Russia and China: A Pattern of Belligerence Part 1:War Preparations Continue in Russia and Part 2; J.R. Nyquist

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Russia and China: A Pattern of Belligerence – Part 1

J.R. Nyquist March 23, 1999
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War Preparations Continue in Russia
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All around the globe, a pattern of belligerence toward the United
States
and her allies is emerging: from the Korean peninsula down through the
Spratly Islands near the Philippines, enveloping Taiwan, then
reappearing
in Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Balkans.

The rhetoric from Beijing, Moscow, Belgrade, Pyongyang, and Baghdad
suggests possible coordination. Forward military deployments by China,
Iraq, Serbia, and Russia, together with sinister construction projects
and
major troop movements, have been noted in East Asia, the Pacific, and
the
Middle East.

In the past month, numerous developments have taken place in Russia
that
suggest war preparations:

RUSSIA CREATES UNIFIED COMMAND OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

In January, the Russian General Staff announced that all of the
country’s
nuclear forces -- Strategic Rocket Forces, submarine-based weaponry,
and
nukes on their strategic bombers -- would now be placed under one
command.

ANALYSIS: This development was widely reported in Russia and by the
Associated Press. The AP story indicated bafflement that Russia, in
the
middle of economic problems, would be reorganizing its armed forces,
especially the nuclear forces. But this development fits the thesis
that
Russia is, in fact, preparing for war.

In war, the principle of "unity of command” is considered crucial. By
moving to unify nuclear command, the Russian armed forces can now
better
coordinate a nuclear surprise attack involving all nuclear service
branches, obviating the friction of interservice rivalry. In a
strictly
defensive situation, centralization of the nuclear forces is
unnecessary,
even counterproductive. Decentralization is better for defense.

However, this is not true for attack. Coordinating an effective,
disarming
first strike requires a high degree of control and coordination, which
a
unified nuclear command facilitates. This move, coupled with the fact
Russia has been moving its strategic warheads onto submarines in the
past
six months, should be viewed with alarm.

TOP GENERALS RESIGN FROM STRATEGIC ROCKET FORCES

In the second half of January, the commander of Russia’s Strategic
Rocket
Forces, Col.-Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, resigned his post together with
his
three chief deputies, allegedly throwing Russia’s nuclear forces into
disarray.

After taking this unprecedented action, Yakovlev stated that the
reason for
his resignation was a personality conflict with Gen. Sokolov, the
commander
of Russia’s early-warning service.

ANALYSIS: According to Col. Stanislav Lunev, ranking defector from the
Main
Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff, Yakovlev’s
retirement was planned some time ago.

"They already have civilian jobs waiting for them,” Lunev said. "There
will
be no disruption of the rocket forces.”

Lunev believes the resignations stem from the reorganization of
Russia’s
nuclear forces under a single chief, but he nonetheless admits that
Yakovlev and his deputies are hard-liners and careerists. After closer
analysis, it is difficult to argue that they would resign in protest
over a
measure they themselves long advocated, as they were supporters and
proteges of Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, the man most responsible
for
the reorganization of the nuclear forces.

There are serious inconsistencies here that must not be passed over.
Why
did Yakovlev and his deputies resign? Has a secret nuclear command
center
been established? A centralized nuclear command would have to create
alternate command posts in several bunkers, with many capable general
officers at the ready.

Were these resignations made in protest over the reorganization of
Russia’s
nuclear forces, or were they part of the reorganization itself?

RUSSIA’S NORTHERN FLEET PUT ON ALERT

When President Clinton bombed Iraq in December, Moscow put its
Northern
Fleet on alert. This curious move, which makes no sense in terms of
reacting to a Middle East crisis, and coming at a supposed time of
reduced
superpower tensions, has serious implications that ought to be
explored.

ANALYSIS: Prior to a surprise nuclear attack on the United States, it
is
believed the Russians would attempt to put most of their nuclear
missile
submarines to sea. Therefore, the question that must be asked is
whether
the Russians used the alert to deploy their missile submarine forces.
Despite what some analysts might say, any large-scale deployment to
sea is
a red flag.

The Northern Fleet contains the lion’s share of Russia’s naval strike
capability, and any alerting of that fleet needs to be carefully
scrutinized. In fact, any Russian fleet alert should be answered by a
comparable U.S. fleet alert. It is alarming in and of itself that the
United States did not respond in kind.

