epidemics and history
Allan Griffith
of epidemics on history, fascinating. But it came it in 1976, so I
imagine it's a bit dated now. Are there are any good recent books
covering similar ground?
I was especially intrigued by his contention that Justinian's policy of
reconquest of the western parts of the Roman Empire failed largely as a
result of plague (rather than because it was simply too ambitious). Is
this a theory that would be widely accepted by historians?
Al
Paul J Gans
The book is still cited, though specialists in each area he
touches upon can name many other reasons to explain the
result.
That doesn't make McNeill wrong.
---- Paul J. Gans
centno...@hotmail.com
>I found William H. McNeill's book _Plagues and Peoples_, on the effects
>of epidemics on history, fascinating. But it came it in 1976, so I
>imagine it's a bit dated now. Are there are any good recent books
>covering similar ground?
>
Indeed there are. "Google Groups" this group for "black death" and
search by date to come up with some choice titles. Threads with my
name, Simon Pugh's and Paul Gans' should give you threads with books
and articles mentioned.
EDEB.
centno...@hotmail.com
Plus, the McNeill thesis is an interesting read from the point of view
of its academic longevity. As I read it, its basic argument is that
mankind's history often rides on the back of what disease ridden fleas
(etc) are doing, which is an unusual and novel idea, and a hard one to
get your head round... In some ways I think that it offers the biggest
challenge to economic and social historians, though the people who
explain "developments" in other areas of life
(political/scientific/religious/art historians etc) also have to
contend with the thesis, if they are interested in the processes of
historical change. Often disease vectors are not admitted to be part
of the historical equation. My own suspicion is that perhaps McNeill
overstated his case. It is a tricky one, though, isn't it! Forces of
mortality, birth, incapacity, economics and so on are hard enough to
interpret - McNeill didn't half throw a causal handgrenade into the
works with his ideas at any rate, don't you think?
EDEB.
Martin Reboul
Allan Griffith wrote...
There was quite a hefty discussion here about the Black Death recently,
particularly concerning its odd reappearance and rapid spread in the 14th
and 15th centuries. I think (backup here please... or not?) it was generally
agreed that the ability of the bubonic plague bacillus to remain infectious
within dormant fleas (either laying 'in wait' in empty houses, or
transported in textiles, clothing and carpets) explained away most if not
all the many mysterious outbreaks and resurgences of the plague at that
time, as well as the rapid spread of it.
In fact, (assuming I am right about this), that was it one of the best
demonstrations I've seen so far of how newsgroup discussions (yes, even
here!) can "sort things out" and lay long unresolved problems to rest at
last, as the result of the combined 'input' of an unusual mixture of people,
with extremely diverse talents and interests - who would probably never,
ever have met otherwise?
No drum banging or back-slapping yet however - there is much work to do, as
we haven't yet sorted out crossbows at Hastings, horse collars in ancient
times or the little Princes in the.... (cont.P98)
Cheers
Martin
Simon Pugh
centno...@hotmail.com writes
Then there is that great classic, Rats. Lice and History by Zinser
(1935). Also is Biology of Plagues: Evidence from Historical Populations
by Scott and Duncan. Cambridge University Press 2001. This book is
rather technical and I think quite misleading/misguided.
--
Simon Pugh
Remove X for email
Allan Griffith
centno...@hotmail.com says...
> Plus, the McNeill thesis is an interesting read from the point of view
> of its academic longevity. As I read it, its basic argument is that
> mankind's history often rides on the back of what disease ridden fleas
> (etc) are doing, which is an unusual and novel idea, and a hard one to
> get your head round... In some ways I think that it offers the biggest
> challenge to economic and social historians, though the people who
> explain "developments" in other areas of life
> (political/scientific/religious/art historians etc) also have to
> contend with the thesis, if they are interested in the processes of
> historical change. Often disease vectors are not admitted to be part
> of the historical equation. My own suspicion is that perhaps McNeill
> overstated his case. It is a tricky one, though, isn't it! Forces of
> mortality, birth, incapacity, economics and so on are hard enough to
> interpret - McNeill didn't half throw a causal handgrenade into the
> works with his ideas at any rate, don't you think?
He certainly did. Are there many historians investigating this field? I
imagine it would be tricky to find people with the right mix of
qualifications, to make sense of the data.
Al
Paul J Gans
Not only is that true, but there is very little data and what
there is frequently is confused.
