A must read in depth system analysis with SDQL

[Russ]

I do a lot of work on situational handicapping. It does take a lot of basic understanding of why and where the money lies. It is easy to get fooled. Many handicappers like to bait their subscribers or potential subscribers with perfect systems, that are usually 16-0 ATS, 12-0 ATS, etc. There is one basic reason for that, PERFECT sells! It may be a methodology that works for them, and even you, but I have always taken a more practical long term, time tested approach to what I do. Today in the newsletter, I am going to take you through the process step by step. You will see that the number of games in the data set is exceptionally large. I like that simply because that has a much stronger chance to being meaningful, and holding up going forward. I say that because if odds makers were onto something, it would have ended a long time ago, trust me, they are not! Are they on 16-0 ATS "STREAKS" Of course they are aware most of the time, and knowing their audience, will likely adjust accordingly. Let's break down a logical long term favorite of mine, utilizing the rest component in the NBA.

If you look at 0 rest it is the one area that impacts an NBA team the most. That can be illustrated like this:

Home teams in the NBA on 0 rest and opponent on 0 rest  are 48.8%   (over 2200 games)
Home teams in the NBA on 0 rest and opponent on at least 1 day rest are 47.3%*** ( over 1800 games)

You can easily see an unrested home team vs a rested road team shows a slight bias, and slight blind profit on 1800+ games, that is statistically relevant.
*********************************************************************************************************************************************

Now that you know this, when is it most relevant?



HOME FAVORITE  0 REST vs RESTED OPPONENT      48.7%  (1800+ games)
HOME DOG  0 REST vs OPPONENT WITH REST          44.6%  (close to 700 games)****

SO WHY THE HOME DOG STRUGGLES?

A team that is a home favorite, is likely to have the roster strength, and overall team strength, to at least endure the lack of rest. A home dog, obviously considered the inferior team, likely does not have the roster depth or team strength to overcome.
*******************************************************************************************************************************************************

It is the next step, that is highly logical that really shows a considerable edge:

DOES GAME NUMBER MATTER? 
ANSWER: WITH 100% CERTAINTY!

HOME DOG WITH 0 REST PRIOR TO GAME 27 vs RESTED OPPONENT:    109-106-4  ATS   .507
HOME DOG WITH 0 REST FROM GAME 27 ON (27 selected as it is 1/3 into the season)   191-267-7 ATS  .417****

See, early in the season the rest component is not significant, because for the most part teams are fresh, the roster is healthy, and there is no edge either way. However, as we see, once we get 1/3 or more into the season, the inferior team shows why they are inferior. They are the disadvantaged team, probably have injuries, or are starting to get banged up, and the lack of roster depth shines through in a huge way. Odds makers won't pick up on this because their algorithms do not understand the seasonality of this huge predictor. If they do, it is all-inclusive, and the weak teams in this unrested role are not treated as inferior as they should.

Hopefully that is a good illustration of how situations are meaningful, well researched, and most importantly start from a singular profitable situation with 1000s of games, and are not back fitted to fit and make something look better than it is.

THE SDQL FOR THE FINAL SYSTEM IS:

rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and HD and game number >= 27

SU:	124-341 (-6.52, 26.7%)
ATS:	191-267-7 (-1.45, 41.7%)	avg line: 5.1

If you are interested in this type of logic consider my books at Amazon.com:

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_2?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Top+NCAA+Football+Betting

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Top+NFL+Football+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3ATop+NFL+Football+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Top+NBA+Basketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3ATop+NBA+Basketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Top+NBA+Basketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3ATop+NBA+Basketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro

That is 4 books, NCAAF,NFL,NBA, and College Bowls. They all contain 10 strong systems, and Joe has space at killercappers.com where you can store all of them for $2 each, and you will always know when they come up. It is a win-win for Joe, You, and I!

Best of Luck,
East

[Pete Molnar]

Thanks for that insight into the logic and reasoning. Ive been using SDQL for 3 years now,  and struggled mostly the first few years. Your posts have helped me immensely, as I have turned the corner and have a solid 2017 season going across all sports due largely to the info you share. I sincerely appreciate your contributions to this forum. 

