Inching Toward the Abyss J.R. Nyquist April 24, 1999

[kabud]

Inching Toward the Abyss
J.R. Nyquist
April 24, 1999
http://web.archive.org/web/20000423224555/www.newsmax.com/articles/?a=1999/4/24/65054
The Western alliance is inching toward an abyss -- either a
confrontation with Russia or a split within NATO. These are the
dangers courted by President Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony
Blair. Their strategy? To bomb the Yugoslav army until it can no
longer offer effective resistance to a ground invasion.

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, his country under bombardment,
is given no alternative but to withdraw the Yugoslav army from
Yugoslav territory, making way for a NATO occupation. Milosevic now
appears willing to accept an international peacekeeping force on
Yugoslav soil, providing that NATO pulls back from the border and
stops the air assault. But President Clinton will not agree to
Milosevic's compromise.

What is wrong with that compromise?

It appears that President Clinton wants the crisis to continue, if not
intensify.

More ominous yet, Washington has played a verbal game with the issue
of using ground forces in Kosovo. That verbal game continues. U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said Wednesday that she does not
"favor the employment of ground forces" in Kosovo. But nonetheless,
she declared it is inappropriate to "rule anything out." Meanwhile,
the White House opposes the use of ground forces "at this time."

As for some other time -- the door is wide open.

Taking a closer look at official NATO statements, it would appear that
a ground invasion is, after all, in the works. On Thursday U.S. and
British officials claimed it was "prudent" to rethink NATO strategy in
Yugoslavia with regard to the employment of ground forces. NATO
Secretary General Javier Solana ordered NATO Commander Wesley Clark to
update the military assessment made in October on the use of NATO
troops in Kosovo.

More striking yet, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has taken the
lead in pushing for an invasion. "Success is the only exit strategy I
am prepared to consider," said Blair on Thursday. "We will not have
succeeded until an international force has entered Kosovo and allowed
the refugees to return to their homes."

Blair further declared that NATO forces would enter Yugoslavia with or
without Milosevic's permission. "We are all internationalists now,"
said Blair, "whether we like it or not."

(In the 1970s the British pop star Elton John released an album
entitled Madman Across the Water. It was supposedly a reference to
President Nixon, who bombed North Vietnam to secure a peace agreement
in 1973. Perhaps an American rock group will now return the favor,
composing a run of song's celebrating Mr. Blair.)

In other Western countries Blair's statements were greeted with
skepticism. One French diplomat took issue with the idea of a
bloodless invasion of Yugoslavia, saying: "The Yugoslav's have
burrowed into the ground. They've got tunnels everywhere."

Analysts say that 75,000 NATO troops would be required to invade
Kosovo, and if the war widened, 200,000 would be required to defeat
the Yugoslav army. Many observers think that Greece, Italy, and
possibly Germany will shrink from the prospect of a widened war.

Meanwhile, Russian mobilizations continue on land and sea. The
Ukrainian and Russian navies are presently engaged in training
exercises. Dozens of warships have been mobilized. At the same time,
Russian diplomats are courting Israel, Greece and France -- feeling
out weaknesses in the West's global position. Russia's ally, President
Jiang Zemin of China, has once again called on the People's Liberation
Army to brace for a possible war. There is "regional tension and
unstable elements," he said earlier this month. "The world is not
safe."

If NATO takes its cue from the Madman Across the Water -- Tony Blair
-- there might be a third world war, as Boris Yeltsin warned. If NATO
countries like Greece and Italy oppose Blair's plan of war the Western
alliance could suffer an irreparable split. What will happen next?
Nobody knows. Let us hope that cooler heads than Blair's will prevail,
as Washington's doubletalk resolves itself into a sweet song of peace.