RUSSIANS CONTINUE NUKE TESTING

The Russians have abandoned the agreement to forgo underground nuclear
tests. They have admitted to testing three tactical nuclear warheads
in
recent weeks. These are part of a new generation of tactical nuclear
weapons that the Russian armed forces have developed.

In addition, during the period of the agreed suspension of underground
tests, there have been suspicious earthquakes in Russia with
signatures
characteristic of strategic nuclear tests.

ANALYSIS: Nuclear readiness requires the occasional testing of nuclear
warheads. New, more efficient weapons must be tested before they are
deployed to the armed forces. The United States has not tested its
nuclear
stockpile in several years, while the Russians have been testing their
weapons.

The importance of tactical nuclear weapons to the Russians lies in the
fact
that these cannot be kept track of by arms control specialists. The
START
agreements require Russia to destroy the bulk of its strategic nuclear
stockpiles, which cannot be hidden.

But tactical nuclear weapons have a number of advantages over
strategic
ones. First and foremost, they are more efficient in terms of their
use of
nuclear fuel. Also, tactical nuclear weapons can be packed into ICBMs,
bombers, fighter-bombers, or artillery units, making them the most
versatile type of nuclear weapon.

Last, but not least, tactical nuclear weapons can be delivered as a
cluster, which is a more effective means for destroying large urban
areas,
and obviates the terms of the START treaties, which call for the
elimination of multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles
(MIRVs).

THE RUSSIANS LIE ABOUT THEIR READINESS

The chief of the Russian General Staff, Anatoly Kvashin, a hardened
professional known for his stony silence, now claims that Russia has
halved
its western military deployments, reducing its strike capability near
Finland. On Jan. 11, Kvashin stated: "We have extremely low defense
readiness.”

ANALYSIS: These are curious words from an ordinarily obsessive,
secretive,
and paranoid functionary. Such a pronouncement is uncharacteristic and
probably deceptive. Throughout history, when Russian forces have been
weak
or unready, no Russian general officer would dare to acknowledge the
fact.
Such acknowledgment, under normal conditions, would lead to immediate
dismissal.

Russian military doctrine pays close attention to the dictum of Sun
Tzu,
the ancient Chinese strategist, who said: "All warfare is based on
deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using
our
forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the
enemy
believe we are away. ... Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign
disorder, and crush him.”

If Russia is really moving troops off its border with Europe, as well
as
troops away from its Chinese border, where are the troops being
relocated?

UNPRECEDENTED SLAUGHTER OF RUSSIAN FUR ANIMALS

Russia and Belarus have large collective farms dedicated to the
breeding of
polar foxes and minks. Russia is the world’s largest fur consumer,
annually
buying 40 percent of the furs produced worldwide. But now, Russian
officials claim that demand has stalled, and they are slaughtering
their
fox and mink herds because they cannot afford to feed them.

Slaughter is normal at the onset of winter, of course, but this
slaughter
is of unprecedented numbers of animals. At the same time, Russia is
importing fur from China, as well as coats, jackets, and boots. If
Russian
demand has stalled and the market for furs is flooded, why the
imports?

ANALYSIS: Wherever we see an inconsistency in Russia’s economy, we
have to
think twice. In World War II, Russian spies infiltrated all of the
sheep
ranches in Europe. Their mission: to watch and see if sheep were being
sheared for 5 million sheepskin coats. Soviet military intelligence
reasoned that if Hitler intended to invade Russia, he would need heavy
winter clothing for his troops. The shearing of the sheep would be a
dead
giveaway.

Unfortunately for Hitler, he did not make the 5 million coats. And
though
he caught Soviet military intelligence off guard, his troops in Russia
suffered frostbite and amputations once winter began. In fact, one of
the
medals struck for German soldiers during 1941-42 was called "The Order
of
the Frozen Meat.”

Logistical preparations are a necessary part of war. National leaders
ignore such preparations at great peril. In this context, what are we
to
make of this huge increase in the production and importation of furs
and
uniform clothing in Russia?