TYVM

BOL and continued success.

Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android

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[Ognj3n]

Congrats on the publications :)

[Russ]

thanks, appreciate it! Doing very well, NBA systems book ranks #30

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From: "Ognj3n" <ogn...@gmail.com>
To: "sportsdatabase" <sportsd...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 26, 2017 1:58:23 PM
Subject: Re: A must read in depth system analysis with SDQL

Congrats on the publications :)

[Coach Mike]

Russ,

I will check out your NCAAFB and NBA books. Congrats. If you're willing to share, I'm curious what type of long-term winning percentage you have playing your trends. I have heard the best bettors in the world hit 55-56%. Has that been your experience too?

Thanks,

CoachMike
http://trendbetting.boards.net/

[Brad S]

 Do you have anything for NCAABB??

Awesome stuff Russ, very good! I will check those books out! 

[Russ]

Thanks Brad

I am working on an NCAABB book right now. I'm hopeful to get it compleed by Nov. 10th for opening night, but may be a bit later.

Since Joe prefers this to be a vehicle for the SDQL, here is something for tonight's NBA game, enjoy!

NBA AND OFFENSIVE MOJO:

Each sport beats to a different drummer, and in some cases there are several drummers that speak to a league in general. Today in the newsletter we will examine an NBA situation based on offensive mojo, and winning as a road chalk. This has been going on for quite some time, and has a lot of plays in the data set, which is always an indication that the situation is statistically sound. Let's take a quick look at the very simple parameters and results:

1)  Play on team has scored 105 or more points in at least 3 straight games.

2)  Play on team is a road dog

That is all there is to it, short, sweet, simple, and powerful, just the way I like them. These teams have rolled over the books with a:

346-250-14 ATS mark good for  58.1% winners. This situation has also been hot lately going 18-4 ATS in the last 22 occurrences.

Tonight consider the Golden St. Warriors, who qualify.

SDQL:

p:points > 104 and pp:points > 104 and ppp:points > 104 and AF

SU:	442-168 (6.04, 72.5%)
ATS:	346-250-14 (0.23, 58.1%)	avg line: -5.8
O/U:	291-309-10 (-0.25, 48.5%)	avg total: 207.8

Very simple, yet powerful!

Best of Luck,
East

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From: "Brad S" <mukgo...@gmail.com>
To: "sportsdatabase" <sportsd...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 2, 2017 1:58:09 PM

Subject: Re: A must read in depth system analysis with SDQL

 Do you have anything for NCAABB??

Awesome stuff Russ, very good! I will check those books out! 

[BeBrave]

I just purchased the NCAA football book and there does not seem to be any SDQL queries... am I missing something? I thought that was the purpose?

[Russ]

Hi:

I tried to get a co-op with Joe, and display the SDQL, but he told me he would get back to me and never did. Keep in mind many that purchase these books, have never even heard of SDQL. I'm not sure what your level of expertise is on SDQL, but I'd be glad to help on any that you do not understand how to re-create.

Thanks for your purchase,

Russ (MREAST)

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From: "BeBrave" <jacksonh...@gmail.com>
To: "sportsdatabase" <sportsd...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 7, 2017 3:07:51 PM

Subject: Re: A must read in depth system analysis with SDQL

I just purchased the NCAA football book and there does not seem to be any SDQL queries... am I missing something?  I thought that was the purpose?

[BeBrave]

I have a very limited experience with it. My intention on purchasing the books was to obtain the queries and learn how to apply them. Without them this purchase is completely worthless to me. I will purchase the NFL book as well if you are willing to share the queries?

[Russ]

Hold off on purchasing the NFL book, until I get all the NCAAF queries together and send them to you. This is a very busy time of year, hopefully I get them to you tonight, latest tomm.

