Obama Benefits as Blacks, Democrats, First-Timers Vote Early
Jim Higgins
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.A1ueaDC_ek&refer=home
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama
has an edge in six of eight states that provide early-voting data by
party registration, as Democrats, blacks and first-time voters cast
ballots in unprecedented numbers.
In North Carolina and Louisiana, which voted Republican in the last two
elections, Democrats outnumber Republicans in early voting so far by a
2-to-1 margin. In Iowa, Obama's party accounted for 52 percent of early
voters, compared with 28 percent for Republicans.
In Florida and Colorado, the parties are in a dead heat, with more
Republicans mailing absentee ballots and more Democrats showing up to
vote in person. In two other swing states, Ohio and New Mexico, which
were both carried by President George W. Bush in 2004, the Democrats
have the advantage.
In states where racial data are available, Illinois Senator Obama, the
first black candidate to be nominated by a major party, is benefiting
from record turnout among African-Americans. Surveys show that more than
90 percent of black voters favor the Democrat over Republican John McCain.
`Numbers Look Good'
``The numbers look good for Obama,'' said Michael McDonald, a political
scientist at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, who
specializes in voter turnout.
Thirty-two states don't require an excuse for early voting, either
in-person or by mail, and experts said at least a third of voters
nationwide are expected to cast ballots before Nov. 4, up from 22
percent four years ago.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll published yesterday showed Obama, 47,
leading Arizona Senator McCain, 72, by 26 points among likely voters who
said they planned to vote early; the Democrat's advantage narrows to 7
points among those who plan to wait until Election Day.
While Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage at polling stations so far,
experts said Republicans could make up some of the difference.
The early numbers may represent ``pent-up eagerness among Democrats to
finally cast their ballot,'' McDonald said. It isn't yet clear, however,
whether this is an ``initial burst'' or ``do we start at this level and
go up?''
Still, the trends so far are encouraging for the Obama campaign, which
is better organized and has invested more in pushing early voting than
the McCain camp, especially in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado,
Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina.
Early-Vote Rallies
Early-vote rallies in Florida headlined by Obama or his wife Michelle
have drawn more than 120,000 supporters, said campaign spokesman Nick
Shapiro. On Oct. 10, in Ross County, Ohio, Obama spoke in front of a
polling place, and Governor Ted Strickland urged supporters to vote
after the event. In Dayton, Ohio, on Oct. 6, actor Cuba Gooding Jr. led
Obama supporters to a local polling place.
The campaign has made information on how and where to vote early
searchable on a Web site. After one Florida rally, it provided buses to
polling stations.
Jon Carson, national field director for the Obama campaign, said the
effort was capturing a new segment of the electorate.
``In some states, as many as a one-third of those who are turning out
are either first-time voters or ones who haven't voted in last two
election cycles,'' said Carson, citing Iowa and North Carolina.
McCain campaign spokesmen didn't respond to requests for comment.
Unprecedented
Johnnie McLean, deputy director of the North Carolina State Board of
Elections, said early-vote turnout is unprecedented. According to the
latest data, 56 percent of those who have already cast ballots are
Democrats, 27 percent are Republicans, and the rest aren't affiliated
with a major party.
In Georgia, more people have cast ballots in the first month of early
voting than turned out early during the 2004 election, said Matt
Carrothers, spokesman for Georgia's secretary of state. Thirty-six
percent of the state's voters so far are black, a 10 percentage point
jump from 2004.
In North Carolina, blacks were about 22 percent of the electorate four
years ago; they are 29 percent of early voters so far this year, state
figures show.
David Bositis, senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and
Economic Studies, a Washington-based research organization, said if
these increases in black turnout are replicated in other states, it
could make a difference for Obama.
`Split the White Vote'
Four years ago, 56 percent of black voting-age citizens voted; this
year, Bositis expects 65 percent to 70 percent to vote. Considering
Obama's overwhelming support among black voters, if he ``continues to
split the white vote, he will win easily,'' Bositis said.
In Florida, at this time four years ago, Republicans were 52.4 percent
of early and absentee voters, while Democrats were 36 percent. Today,
they are tied, with about 43 percent of early and mail-in votes cast by
Republicans and about 42 percent cast by Democrats, state figures show.
Based on historical data, even a tie in early voting isn't good news for
Republicans.
Early voters have tended to be ``more Republican than their Election Day
peers,'' McDonald said. ``That's not true looking at these numbers now.''
Drive-Through
Many states are making early voting easier, from drive- through voting
booths in southern California to polling stations in shopping malls in
Florida.
Still, problems have cropped up. In Rensselaer County, New York,
absentee ballots were mailed out with the Democrat's last name
misspelled as ``Osama.'' In Palm Beach County, Florida, some elderly
voters said they were having trouble voting because of a requirement
that they draw a straight line across their ballot to mark their choice
and insert thick ballots into envelopes.
Long lines also have been a problem in south Florida and in Georgia. In
Forsyth County, Georgia, the board of elections has posted real-time
online updates advising voters of expected waiting times.
Forsyth is a predominantly white suburban community outside Atlanta
where registered Republicans far outnumber Democrats. Yet Democratic
turnout so far is double to triple what it was in 2004, said County
Elections Board chairman Gary Smith.
Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed
College in Portland, Oregon, said the Democrats had taken the lead
thanks to ``an army of volunteers.''
``There may be a big corps of Republican voters who will surge in last
couple of days, but right now it's like a 100-meter dash, with one side
starting meters ahead,'' he said.
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