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The problem with most economic thinkers and their thoughts is that they grossly oversimplify the nature of the elephant they are dealing with.� Douglas was no exception.�� Helge
From: johng...@hotmail.com
There is a considerable number of economists who have now come round to the need for government deficit spending, i.e. that there is a shortage of purchasing power in the economy.� They are appalled at what austerity is doing in Europe and the USA.� The next step is to get them to realise that it can be done without incurring debt. Some now think that debt doesn't matter because sovereign nations owe it to their own central banks.�They are mainly of the MMT school.� Economic Reform Australia (ERA) is a melting pot for this.� Possibly the first some of them heard of Douglas was when I had an item published in their newsletter suggesting it was a disaster that his analysis had been overlooked for so long.� ERA is now considering seriously the principle of a National Dividend.� Results are got, not by sniping from the side, but by joining in and using a reasoned approach. It does work with people who are secure in their own ideas.��� Regards.� J R
From: jimsch...@gmail.com
Right on Steve, keep on bugging him.� I think that many economists owe a great deal to Douglas but fail to acknowledge him
On Sun, May 19, 2013 at 11:25 PM, Steve Hummel BenFranklinWasRight <ataus...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Here is his latest column for the Australian Business Spectator. He
talks about the conflicting theories of price (neo-classical/supply
and demand, versus cost plus) and mentions that a recent discovery
from his monetary software called Minsky is responsible for a change
in his thinking.
I have been a pain in the @ss posting about Social Credit philosophy
and mechanisms on his blog for well over a year. I'd like to think
perhaps some of it has sunk in. Maybe its just wishful thinking, but
who knows. He is the most vocal and stark economic iconoclast out
there currently. Here is an excerpt from the article:
"The reason that reality refuses to follow theory is that most goods
are produced in factories which engineers designed to work at maximum
efficiency when they are close to full capacity. So rather than
efficiency falling as output rises, it tends instead to rise: it�s
cheaper to produce each unit of output in a busy factory than in a
relatively idle one.
This empirical fact hasn�t interfered with economic theory at all � as
any current or past victim of an economics degree can attest. But it
does seem to decide the case in favour of the classicals for the real
world: prices must be set by a mark-up on costs, rather than by the
�twin blades� supply and demand.
That�s the opinion I held, until a crucial step in generalising my
model of Minsky�s Financial Instability Hypothesis implied that, at a
macro level, the two models are identical. I�ll get on to that � and
the role of prices in economic instability � in the next post in this
series."
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/20/economy/seductive-super-models-supply-and-demand#comment-300661
Deficit spending is inevitable (as a long-term average) for the simple reason that it provides the only basis, within the current monetary framework, for maintaining growth in the supply of state fiat money. Without this growth the demands of the private sector for credit money (currently produced by banks) and currency could not possibly be met, and deflation would set in. It is significant that the secular trend (available from federal government budget statistics during the past 100 years) is for deficits to be the norm and for surpluses to be the exception. In the U.S. for example, 85% of annual federal budgets are in deficit. Moreover it is no coincidence that the magnitude of the annual deficit happens to be very close to the annual rate of growth in productivity, measured as GDP. I would submit that there is a causal relationship between the two.
In regard to John's insistence that central government deficits can be financed without incurring debt, I agree that this is true in principle. However I would also point out that the public debt of a sovereign government is not really debt at all, because it never needs to be paid back. That is, a sovereign government (by which I mean one which creates and issues its own currency) can roll over its public debt in perpetuity. Moreover such public debt is mostly generated in response to any contraction in private sector debt (increase in private sector savings) -- that is, it is structural rather than discretionary. And the reverse is true - when private sector debt increases, public sector debt is reduced. Such is the dynamics of a debt-driven economy. The debt that is responsible for doing serious damage to the economy is not the central government's public debt, but rather it is private sector debt - a conjunction of household debt, corporate debt, and foreign debt - one or more of which which will grow inordinately when there exist asset bubbles. These bubbles inevitably burst at some stage, leading to significant economic contraction and social dislocation.
And in regard to John's point about a national dividend, I have recently proposed a scheme in which what I prefer to describe as an ongoing national dividend may be created and distributed to the entire population by a modification of the mechanism for implementing monetary policy. The virtue of this scheme is that it allows money to grow in an endogenous manner. In an endogenous system, the amount of money created is determined by the demand of the private sector for credit and currency. Most monetary reformers seem to think that the only alternative to the present system is an exogenous banking system. Nothing could be further from the truth. With the exception of the Chicago Plan, almost all proposed full reserve systems envision exogenous money growth directly controlled by the government. I don't think an exogenous system is workable in the long run because it is too easily politicized and corrupted.
