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An interesting Quora How long will Israel survive as a nation-state?
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a425couple
Apr 18, 2021, 11:40:41 PM4/18/21
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An interesting Quora
Daniel Schwartz
Updated August 29, 2020
I'm doing my best to live forever or die trying.
How long will Israel survive as a nation-state? What is the honest
opinion of the people of Israel about its long-term survival?
“How long will Israel survive as a nation-state? What is the honest
opinion of the people of Israel about its long-term survival?”
Well, let’s look at some trends.
When the modern State of Israel was established in 1948, it was a
country barely hanging on. It was established thanks to a
near-miraculous UN vote, followed by a near-miraculous victory in the
war that followed. This country of 600,000 people — which had just
suffered an enormous 1% casualties in its war of independence, and was
reeling from that, doubled in population over just a few years as Jews
started streaming in from all over the Middle East.
Twenty years later, Israel still faced an existential threat from its
neighbors… but its military, and its intelligence apparatus, were so
good that, in a war intended to exterminate Israel, Israel instead
quadrupled in size, grabbing land from Syria, Egypt, and Jordan… and
doing it all in six days! It seems that Israel was a lot stronger than
it had been.
Today Israel is stronger and more capable than ever. Israel does not
threaten its neighbors… but when they threaten Israel, Israel takes care
of business, quickly and efficiently, and goes home. Iran threatens
Israel with destruction; Israel sneaks into Iran undetected, steals a
half ton of top-secret documents about Iran’s nuclear-weapons programs,
and makes them public. Syria builds a chemical-weapons factory,
surrounded by the latest state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft missiles
to protect it… and Israel destroys it, from the air, after disabling the
anti-aircraft remotely.
You see what I mean? People keep talking about wanting to destroy
Israel… and Israel demonstrates, again and again, that they are not even
remotely in Israel’s league.
When Israel was established, its economy struggled; the most famous
export was “Jaffa oranges”. Some decades later, Israel’s exports, from
computer technology to agriculture to water reclamation to medical
advances, are the envy of the world. Hi-tech companies all over the
world set up shop in Israel, to take advantage of Israel’s pool of
unparalleled talent and entrepreneurship. Israeli inventions and new
technologies are everywhere; if you wanted to boycott Israeli technology
completely, you’d need to live in a cave.
In other words, Israel’s positive influence on the world has grown
steadily, and it continues to grow.
And now we see Israel’s diplomatic influence growing. Once it seemed
that Israel had hardly a friend in the world; France sold Israel weapons
until 1967, and then refused to sell any more, even refusing to deliver
some that had already been paid for. Once it seemed that the entire Arab
world was united in its hatred of Israel. But two of Israel’s most
implacable foes, Egypt and Jordan, have signed and honored peace
treaties with Israel — and recently, the UAE has signed as well. More
importantly, other Arab countries have expressed their understanding
(and approval?) of this latest development, suggesting that more
treaties could soon follow — and these, by all appearances, would be
treaties based on economic self-interest, not politics. Increasingly,
the Arab world seems to understand that they have a lot to gain from
being a friend of Israel — much more than they ever gained as Israel’s
enemy.
How long will Israel survive as a nation-state? As of August 2020,
Israel has never been stronger, never been more confident of its place
in the world… and Israel shows every sign of continuing so, as far as
the eye can see.
The world is a better place because of Israel. Israel will survive, and
thrive, and continue to contribute to the world… and we can all be
grateful for that.
EDIT: Thanks to David Weiser for reminding me that the modern State of
Israel was not established by the UN. Rather, a UN vote provided
international recognition of a potential Jewish State… and left it to
fend for itself in the war that inevitably followed.
The UN vote meant that Israel had legitimacy in the eyes of the world,
if Israel could survive an invasion, in indefensible borders, by seven
national armies. Somehow Israel did.
Thanks also to Kenneth Gelnick for correcting my terminology.
Technicalities matter!
