in
Southern Darfur, [Block 6], and the Blue and White Nile governorates
[Block 7]. Oil exports bring in an estimated $320 million dollars in
annual revenue, with additional revenue of between $300-400 million
dollars arising from an agreement with South Sudan, as in-kind payment
for oil transit fees. Three large pipelines transport the crude oil to
the Port of Sudan, with a total of 3,700 km of pipeline running
through the country. The first is the 1510 km long Greater Nile
Pipelines (GNP), running from oil fields in South Sudan’s Unity State,
also connecting to the Heglig oil fields in the south of Sudan, making
this the longest oil pipeline in Africa. The second is the West Nile
or Petrodar pipeline, transporting oil from the Melut Basin in the
Upper Nile States in South Sudan, with a length of 1472 km. Lastly,
the Petroenergy pipeline from Block 6, connecting with the GNP, has a
length of 716 km.

Sudan has two main refineries for crude oil processing for the
domestic market. For the southern oil fields, the El Obeid refinery in
Kordofan, with a capacity of 15.000 barrels a day, mainly produces
gasoline and heavy fuel oil for industrial machinery. North of
Khartoum is the Khartoum Refinery Company, also known as the Al Jili
Refinery, with a capacity of 100.000 barrels a day, and half owned by
the Sudanese government and the China National Petroleum Corporation
(CNPC). There is still also the decommissioned Port Sudan refinery
south of the city, and the large oil tanker terminal at the centre of
the port used for the storage and export of crude oil.

Prior to the outbreak of the conflict, there were already widespread
environmental issues stemming from weak environmental oversight and
enforcement of regulations. The oil field exploration itself resulted
in severe forest loss to clear areas for oil drilling, while there
were documented structural issues in recent years from lack of
maintenance and dumping of wastewater. The resulting pollution of
water sources and soils from spills raised public health concerns
among affected communities.

Fanning the Flames: Attacks on Oil Infrastructure

During the opening week of the battle of Khartoum, artillery strikes
targeted multiple aircraft on the airport tarmac, the adjacent
administrative buildings, and several kerosine fuel trucks that all
went down in a blaze. Ongoing battles in and around the city also
damaged industrial facilities and resulted in burning fuel tanks at
several locations in the Yarmouk industrial district, including the
Sudanese Petroleum Pipelines Company and nearby smaller tanks storing
flammable material. South of the city, shelling hit the Savola Oil
Company, causing a fire in some of the tanks storing fuel, while RSF
troops were quick to take over key oil infrastructure east of
Khartoum. The humanitarian situation worsened as strikes also hit
Water, Sanitation and Health Services (WASH) infrastructure, limiting
civilian access to clean water, as documented by Human Rights Watch
and ACAPS.

The RSF moved quickly after the outbreak of the fighting in April 2023
to take over the Al Jilili refinery north of Khartoum, a key asset for
oil revenues and holding control over the income from South Sudan’s
crude oil exports. Yet, the refinery also ended up in the crosshairs
of the SAF. Repeated strikes hit the refinery from November 2023
onwards, according to the RSF, though the SAF claims there were also
multiple incidents due to the lack of unskilled personnel. The attacks
by SAF stepped up in May 2024, with some initial damage to pipelines
reported on May 21, and airstrikes on May 22 that resulted in several
large oil tanks being hit, causing a massive fire that burned for
days, with intense air pollution seen on optical imagery and air
pollution sensors.

According to the Sudanese oil minister, the country lost over 210,000
barrels of crude oil as a result of the damages and would need $5
billion dollars for recovery of the oil sector. Satellite imagery
analysis by PAX shows that at least 27 crude oil, LPG, and refined
products tanks on site have been destroyed and more are likely
rendered non-operational.

The combined attacks on the refinery in the period November 2023 to
February 2024 caused massive fossil fuel burning, igniting four
210,000-barrel capacity crude storage tanks, while airstrikes in May
2024 caused two other large oil tanks to completely burn down,
resulting in a massive fire that burned for two days and was visible
on satellite imagery. At least 20 smaller tanks of crude oil and
refined products were also damaged and destroyed at the refinery since
the oil facility ended up in the cross hairs, though the exact fuel
amount stored at impact is unclear. Remote sensing data from the ESA
Sentinel-5P Tropomi sensor analysed by PAX shows a flare-up of
nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the atmosphere after strikes that hit the
larger oil depots, while new research indicated that overall NO2
pollution levels in Khartoum and from the refinery sharply decreased
due to the massive displacement of people out of the city, factory
shutdowns, and reduced traffic.

