Re: Space Renaissance
Adriano
I begun to study your excellent paper, the chapter 12 of your book in
progress.
It is really a great piece of work, and it will greatly help the SRI
elaboration!
Having read the first part of the paper, and before walking the line to
the deeper explanation of discontinuities resolutions, I would humbly
submit hereafter few questions and comments, with the hope that they
will not upset the author, and maybe could be of some use.
For the SRI members who will read this message, here's the link to the
Paul's paper:
http://www.spacerenaissance.org/papers/PaulZiolo_Futures.pdf
All members interested to this discussion are kindly invited to join the
philosophy chapter, since we don't want to bore the ones who think that
philosophic discussions are useless ( :-) ):
http://groups.google.com/group/sri-philosophy-chapter
1) REFERENCES
Talking about the evolutionary path-history, I read that you consider:
- life as an emerging property of matter
- intelligence, an emerging property of life
I find some similitudes with the work of some authors, and was curious
to know if you consider them not relevant for your study, or maybe you
didn't yet approach their works.
I am specifically talking about two authors.
One is Robert M. Pirsig (author of "Zen and the Art of Motorbike
Maintenance", and "Lila, an inquiry into morality"). RMP is better
known, by his students, as the father of the Methaphysics of Quality, a
very interesting field of study.
However, Pirsig talks about four evolutionary levels: inorganic,
organic, social and intellectual.
Each level develops its own moral code, that is in conflict with the
previous layer's one.
The only Pirsig's limit, from my astronautic humanistic point of view,
is to be pre-copernican. When he comes to the next evolutionary step
(however he maintains that the intellectual layer didn't yet win over
the social one...) he seems to be rather confused. He talks about the
big metropolitan areas as a kind of gestalt super-being. But he's not
sure of that, and doesn't like it so much...
However his whole discourse about quality, static quality and dynamic
quality, is really great.
As to astronautics, RMP is still alive, he has time! ( :-) ).
The second one is Krafft A. Ehricke, one of the collabroators of Werber
Von Braun, the fathers of NASA.
KAE developped a fantastic series of papers, titled "The
Extraterrestrial Imperative".
Marsha Freeman recently collected such papers in a book, that can be
purchased online.
Dr. Ehricke talks about "steps of industrialization of life". The first
step was life migration from the sea to earth. His path lists different
steps, up to the current age, the one he defined "methabolism of
information". Note that he passed away in 1984, when nobody was writing
any sociological analysis and nonsenses about the internet.
I think KAE, with Gerard O'Neill, and Konstantin Tsiolkowsky many
decades before, wre the forerunners of astronautic humanism.
2) HYDROGEN
"The necessity of switching to another base resource (e.g. hydrogen, as
advocated by Rifkin (2003))"
Hydrogen is not a base resource, since it doesn't exist in nature.
Hydrogen can be considered a way to store energy (not the safest,
however), since the production of hydrogen by electrolysis requires
energy in input.
Space Based Solar Power will be an excellent alternative, both for
supplying energy to Earth's and space users.
3) GROWTH
"…impassioned polemics against growth are exercises in futility today.
Worse, they may even point in the wrong direction…"
Agree. But I would ask you if the concept of growth is considered a key
concept or not, by psychohistory.
For astronautic humanism it is the very key concept.
Should we accept the future suggested by the many theoreticians of the
"happy decrease" (there is not such a foolish thing, there will be only
a nightmare decrease!), humans wouldn't need to expand into space, and
the K1 - K2 transition would never occur.
The growth is the indispensable platform for peace, democracy, freedom,
ethics.
In a sum zero game we can only regress to an animal-status stage.
The above is sadly uncomprised by the residual 900's political
ideologies: leftists don't care about growth (since their social base is
not daily compared to the market), while right wingers are usually
devoted to self-interest philosophies, and only incidentally their
entrepreneurial initiatives support growth...
Does the category of awake entrepreneurs exist?
The above will be crucial for the K1-K2 transition...
4) OVERPOPULATION
As a neo-humanist, I strongly disagree with the use of this term.
