SPRD/ Thompson Reuters: Indication of Things to Come...
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MaxKolbe
Mar 28, 2012, 10:14:40 AM3/28/12
to spreadt...@googlegroups.com
Thompson Reuters StockReport+ ratings are quite comprehensive... and quite predictive- if one understands that the market reacts RELATIVE to the criteria they've identified. For instance, a "strong buy" rating isn't going to prompt accumulation nearly as much as is an UPGRADE TO "strong buy."
One has to understand that this report LAGS because it RESPONDS to what happens AFTER it's happened. Thus, SPRD had a "10" rating AFTER the run to $29. The greater signal was the upward-momentum rating.
So in the past two weeks SPRD was sitting ugly at a "1" rating. Currently it's at a "4" - with substantial, overall upgrades.
To the nitty-gritty- the only thing keeping SPRD from its former/elite "10" rating is (1) volatility / stability, (2) profit, (3) analyst changes.
Volatility is stabilizing with upward strength "naturally" (i.e., not effected by repurchase). Management has withheld nothing from us -- including news of soft profit in Q1, and possibly Q2... all forecasts are pointing to explosive profit in Q3/ Q4 and near future going forward. Regarding analysts-- many of the downgraders set a target price at $15 for this year.
Again, given that market response is often RELATIVE to analyst projections-- how do you think the market is going to react when analysts HAVE to upgrade based upon market price (ALREADY SURPASSED!) and profit (consensus per Q3/Q4)... and volatility continues to be morph into solid, upward movement?
Summary: IF you (1) observe the continued (upward) strengthening of price, (2) believe in these profit projections, and (3) know the analysts will have to upgrade from their recent downgrades... now is the time to get on board (more)!
Blessing to all longs...
One has to understand that this report LAGS because it RESPONDS to what happens AFTER it's happened. Thus, SPRD had a "10" rating AFTER the run to $29. The greater signal was the upward-momentum rating.
So in the past two weeks SPRD was sitting ugly at a "1" rating. Currently it's at a "4" - with substantial, overall upgrades.
To the nitty-gritty- the only thing keeping SPRD from its former/elite "10" rating is (1) volatility / stability, (2) profit, (3) analyst changes.
Volatility is stabilizing with upward strength "naturally" (i.e., not effected by repurchase). Management has withheld nothing from us -- including news of soft profit in Q1, and possibly Q2... all forecasts are pointing to explosive profit in Q3/ Q4 and near future going forward. Regarding analysts-- many of the downgraders set a target price at $15 for this year.
Again, given that market response is often RELATIVE to analyst projections-- how do you think the market is going to react when analysts HAVE to upgrade based upon market price (ALREADY SURPASSED!) and profit (consensus per Q3/Q4)... and volatility continues to be morph into solid, upward movement?
Summary: IF you (1) observe the continued (upward) strengthening of price, (2) believe in these profit projections, and (3) know the analysts will have to upgrade from their recent downgrades... now is the time to get on board (more)!
Blessing to all longs...
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