Clueless In Brussels: Russia Mobilizes, NATO Unaware of Threat; J.R. Nyquist; April 9, 1999

[kabud]

Clueless In Brussels: Russia Mobilizes, NATO Unaware of Threat
J.R. Nyquist
April 9, 1999

Hundreds of angry Russian demonstrators marched through the Russian
capital last week, calling for war on NATO. One banner carried by the
marchers said: "It's time to bomb the military bases of the United
States."

Meanwhile, Russia's foreign and defense ministers said the Kosovo
crisis was spreading beyond Yugoslavia, and that Moscow was preparing
new and unspecified measures. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov spoke of
"new tasks" for Russia's military. Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev
likened the crisis to "a whirlpool which is drawing more countries
into it."

Believing the crisis is about to spread, Russia has been mobilizing
its armed forces, sending powerful battlegroups to sea from both the
Pacific and Northern fleets, as well as mobilizing naval units of the
Baltic and Black seas -- even to the point of dispatching a naval
squadron to the Mediterranean.

The Russian government has also announced a draft of young men ages 18
to 27. Though officials say this draft will only ask for 168,776
recruits, the specified age ranges suggest that Russia is planning to
mobilize further drafts from this same pool.

What is most remarkable about the present crisis is the NATO reaction.
Within NATO there is little alarm at the Russian war preparations.
President Clinton dismissed any thought of a conflict with Russia. The
crisis, he lamented, has "put great strains on the domestic politics
of Russia."

Oddly, the American president regards Moscow's naval and ground
mobilizations as a Russian "domestic" problem. As for Russian calls
for all-out war, Clinton sees the new anti-Americanism of Russians as
"one of the unfortunate side effects of the whole crisis." It seems as
if Clinton dismisses Russia's military power. He has no regard for
Russia's nuclear bombs and missiles, for an army which is still three
times larger than the U.S. Army, and which may easily grow to more
than four times the size of the U.S. Army in the next three months.
The fact is Clinton's contempt of Russian power is forgetful of
America's overextended global position.

While Russia has only to deal with a few "bandits" in Chechnya, the
U.S. military is pinned down in the Far East by North Korea and by
Iraq in the Middle East. Worse yet, America has lost China as a
counterweight to Russian military power. Last year Russia and China
officially formed a "strategic partnership." According to the official
Chinese news agency, this partnership is for the purpose of
challenging the "perceived global dominance of the U.S."

Russia and China have jointly demilitarized their 2,500-mile border.
300 Russian combat units were withdrawn from the Chinese frontier. A
similar number of Chinese units were withdrawn. Now the Chinese are
building up their forces opposite Taiwan, preparing for what one
expert says is a rapid campaign of conquest. At the same time, the
aforesaid Russian units are now free to threaten NATO.

But NATO is unmindful of this significant shift in the global balance
of power. In this context, the most ominous development of recent days
has been reported in the Far East. According to the nationally
circulated Sankei newspaper in Japan, North Korea used a naval
diversion on March 23rd to insert "dozens" of special operations
commandos into Japan. According to unidentified sources, these North
Korean infiltrators are trained in the sabotage of trains, bridges,
and communications. This is the type of force North Korea would deploy
prior to all-out war, which the North Koreans now say is imminent.

The aforementioned developments would alarm any sensible strategist
contemplating a ground campaign in Serbia. But NATO is unmindful, and
no NATO official better exemplifies this obliviousness than Germany's
defense minister, Rudolf Scharping. On Sunday he suggested a bomb
attack on the residence of Yugoslavia's head of state. Scharping,
heedless of the greater vulnerability to assassination of Western
leaders, said: "I am not worried about Russia." In keeping with this
nonchalance, Scharping sees Russia's naval deployment to the
Mediterranean as "a mere reconnaissance mission."

Perhaps the call-up of 170,000 Russians is also reconnaissance.

Gerhard Schroeder, the German Chancellor, is likewise oblivious. He
believes Yeltsin's soothing assurances that Russian mobilizations are
empty gestures meant for internal Russian consumption. But mass troop
mobilizations, naval deployments, and increased military readiness is
nothing to take lightly in the nuclear age. Readiness is all when it
comes to modern warfare, and whoever takes the enemy by surprise
conquers all.

It is almost as if the West's leaders have lost their strategic sense.
Even Dr. Henry Kissinger is unmoved by Russian war preparations. In an
appearance on PBS's Lehrer News Hour Kissinger said: "I go along with
intensifying the war." The idea, he said, is "victory."

With this sort of prestige behind it, the madness is sure to continue.

Day by day strident anti-Western sentiment is spreading throughout
Russia. Even Russian liberals, who privately loathe Milosevic, have
joined the anti-American bandwagon. And though President Yeltsin has
called for Russians to set aside their anger, he has been denounced by
the opposition which intends to impeach him on April 15th. Ominously,
one of the charges against President Yeltsin is that he destroyed the
Soviet Union.

Given the outrage Russians now feel about the NATO attack on their
Serbian ally (on whose behalf they fought World War One), it is only
natural that a hardliner would win any presidential elections held in
the event of Yeltsin's removal from office. That hardliner is likely
to be Prime Minister Primakov, who some experts say would win by a
landslide.

As NATO intensifies its campaign against Yugoslavia the Russians
continue to mobilize their considerable military potential. No end to
this insane cycle is in sight. Though the Russian leaders are cynical
in their exploitation of national anger, the real problem is that
NATO's leadership remains clueless in Brussels.