It reflects a still superficial approach to the demographic matter, one
of the very key matters of the current crisis-transition.
Overopulation is a malthusian category.
I am strongly against, and invite any sincere anthropologist to study
the work of Julian Simon (author of "People, the ultimate resource").
Persons are never a problem, they are resources.
Being almost seven billion, humanity was never so rich before.
We wouldn't be at this transition edge, if we were a lower number.
To consider people as "mouth to be feeded" is a very oldwise
bureaucratic thought, that denies the simple fact that, over each mouth,
there's a fantastic brain, result of million years both natural and
self-driven (cultural) evolution!
The capability to use such a great unprecedented patrimony is in our
hands: should we fail, it will be our ruin.
But if we will open the system, and give birtn to a Solar Civilization,
then our number will be very insufficient, for the huge social and
scientific tasks that will arise!
And it is not sure however if our current number was enough or not, as
an intellectual platform, for the transition... but we can do nothing
more than try, as best as we can.
Maybe a couple of variables should be added to the Number of galactic
civilizations formula:
a) the size of the planet where an intelligent form of life develops
b) the size of the beings (the bigger the size, the fewer the beings)
The above leads to consider also the size of the brain, a condition for
development of a superior collaborative intelligence...
Mice maybe could be enough as a numeric platform, but they would be too
small?
4) STRATEGY
"The prevalent New Age dream of a 'great spiritual awakening' that lies
just round the corner - i.e., if we all just 'have faith', focus,
meditate and strive as individuals to live in an eco-conscious way, we
will somehow suddenly wake up some Monday morning all 'loving each
other' - is an unlikely prospect."
Agree. You also write that -- if I well understand -- that a wide and
articulated education program could get the goal of rising the needed
awareness, but it would require too much time.
And, I want to add, we don't have all of this time.
The windows for completing the transition -- the space renaissance --
will quickly close in few decades.
The sixt Kondratiev cycle (the GRAIN one) will never occur, and
civilization will implode.
Having said the above, what could be a suitable strategy, to ignite a
process of general awakening? Not the mystic New Age's one, of course, I
am talking about the awareness of the absolute urgence of the K1-K2
transition, and the very need to consciously drive the process, since it
requires huge investments and a fully new socio-economic paradigm.
I believe -- and I will strongly propose this approach in our first
congress -- Space Renaissance International should go outside on
newspapers and media with a very wide and string campaign.
We can do it, if we will have enough donations.
So our main work, now that the association was made, is to collect
donations, building a virtuous sytem to systematically collect money.
Then, even the simple name of Space Renaissance can move the cosciences
and build awareness...
I will write more after completing the study of your paper.
Paul, I am very honoured and happy to have get in touch with you!
(thanks to the noticing made by Martin Dudziak).
All the very Best
Adriano
Ziolo, Paul ha scritto:
> Dear Adriano,
>
> I would certainly like to take part in the upcoming Congress, and to submit a paper. I have enclosed for you (and other members) a paper I wrote some years ago (‘Futures’) that was sketched out as part of my current book project. It needs revision and updating, but can still stand as it is for the interests of SRI members. Perhaps Michael would like to include it in the ‘Philosophical’ section. If the format or style is unsuitable, let me know and I will make corrections.
>
> The main feature of the paper is a strategic initiative I developed at the time (see Fig. 12.8). Looking back at it, it might be of interest to yourself and the SRI, whose members represent a spectrum of companies/firms especially suited to this model. Although not referenced as such, The model iutself was inspired by the theory of NK models and autocatalytic sets developed by Stuart Kauffman in Origins of Order (1993), a work which, among other things, is very suggestive concerning the possibilites of extraterrestrial life (read ‘Origins’ rather than At Home in the Universe or Reinventing the Sacred – the latter two works are excellent as ‘popularisations’ but tend to verge on the ‘New-Agey’. I always tell my students to read the ‘hard stuff’, noit the ‘soft stuff’.).
