"a425couple" <
a425c...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:o2a6q...@news3.newsguy.com...
> >From the news feed:
> 75 years ago, what if Japan never attacked Pearl Harbor?
> By Ishaan Tharoor December 7
>
> Few events in World War II were as defining as the Japanese assault on
> Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941. The "date which shall live in infamy" - as
> President Franklin D. Roosevelt famously put it - prompted the American
> entry into the
> war, subdued an entrenched isolationist faction in the country's politics
> and, in the long run, prefigured Washington's assumption of the role of
> global superpower.
It could be pointed out with Europe committed to self destruction the
rise of the US was being accelerated whether the US fought or not.
The fighting gave the US military real credibility as a fighting force.
In Japanese terms of course it was 8 December.
> 2,403 Americans died and 19 vessels were either sunk or badly damaged in
> the attack, which involved more than 350 warplanes launched from Japanese
> carriers that had secretly made their way to a remote expanse of the North
> Pacific. It caught the brass in Hawaii by surprise and stunned the nation.
So basic fact insertion, the only point that might be in addition was
the majority of the 68 civilians included in the killed total were probably
due to friendly fire.
Should that read via a remote expanse, 200 miles from Oahu is not
that remote.
> "With astounding success," Time magazine wrote, "the little man has
> clipped the big fellow."
>
> But the big fellow would hit back. Japan's bold strike is now largely seen
> as an act of "strategic imbecility," a move born out of militarist,
> ideological fervor that provoked a ruinous war Japan could never win and
> ended in mushroom clouds and hideous death and destruction at home.
Essentially if Japan was to win going to war in 1941 was about
the best chance, but it relied on the war in Europe going better
for the axis, and US attitudes, essentially factors largely outside
Japan's control.
> Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, the Japanese naval commander, hoped his plan to
> attack on Pearl Harbor would deliver a fatal blow to American capabilities
> in the Pacific and persuade Washington to push for a political settlement.
> Otherwise, he knew that his country stood no chance against the United
> States in a protracted war, according to Steve Twomey, author of a new
> book on the tense build-up to Pearl Harbor.
This is incorrect, Yamamoto did not consider Pearl Harbor alone
to be enough, it was the strike designed to give the Japanese
a relatively free hand to occupy the initial war objectives in
South East Asia.
If Yamamoto had a free hand he would have done more than
strike at Pearl Harbor if Japan was only at war with the US. His
plan was to keep striking the US while Japan had superiority as
seen at Midway and Guadalcanal in the hope of forcing negotiations.
Yamamoto is on record as warning US morale and resolution
was strong, much more than Russia in 1904 or China.
> Twomey documents Yamamoto's initial opposition to engaging the United
> States: "In a drawn-out conflict, 'Japan's resources will be depleted,
> battleships and weaponry will be damaged, replenishing materials will be
> impossible,' Yamamoto wrote on September 29 to the chief of the Naval
> General Staff. 'Japan will wind up 'impoverished,' and any war 'with so
> little chance of success should not be fought.'"
Is this 1940? There is plenty of Yamamoto's words showing he had
a very accurate appreciation of Japan's chances against the US.
> But with war a fait accompli, Yamamoto conceived of a raid that
> would be so stunning that American morale would go "down to
> such an extent that it cannot be recovered," as he put it.
That would be an oversell and can be compared to his other
writings which made it clear the US was not that fragile.
Also the Pearl Harbor idea was around in January 1941, well
before war became inevitable. It was developed as war became
more likely.
> Unfortunately for him, the United States was galvanized by the
> assault - and had its fleet of aircraft carriers largely unscathed.
No carriers damaged, some carrier planes shot down.
> A plane carrying the Japanese admiral would be shot down
> over the Solomon Islands by American forces in 1943 with the U.S.
> counter-offensive already well underway.
Can it be pointed out allied counter offensive given the balance
of forces in theatre at the time?
> Could it have gone differently? No modern conflict has spawned more
> alternative histories than World War II. In the decades since, writers,
> Hollywood execs and amateur historians have indulged in all sorts of
> speculation: What the world would look like if the Axis powers triumphed,
> or if the Nazis crushed the Soviets, or if the United States had not
> deployed nuclear weapons, or if Roosevelt had chosen not to enter
> the war at all.
> But even if Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor, it's quite likely that
> the two sides would have still clashed.