While this activity could indicate Russian economic miscalculation,
one has
to wonder why the fur herds were increased to such a size to begin
with.
Since these fur farms are state-controlled, an increase in production
suggests an increase in projected consumption. But as civilian
consumption
has remained steady, the obvious conclusion is that somebody in Moscow
was
anticipating a huge increase in the military’s demand for winter
clothing.
With the aforesaid cover story of a collapsed market, Moscow might
well
mask a planned troop mobilization of very large dimensions. If Russia
called up her reserves either before or after a nuclear exchange, she
would
need winter coats, boots, and headgear (even if the attack took place
in
warm weather).

Russia’s soldiers may have to confront winter weather conditions in
North
America if Russian military doctrine is followed. This doctrine calls
for
an invasion of America. Always cognizant of history, the Russian
General
Staff is well aware of Hitler’s mistake in World War II and would
never
repeat that mistake in World War III.

As Russia openly makes moves for war, its new partner, China, has been
taking equally dramatic steps. Coming Wednesday: Part 2 -- Chinese
Premier
Calls For Nuclear War Preparations

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Russia and China: A Pattern of Belligerence – Part 2; J.R.
NyquistMarch 23, 1999
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China’s Clenched Fist
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As Russia openly makes moves for war, its new partner, China, has been
taking equally dramatic steps.

CHINESE PREMIER CALLS FOR NUCLEAR WAR PREPARATIONS

On Jan. 8, as if to prepare his people for war, Chinese President
Jiang
Zemin laid out the mission of the People’s Liberation Army in a
speech: "We
must resolutely safeguard the unity of the motherland and the nation’s
territorial integrity.”

Unity, of course, is the war cry of the Communists against Taiwan.
Jiang
also warned that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army must prepare
itself
for nuclear war.

Soon thereafter, China conducted military exercises in which Chinese
nuclear forces practiced targeting American troops in the Far East.

At the same time, the People’s Republic announced radical changes in
military policy. The Chinese air force was placed on "offensive mode”
as
opposed to "defensive mode,” and China’s army doctrine was altered to
one
of global warfighting.

China has also begun centralizing the distribution of supplies for all
branches of the military in what the official media calls the biggest
streamlining effort in 50 years. In this context, China’s new
"strategic
partnership” with the Russian Federation takes on sinister
ramifications.
China is also backing North Korea in its dispute with the U.S.
alliance.

ANALYSIS: China is making serious war preparations. This enhances
China’s
options against Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan. There
is
every reason to believe, from these moves, that China will support
North
Korea if war should break out in the Far East. In the context of a
renewed
war, Taiwan would almost certainly be subject to blockade, possibly
sparking a naval action between China and the U.S. This is a dangerous
situation that China seems ready to welcome. (Also, China now supports
Saddam Hussein in the U.N.)

CHINA SEIZES SPRATLY ISLANDS

In the Far East, China has invaded the Spratly Islands, more than 800
miles
from China yet 140 miles from the Philippines. Manila has expressed
alarm
that the People’s Liberation Army is erecting gun and anti-aircraft
emplacements on Mischief Reef.

The Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Guan Dengming, insisted
that
China was merely constructing "shelters for fishermen.” But a leading
Philippine official countered this, saying: "We strongly believe a
fortress
is being built.”

Philippine Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado stated that concrete
buildings
in the Spratlys "are beginning to look more like military structures
rather
than the so-called fishermen’s refuge the Chinese claimed it to be.”
Mercado further accused China of bullying the Philippines, referring
to
recent Chinese moves as "a creeping invasion.”

ANALYSIS: China’s invasion of the Spratlys may not be aimed at the
Philippines. The Spratlys lie across a key waterway that is essential
to
Taiwan. The concrete structures, aside from the anti-aircraft
emplacements,
may be useful to mine-laying operations. The Mischief Reef operation
may be
the first step toward an eventual blockade of Taiwan, which is heavily
fortified and would probably repel a direct Chinese assault.

Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, taking note of Beijing’s attempts to
encircle his small island country, called on his citizens "to raise
their
vigilance against the military threat from China.”

It’s important to note the Clinton administration has been silent over
this
audacious move by Beijing. In previous administrations, America would
have
moved with military force to prevent China’s expansionist plans. The
failure of the United States to confront China in the Spratlys bodes
ill
for Taiwan.

Russia and Chinese war preparations are not isolated and involve
communist
client states around the world.