---- Paul J. Gans
Hubbard C. Goodrich
I found especially interesting McNeill's claim that the locus of the
Bubonic plague in Burma could not have left the area until
transportation was available in the 13th c so that all other prior
claims of B plague (Biblical, Chinese, Justinian etc) were false and
something else; any disease new to population brought by trade or
armies could have been equally disastrous). Though not specifically
concerned with the B or P plagues, the following 1990s titles might be
of help:
Diamond, Jared: Guns, Germs, and Steel, 1997.
Cartwright, Frederick, F: Disease and History, 1991.
Ewald, Paul W.: Evolution of Infectious Disease, 1996.
Karlen, Arno: Man and Microbes, 1996.
Hubbard C. Goodrich
Simon Pugh
Goodrich <hcgoo...@hotmail.com> writes
<snip>
>
> I found especially interesting McNeill's claim that the locus of the
>Bubonic plague in Burma could not have left the area until
>transportation was available in the 13th c so that all other prior
>claims of B plague (Biblical, Chinese, Justinian etc) were false and
>something else; any disease new to population brought by trade or
>armies could have been equally disastrous). Though not specifically
>concerned with the B or P plagues, the following 1990s titles might be
>of help:
>Diamond, Jared: Guns, Germs, and Steel, 1997.
>Cartwright, Frederick, F: Disease and History, 1991.
>Ewald, Paul W.: Evolution of Infectious Disease, 1996.
>Karlen, Arno: Man and Microbes, 1996.
>Hubbard C. Goodrich
I haven't read the McNeill book, what was the evidence that Bubonic
Plague originated in Burma?
BTW I did not warm to "Guns Germs and Steel".
Paul J Gans
He's almost surely wrong about that. One thing that the Mongols
did for civilization is that the "pacification" of the Silk Road
(which was many different roads) it became possible for the plague
to move west, as it had in Roman times.
The plague route of 1347 is fairly well known.
>Though not specifically
>concerned with the B or P plagues, the following 1990s titles might be
>of help:
>Diamond, Jared: Guns, Germs, and Steel, 1997.
>Cartwright, Frederick, F: Disease and History, 1991.
>Ewald, Paul W.: Evolution of Infectious Disease, 1996.
>Karlen, Arno: Man and Microbes, 1996.
>Hubbard C. Goodrich
---- Paul J. Gans
Hubbard C. Goodrich
Simon:
PP 170-172 of McNeill's book. It is largely conjectural based on
the nature of the grey rat/flea life cycle, transportation, and
geography. "We must assume that prior to the Mongol conquests the
plague was endemic in one or more natural foci among communities of
burrowing rodents.... One such natural focus was probably located in
the borderland between India, China, and Burma in the Himalayan
foothills; another probabably existed in central Africa in the region
of the Great Lakes. The Eurasian steppelands ... were almost
certainly not yet a focus of plague.
"Transfer to the broad northern grasslands of Eurasia in the 2nd
half of the 13th c [via] Mongol horsemen [who] penetrated Yunnan and
Burma (1252-53) and thereby entered the regions where wild rodents
today play host to the plague bacillus on a chronic basis." The
superior speed of horses made it possible for the bacillus to spread
where before the host would die before travelling too far. This
argument is preceded by why 'Burma' and followed by why not previously
outside that area.
This is, you understand, conjecture. I just thought it interesting
and different from all others I have read on the subject. The word
'plague' is so often used in translation can refer to many diseases
(think of the impact of small pox or even measles on the American
Indian, for example). McNeill is also a more entertaining read than
the other sources suggested.
Diamond's book has an interesting thesis if you ignore all his
remarks concerning New Guinea. The idea of east-west transfer of food
items and technology versus a north-south path is so obvious but not
one I had considered to explain at least in part why certain peoples
progressed and others did not. This was my stupidity. I had the
pieces but never illuminated the message.
Simon Pugh
Goodrich <hcgoo...@hotmail.com> writes
<snip>
OK, as I understand you, conjecture and sweeping generalisation. :)
As you say, plague is not a specific term and often hard to attach a
specific aetiology to descriptions of ancient plagues.
> Diamond's book has an interesting thesis if you ignore all his
>remarks concerning New Guinea. The idea of east-west transfer of food
>items and technology versus a north-south path is so obvious but not
>one I had considered to explain at least in part why certain peoples
>progressed and others did not. This was my stupidity. I had the
>pieces but never illuminated the message.
Funnily enough the idea that transfer of crops is much easier east-west
than north-south was something I picked out too. Obvious, but not
something that had occurred to me.
There are other interesting things in the book too, but his discussion
of infectious diseases was quite limited..
Michael Kuettner
"Simon Pugh" <Ne...@mrzsp.demonX.co.uk> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:k+Yz5NFJ...@mrzsp.demon.co.uk...