In the south of Sudan, open-source research by CIR and remote sensing
data confirmed damage to oil facilities in the Sufyan oil field due to
fighting around oil fields in Darfur. Another issue that contributed
to the increase of oil spills, is the absence of skilled personnel and
maintenance. This allegedly resulted in spills at oil fields, as was
noted online by people posting images of an oil spill at the Jake oil
fields in South Kordofan, though this could not be verified with
satellite imagery. The RSF captured several oil fields in Darfur in
early November 2023 from the SAF. The fight for control damaged at
least three fuel storage tanks at the Sufyan oil facilities. In late
November, RSF forces also took over the Billa oil Central Processing
Facility in southern Kordofan, telling engineers to continue their
work and ensuring their control over the fossil fuel industry.

At the oil fields in East Darfur, other incidents were reported from
spills and subsequent burning of oil. On April 22nd, a local spill was
visible on Planet imagery at one of the oil extraction sites at the
Zarqa Um Hadid oil field, with NASA VIIRS and optical imagery from
early May confirming a fire on site, as well as social media footage
showing an ongoing fire at the specific locations. According to the
Sudan Post, unidentified persons set fire to one of the largest oil
extraction points, causing the blaze. However, as stated earlier,
satellite imagery indicated that there was already a spill that
occurred at the site in April 2024. High-resolution imagery from
Airbus from April 11th, 2024 before the fire shows ongoing activities
at this location, making it a potential target for criminal groups.
Further information is needed to confirm the cause of the fire and who
is responsible.

Oil spills and open-air oil pits

With reduced oversight and control from security forces, it is
expected that individuals and criminal groups will tap into the oil
lines, often with limited technical know-how which can result in
spills. With the use of open-source reporting and earth observation
data from the ESA Sentinel-2 L2A and NASA Landsat-8 optical sensor,
the pipelines were scanned and at least six small and larger spills
were found along the main oil pipelines from Kordofan and the South
Sudan oil fields to the Port of Sudan, and two cases of an open oil
reservoir constructed to capture crude oil from the pipeline.

Several spills in northern Kordofan are seen near oil pumpings
stations and along the Greater Nile Pipeline, the largest oil spill
range over 1.8 km long that started in August 2023 at the pumping
station with an unknown cause. South of this location, there was
another large spill detected, possibly caused by oil thieves trying to
tap into the pipeline, causing a massive 1.5km spill in the middle of
the desert in November 2023. Other smaller spills were detected at
the oil pipeline northwest of El-Obeid, another oil hub for the oil
fields in the south of Sudan, where a small refinery is still
operational. These leaks started already in June 2023, and remained
relatively contained in and near the location of origin, and seemed
also to be linked with either attempted oil theft, or lack of
maintenance causing a rupture.

In February 2024, the spill, visible on Planet imagery, and
subsequent ‘force majeure’ that stopped the oil export from South
Sudan through the Petrodar pipeline also caused a new practice, namely
the formation of open-air oil pits. The largest pit is constructed
south of the Khartoum refinery, with crude being tapped from the
pipeline, and reported on by BlueBell, a group of Sudanese geospatial
experts. These open-airs have a current size of roughly 75000m2 of
crude oil being stored in unsafe conditions, and new earth walls
indicate that the location is still expanding. The satellite imagery
indicates that tanker trucks are using the ponds to load crude oil for
transport. Similar practices also seem to have started in April 2024
in the White Nile region of Sudan, as seen on Planet imagery.

