Fake Meat v Grassfed Meat Markets: Two Google AI questions and answers for you, enjoy!
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Seth Itzkan
Dec 30, 2025, 9:56:57 PM (10 days ago) 12/30/25
to Soil Age, Sequestering Carbon in Soil: Addressing The Climate Threat, Grassroots Network Food and Ag Forum, Healthy Soils Legislation, Healthy Soils Coalition
Fake Meat v Grassfed Meat Markets: Two Google AI questions and answers for you, enjoy!
Note: In the fake meat market, supply is outpacing demand. In the grassfed market, demand is outpacing supply. Where would you want to put your money? How do we influence the outcome that favors soil? Of course, the more soil becomes a priority, the more grassfed becomes the desirable option (and, I presume, what most people prefer to eat in the first place). Also, just because it's "grassfed," doesn't necessarily mean it's regenerative, but it will almost certainly have a better environmental profile than the cultured meat solution which will still rely on industrial wheat, corn, and potatoes for the glucose-based "growth medium" (yeah, that). In any case, people understand that grassfed implies animals in nature and that the path to truly regenerative management is the only sustainable and profitable outcome once environmental factors (such as soil, water, energy, and waste) are accounted for. One of the many ironies in the high-tech push for fake meat, is that it's the same players that want (or will want) carbon offsets for AI datafarms. I wonder where those credits will come from? It sure as heck won't be the cultured meat industry. The more suitable candidate, of course, will be the grassfed meat suppliers who are already gobbling up the offset market. Yes? Isn't the future going to be fun? Explain that to Bloomberg Intelligence. ;-)
Key quotes:
Fake meat: "... recent years have seen declines in unit sales, indicating challenges in meeting consistent consumer demand and taste expectations."
Grassfed meat: "Producers and companies are actively seeking to increase supply to catch up with demand, which has historically outpaced production."
1. What kind of volume is fake meat trying to achieve?
2. What kind of volume is grassfed meat trying to achieve?
Answer 1
The fake meat industry is aiming for a significant increase in volume to achieve mainstream market share, moving from a niche product to a staple of global meat consumption in the coming decades. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Specific volume targets and projections vary, but the overall goal is high growth:
- Market Share Projections: Some experts predict that by 2040, cultivated meat will make up 35% of the world's meat consumption, while plant-based alternatives will account for another 25%. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that plant-based meat and dairy alternatives will comprise 5% of the total global meat market by 2030, up from about 0.5% in 2021.
- Production Goals: Individual companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods initially focused on scaling production from low volumes (e.g., Impossible Foods' initial goal of 4 million burgers a month) to larger commercial scales to lower prices and meet demand.
- Volume Growth in the U.S.: The U.S. meat substitutes market is expected to reach approximately 82.13 million kg in volume by 2030, though recent years have seen declines in unit sales, indicating challenges in meeting consistent consumer demand and taste expectations.
- Global Market Value: The plant-based meat market is projected to grow substantially in value, with one estimate placing the global market size at over USD 50.89 billion by 2034, reflecting a high compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which implies significant volume increases if price parity can be achieved. [1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11]
The industry's success hinges on overcoming key challenges, including achieving price and taste parity with conventional meat and producing at a massive, affordable scale. The target consumer base has also broadened from just vegans/vegetarians to include "flexitarians" (consumers interested in reducing their meat intake), which is essential for achieving the high volumes required for a significant market shift. [12, 13, 14]
AI responses may include mistakes.
Answer 2
Grass-fed meat is trying to achieve significant volume growth to expand from its current status as a premium niche market into a more mainstream offering, though it still represents a small fraction of the total beef market. The market is growing rapidly in both dollar and pound sales due to increasing consumer demand for healthier, more sustainable, and ethically produced food options. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Current Volume and Market Share
The grass-fed meat market is a niche but rapidly expanding segment:
- In the U.S., labeled grass-fed beef makes up a small percentage of total beef consumption, estimated at around 4-5% of the total U.S. beef market.
- Grass-fed beef sales reached approximately $1.8 billion in 2024, experiencing substantial growth of nearly 30% in dollars and 35% in pounds compared to the previous year.
- Globally, the grass-fed meat market was valued at about $13 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to over $22 billion by 2033. [1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]
Volume Goals and Growth Trajectory
The industry's volume goals involve scaling up production to meet the soaring consumer demand:
- Producers and companies are actively seeking to increase supply to catch up with demand, which has historically outpaced production.
- The market is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.9% to 5.4% over the next several years, indicating an ongoing effort to significantly boost volume.
- Individual companies are setting ambitious volume targets, such as one producer aiming to increase cattle purchases from 2,500 head in 2024 to 7,000 in 2026, with long-term goals of reaching tens of thousands. [4, 12, 17, 18, 19]
Challenges to Achieving Volume
Despite the growth targets, several factors inherently limit the production volume compared to conventional, grain-fed systems:
- Slower growth rates: Grass-fed cattle grow more slowly and typically require 18 to 24 months to reach market weight, compared to 12 to 13 months for grain-fed cattle.
- More land required: Grass-fed systems require more land for grazing per animal.
- Processing bottlenecks: The supply chain for grass-fed meat is different, with a shortage of processing facilities that can handle smaller volumes of animals per day, which increases costs. [2, 20, 22, 23]
In summary, the grass-fed meat industry is focused on substantial volume expansion to transition from a niche offering to a more established presence in the overall meat market, driven by consumer values regarding health, animal welfare, and sustainability. [4, 18]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[4] https://www.agriculturedive.com/news/grass-fed-beef-demand-ranch-consumer-sustainability/716061/
[14] https://stellarix.com/insights/articles/exploring-the-benefits-and-future-of-cultured-meat-products/
[17] https://civileats.com/2024/01/31/investment-is-flowing-to-us-grass-fed-beef-again-will-it-scale-up/
[19] https://www.agriculturedive.com/news/grass-fed-beef-demand-ranch-consumer-sustainability/716061/
p.s. Can someone get this to Bernie Sanders? If he's going to propose a moratorium on AI datacenters (which I think is a good idea), maybe he should also make sure that carbon offsets associated with them are properly accounted for and that consideration for improved soil management (which will largely happen through regen grazing) be a key component.
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