John Hermann
On 24/05/2013 12:13 AM, helge nome wrote:
The problem with most economic thinkers and their thoughts is that they grossly oversimplify the nature of the elephant they are dealing with. Douglas was no exception. Helge
From: johng...@hotmail.com
There is a considerable number of economists who have now come round to the need for government deficit spending, i.e. that there is a shortage of purchasing power in the economy. They are appalled at what austerity is doing in Europe and the USA. The next step is to get them to realise that it can be done without incurring debt. Some now think that debt doesn't matter because sovereign nations owe it to their own central banks. They are mainly of the MMT school. Economic Reform Australia (ERA) is a melting pot for this. Possibly the first some of them heard of Douglas was when I had an item published in their newsletter suggesting it was a disaster that his analysis had been overlooked for so long. ERA is now considering seriously the principle of a National Dividend. Results are got, not by sniping from the side, but by joining in and using a reasoned approach. It does work with people who are secure in their own ideas. Regards. J R
From: jimsch...@gmail.com
Right on Steve, keep on bugging him. I think that many economists owe a great deal to Douglas but fail to acknowledge him
On Sun, May 19, 2013 at 11:25 PM, Steve Hummel BenFranklinWasRight <ataus...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Here is his latest column for the Australian Business Spectator. He
talks about the conflicting theories of price (neo-classical/supply
and demand, versus cost plus) and mentions that a recent discovery
from his monetary software called Minsky is responsible for a change
in his thinking.
I have been a pain in the @ss posting about Social Credit philosophy
and mechanisms on his blog for well over a year. I'd like to think
perhaps some of it has sunk in. Maybe its just wishful thinking, but
who knows. He is the most vocal and stark economic iconoclast out
there currently. Here is an excerpt from the article:
"The reason that reality refuses to follow theory is that most goods
are produced in factories which engineers designed to work at maximum
efficiency when they are close to full capacity. So rather than
efficiency falling as output rises, it tends instead to rise: it’s
cheaper to produce each unit of output in a busy factory than in a
relatively idle one.
This empirical fact hasn’t interfered with economic theory at all – as
any current or past victim of an economics degree can attest. But it
does seem to decide the case in favour of the classicals for the real
world: prices must be set by a mark-up on costs, rather than by the
‘twin blades’ supply and demand.
That’s the opinion I held, until a crucial step in generalising my
model of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis implied that, at a
macro level, the two models are identical. I’ll get on to that – and
the role of prices in economic instability – in the next post in this
series."
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/20/economy/seductive-super-models-supply-and-demand#comment-300661
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.... I agree with you that the control of monetary spending by the State is of the greatest concern. �As previously observed, this is what we have today on a grand and expanding scale. �But that spending gives the Government control over policy. �The Social Credit consumer credits issued as National Dividends and Compensated Prices are an inalienable inheritance �which removes from the State its claim to mobilize resources at its own discretion and places this power directly and increasingly in the hands of consumers. � The Social Credit policy of distribution is entirely different and rests on an entirely higher plane than the current methods of attempting to redistribute an increasing insufficiency.
On 25/05/2013 6:20 PM, Wallace Klinck wrote:
.... I agree with you that the control of monetary spending by the State is of the greatest concern. As previously observed, this is what we have today on a grand and expanding scale. But that spending gives the Government control over policy. The Social Credit consumer credits issued as National Dividends and Compensated Prices are an inalienable inheritance which removes from the State its claim to mobilize resources at its own discretion and places this power directly and increasingly in the hands of consumers. The Social Credit policy of distribution is entirely different and rests on an entirely higher plane than the current methods of attempting to redistribute an increasing insufficiency.
The dividend scheme that I have recently proposed involves the creation of state fiat money by the central monetary authority in a non-inflationary manner (the mechanism by which this is achieved is explained in my proposal). The creation of this fiat money allows the same quantity of credit money to be deposited in the bank accounts of every adult citizen -- on an ongoing basis.
The overall mechanism does not involve direct Treasury spending of any sort. Thus in this scheme the government has no ability to control or direct the distribution of the dividend payments.
Obviously the scheme would need to be set up by a legislative Act. I will post the details within the next two days.
John Hermann
Hi John,
Could I please get more info about your proposed scheme? As you probably know there are now two Guaranteed Basic Income initiatives officially running in EU and Swiss and I also promote it in my writings in Poland. Your endogenous money grow model would be suitable for similar projects.