Given what Hitler wanted very little of the world would have escaped
and Japan had a military that was willing to take what it could get.
> The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the USS Arizona on Dec. 7, 1941,
> pushed the U.S. into World War II. But the battleship wasn't supposed to
> be docked at the harbor on that date. The Post's Michael Ruane takes us
> back to that fateful day in American history. (Claritza Jimenez, Michael
> Ruane/The Washington Post)
Where exactly was the Arizona supposed to be? Sunday was the
day most of the USN tried to be in port when at peace.
> Japan's will to power
>
> For imperial Japan, the United States posed a fundamental obstacle to its
> expanding position in the Pacific. Here was a resource-hungry island
> nation eager to assert itself on the world stage in the same way European
> powers had done in centuries prior.
Now if this article had been from say a non US publisher what is the
chance the above European would be replaced by US, the move into
the interior of North America, the war with Spain, the Monroe doctrine?
As for resource hungry that really overstates it, Australia used about the
same amount of oil on a tenth the population. It was an excuse more
than a necessity or if you like the near current economic thought, control
of raw materials.
> By the summer of 1941, it had seized a
> considerable swath of East Asia, from Manchuria and Korea to the north to
> the formerly French territories of Indochina further south, and was
> embroiled in a bitter war in China.
Back to simple summary, and northern summer of course. And the
time line ignores the escalation of sanctions and Japanese actions
through 1940 and 1941. By the way should Manchuria and Korea
be formerly Chinese territories, or Korea formerly Korean to stay
consistent?
> American sanctions attempted to rein in Tokyo: Washington slapped on
> embargoes on oil and other goods essential to Japan's war machine. The
> price to have them lifted - a Japanese withdrawal from China, as well as
> the abandonment of its "tripartite" alliance with Germany and Italy -
> proved too steep and humiliating. So Japan calculated further expansion
> in order to access the resources it needed.
US sanctions alone were not enough, the British and Dutch had to agree.
And those were the terms, as opposed to stopping the war in China?
On 9 April 1941 a group of private citizens, with help from the Japanese
Ambassador, proposed a solution as
These principles, or points, were:
(a) Respect for the territory, integrity, and sovereignty of all nations;
(b) Non-interference in the internal affairs of others;
(c) Equality, as of commercial opportunity;
(d) No change in the Pacific status quo except by peaceful means.
This was considered acceptable enough for the US.
On 3 May the official Japanese reply was for a neutrality pact like
the one signed with the USSR on 13 April, the reply was handed
over on 7 May. On 9 May came the idea from Tokyo that China
should sign a treaty like the one in place with the Japanese
version of the Chinese government.
Positions hardened when Japan occupied southern French Indo
China in July.
Japan was not going to give up on the tripartite pact, the US wanted
assurances about what that meant in terms of Japan's actions if the
US ended up at war with Germany, none were given.
> "Our increasing economic pressure on Japan, plus the militaristic cast of
> the government ... and their partial loss of face in China, spelled a
> probable resumption of their policy of conquest," mused a lengthy essay in
> the Atlantic, published in 1948. "In what direction would the Japanese
> strike, and against whom?"
So if someone is probably going to keep attacking is it a good idea
to trade them relevant resources? Or the sanctions are the reason,
without them Japan would have stayed at peace?
> Japan opted not to venture into Soviet Siberia; in 1939, Japanese troops
> had suffered a chastening defeat at the hands of a combined Soviet and
> Mongolian army and its forces were already bogged down on various
> fronts in China.
The neutrality pact of April 1941 was a good clue.
> The decision was made to target the vulnerable British and Dutch
> colonies in Southeast Asia - what's now the independent nations of
> Burma, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The Japanese knew
> this would likely spur a greater response from the United States,
> which then controlled the Philippines and other scattered island
> possessions in the Pacific.
The Philippines did not have a great deal of war resources as such
though hemp for rope was important enough for Manila to be an
interchangeable word for rope.
> "Unwilling to give up what it wanted - greater empire - in return for the
> restoration of lost trade, unwilling to endure the humiliation of swift
> withdrawal from China, as the Americans wanted, Japan was going to
> seize the tin, nickel, rubber, and especially oil of the British and Dutch
> colonies," wrote Twomey.
>
> The rest is history. Some observers, though, reckon that American policy
> could have forced imperialist Japan's hand.
