On 5/7/2012 7:56 AM, AlexMilman wrote:
> On May 7, 2:25 am, Weland<
gi...@poetic.com> wrote:
>> On 5/6/2012 6:11 PM, Curt Emanuel wrote:
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>>> On 5/6/2012 11:17 AM, AlexMilman wrote:
>>>> On May 6, 9:25 am, Curt Emanuel<
cemanue...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> On 5/5/2012 1:53 PM, AlexMilman wrote:
>>
>>>>>> On May 5, 10:33 am, Curt Emanuel<
cemanue...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>>>>> Vouille (507) - A couple of pretty important things were determined
>>>>>>> here. First that Clovis and the Franks would become the premier
>>>>>>> power in
>>>>>>> continental Europe. Second that Theoderic and Alaric would be
>>>>>>> unable to
>>>>>>> maintain what at the time looked like a budding Empire from the
>>>>>>> Italian
>>>>>>> peninsula into Iberia. In addition, at the time almost all of the
>>>>>>> other
>>>>>>> Western Kingdoms were Arian. Only the Franks were Orthodox. If the
>>>>>>> Franks and Clovis lose, I think it's likely that things would have
>>>>>>> been
>>>>>>> very different - no Merovingians, Arian rather than what we call
>>>>>>> Orthodox Christianity and possibly (this is less likely) a Gothic
>>>>>>> Empire.
>>
>>>>>>> Yarmouk (636) - This was probably the key battle of the Islamic
>>>>>>> Conquest
>>>>>>> against the Byzantines and gave Islam Syria, where they launched the
>>>>>>> captures of Jerusalem, Egypt, etc. I think it could be paired with the
>>>>>>> 718 Siege of Jerusalem since those two pretty much established the
>>>>>>> Byzantine-Islamic balance that lasted for several centuries.
>>
>>>>>> What of Guadalete (712)? Survival of the Visigothic Kingdom (assuming
>>>>>> that winning this battle would prevent further invasion) would mean a
>>>>>> lot of things including absence of the Reconquista, probably different
>>>>>> history of France (how absence of the Muslim invasion would change
>>>>>> it?).
>>
>>>>> I left the Arab Conquest out for two reasons. First is more general; the
>>>>> Visigoths were one profoundly screwed up kingdom. If there was ever an
>>>>> argument in favor of hereditary kingship, they're it - nothing like just
>>>>> about fighting a civil war every time a king died.
>>
>>>>> Second is related to the events of 711. Roderic was killed in a battle
>>>>> with what amounted to a scouting party. Musa had a much larger army (the
>>>>> real army) than Tariq and according to the sources - which are really
>>>>> weak for this - was pissed that his subordinate had gotten the glory. If
>>>>> Roderic had managed to defeat Tariq I have a hard time seeing how he'd
>>>>> have stood up to Musa.
>>
>>>>> If the Arabs wanted Spain, they were getting it. The Visigoths weren't
>>>>> long for this world if anyone really went after them. If Roderic had
>>>>> happened to win the first battle there was another waiting for him
>>>>> against a larger, more well equipped one so I don't think another
>>>>> outcome would have made much of a difference.
>>
>>>>> Of course another outcome would have meant the Visigoths weren't what
>>>>> they were and half or more of Roderic's army wouldn't have deserted him,
>>>>> Christian factions and Jews wouldn't have supprted the Arabs, Count
>>>>> Julian wouldn't have invited the Arabs in and helped them, etc. The
>>>>> Visigoths were just a mess.
>>
>>>> Following exactly the same line of arguing, Kosovo has to be
>>>> disqualified: the Balkans in general and Serbia specifically had been
>>>> a mess. Serbian victory would just mean a delay of inevitable conquest
>>>> (just as later victories under Janosh Huniady and Matias Corwin just
>>>> postponed Ottoman conquest of Hungary).
>>
>>>>>>> Hastings (1066) - I ain't talking about this one but I think it's
>>>>>>> pretty
>>>>>>> obvious.
>>
>>>>>> [Some critics claimed that events on the Island of Miracle were
>>>>>> totally unimportant by definition but I'm not one of them :-)]
>>
>>>>>>> Las Navas de Tolosa (1212) - The Reconquista had been going on for
>>>>>>> some
>>>>>>> time, slowly, but for the two decades prior to this battle the
>>>>>>> Arabs had
>>>>>>> been making rapid gains. This battle both turned the tide and really
>>>>>>> depleted Arab forces and strength. I think there's a strong chance
>>>>>>> that
>>>>>>> if the Arabs had won the Reconquista would have been stopped cold.
>>
>>>>>> I doubt it. The same Alphonso VIII had been totally defeated at
>>>>>> Alarcos, 17 years prior to Las Navas de Tolosa but ended up with
>>>>>> loosing few pieces of territory South of Toledo. Tide was clearly
>>>>>> changing.
>>
>>>>> I don't. In those 17 years things were pretty much at a stalemate.
>>
>>>> Which is exactly my point: the Moors could not exploit results of a
>>>> great victory. The tide was turning.
>>
>>> No - that's exactly MY point. To 1195 the Christians had the upper hand..
>>> After 1195 things were in mostly a stalemate (though the Arabs raided
>>> Castile pretty heavily and took the fortresses south of Toledo). The
>>> 10-year peace treaty the Christians agreed to was directly a result. So
>>> 1195 was turning point.