Best regardsKristof Levandovski
Wiadomość napisana w dniu 2013-05-24, o godz. 07:04, przez John Hermann:
Deficit spending is inevitable (as a long-term average) for the simple reason that it provides the only basis, within the current monetary framework, for maintaining growth in the supply of state fiat money. Without this growth the demands of the private sector for credit money (currently produced by banks) and currency could not possibly be met, and deflation would set in. It is significant that the secular trend (available from federal government budget statistics during the past 100 years) is for deficits to be the norm and for surpluses to be the exception. In the U.S. for example, 85% of annual federal budgets are in deficit. Moreover it is no coincidence that the magnitude of the annual deficit happens to be very close to the annual rate of growth in productivity, measured as GDP. I would submit that there is a causal relationship between the two.
In regard to John's insistence that central government deficits can be financed without incurring debt, I agree that this is true in principle. However I would also point out that the public debt of a sovereign government is not really debt at all, because it never needs to be paid back. That is, a sovereign government (by which I mean one which creates and issues its own currency) can roll over its public debt in perpetuity. Moreover such public debt is mostly generated in response to any contraction in private sector debt (increase in private sector savings) -- that is, it is structural rather than discretionary. And the reverse is true - when private sector debt increases, public sector debt is reduced. Such is the dynamics of a debt-driven economy. The debt that is responsible for doing serious damage to the economy is not the central government's public debt, but rather it is private sector debt - a conjunction of household debt, corporate debt, and foreign debt - one or more of which which will grow inordinately when there exist asset bubbles. These bubbles inevitably burst at some stage, leading to significant economic contraction and social dislocation.
And in regard to John's point about a national dividend, I have recently proposed a scheme in which what I prefer to describe as an ongoing national dividend may be created and distributed to the entire population by a modification of the mechanism for implementing monetary policy. The virtue of this scheme is that it allows money to grow in an endogenous manner. In an endogenous system, the amount of money created is determined by the demand of the private sector for credit and currency. Most monetary reformers seem to think that the only alternative to the present system is an exogenous banking system. Nothing could be further from the truth. With the exception of the Chicago Plan, almost all proposed full reserve systems envision exogenous money growth directly controlled by the government. I don't think an exogenous system is workable in the long run because it is too easily politicized and corrupted.
John Hermann
On 24/05/2013 12:13 AM, helge nome wrote:
The problem with most economic thinkers and their thoughts is that they grossly oversimplify the nature of the elephant they are dealing with. Douglas was no exception. Helge
From: johng...@hotmail.com
There is a considerable number of economists who have now come round to the need for government deficit spending, i.e. that there is a shortage of purchasing power in the economy. They are appalled at what austerity is doing in Europe and the USA. The next step is to get them to realise that it can be done without incurring debt. Some now think that debt doesn't matter because sovereign nations owe it to their own central banks. They are mainly of the MMT school. Economic Reform Australia (ERA) is a melting pot for this. Possibly the first some of them heard of Douglas was when I had an item published in their newsletter suggesting it was a disaster that his analysis had been overlooked for so long. ERA is now considering seriously the principle of a National Dividend. Results are got, not by sniping from the side, but by joining in and using a reasoned approach. It does work with people who are secure in their own ideas. Regards. J R
From: jimsch...@gmail.com
Right on Steve, keep on bugging him. I think that many economists owe a great deal to Douglas but fail to acknowledge him
On Sun, May 19, 2013 at 11:25 PM, Steve Hummel BenFranklinWasRight <ataus...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Here is his latest column for the Australian Business Spectator. He
talks about the conflicting theories of price (neo-classical/supply
and demand, versus cost plus) and mentions that a recent discovery
from his monetary software called Minsky is responsible for a change
in his thinking.
I have been a pain in the @ss posting about Social Credit philosophy
and mechanisms on his blog for well over a year. I'd like to think
perhaps some of it has sunk in. Maybe its just wishful thinking, but
who knows. He is the most vocal and stark economic iconoclast out
there currently. Here is an excerpt from the article:
"The reason that reality refuses to follow theory is that most goods
are produced in factories which engineers designed to work at maximum
efficiency when they are close to full capacity. So rather than
efficiency falling as output rises, it tends instead to rise: it’s
cheaper to produce each unit of output in a busy factory than in a
relatively idle one.
This empirical fact hasn’t interfered with economic theory at all – as
any current or past victim of an economics degree can attest. But it
does seem to decide the case in favour of the classicals for the real
world: prices must be set by a mark-up on costs, rather than by the
‘twin blades’ supply and demand.
That’s the opinion I held, until a crucial step in generalising my
model of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis implied that, at a
macro level, the two models are identical. I’ll get on to that – and
the role of prices in economic instability – in the next post in this
series."
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/20/economy/seductive-super-models-supply-and-demand#comment-300661