Re: NHL Systems with SDQL

[Jar Jar 21]

VAN at Flames (maybe?)

VAN's plane is apparently still parked at YVR. The snowstorm in CGY has pilots concerned they might not be able to land if they make the flight. It's 50-50 (last update) that they'll even take off but if they do, that is one helluva tough travel spot. Whether they play or not, here is an SDQL angle for the 'Nucks in this situation:

 

VAN 001. This is only the fourth time since 2009 VAN has immediately followed a home win with a road game (no rest) and they are 3-0 SU with 3 overs, outscoring opponents 14-6 (team=Canucks and A and p:HW and rest=0).

On Friday, March 1, 2013 4:09:42 PM UTC-8, Jar Jar 21 wrote:

Hey guys, I've been playing around with different angles for NHL betting and thought I'd try posting some of the codes in this thread for easier reference.

Friday NHL, the Wild are in Anaheim and I looked at the total going OV 5 (-105) 

MIN 001. Minny has won back to back games against Calgary (2-1) and Phoenix (4-3) and since 2008, Minny is 14-7-2 O/U following back-to-back one-goal wins with an avg 5.8 total goals scored per game.

team=Wild and p:margin=1 and pp:margin=1 and season>=2008

ANA 001. The Ducks are 14-3-2 O/U the past 19 home games when allowing one or less goals their previous game (team=Ducks and H and 1>=po:goals and date>=20100406) – 7.1 avg GPG.

 

My play is on the over but I'm not interested in using this forum for tracking W/L records, just developing some puck skills with SDQL. Please let me know if I cross any lines for forum etiquette. 

[Jar Jar 21]

VAN 002. The Canucks are 14-7 SU and 13-7-1 O/U when playing on the road following a home game where VAN scored 5-plus goals.

team=Canucks and p:goals>=5 and A and p:H

[Jar Jar 21]

MONTHLY SCORING TRENDS

In January, 2013 there was 100 NHL games (season began Jan. 19-13). Home teams went 58-42 SU and the avg score was 3.0-2.7 with a 42-53-4 O/U record (45-percent).

site=home and month in [1] and season=2012

 

Home scoring dipped in February, 2013 to 2.8-2.6 and the win percentage fell with it. Home teams were 100-97 SU and totals stayed low at 84-98-15 O/U (46-percent).

site=home and month in [2] and season=2012

 

The Jan-Feb combined record for home teams was 158-139 (53-percent), 2.8-2.6 and 127-151-19 O/U (46-percent).

site=home and month in [1,2] and season=2012

 

It’s a limited sample but so far in March the scoring has taken off. Home teams are the driving force with a 0.8 GPG increase over the season average. The result is a 29-7 SU (87-percent) record for the homers, outscoring opponents 3.6-2.6 and Over/Under results of 22-11-3, or 67-percent to the "Over". The 36 games have finished 32.5 goals over the closing totals, or 0.9 GPG.

H and season=2012 and month=3

*Note that ‘H’ can be used to shortcut ‘home’ ------ Check the breakdown at

http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?sdql=H+and+season%3D2012+and+month%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+&show_games=50

 

Since Monday there has been 12 overs, 2 unders and 1 push and tonight it looks like the "Over" is getting action in three of four matchups (COL-CHI).

 

The month-by-month breakdown can easily be viewed with the SDQL code:

H and season=2012 and month

http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?sdql=H+and+season%3D2012+and+month&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

[The_Z]

Dogs barking:

 

AD and P:month=month and P:WFH and (month=11 or month=12 or month=1 or month=2 or month=3 or month=4 or month=5) and line<=150

 

AD and P:LF and P:month=month and (month=10 or month=2 or month=1 or month=3 or month=4 or month=12) and line<=150

[Jar Jar 21]

WIN STREAK, LOSS – WHAT’S NEXT?

- Friday, March-08-13: The Chicago Blackhawks started this season with a 21-0-3 record, a new all-time record for longest point streak to start the season. Tonight in Colorado the Avs handed them their first defeat and I’m looking at what happens to teams after their first loss which followed a lengthy win streak.

*Records go back as far as 2006 unless noted.

 

STREAKER ON THE ROAD (after loss)

- If win streak before loss was 6-plus games the home team is 42-26 SU

- If 7-plus games, 21-14 SU

- If 8-plus games the home team is 13-4 SU and including an 8-1 SU run since 2009. The home team scored 4-plus goals in 7 of 9 games and they went 6-2-1 O/U

SDQL: H and op:L and opp:streak>=8

- If 9-plus games the home team is 4-3 SU including a 3-0 run since 2009

 

STREAKER BACK HOME (after loss)

- If win streak before loss was 6-plus games the road team is 28-38 SU with totals going 40-20-6 O/U (avg 6.2 GPG)

A and op:L and opp:streak>=6

- If 7-plus games, road team is 14-23 SU and 22-12-3 O/U (6.3 GPG) with a more recent trend of 17-8-2 O/U (6.4 GPG) since 2009.

A and op:L and opp:streak>=7 and date>=20090101

- If 8-plus, the road team’s record improves to 9-11 and totals stay strong to the "Over" at 12-6-2 O/U with 6.3 GPG

- If 9-plus the totals since 2006 are 8-3-1 O/U and 6.6 avg GPG. Note that the home team has scored 3-plus goals in 10 of 12 games here and is riding a 7-1 win streak.

  

My first insinct is towards the Over 5.5; thinking juice would be in the -130 range? I don't have a lot of faith in Edmonton's goaltending situation (3.0 GAA on home ice this year; 2.60 away).