>
> I would like to reply at greater length to some of your questions:
>
> 1) Yes, the question of falling human fertility is disconcerting. I cannot be sure of the deep causes or ultimate implications of this. In the evolutionary past, dense populations have paradoxically tended to trigger curtailment of the latency period in adolescence and therefore increased fertility, doubtless on the basis of “have more kids while the going’s good”. I feel however that current worldwide drops in fertility maybe related to a) environmental pollution and b) socioeconomic and sociopolitical instability and stress. The more sinister dimension of this is the possibility of ‘subconscious racial suicide’ – at the basis of which is the human collective death wish as ‘regression to the womb’ (Brown, 1959).
>
> 2) ‘Stasis’ in the ‘Trauma’ paper indeed needs clarification. I’m thinking here as a social scientist, rather than an engineer, in that the ‘stasis I refer to is psychological, nit technological or economic. In fact, as psychological stasis necessarily entailos regression, such stasis would inevitably lead to catastrophic collapse (ande re-traumatisation). This is better explained, I think, in ‘Futures’ (attached).
>
> 3) I too am very much an ‘astronautical humanist’, which is why I’ve spent so much time in the archives of Corpus Christi College at Oxford researching the work of Joachim of Fiore and other medieval sources. For me, the key period in the development of Western Science was not the Renaissance or the Enlightenment, but rather the ‘Cistercian Renaissance’ of the 12th century. This may seem paradoxical to moderns, but that’s psychohistory for you. To look at history through the ‘eyes of psychohistory’ is like looking at the Universe through a radio, as opposed to an optical, telescope. An optical telescope magnifies what we already see in the visual spectrum, whereas when looking through a radio telescope (or binfrared or ultraviolet), big things become small, small things become big, and the ‘real’ sources of energy become revealed for the first time.
>
> 4) If the human species diminishes, it is unlikely aqnothyer species would replace us. The Earth is too old (an ‘old lady, bit still vigorous’ as James Lovelock describes it). No, we have one shot at this – and that’s it.
>
> 5) I’m a keen science fiction reader, although SF is more indicative of hyuman fantasies concerning the future than of predicting actual realities. ‘Realities’, for me, are always far more exotic and exhilarating than human fantasies, which are predictable. My favourite SF novel is probably Stanisław Lem’s Solaris (since I teach the History and Philosophy of Science (and of Psychology in particular) this work is on my students’ reading lists).
>
> 6) The pregnancy metaphor must be uswed with great care. The symbolism of uterine ecology is the Rosetta Stone of all world religion. I will deal with this topic at much greater length in future.
>
>
> I’ve looked through postings on the list. Some excellent stuff, but we must avoid ego-based interpersonal quarrels. This won’t do at all.
>
> Thanks for your last message, and for the .htm version of the Manifesto. I’ll get back with more comments after going through it tonight.
>
> What is Michael’s contact in Manchester?
>
> I think I’ll ende now so that this email doesn’t become unreadable. More to follow.
>
> Best wishes to youy and all the members,
>
> Paul.
>
> Dr. Paul Ziolo
> School of Psychology, University of Liverpool,
> Eleanor Rathbone Building,
> Bedford Street South,
> Liverpool L69 7ZA
>
> Tel: (0044) -(151)-794-1112
> email: m.p....@liv.ac.uk
>
> "Non enim aliquid contentione quaerimus, sed res profundissimas modestissime nosse desideramus."
>
> (We do not seek to promote controversy, but in all humility to know the deepest things)
>
> Cassiodorus of Vivarium, De Anima: 1
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Adriano [mailto:a...@tdf.it]
> Sent: 21 August 2010 19:00
> To: Ziolo, Paul
> Subject: Re: Space Renaissance
>
> Hi Paul,
> I am sending to you the MSword (Office 2003) source file of the manifesto.
> Never mind, about informatic technology: though it is my job since almost 40 years... I am also conservative.
> Never trust the newest releases of any software: it will give you few new functions that you don't really need, and will waste your time to learn something that you don't need... besides that, the newest versions often have bugs, that make your life even more complicated...
> Looking forward to next steps from the Second Foundation... ( :-) ).
