TROPICAL UPDATE; From Polk County EOC

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Evans F. Mitchell; KD4EFM / WQOD 582

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Aug 22, 2012, 6:35:47 AM8/22/12
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From my local EOC.

South Florida needs to watch this.

 

Evans F. Mitchell

KD4EFM / WQOD 582

  http://www.florida-dstar.info

  P25/D-Star/NXDN/TDMA-2slot

       Digital HAM RADIO

  Product Support and Programmer

 

I.T.T. Tech Graduate – AAS – EET 91’

20+ yrs 2-Way Radio Tech. Experience

 

 

 

TS ISAAC - (TS ISAAC IS IDENTIFIED IN THE ATTACHED IMAGERY WITH A YELLOW CIRCLE) THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB.

 

INV 96 - (INV 96 IS IDENTIFIED IN THE ATTACHED IMAGERY WITH A WHITE CIRCLE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE, 90 PERCENT, OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

POLK COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT EOC WILL BE MONITORING THE TROPICS AND WILL NOTIFY OF CHANGES, IF NECESSARY.

 

NOTE - IN REFERENCE TO THE MODELS FOR THESE SYSTEMS – MODELS ARE NOT AN EXACT  SCIENCE, THEY ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. AS CONDITIONS CHANGE, SO DO THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE USED FOR GENERALIZATION OF THE TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM(S). 

 

WATER TEMP

Description: cid:image001.png@01CD802A.47DBC7A0

 

SURFACE ANALYSIS

Description: cid:image002.png@01CD802A.47DBC7A0

 

STEERING

Description: cid:image003.png@01CD802A.6BA35360

 

SHEAR

Description: cid:image004.png@01CD802A.6BA35360

 

 

Billy Abernathy FPEM

Polk County Emergency Management FR05

EOC Coordinator

1890 Jim Keene Blvd.

Winter Haven, 33880

billyab...@polkfl.com

Office 863-298-7001

Cell 863-860-8002

 

The “Extra Mile” has no traffic jams.

 

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8 22 1 NASA IR GULF.JPG
8 22 2 NASA IR CAR.JPG
8 22 3 NASA IR ATL.JPG
8 22 TS ISAAC DTN MODEL.JPG
8 22 TS ISAAC HURREVAC MODEL.jpg
8 22 TS ISAAC MODELS.JPG
8 22 TS ISAAC WM MODEL.JPG
8 22 INV 96 MODELS.JPG
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