South Sudan’s Halt of Oil Export and Environmental Implications

South Sudan is a large crude oil exporter and its fossil fuel industry
has been a source of dispute before the succession from Sudan,
including grave human rights violations committed by armed groups with
the support of international oil companies to control the oil field,
as documented by PAX as part of the work on the oil industry since
2001. The South Sudanese oil industry has an estimated production
capacity of 160.000 barrels per day, but dropped to 140.000 in 2023,
and has an estimated oil reserve of 5 billion barrels still in the
ground. Prior to the political instability in 2013, the country’s oil
blocks produced 320.000 barrels per day. The oil revenues are stated
to provide more than 85% of the country’s revenues, making this the
main source of income for the government, which is using the oil
revenues to buy political support and stay in power. The majority of
the South Sudanese population does not profit from the oil income and
depends on agriculture and pastoralism as a livelihood. The weak
governance in South Sudan, especially in the oil industry, also has
serious environmental implications. For decades, the oil fields have
been a known source of pollution from spills caused by a lack of
implementation of environmental regulations, improper maintenance,
illegal tapping into oil lines, and other types of accidents. Local
environmental groups have long called for a solution to these
concerns, but the government’s long-announced environmental
assessment, as part of the 2012 Petroleum Act, has yet to be carried
out. The environmental and health consequences continue to go
unrecorded, as researchers and journalists struggle to access affected
areas and face threats, while oil companies withhold operational
transparency.

Meanwhile, South Sudan struggles with grave and worsening humanitarian
consequences of the seasonal flooding, displacing over 1 million
people annually. These floods seem to be getting more erratic and
extreme due to the climate crisis. This also has serious implications
for South Sudan’s oil infrastructure, as PAX demonstrated with
extensive remote sensing analysis in 2023. The findings show that the
major oil fields in Unity and Upper Nile State, including oil
wastewater pits, chemical storage facilities, and drilling wells are
getting flooded. This flooding could contaminate land outside the oil
fields, including areas for pastoralists, as well as affected water
sources such as drinking wells.

Growing Environmental Insecurity From an Export Shutdown

With the oil export through the Sudan pipeline coming to a halt, South
Sudan is now on the brink of a serious political crisis. Oil revenues
will cease, leaving the political elite without the financial
resources to maintain their political support. As salaries cannot be
paid to civil servants, the country could soon fall into chaos.

This crisis also raises a pressing environmental concern: how will
this affect oil operations? In the long term, the crisis also raises
questions over South Sudan’s fossil fuel dependency. To start with the
former, South Sudan does not currently have sufficient storage
capacity for the daily extraction of crude oil, but to keep pressure
on the oil wells to ensure the continuation of extraction, oil needs
to be pumped up. This means the oil industry will run out of storage
capacity soon, and will either have to shut down wells, or rapidly
develop a plan for, and financing of, safe construction of sufficient
oil storage tanks. There are already unconfirmed reports that oil
companies will construct a large open-air storage pit for pumped-up
crude oil near the oil fields in Unity and Upper Nile State. This
could potentially result in a massive environmental catastrophe, in
case one of the reservoirs breaks down, considering the weak state of
the oil industry and the limited capacity and expertise to carry out
such a massive endeavour.

The unpredictability of the increasing and intensifying floods
exacerbates the risks posed by these ad-hoc constructions. In case of
a rupture or flooding of such an open-air crude oil pit, hundreds of
thousands of litres of crude oil could contaminate nearby soil, the
White Nile, and the larger Sudd wetland, one of the largest
UNESCO-protected areas.

The broader question also strikes at the heart of the ruling class’s
fragile fossil fuel dependency. Could this be an opportunity to look
for an alternative economic path that leaves fossil fuel in the
ground? Some experts have put forward strong arguments to begin this
search for alternatives, both in light of reducing fossil fuel
extraction and its climate impacts, as well as reducing a resource
that is the root of political insecurity, as groups aim to control oil
fields for their resources. Most of the population in South Sudan do
not share in the wealth from the oil extraction and are largely
dependent on humanitarian aid and international loans that foot the
bills for basic services in the country. The global call for
decarbonisation could be important to start the debate on rearranging
the political economy of South Sudan to benefit the population and
move away from its dependency on oil exports.