> All the best,
> Adriano
>
> Ziolo, Paul ha scritto:
>
>> Hi Adriano,
>>
>> Thanks for your detailed reply. I'll get back to you with a more detailed response to your questions. As for the Manifesto. I think I have to update my Adobe Reader (I thought I'd done so, but, it seems, not enough...). You know what Asimov's Second Foundaationers arer (or will have neen) like - rather conservative when it comes to personal technology. In the meantime, I'll take a look at the Philosophy site.
>>
>> Best wishes,
>>
>> Paul.
>>
>> Dr. Paul Ziolo
>> School of Psychology, University of Liverpool, Eleanor Rathbone
>> Building, Bedford Street South, Liverpool L69 7ZA
>>
>> Tel: (0044) -(151)-794-1112
>> email: m.p....@liv.ac.uk
>>
>> "Non enim aliquid contentione quaerimus, sed res profundissimas modestissime nosse desideramus."
>>
>> (We do not seek to promote controversy, but in all humility to know
>> the deepest things)
>>
>> Cassiodorus of Vivarium, De Anima: 1
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Adriano [mailto:andromed...@gmail.com]
>> Sent: 12 August 2010 09:25
>> To: Ziolo, Paul
>> Cc: Alberto Cavallo; Michael Martin-Smith
>> Subject: Re: Space Renaissance
>>
>> Dear Paul,
>>
>> I am very honoured and pleased by your answer!
>> Very welcome onboard!
>>
>> Strange that you can't access the Manifesto... here's the complete link:
>> http://www.spacerenaissance.org/papers/The_Space_Renaissance_Manifesto
>> .pdf I just tested it, and seems to work, however, I attach it to this
>> message, as a redundant safety.
>>
>> If I may profit of your kind availability, Prof. Ziolo, I'd like to ask you something that maybe you are already considering and analyzing, in the frame of your studies.
>>
>> Since I am working during these days on a strategical thesis document for the first international congress of the Space Renaissance, I am seeking uptodate information about some key indicators.
>> I learned thus that human fertility is decreasing in all countries of the world!
>> I was shocked by this news, I thought it was only in the so-called "advanced" world.
>> That doesn't mean that the demographic vector already reverted, we are still growing up in a closed environment.
>> But it means that the necrosis of the megaphoetus was initiated, and the time window to give birth to a solar civilization is dramatically closing, well before any forecast...
>> Nobody analysed, so far, the nightmare of an old, decadent, culture. In your K1 to K2 transition diagram you cleraly call it "stasis at K0", or "Extinction".
>> I think the stasis at K0 is has little probability. Our civilization would more likely go back to stone age or worse, and we could consider it extinct, as a cultural species.
>> A natural fertility could then restart after that? Would evolution pass the token to another animal species?
>> Sincerely, I am not so much interested to those hypothesis: as an astronautic humanist, I am committed to the human species, homo sapiens, and their possible evolutionary next stages.
>> Going into space, homo sapiens will have to work on fertility, I guess.
>> That will be an obliged path (the G of GRAIN, would be the main scientific effort, in this scenario).
>> And another, very powerful reason, to push our renaissance in space.
>>
>> How do you see this particular aspect?
>>
>> Yes, we would be very much interested to your studies about space colonisation and psychohistory.
>> I would be happy to link them from our philosophic chapter pages if possible, just to start (please just send me the pdf files, if they are not yet online, we will put them online on the SRI web site).
>> http://www.spacerenaissance.org/PHILOSOPHY/
>> http://www.spacerenaissance.org/PHILOSOPHY/fragments.html
>>
>> Next possible steps:
>> a) I would be in any case very happy to welcome you as an honorary
>> member
>> b) It would be great if you would take part to our congress, and help
>> us with the elaboration of the strategical thesis
>> c) You would be very welcome if you would like to prepare a specific
>> paper for our congress, to be held in 2011 springtime
>> d) Last but not least (since I am also the financial responsible of
>> SRI...), you could join the official members of SRI for just a modest
>> donation (http://www.spacerenaissance.org/sri-donate.htm)
>>
>> Thanks for your patience,
>> I remain your remote online student ( :-) ) Adriano
>>
>> PS: Alberto Cavallo, in copy to this message, is our VicePresident.