27.3K viewsView 308 upvotesView shares
--------------------
David Weiser
August 28, 2020
Good reply except for the part of Israel being established by a UN vote.
Let’s put the myth that the UN created Israel to rest. It was the Jews
who declared independence and fought for it.
Profile photo for Daniel Schwartz
Daniel Schwartz
August 28, 2020
Thanks! I’ve added a correction.
Nagi Obad
October 15, 2020
It’s was the britts who handed it to you in the first place if you
really want to call it for what it is.
Yoel Ben-Avraham
October 15, 2020
Actually it was the League of Nations who *simultaneously* created what
would become the countries of Lebanon,Syria,Iraq, Jordan and Saudia.
The so called Balfour Declaration was simple the British Government's
public endorsement of the movement that culumated with the League of
Nation's decision at San Remo.
Kenneth Gelnick
August 29, 2020
Mr. Schwartz, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the modern State
of Israel was established in 1948 or that the State of Israel was
re-established in 1948. After all, it is the third (or is it the 4th)
Jewish state in the Land of Israel.
Profile photo for Daniel Schwartz
Daniel Schwartz
August 29, 2020
Fair enough! Thanks.
Timothy J Bradley
October 22
The Jews survived the Holocaust and pledged that “never again” would
that happen. They meant exactly that. There is no way on God’s earth
that they would refrain from using nuclear weapons if the existence of
the state of Israel was threatened- at least I would hope they wouldn’t
hesitate.
Daniel Schwartz
October 22
Israel has never admitted owning nuclear weapons, although this is
sometimes referred to as “the worst-kept secret in the Middle East”.
Israel’s response to the question, unchanged since the 1960s, is that
Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into a Middle
East conflict.
If Israel does have nuclear weapons — which I assume it does — then they
exist for precisely that purpose. If ever country X has the means to
wipe out Israel in one stroke, Israel would deter such a move, by making
sure that Country X would not survive such a move.
Bob Smith
September 23, 2020
Your initial statement was correct: “It was established thanks to a
near-miraculous UN vote.” Weiser is playing with semantics. Getting
unity on the Security Council was miraculous. The fact that Israelis had
to fight to defend their new state is simply a fact of history.
Timothy J Bradley
October 22
Not a miracle. The USSR boycotted the Security Council, unless I am
mistaken, in which case please correct me.
Daniel Schwartz
October 22
The USSR did not boycott the UN Security Council vote of Nov. 29 1947.
Crucially, it was because the USSR was there, voting for partition, that
numerous USSR client states also voted for partition.
Nobody expected the US and the USSR to vote on the same side in the UN.
It would only happen a handful of times in history. But it happened that
day, when it was utterly necessary to get a two-thirds vote in favor of
partition. That’s why I called the vote “near-miraculous” from Israel’s
point of view.
Thomas Mitchell
December 8
As numerous Israeli historians have pointed out the Israeli victory in
1948 was not miraculous or even near-miraculous, but rather the result
of much greater motivation and willingness to sacrifice on the part of
the Jews than on the part of their Arab opponents. The Palestinians
demonstrated in 1948 that they were not yet a nation but a collection of
villages each of which made its own decision to either flee or make an
arrangement with the local Zionist forces. After June 1948 in the
subsequent phases of the war the IDF forces actually outnumbered their
Arab opponents. The biggest danger that Israel faces isn’t from its Arab
neighbors but from the demographic threat posed by the non-Zionist
sectors (Arab, ultra-Orthodox) of the population. These sectors have
greater birthrates than do the secular Jews and immigration from the
diaspora is drying up.
Daniel Schwartz
Updated August 29, 2020
I'm doing my best to live forever or die trying.
How long will Israel survive as a nation-state? What is the honest
opinion of the people of Israel about its long-term survival?
“How long will Israel survive as a nation-state? What is the honest
opinion of the people of Israel about its long-term survival?”
Well, let’s look at some trends.