The alternative of course is the charge US oil powered Japan's
warships when they attacked Pearl Harbor etc. And the passive
keeps being moved to Japan, the active to America.
So as expected with a general article a simple background of the
history, with things like Japan wanting the US to pressure China
to agree to Japan's terms omitted, the US was for a negotiation
between the two with the US being more the broker.
> Abe to become first Japanese leader to visit Pearl Harbor
> Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit Pearl Harbor with President
> Obama, becoming his country's first leader to travel to the site of the
> Japanese attack 75 years ago that drew the United States into World War
> II.
> (Reuters)
>
> "Never inflict upon another major military power a policy which would
> cause you yourself to go to war unless you are fully prepared to engage
> that power militarily," wrote American historian Roland Worth Jr., in "No
> Choice But War: The United States Embargo against Japan and the
> Eruption of War in the Pacific." "And don't be surprised that if they do
> decide to retaliate, that they seek out a time and a place that inflicts
> maximum harm and humiliation upon your cause."
So retaliate, you caused it, rather than take action, they decided it.
An interesting attitude that keeps implying the US pushed Japan, not
Japan pushed the US by actions like aligning with the Nazis and moving
into Indo China.
So if the Japanese were passive then trading freely with them must
mean they would have stayed peaceful, despite the major expenditure
on the military.
> Roosevelt's battle with the isolationists
>
> Meanwhile, in the United States, President Roosevelt faced widespread
> public opposition to entering the war. The memory of World War I - a
> struggle many Americans believed wasn't worth fighting -
How about the world believed it was not worth fighting.
> still loomed large in the
> political imagination. Roosevelt faced off a 1940 election challenge by
> pandering to anti-war voters.
Pandering? Not acknowledging their views? Was the Republican
candidate pandering as well?
> "I have said this before, but I shall say it again and again and again,"
> he declared on the campaign trail in Boston in October 1940. "Your
> boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars."
Quite correct if peace could be maintained. If Japan accurately
measured what the US could do, the announced naval building
programs were a good clue, along with aircraft production, figures
for which were still being openly published in 1941.
> But Roosevelt was steadily trying to engage in the conflicts abroad, no
> matter his rhetoric. He was an avowed anti-fascist and was preoccupied
> more by Nazi aggression in Europe than Japanese inroads in Asia.
So FDR wanted into the war instead of FDR wanted to help
the good guys win.
Europe was more developed and after 1940 much harder for
the US to defeat Germany. Plus posed the risk of Britain
falling and the RN and French fleets becoming neutral or
worst case German controlled.
> His political opponents fretted that he would push toward a greater
> confrontation. This included figures from the America First movement, a
> big tent coalition of isolationists, nationalists, pacifists and, indeed,
> some anti-Semites, who wanted the United States to cling to a policy of
> neutrality and weren't that bothered by an ascendant fascism in Europe.
>
> Charles Lindbergh, the legendary aviator, was one of the more prominent
> champions of the America First cause.
>
> "The pall of the war seems to hang over us today. More and more people
> are simply giving in to it. Many say we are as good as in already. The
> attitude of the country seems to waver back and forth," Lindbergh wrote in
> his diary on Jan. 6, 1941. "Our greatest hope lies in the fact [that]
> eighty-five percent of the people in the United States (according to the
> latest polls) are against intervention."
So as things stood in January 1941, with it down to Germany versus
Britain in popular short hand the US did not want to become involved.
In June 1941 lots of communist leaning people became more interested
in helping the allied war effort. In July Japan's occupation of more
territory also pushed public opinion.
> In March 1941, Roosevelt persuaded Congress to pass the Lend-Lease Act,
> which "loaned" arms and ships to the beleaguered Allies in Europe. U.S.
> warships engaged Nazi submarines in the Atlantic and protected convoys
> bearing relief supplies to the British.
But the incidents with U-boats were months in the future in March
1941, along with the convoy escorts, partly triggered by the US taking
over the security of Iceland and Greenland.
> Months of secret diplomacy with
> British Prime Minister Winston Churchill already bound Roosevelt's
> administration to the Allied cause, but the United States was not yet
> formally in war.
There was no binding, there were agreements in terms of material
help and joint war plans and aims worked out for if the US became
involved. Like the British pre WWI the US idea was to avoid bindings.