>> And Michael Martin-Smith is the chair of our philosophical chapter, besides that he lives near Manchester, that should not be far from Liverpool...
>>
>> Ziolo, Paul ha scritto:
>>
>>
>>> Dear Adriano,
>>>
>>> I have signed up on your website. I could not, however, access or download the Manifesto. Can you help?
>>>
>>> I wrote a previous email that was sent 'prematurely'. Perhaps you received it? In it, I simply stated that my PhD thesis and much of my subsequent work was in the field of Psychohistory (real - not fictional) and that my current book project deals criticall with the issue of the current crisis in our civilisation and of the possibilities of emigration to space.
>>> There is a very narrow window here.
>>>
>>> I have written many studies on the psychohistorical dimension of space colonisation. Maybe the SRI would be interested?
>>>
>>> Best wishes,
>>>
>>> Paul.
>>>
>>> Dr. Paul Ziolo
>>> School of Psychology, University of Liverpool, Eleanor Rathbone
>>> Building, Bedford Street South, Liverpool L69 7ZA
>>>
>>> Tel: (0044) -(151)-794-1112
>>> email: m.p....@liv.ac.uk
>>>
>>> "Non enim aliquid contentione quaerimus, sed res profundissimas modestissime nosse desideramus."
>>>
>>> (We do not seek to promote controversy, but in all humility to know
>>> the deepest things)
>>>
>>> Cassiodorus of Vivarium, De Anima: 1
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Adriano [mailto:andromed...@gmail.com]
>>> Sent: 09 August 2010 17:03
>>> To: Ziolo, Paul
>>> Cc: Alberto Cavallo
>>> Subject: Space Renaissance
>>>
>>> Dear Prof. Ziolo,
>>>
>>> I had opportunity to download and read your paper "Trauma and
>>> Transcendence: Psychosocial Impacts of Cybernetics and Nanotechnology".
>>> Unfortunately I am not skilled enough in your discipline, therefore I couldn't understand as I would like all the implications of your theory.
>>> However I was very much impressed by the last part of the paper, where you discuss the possible next evolutionary step: the birth of a Solar Human Civilization.
>>> Some years ago I held an online forum on the theme of the "Pregnant Earth", with several friends around the world. In such forum we discussed the similitudes between a pregnancy and the current status of planet Earth, with a population near seven billion humans, endowed by space technology, and (maybe) ready to give birth to a baby solar civilization. If you like you can find evidence of that discussion here:
>>> http://www.tdf.it/2005/Pregnearth.htm
>>>
>>> End of 2008, the Space Renaissance Initiative was born, and in these days we incorporated the Space Renaissance International.
>>> http://www.spacerenaissance.org/
>>>
>>> We started to prepare our first international congress, and your paper is quoted in our strategical thesis paper (in progress).
>>>
>>> I am disturbing you with this email, because it is not so common to find what I call true post-copernican philosophers, with a mind opened beyond the planet's boundaries and, most of all... sharing the view of the Earth's pregnancy!
>>> Related to the concept of pregnancy is the timing of the process, that has to be completed in a proper time, otherwise we will have an abortion, and that would be the end of the civilization. Such event, of the possible implosion of the civilization, was, in different ways, and with different purposes, also mentioned recently by Prof. Hawking and Prof. Lovelock.
>>>
>>> In the space community, many support the idea of humanity expansion into space, but very few are aware of the narrow character of the time window to do that.
>>>
>>> I would respectfully ask, could you be so kind to read our philosophical manifesto?
>>> http://www.spacerenaissance.org/papers/The_Space_Renaissance_Manifest
>>> o
>>> .pdf
>>>
>>> It would be great to have your signature, in case you share its contents.
>>> And, of course, we will be very happy if you will find the time to correspond with us and maybe contribute to our works.