When the modern State of Israel was established in 1948, it was a
country barely hanging on. It was established thanks to a
near-miraculous UN vote, followed by a near-miraculous victory in the
war that followed. This country of 600,000 people — which had just
suffered an enormous 1% casualties in its war of independence, and was
reeling from that, doubled in population over just a few years as Jews
started streaming in from all over the Middle East.
Twenty years later, Israel still faced an existential threat from its
neighbors… but its military, and its intelligence apparatus, were so
good that, in a war intended to exterminate Israel, Israel instead
quadrupled in size, grabbing land from Syria, Egypt, and Jordan… and
doing it all in six days! It seems that Israel was a lot stronger than
it had been.
Today Israel is stronger and more capable than ever. Israel does not
threaten its neighbors… but when they threaten Israel, Israel takes care
of business, quickly and efficiently, and goes home. Iran threatens
Israel with destruction; Israel sneaks into Iran undetected, steals a
half ton of top-secret documents about Iran’s nuclear-weapons programs,
and makes them public. Syria builds a chemical-weapons factory,
surrounded by the latest state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft missiles
to protect it… and Israel destroys it, from the air, after disabling the
anti-aircraft remotely.
You see what I mean? People keep talking about wanting to destroy
Israel… and Israel demonstrates, again and again, that they are not even
remotely in Israel’s league.
When Israel was established, its economy struggled; the most famous
export was “Jaffa oranges”. Some decades later, Israel’s exports, from
computer technology to agriculture to water reclamation to medical
advances, are the envy of the world. Hi-tech companies all over the
world set up shop in Israel, to take advantage of Israel’s pool of
unparalleled talent and entrepreneurship. Israeli inventions and new
technologies are everywhere; if you wanted to boycott Israeli technology
completely, you’d need to live in a cave.
In other words, Israel’s positive influence on the world has grown
steadily, and it continues to grow.
And now we see Israel’s diplomatic influence growing. Once it seemed
that Israel had hardly a friend in the world; France sold Israel weapons
until 1967, and then refused to sell any more, even refusing to deliver
some that had already been paid for. Once it seemed that the entire Arab
world was united in its hatred of Israel. But two of Israel’s most
implacable foes, Egypt and Jordan, have signed and honored peace
treaties with Israel — and recently, the UAE has signed as well. More
importantly, other Arab countries have expressed their understanding
(and approval?) of this latest development, suggesting that more
treaties could soon follow — and these, by all appearances, would be
treaties based on economic self-interest, not politics. Increasingly,
the Arab world seems to understand that they have a lot to gain from
being a friend of Israel — much more than they ever gained as Israel’s
enemy.
How long will Israel survive as a nation-state? As of August 2020,
Israel has never been stronger, never been more confident of its place
in the world… and Israel shows every sign of continuing so, as far as
the eye can see.
The world is a better place because of Israel. Israel will survive, and
thrive, and continue to contribute to the world… and we can all be
grateful for that.
EDIT: Thanks to David Weiser for reminding me that the modern State of
Israel was not established by the UN. Rather, a UN vote provided
international recognition of a potential Jewish State… and left it to
fend for itself in the war that inevitably followed.
The UN vote meant that Israel had legitimacy in the eyes of the world,
if Israel could survive an invasion, in indefensible borders, by seven
national armies. Somehow Israel did.
Thanks also to Kenneth Gelnick for correcting my terminology.
Technicalities matter!
27.3K viewsView 308 upvotesView shares
--------------------
David Weiser
August 28, 2020
Good reply except for the part of Israel being established by a UN vote.
Let’s put the myth that the UN created Israel to rest. It was the Jews
who declared independence and fought for it.
Profile photo for Daniel Schwartz
Daniel Schwartz
August 28, 2020
Thanks! I’ve added a correction.
Nagi Obad
October 15, 2020
It’s was the britts who handed it to you in the first place if you
really want to call it for what it is.
Yoel Ben-Avraham
October 15, 2020
Actually it was the League of Nations who *simultaneously* created what
would become the countries of Lebanon,Syria,Iraq, Jordan and Saudia.