 

Things to consider:

- Edmonton is in the midst of a long road trip that has gone from bad, to worse to an absolute train wreck.

 

- Chicago is coming off a game at high altitude and following a loss, only a few teams show strong records in that spot. Chicago is 2-2 SU in this exact spot but they’ve struggled to score (1-3 O/U). It actually looks like the "Under" has some value as only two teams (STL, CGY) have an Over/Under record more than two games above .500. The whole league can be seen with this code:

p:AL and H and po:team=Avalanche and team

 

- This win streak for Chicago is unprecedented. These numbers only go back to 2006 but the number of teams "live" falls off a cliff past eight- or nine-straight wins. I like systems but I’ll be the first to admit that there is no formula to predict exactly what Chicago will bring on Sunday. 

[Joe Meyer]

Jar,

the `streak' parameter is the streak going into the game so I think you want the SDQL reference `op:steak`.  Also, it is sometimes handy to group values in a single SDQL query:

H and op:L and op:streak>6,12,18,24

http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?sdql=H+and+op%3AL+and+op%3Astreak>6%2C12%2C18%2C24

Other aggregate parameters, such as `wins`, 

refer to the value going into the game.

An SDQL truth is:

tS(W) == wins

Best wishes,

Joe Meyer

http://SportsDatabase.com

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[Jar Jar 21]

Hmm, thanks Joe, definitley appreciate the head's up. I wasn't 100-percent sure about where to put the "streak" but I cross-referenced it with a couple of recent examples and thought by going 'opp:streak' I was counting the streak ahead of the loss. Will have to make adjustments but I guess in the case of the Blackhawks, who hadn't lost all year it's a non-factor here. 

[Jar Jar 21]

RE-WRITE THE SWEEP SCRIPT!

I took a closer look at the Hawks situation and re-worked the numbers for teams off a loss which followed an extended win streak. After all, Chicago’s unbeaten streak to start the season was impressive but they did technically ‘lose’ three times along the way. All three were in shootouts but however you look at it, they were certainly not wins.

 

Chicago opened the season with six-straight wins, lost in a shootout at MIN (Jan. 30) and then played in VAN two days later. VAN (-127) won that game 2-1 (shootout).

A. Home faves of -140 or less in this situation are 12-5 SU (2.7-2.4) and 6-10-1 O/U. Since the 2011-12 season the trend is 1-5 O/U.

HF and op:AL and op:streak>=6 and line>=-140

 

Note: If the road team off a loss’ win streak was between 4-7 wins, the home fave of -140 or less is just 3-10 SU the past 13 times and 2-15-1 O/U the past 18 (4.2 GPG)

HF and op:AL and 4<op:streak<7 and line>=-140

 

 

Chicago’s next run was four-straight wins before a home shootout loss to ANA. On Feb. 15^th the Hawks started a new run of 11-straight wins that ended Mar. 8 in COL. Chicago is home on Sunday, opening as a -210 ML fave against Edmonton. The total is 5.5 UN -140. There has been only three previous occurrences since 2006 where the home fave’s win streak before the road loss reached double-digits. In those three games the home team was 2-1 and totals were 1-1-1 O/U.

 

B. When the win streak was seven games or more the combined record for home teams is 5-5-4 and 5-7-2 O/U. Not only were goals dead even at 2.9 per side, but average goals per period is identical at 1.8 per period.

HF and p:AL and p:streak>=7

 

Note: If you fine tune the ML to favorites of -190 or more the home team’s record is 2-1-3. Not a lot to go on but by sheer coincidence, this is Edmonton’s third time in this exact situation since 2010.

HF and p:ALand p:streak>=7 and line<=-190

[Jar Jar 21]

The Canucks snapped four-game losing streak Tuesday night in Columbus. Here are some angles that applied to this game: 

KH 1.4 – Same Season Revenge 

A. Road faves off a road loss looking for same season revenge are 64-38 since 2006

AF and p:AL and P:L and P:season=season

 

The Canucks have been "live" five times in this profile and they are 5-0, outscoring opponents 4.2 to 2.6 with 4 overs and 1 under. The lone under was 3-1 win against the Kings during the first round of the 2012 playoffs. The other four games VAN scored 17 total goals (4.25 per game).

AF and p:AL and P:L and P:season = season and team = Canucks

 

B. When the road team is favored by more than-130 the win percentage drops significantly (25-20 SU) and total go to 15-26-4 O/U.

AF and p:AL and P:L and P:season=season and line<-130

 

CURRENT FORM PREVAILS

Since 2009, ML faves of -135 or more were 14-3-1 SU and 5-12-1 O/U. All five overs were high scoring clubs (CHI x2, ANA, SJ and VAN). Those games were also against teams with terrible D and yes, Columbus was the victim twice. But these are not the same old 'Nucks and the Jackets are riding high.

 

GOALIES ARE KEY

The Jobs were 1-4 in Bobrovsky’s first five home games this season but since they are 3-0 and he’s allowed two goals against VAN, COL and DET.

Lou’s overall record against CBJ is 9-5 with a 2.18 GAA. He didn’t look great in his last two road games at CGY/DET but I think he’s going to bounce back.

 

Recap: VAN won this game 2-1 in a so. The 'Nucks improved to 6-0 in this spot and the "Under" profile for ML faves of -130 or more notched another win. Current form and NOT old mentality about either of these teams was a major factor as was the stellar goaltending on both ends.