> The attack on Pearl Harbor in December gave Roosevelt all the ammunition
> he needed. Germany, in alliance with Japan, declared war on the United
> States four days later, saving Roosevelt the trouble of having to do it
> himself.
Somehow it seems the invasion of the Philippines is not good enough.
> FDR's 'Infamy' speech The day after the attack on Pearl Harbor on
> Dec. 7, 1941, President Franklin
> Delano Roosevelt delivered a formal address to the joint Congressional
> session on Dec. 8. Here's an excerpt of the now-famous speech. (Jenny
> Starrs/The Washington Post)
>
> The isolationists were defeated. "I can see nothing to do under these
> circumstances except to fight. If I had been in Congress, I certainly
> would have voted for a declaration of war," Lindbergh lamented. Other
> politicians in Congress, mostly Republicans, would soon lose elections
> and become an irrelevant wing of the party.
Quoting their attitudes in 1940 and 1941 versus the new reality would
be a good campaign tactic.
> Without the American entry into World War II, it's possible Japan would
> have consolidated its position of supremacy in East Asia and that the war
> in Europe could have dragged on for far longer than it did.
By definition less allied force should see a prolonged war, against
that is the large merchant shipping losses off the America's in 1942
and associated long term effects on allied war making abilities.
South East Asia represented 80% of the worlds rubber and 66% of the
world's tin supply. The temptation for the Japanese to impose trade
sanctions on the US in a reversal of the 1940 and 1941 ones would
have been high.
Also present were at least come iron and aluminium mines, along
with lead, antimony and tungsten.
>The U.S.'s role in
> the war forced Nazi Germany to commit a sizeable troop presence in Western
> Europe that it would have otherwise diverted to the withering invasion of
> the Soviet Union. It helped turn the tide of battle.
It is generally agreed if Germany did not defeat the USSR by the
end of the 1942 summer campaign the result was probably going
to be the USSR winning.
So the US commitment of 4 divisions to England by the end of
August 1942 played a big part in German army deployments? The
the over 30 commonwealth divisions in England and the Middle
East played no part. Nor did the need for occupation troops in
all the conquered territory play a part (and this was a big one),
Only the US forces. Yes this was written for a US audience.
On 15 June 1942 there were 31 German divisions in the
west and south, plus 12 in Norway, mostly guarding against
western attack. Out of around 233 divisions. The US had 1
infantry division in Iceland and 1 infantry and 1 armoured in
England as of end May.
What the western allies did in 1942 to turn the tide was ship
resources and weapons to the USSR, but the amount and
delays involved meant a limited impact.
So FDR could have saved the USSR by staying at peace and
deploying a corps or two into Iceland in 1942? Thereby forcing
major changes to the German army dispositions?
In April 1944 the Germans had 238 divisions, 81 in the west
and south (including around 14 in Yugoslavia), plus 19 in Norway.
The US had 28 in England and the Mediterranean. Part of the
German deployments were replacements for Italian and Vichy
French forces.
> For decades since, though, conspiracy theories have surrounded Roosevelt's
> role in the build-up to Pearl Harbor, with a coterie of revisionist
> historians alleging he deliberately bungled military coordination and
> obscured intelligence in order to provoke the crisis that led to war. Most
> mainstream historians dismiss these claims.
Ah yes the generalist confronted with a lot of detail makes the
generalist "most dismiss" the conspiracy claims leaving the
reader who wants to believe still able to say they have support.
The revisionists mostly concentrate on the claims FDR knew the
Japanese plan to attack Perl Harbor. The claims about sanctions
provoking Japan do exist, along with similar claims for today
regarding places like Iran, North Korea and Russia.
> "He was totally caught off guard by it," Roosevelt biographer Jean Edward
> Smith told NPR this week. "The record is clear. There was no evidence of
> the Japanese moving toward Pearl Harbor that was picked up in Washington."
So FDR is charged with failing military co-ordination, what ever that
means, MacArthur using his air force, leaving his supplies in Bataan?
Kimmel and Short having more integrated plans?
FDR obscured intelligence is interesting, he ordered some message
suppressed? Or ordered specific interpretations become official?
>
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/12/07/75-years-ago-what-if-japan-never-attacked-pearl-harbor/?utm_term=.2b8621cc5a60
Geoffrey Sinclair
Remove the nb for email.