The Future of Hollywood, Movies, and Entertainment

[Chase Roberts]

When's the last time you went to the theater? I am referring not to
the movie theaters, which themselves are experiencing dwindling ticket
sales, but to a theater with a stage?
They do exist, though they are mainly frequented by two types of
audience members. The first are the traditionalists, the connoisseurs,
people who appreciate theater as a unique art form. These people tend
to be middle to upper class, middle age to elderly, and may or may not
bring their families with them, if they have families. These people
often see the same productions over and over, usually by different
theater companies. They may be particular fans of Shakespeare or
Frederico Garcia Lorca, and usually these patrons have a long history
of going to the theater that often began when their parents took them
as children.
The second type of theater patron would be those who are members of
the theater community. They are actors and directors and writers and
stage hands, and their families and friends. These people are often
theater majors in college, and may or may not be making a meager
living in the community. They show up for their brethren's shows, as
much to support each other and for camaraderie as for appreciation for
the art itself.
With the exception of spectacular musical theater shows, which
consistently draw larger crowds than non musical theater, there is a
very small market for stage productions. What money there is to be
made is rarely enough to grow rich on. But this essay is not about
live theater. It is about movies and television. The screen.
Specifically I am considering the future of movies, which I believe is
swiftly going the way of traditional theater; contracting, becoming a
niche, and falling out of the main stream.
Yes, I foresee the era of big budget films ending, and Hollywood
ceasing to exist as a grand centralized location for the film and
television industry. Soon. What will we supplant these forms of media
with? Video games. Posh you say. That could never happen. Video games
are cartoonish and pedestrian, not a true art form like film. But what
happens when a video game becomes more real than film? Virtual reality
role playing scenarios may one day be able to mimic all of our senses
and fool the keenest of participants into confusing them with reality.
Whatever reality is.
In this hypothetical VR, we are active participants, not passive
observers. Artificial intelligence will adjust itself to accommodate
our individual desires, decisions, creations and interactions. In the
future, perhaps, we will all be writers, directors, and actors in our
own epic improvised adventure journeys. This technology, should it
come to fruition, will render obsolete film as the medium of choice
for our entertainment needs. But the question is, what will happen to
the writers, directors, and actors?
For the answer to that, I take as an example a local theater called
Improv West, at which I have taken in a few live shows. While I was in
the audience, I paid attention to who was sitting around me, and
gleaned that most of the people there to watch were also performers,
students of the improv school, or family and friends of performers and
students. Few of the people there were not involved in the comedic
improvisation community in some capacity.
Film, I believe, will be much the same way not to long from now. It
will still be a valued medium by few but not a massive industry as it
is today. It will be valued not by the general public, but by die hard
aficionados, people who are in it for passion for the art form. They
will be accompanied by their family and friends, who themselves may
not be film makers, but who get a thrill out of seeing the work of
someone they are close to. Niche genres like sci fi and horror may
still be valued by certain audiences, as will cult films that posses
unique cinematic qualities. But the era of big budget actioners,
romantic comedies, and dramas with big name actors will probably wane.
So where does that leave Hollywood? I live in Hollywood, and I work in
the film industry, so I am very aware of how many people rely on it as
their means of paying the bills. No matter which way I look at it, I
foresee Hollywood contracting, perhaps slowly at first, but eventually
giving out completely. It is going to become more competitive for jobs
as more people eschew giving up an hour or two of their time to watch
film and television, in favor of chatting with friends online or
making movies of their own using inexpensive high definition
camcorders to upload to YouTube.
It should be noted that spectacle is always going to have it's place.
This is why I think musical theater is still such a strong art form
that can still sell large amounts of tickets. Humans always want to
see crazy spectacular performances live, for the same reason cult
films will always be in vogue, and street performers will always
gather crowds on busy streets. We just like crazy shit. The only
problem in fact is that there isn't enough spectacular groundbreaking
films and stage performances to saturate the market and keep dvd sales
and ticket sales up. It takes an enormous amount of creative output
and some luck to come up with something that is just outrageous enough
to captivate audiences for generations and not be forgotten among the
stacks of okay and semi-decent formula movies. A perfect example of
this would be Blade Runner, a spectacular film of cult status that has
been unmatched by any of Ridley Scott's many directorial efforts since
despite his efforts.
Eventually, even video games may not need writers. Artificial
intelligences may be able to adapt to our unique wants and needs in
real time, making each journey into simulated realities unique and
new. Certainly there will be many movies and films and stage
productions between now and this hypothetical future that experience
success, but all of the evidence indicates that things are moving
towards the general public becoming not consumers of artistic media
but creators themselves. So if you're in Hollywood and have big
dreams, I suggest you make your millions and become famous as soon as
possible, because in the future, we are all celebrities.