>>>
>>> Sincerely
>>>
>>> Adriano V. Autino
>>>
>>> ======================================================
>>> Space Renaissance Initiative - President - http://www.spacerenaissance.org/ Technologies of the Frontier - President - http://www.tdf.it/ Author of the book "La Terra non è malata: è incinta!"
>>> ] e-mail: a...@tdf.it
>>> ] skype : adriano_autino
>>> ] linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/adrianoautino
>>> ] tel. : +39.0161.433688 - cell. +39.335.8244435 ] addr. : via
>>> Borgomasino, 25A 13040 Moncrivello (VC)
>>> ======================================================
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>>>
>>>
>> --
>> Adriano V. Autino
>>
>> ======================================================
>> Space Renaissance Initiative - President - http://www.spacerenaissance.org/ Technologies of the Frontier - President - http://www.tdf.it/ Author of the book "La Terra non è malata: è incinta!"
>> ] e-mail: a...@tdf.it
>> ] skype : adriano_autino
>> ] linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/adrianoautino
>> ] tel. : +39.0161.433688 - cell. +39.335.8244435 ] addr. : via
>> Borgomasino, 25A 13040 Moncrivello (VC)
>> ======================================================
>> This e-mail has been scanned for any known virus by AVG Antivirus.
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Adriano V. Autino
>
> ======================================================
> Space Renaissance Initiative - President - http://www.spacerenaissance.org/ Technologies of the Frontier - President - http://www.tdf.it/ Author of the book "La Terra non è malata: è incinta!"
> ] e-mail: a...@tdf.it
> ] skype : adriano_autino
> ] linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/adrianoautino
> ] tel. : +39.0161.433688 - cell. +39.335.8244435 ] addr. : via Borgomasino, 25A 13040 Moncrivello (VC) ======================================================
> This e-mail has been scanned for any known virus by AVG Antivirus.
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>
--
Adriano V. Autino
======================================================
Space Renaissance Initiative - President - http://www.spacerenaissance.org/
Technologies of the Frontier - President - http://www.tdf.it/
Author of the book "La Terra non è malata: è incinta!"
] e-mail: a...@tdf.it
] skype : adriano_autino
] linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/adrianoautino
] tel. : +39.0161.433688 - cell. +39.335.8244435
] addr. : via Borgomasino, 25A 13040 Moncrivello (VC)
======================================================
This e-mail has been scanned for any known virus by
AVG Antivirus.
Keith Henson
> Dear Paul,
snip
> 2) HYDROGEN
> "The necessity of switching to another base resource (e.g. hydrogen, as
> advocated by Rifkin (2003))"
> Hydrogen is not a base resource, since it doesn't exist in nature.
> Hydrogen can be considered a way to store energy (not the safest, however),
> since the production of hydrogen by electrolysis requires energy in input.
> Space Based Solar Power will be an excellent alternative, both for supplying
> energy to Earth's and space users.
If you want hydrogen to be easy to handle, attach it to carbon. We
have a long history of dealing with hydrocarbons. Among other places
you can get carbon out of the air for about 2% of the energy cost of
making hydrogen. The economics are that one cent per kWh electric
power can be converted into dollar a gallon liquid fuels. This is
existing technology, a plant costing a billion dollars that make
34,000 bbls per day is in service in Qatar.
snip
> 4) OVERPOPULATION
> As a neo-humanist, I strongly disagree with the use of this term.
There is only "over" in terms of the resources available.
The solar system as a whole could support tens of trillions in a state
of luxury almost unbelievable. However, the *Earth* at it's current
state of technology is close to the limit, perhaps well over the
sustainable limit. That can be fixed with engineering. There are at
least two energy projects that scale into the tens of TW and produce
energy at such low cost that they would simply displace fossil fuels
on price alone.
Will the energy problem be solved? Hard to say, our current short
time horizons for business models makes it questionable.
snip
Keith
PS. Given my background (L5 Society) you may be disturbed that I no
longer think humans will go into space in a significant way. The
short reason is that I think friendly AIs will eat our brains. The
long explanation is here
http://www.terasemjournals.org/GN0202/henson.html