SADDAM HAS RENEWED HIS WAR MACHINE

The Iraqi government has stepped up military activity in southern
Iraq. The
military governor of the Basra region, a Russian-trained Iraqi
general, has
confirmed the arrival of new air-defense weapons, fully acknowledging
that
his orders are to shoot down American planes. On Jan. 26, American
warplanes pounded Iraqi artillery and anti-aircraft positions.

Throughout the second half of January, Iraq deployed troops toward the
Kuwait border. In response, Kuwait has mobilized its army, claiming
that
Saddam is about to do something "dramatic.” The Iraqi dictator, aside
from
asserting his territorial ambitions against Kuwait, denounced Saudi
and
Egyptian leaders as "lackeys and stooges of the U.S.”

ANALYSIS: Iraq is an old Soviet client state. The country’s secret
police
was trained by Yuri Andropov’s KGB. Its officer corps was trained by
the
Russian army. Nearly all of Iraq’s military equipment is Russian.
Russian
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, a fluent Arabic speaker and longtime
supporter of Saddam Hussein, has intensified Moscow’s diplomatic and
military support for Saddam.

As Kosovo renews its civil war, as China tightens its noose around
Taiwan,
as North Korea girds for war, Saddam’s threat to Kuwait keeps U.S.
forces
diverted and occupied. Saddam’s provocations may be coordinated
through
Moscow with the provocations by China, North Korea, and Serbia.

NORTH KOREA’S EXTREME BEHAVIOR

The North Koreans, close allies of Moscow and Beijing, have recently
declared that "the United States will [soon] be reduced to ashes and
will
no longer exist.” North Korean headlines from the first week of 1999
proclaimed that "U.S. Imperialist Aggressors Will Be Unable to Avoid
Annihilating Strikes.”

Another North Korean source stated that the Americans would be wiped
"from
this planet for good.” In the New Year’s message of the North Korean
government, the communists called on their citizens to "love rifles,
earnestly learn military affairs, and turn the whole country into an
impregnable fortress.”

Kim Myong, an influential North Korean writer and editor who lives in
Tokyo, was quoted as saying: "Maybe there will be a new war. Maybe
everyone
in Tokyo will die.”

Kongdon On, a North Korean specialist at the Institute for Defense
Analysis
in Washington, says: "There is...strong frustration among a lot of
people
that North Korea is acting very strangely.” Han Park, a political
scientist
specializing in North Korea at the University of Georgia, also stated:
"The
situation will be very, very dangerous in the next few months.” South
Korean President Kim Dae-jung, fearing the communist threat, warned
his
people to be ready for a surprise attack from the North.

ANALYSIS: North Korea has broken its agreement to desist from
developing
nuclear weapons. It is now suspected that North Korea has nuclear
capability, and also has the missiles to deliver nuclear weapons. Able
to
threaten Tokyo as well as other Japanese cities with nuclear
destruction,
North Korea is now emboldened and may renew its struggle to conquer
the
South.

With Chinese and perhaps Russian support, Pyongyang has mobilized its
armed
forces and is now ready to strike. Defectors from the North Korean
military
have stated that Pyongyang has a plan to conquer South Korea in seven
days.
Such a plan, if it exists, probably emphasizes the use of nuclear,
biological, or chemical weapons of mass destruction, since the
conventional
firepower of the North Korean army (as it now stands) could not
readily
defeat the South in such a short time.

CIVIL WAR LOOMS IN KOSOVO

Violence has again erupted between Albanian separatists and Serbian
forces
in Kosovo, and, despite NATO warnings, the violence shows every sign
of
continuing. Russia has openly supported the Serbs, giving out subtle
warnings about a "widened war in Europe.”

ANALYSIS: More American troops and air units, including a carrier
group,
are pinned down. This crisis further stretches American military
resources,
and with no end in sight. American ground forces are said to trace
their
lines of supply through Hungary, a former Russian satellite with a
dubious
political leadership. This is an awkward position to be in, and with
Russia’s new belligerent stance we are in no position to challenge the
Serbian communists.

Taking the above items as a whole, a pattern of war preparations and
belligerence is clear. Nations of the old communist bloc are making
provocative moves across the board. With America’s armed forces at an
all-time postwar low in readiness and strength, it is doubtful we can
meet
the challenges that lie ahead.

North Korea and China seem to sense our weakness. And add to this that
all
these provocative moves have come during the impeachment trial of
President
Clinton.
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