Russ

---

From: "BeBrave" <jacksonh...@gmail.com>
To: "sportsdatabase" <sportsd...@googlegroups.com>

Sent: Tuesday, November 7, 2017 5:15:14 PM

Subject: Re: A must read in depth system analysis with SDQL

I have a very limited experience with it.  My intention on purchasing the books was to obtain the queries and learn how to apply them.   Without them this purchase is completely worthless to me.  I will purchase the NFL book as well if you are willing to share the queries?

[Timothy Cate]

Be Brave I would also be glad to help you. Email me what systems you want to query using SDQL. Take a pic of the page(s) or wtv is easy for you...

I love Russ' style and he knows he changed mine. I much prefer the big sets these days. What I would consider the best start-point for exploring NBA is Conf. vs. Non-conf. ...they're different. What it boils down to is resources: teams will always allocate more to conference games as well they should: it's the pathway to  playoffs. To keep focus squarely on SDQL, here is example of all mentioned: 

Fade the OT-Winner@Non-Conference...Link

Year after Year,,,,it just keeps doin' its thing.

As always, thanks for sharing, Mr. East! I'll be checking out books ASAP.

Best, Tim

On Tue, Nov 7, 2017 at 4:29 PM, BeBrave <jacksonh...@gmail.com> wrote:

That would be amazing!

JacksonH...@gmail.com

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[Russ]

******   NBA PLAYOFFS*******

Those that have been with this newsletter realize I don't self promote a great deal. There are times that I do, and now is one of them. My NBA playoffs have been electric over the years, including last year, and the NBA has been a cash cow this season, especially totals. I like to give back as much as possible to newsletter subscribers, many of which are on an Annual pass to all my picks, and those that have done so for the last 8 years, certainly can attest to how real it is. I am proud of my 125+ unit record over the period, just 1 unit at a time. That simply means a dime player is up over 125k. If I was like the rest, and touting 3,5,10,20 unit plays or more, that number would be in the millions. The one difference? We play with real money here, not monopoly money! Thanks to all that have taken this journey with me, I have, and will, always keep it real.

For all the newbies out here, or those that like to take a dip into these picks from time to time, I am offering my NBA Playoffs, which run for just about 2 months, for just $99.00. If you act now, I will throw in the rest of my NCAA Tourney picks, and the remainder of the NBA season as well. That is about as good as it gets.

To get started, just send 99.00 via Paypal to weathe...@comcast.net  and in the message section just write NBA playoffs. I will confirm your subscription within 24 hrs (usually much sooner), and you start getting plays immediately. 

Most NBA playoff games will have write-ups unless they are a late add. I never release a pick after 6PM EDT, or less than an Hour before tip-off/start.

On November 2, 2017 at 1:58 PM Brad S <mukgo...@gmail.com> wrote:

 Do you have anything for NCAABB??

Awesome stuff Russ, very good! I will check those books out! 

 

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[Russ]

Sorry, if this went to the google groups, it was not intended to do so, I messed up!

[Sean Manns]

Would love to see some of these in SDQL form. 

The highest return can find over a large same sample size I can find within the SDQL is within MLB

line<-166 and season>2009

[Ognj3n]

Let's analyze this for a bit :

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&rl=1&sdql=line%3C-166+and+season%3E2009+and+season&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
Seems to be only profitable 2014 and later

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&rl=1&sdql=line%3C-166+and+season%3E2009+and+month&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
Seems to be only profitable after April and before September for commonly known reasons

see, much prettier now, higher ROI and profit overall :
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&rl=1&sdql=line%3C-166+and+season%3E2013+and+4%3Cmonth%3C9++&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

One more thing, how about this split ... let us see if it makes a difference, whether the starter is in rhythm,
as in coming off a win as opposed to coming off a loss, on the original query :
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=line+%3C+-166+and+season+%3E+2009+and+s%3AW%2Cs%3AL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
Oops :))) adding this condition did not help much very much in the past, but maybe someone might have a better idea how to use it.

[BeBrave]

No MLB book out yet?

[Sean Manns]

Great Stuff, man!

Love looking at it.