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China's economy in steepest decline for 50 years: 'Superpower status is reversing!'

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Nov 28, 2023, 6:42:30 PM11/28/23
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China's economy in steepest decline for 50 years: 'Superpower status is
reversing!'
Shanghai, Nanjing
China's share of the global economy is declining and the turn could
'reorder the world', according to an investor Getty
Georgina Cutler
By Georgina Cutler
Published: 23/11/2023 - 19:43

One expert suggests the country's decades-long run of growth has come to
an end
China's share of the global economy is declining and the turn could
"reorder the world", according to an investor.

Ruchir Sharma said the country's decades-long run of growth has come to
an end as its share of world GDP is set to shrink by 1.4 per cent over
two years.

In nominal dollar terms, which Sharma argues is the most accurate
measure of an economy's relative strength, China's share began
decreasing in 2022 following a spate of strict Covid measures.

The Rockefeller International chairman explained that China's share is
expected to fall further in 2023 - topping 17 per cent.

Mao Zedong
The drop puts China on track to decline by 1.4 per cent by 2025, a
reduction not seen since the 1960s and 1970s, when Mao Zedong presided
over a weak economyGetty
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The drop puts China on track to decline by 1.4 per cent by 2025, a
reduction not seen since the 1960s and 1970s, when Mao Zedong presided
over a weak economy.

It wasn't until the 1970s that the economy began to turn around,
following a new leadership.

A rapid increase was seen between 1990 and 2021, when the global economy
soared from less than 2 per cent to 18.4 per cent.

However, China will account for none of the growth of global GDP over
the past two years.

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"China's decline could reorder the world," Sharma told the Financial Times.

"Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the
expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or
less steady over the past two years.

"The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other
emerging nations."

Beijing has maintained a five per cent annual growth target and expects
to meet it this year, with the forecast supported by the International
Monetary Fund, which sees 5.4 per cent growth for 2023.

China economy on the brink as Beijing takes frantic action to avoid chaos
Sharma has rejected the use of real GDP growth as a metric as Chinese
authorities could tweak the numbers to fit their outlook and cover up
the possibility of a decline.

He added: "In a historic turn, China's rise as an economic superpower is
reversing. The biggest global story of the past half century may be over.

"But almost no matter what Xi does, his nation's share in the global
economy is likely to decline for the foreseeable future. It's a
post-China world now."

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