Yet, amidst the current political conditions and state of affairs,
analysts predict that South Sudan, alongside Libya and Iraq, is likely
to be one of the last countries to phase out fossil fuel extraction.
This entails there are hardly any viable alternatives for a
sustainable economy away from fossil fuels that provide other income
sources. A new $13 billion dollar loan between South Sudan and a
United Arab Emirates-based company announced in April 2024 indicates
that the government is in search of money using their oil reserves as
a guarantee, and the news indicated that South Sudan seeks to build
its own oil refinery. This would further weaken its position due to a
dependency on fossil fuels and foreign markets.

Preparing for the Day After Tomorrow

With over a year of fighting in Sudan, the environmental dimensions of
war in the country and spill-over effects in South Sudan highlight the
fragility of fossil fuel infrastructure both as a direct source of
pollution and the wider regional environmental security. The findings
of this Environment and Conflict Alert demonstrate that direct
targeting of oil infrastructure in Sudan created numerous local small
and larger oil pollution hotspots while tapping and lack of
maintenance of the oil pipelines resulted in at least six oil spills
and the construction of unsafe open-air oil reservoirs. Earth
observation with the support of satellite imagery and open-source
monitoring is proven to be an essential tool for tracking these types
of incidents around oil infrastructure. Visualising the consequences
is an effective way to raise awareness of the risks associated with
fossil fuel infrastructure in times of armed conflicts, while the data
can also be used in post-conflict assessment and remediation efforts.

Ongoing monitoring of the oil fields in South Sudan is also needed to
keep track of the potential construction of open-air reservoirs, and
needs additional remote sensing analysis and meteorological and
hydrological modelling to predict the risks if these plans are
executed by the government and the oil industry. This analysis is also
supporting the recent UNEA-6 resolution 6.12, titled ‘Environmental
assistance and recovery in areas affected by armed conflict’ which
requested UNEP to develop technical guidance on monitoring of
environmental damage related to armed conflicts.

The environmental dimensions of the war both in Sudan itself and the
transboundary consequences warrant proper documentation to quantify
the potential impacts, highlight risks to public health and
ecosystems, and facilitate rapid response and recovery efforts that
needed to be addressed when the guns fall silent.

Remote sensing and background research by Wim Zwijnenburg,
zwijn...@paxforpeace.nl

With thanks to Centre for Information Resilience @Cen4infoRes for
their open-source monitoring data, Nadir Hassanein (University of
Khartoum Corporation), Kor Puoch (The Sudd Environment Agency) and
some reviewers who choose to remain anonymous for feedback, Ariel
Ozdemir for editing, Planet for the Skysat images and European Space
Imaging for providing MAXAR imagery. Maps and graphics by Frans van
der Vleuten

https://paxforpeace.nl/news/oil-in-the-crosshairs/

END1

2. South Sudan to construct oil refinery: Nilepet

According to Amour, the new headquarters of the oil and gas company is
expected to be inaugurated by the South Sudanese leader on March 2,
2024.

By Sudans Post March 1, 2024

JUBA – South Sudan is set to construct an oil refinery and a depot
storage facility to ease fuel supply for local consumption, the state
oil entity (Nilpet) said on Wednesday.

Nilepet’s Managing Director, Bernard Amour Makeny met President Salva
Kiir to unveil its strategic plan.

He said he briefed Kiir on a range of issues concerning the oil and
gas industry.

“I was able to clearly outline the strategic plans of Nilepet going
forward after the commissioning of the building,” Amour told reporters
in Juba.

“The next target will obviously be to work on the refinery, work on
storage facility, I will be able to build the right capacity in order
for us to compete in the region and also to compete globally in terms
of oil and gas industry”, he added.

Amour said he assured Kiir of efforts to tackle challenges in the oil
and gas sector.

“In the oil and gas industry, such incidences are expected. It doesn’t
mean it is a total shutdown, it means a period where engineers have to
fix what has been damaged and hopefully the oil flow will be as normal
in coming weeks,” he said.

Amour also briefed Kiir about the progress on pipelines and maintenance works.

The new headquarters of the oil and gas company will inaugurated on
March 2, 2024, he said.

https://www.sudanspost.com/south-sudan-to-construct-oil-refinery-deport-nilepet/

END2

______________________
John Ashworth

ashwor...@gmail.com

+254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile, WhatsApp and Signal)

PO Box 403 - 00206, Kiserian, Kenya