FW: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
Evans F. Mitchell; KD4EFM / WQFK 894
Forwarded from our Polk County EOC Director.
To All Hams;
TS 2 will not be a threat to land areas during the next 48 hours.
Pictures included in the email.
From: William D. Abernathy [mailto:billyab...@polkfl.com]
Sent: Sunday, July 17, 2011 5:53 PM
Subject: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND IN THIS
CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT.
THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH
SOME DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE. INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
Billy Abernathy FPEM
Polk County Emergency Management
EOC Coordinator
1890 Jim Keene Blvd.
Winter Haven, 33880
Office 863-298-7001
Cell 863-860-8002
The “Extra Mile” has no traffic jams.
