U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine

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https://www.axios.com/us-ukraine-russia-invasion-f54a180a-3b52-45f7-9774-067e28da8450.html

dated Dec 4, 2021 - Politics & Policy
U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine
Jonathan Swan

Conscripts line up at a Russian railway station yesterday before
departing for Army service. Photo: Sergei Malgavko/TASS via Getty Images

The Biden administration is "deeply concerned" by new intelligence —
detailed for Axios and other outlets — showing Russia stepping up
preparations to invade Ukraine as soon as early 2022.

Why it matters: Most of this was known from public sources and satellite
imagery, but the administration is sending a stronger signal by
releasing specific details from the intelligence community.

Between the lines: Multiple sources who've seen the classified
intelligence told Axios that some of Vladimir Putin’s covert actions
make them think he's more serious about an invasion than he was when he
menaced Ukraine in April with a large-scale troop build-up.

The White House is still trying to head off an invasion through
diplomacy. President Biden's aides intensified rhetoric this week to
counter what they call a Russian disinformation campaign to question the
existence of evidence.
Ahead of a video call between Biden and Putin on Tuesday, the
administration is holding intense conversations with allies and Russia
and preparing a menu of possible responses, including heavy sanctions.

Ahead of the call, press secretary Jen Psaki on Saturday released a
statement nothing that Biden plans to use Tuesday's conversation to
"underscore U.S. concerns with Russian military activities on the border
with Ukraine and reaffirm the United States’ support for the sovereignty
and territorial integrity of Ukraine."
The details: An administration official tells us the scale of Russian
forces would be "twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s
rapid military buildup near Ukraine’s borders."

"The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups
with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery, and
equipment," the official told us.
"We estimate half of these units are already near Ukraine’s border."
On the information warfare front, U.S. intelligence "indicates Russian
influence proxies and media outlets have started to increase content
denigrating Ukraine and NATO."
The bottom line: Putin has already achieved a substantial return on
investment for his expensive whole-of-government operation to prepare
for an invasion.

He's induced a state of panic inside Ukraine ... destabilized an already
politically weakened leader in Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky
... and forced the West to scramble to figure out how to deter him — and
whether to ultimately offer Putin concessions on his Ukrainian
territorial ambitions.
Go deeper: On "Axios on HBO," Jonathan Swan presses NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on whether the alliance would do
anything meaningful to defend Ukraine.