>>
>>> 1212 was the next turning point. Within a year the Christians, after
>>> making no significant gainss in 17 years had taken over Duenas,
>>> Alcantara, and were able to besiege Merida. Las Navas de Tolosa began
>>> the end of the Almohads.
>>
>>> One battle and the balance of power changed from roughly even to
>>> decisively Christian. All you need to look at is what happened the next
>>> 4 decades and look at the date when that all began to take place.
>>
>>>>> Christians raided Arab territories and maybe grabbed a fortress or two,
>>
>>>> IIRC, they were mostly holding a ground slightly North of Toledo.
>>
>>> The Arabs had the south road to Toledo
>>
>>>>> Arabs raided Christian territories and maybe grabbed a fortress or two.
>>
>>>> Not "maybe", they took, among other places, Calatrava. But they did
>>>> not have strength for re-re-conquest.
>>
>>> They didn't retake Toledo which may have been stupid. They were able to
>>> achieve a balance, which hadn't existed before.
>>
>>>>> The Christian victory (and the number of Arabs killed) tipped the
>>>>> balance in their favor. I think it would have tipped the balance in the
>>>>> opposite direction if the Arabs had won in similar fashion.
>>
>>>> They did at Alarcos and could not exploit it.
>>
>>>> Las Navas de Tolosa was one of the great 'token' battles: an eye-
>>>> catching event to identify a clear turning point (even if tendency was
>>>> already there).
>>
>>>>> I'm using the term "Arabs" loosely here. Obviously some were from
>>>>> families that had lived for centuries in Spain.
>>
>>>> Or they had been the Berbers. "Moors" is a safer term.
>>
>>>>>>> Kosovo (1389) - I actually had a hard time coming up with a fifth. For
>>>>>>> pretty much every one I came up with - Manzikert, Bouvines, Orleans
>>>>>>> - I
>>>>>>> think that even if things had gone the other way, in the long run
>>>>>>> events
>>>>>>> would have progressed similarly. Kosovo's in the same category. The
>>>>>>> Ottomans invaded Serbia with a tremendous force. Serbia raised pretty
>>>>>>> much everyone to fight. Technically the Ottomans won but it was pretty
>>>>>>> much a draw, with tremendous casualties on both sides. Problem is, the
>>>>>>> Ottomans had more men in Anatolia, Serbia didn't and over the next
>>>>>>> couple of decades was taken over. I think it's possible that if Serbia
>>>>>>> had won decisively the Turkish advance would have stopped there
>>
>>>>>> Highly questionable. IIRC, general situation in Serbia was a mess
>>>>>> (including absence of unified kingdom) and the Ottoman conquest was
>>>>>> just a matter of time.
>>
>>>>>>> and the
>>>>>>> West may have been able to save Constantinople.
>>
>>>>>> Even total disaster (for teh Ottomans) at Ankara did not save it.
>>
>>>>>>> More likely is that
>>>>>>> things would have gone on the same general way though things such
>>>>>>> as the
>>>>>>> fall of Constantinople might have been delayed a few decades.
>>
>>>>>> Benevento (1266), if lost by Charles of Anjou, there would be no
>>>>>> Angevian kingdom in the Southern Italy (and perhaps Hohenstaufen would
>>>>>> survive as a dynasty), no Spanish (Aragon) involvement and,
>>>>>> eventually, no pretext for starting Italian Wars few centuries later
>>>>>> (with all following results).
>>
>>>>> Won't argue with you on this one (won't argue much with anyone for
>>>>> picking something over Kosovo).
>>
>>>> Another overlooked battle was Worskla (1399). If Witold won, history
>>>> of the Eastern Europe could be seriously different. His loss for all
>>>> practical purposes made Lithuania dependent on Poland and seriously
>>>> limited his penetration into the Russian territories, leaving Great
>>>> Princedom of Moscow the leading _Russian_ state (even if he ended up
>>>> as a 'protector').
>>
>>>> Battle of the Marchfeld (1278) - established (until after WWI)
>>>> Hapsburg rule over Austria.
>>
>>>> Battle of Aljubarrota (1385) - Portugal gained independence from
>>>> Castile.
>>
>>>> Staying (not a real battle) on Ugra River (1476) - a token event that
>>>> established complete independence of Moscow from the Golden Horde (and
>>>> turn of the tide in the terms of who was conquering whom in the
>>>> future).
>>
>>>> Probably one of the Swiss victories over Hapsburgs - established
>>>> independence of the Swiss cantons and one can say, started "infantry
>>>> revolution" (something I don't really believe in :-)).
>>
>> An overlooked one I think is Battle of Eddington. Without an England,
>> or a pagan England, the Middle Ages and many of those battles would look
>> a lot different. I'm not saying it belongs in the top 5, but perhaps a
>> top 10.
> Do you think that if Alfred lost to the Danes England would remain
> heathen for the next few centuries? After all, Danes accepted
> Christianity within 50 - 60 years after this event.
>
>
>
In part because of English and Irish pressure. Not only those, but in
part. And the fact that their counterparts in England were pagan
(Alfred forced Christianity)...so paganism may well have hung on longer
if there were a pagan Norse kingdom in what is now England.