The so called Balfour Declaration was simple the British Government's
public endorsement of the movement that culumated with the League of
Nation's decision at San Remo.
Kenneth Gelnick
August 29, 2020
Mr. Schwartz, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that the modern State
of Israel was established in 1948 or that the State of Israel was
re-established in 1948. After all, it is the third (or is it the 4th)
Jewish state in the Land of Israel.
Profile photo for Daniel Schwartz
Daniel Schwartz
August 29, 2020
Fair enough! Thanks.
Timothy J Bradley
October 22
The Jews survived the Holocaust and pledged that “never again” would
that happen. They meant exactly that. There is no way on God’s earth
that they would refrain from using nuclear weapons if the existence of
the state of Israel was threatened- at least I would hope they wouldn’t
hesitate.
Daniel Schwartz
October 22
Israel has never admitted owning nuclear weapons, although this is
sometimes referred to as “the worst-kept secret in the Middle East”.
Israel’s response to the question, unchanged since the 1960s, is that
Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into a Middle
East conflict.
If Israel does have nuclear weapons — which I assume it does — then they
exist for precisely that purpose. If ever country X has the means to
wipe out Israel in one stroke, Israel would deter such a move, by making
sure that Country X would not survive such a move.
Bob Smith
September 23, 2020
Your initial statement was correct: “It was established thanks to a
near-miraculous UN vote.” Weiser is playing with semantics. Getting
unity on the Security Council was miraculous. The fact that Israelis had
to fight to defend their new state is simply a fact of history.
Timothy J Bradley
October 22
Not a miracle. The USSR boycotted the Security Council, unless I am
mistaken, in which case please correct me.
Daniel Schwartz
October 22
The USSR did not boycott the UN Security Council vote of Nov. 29 1947.
Crucially, it was because the USSR was there, voting for partition, that
numerous USSR client states also voted for partition.
Nobody expected the US and the USSR to vote on the same side in the UN.
It would only happen a handful of times in history. But it happened that
day, when it was utterly necessary to get a two-thirds vote in favor of
partition. That’s why I called the vote “near-miraculous” from Israel’s
point of view.
Thomas Mitchell
December 8
As numerous Israeli historians have pointed out the Israeli victory in
1948 was not miraculous or even near-miraculous, but rather the result
of much greater motivation and willingness to sacrifice on the part of
the Jews than on the part of their Arab opponents. The Palestinians
demonstrated in 1948 that they were not yet a nation but a collection of
villages each of which made its own decision to either flee or make an
arrangement with the local Zionist forces. After June 1948 in the
subsequent phases of the war the IDF forces actually outnumbered their
Arab opponents. The biggest danger that Israel faces isn’t from its Arab
neighbors but from the demographic threat posed by the non-Zionist
sectors (Arab, ultra-Orthodox) of the population. These sectors have
greater birthrates than do the secular Jews and immigration from the
diaspora is drying up.
SolomonW
Apr 19, 2021, 5:00:01 AM4/19/21
to
I would not believe in 1985 that within
a few years, the USSR would no longer exist?
Jim Wilkins
Apr 19, 2021, 1:01:23 PM4/19/21
to
"SolomonW" wrote in message
news:69s2ntyvtm6z.427dw5do5qnc$.dlg@40tude.net...
.............
The governments of France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain, Russia, Japan and
China have all fallen one or more times since the start of the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Republics
Usually but not always the people remain to start over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bar_Kohba_revolt
news:69s2ntyvtm6z.427dw5do5qnc$.dlg@40tude.net...
.............
How long does any country survive?
I would not believe in 1985 that within
a few years, the USSR would no longer exist?
----------------------
I would not believe in 1985 that within
a few years, the USSR would no longer exist?
The governments of France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain, Russia, Japan and
China have all fallen one or more times since the start of the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Republics
Usually but not always the people remain to start over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bar_Kohba_revolt
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