<snip>
> There are other interesting things in the book too, but his discussion
> of infectious diseases was quite limited..
OK, now we have SARS.
Would that be a decent enough plague for med. times ?
The mortality rate would have been higher back then; how about
spread ? SARS takes some time to overcome its host; would he
have survived on a horse long enough ?
We've had discusions about the plagues(s) before; now we've
got a good analogy; would SARS have qualified as plague in
the med. times (esp. if you regard the mutations that _will_ occur) ?
Cheers,
Michael Kuettner
Paul J Gans
>> In message <b18532eb.03041...@posting.google.com>, Hubbard C.
>> Goodrich <hcgoo...@hotmail.com> writes
>> <snip>
>> >
[...]
> Diamond's book has an interesting thesis if you ignore all his
>remarks concerning New Guinea. The idea of east-west transfer of food
>items and technology versus a north-south path is so obvious but not
>one I had considered to explain at least in part why certain peoples
>progressed and others did not. This was my stupidity. I had the
>pieces but never illuminated the message.
Why would you want to ignore what he says about New Guinea?
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
It was based, IIRC, on the idea that there needed to be
an animal vector present to serve as a reservoir of
disease.
In other words, very few diseases propagate from person
to person and can maintain themselves that way perpetually.
Most have a home with an animal that is more or less immune.
Influenza is such a disease, harboring in pigs and fowl.
Diamond's thesis combines this with the fact that there
were few "intimate" animals domesticated in the New World.
An intimate animal being one you live with (not in the same
room, but close enough to so that fleas, etc., can be
transferred.
So various diseases became endemic in Eurasia while few if
any did in the New World.
The result when the more or less endemic disease resistant
Old Europeans came to the New World were catastrophic.
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
We don't know yet. We have little data from China and
in the west people with it have been fairly quickly
quarantined.
In the Middle Ages they'd have walked about infecting
everyone.
This may yet happen in countries with poorer health facilities
than the west.
So we shall see.
But one thing SARS does is point out what I've said about
bioweapons. They are more of a threat to those who would
use them than to the West.
------ Paul J. Gans
Frank Martin
to the mosquito digestive tract as the malaria parasite did.
Such a resistance would have let it spread much faster.
Unless this virus is a recent mutant, of course.
"Paul J Gans" <ga...@panix.com> wrote in message
news:b7q9lq$kbt$1...@reader1.panix.com...
Simon Pugh
<ga...@panix.com> writes
I am not sure that medieval people would have thought of SARS as a
plague. The mortality is thought to be 3-4% and they faced other
diseases with a far higher mortality.
It looks as though SARS is caused by a new coronavirus that is not
closely related to either human or animal coronavirus. Coronaviruses
cause colds in humans, and respiratory and enteric infections in
animals. The virus presumably came from animals in southern China but
the source is not known.
Will it turn out to be a modern plague, who knows? The epidemiology
isn't worked out but it seems to spread in a similar way to colds, but
now it looks as though enteric spread may also occur.
An infection that spreads like a cold but with a 4% mortality certainly
has the potential to cause major problems.
Simon Pugh
<ga...@panix.com> writes
The idea is that an infection like measles requires a population of
about 500,000 to sustain its self. It is an exclusively human infection
which is very infectious and results in life long immunity. In a small
population, the susceptible population is used up and the infection dies
out. If the population is large enough new births provide enough new
susceptibles to keep the infection going.
So measles derived from an animal infection and only evolved into an
exclusively human pathogen when mankind lived in large enough groups to
sustain it.
Something like chicken pox is different because it becomes latent and
reactivates years later as shingles, by which time there would be new
susceptibles even in a small population.
>
>Influenza is such a disease, harboring in pigs and fowl.
Influenza can sustain itself in large modern populations, it does this
by constantly changing. The animal side is important because it provides
a source of major changes in influenza antigens which results in
particularly severe epidemics, or pandemics.
>
>Diamond's thesis combines this with the fact that there
>were few "intimate" animals domesticated in the New World.
I am not sure if he really explains why large South American populations
did not have their own killer bugs. Perhaps it was that the large
populations were relatively new. I am not sure that I totally believe
the idea that they did not come into close contact with animals.
>
>An intimate animal being one you live with (not in the same
>room, but close enough to so that fleas, etc., can be
>transferred.
>
>So various diseases became endemic in Eurasia while few if
>any did in the New World.
>
>The result when the more or less endemic disease resistant
>Old Europeans came to the New World were catastrophic.
>
> ---- Paul J. Gans
--
Drew Nicholson
Thank ghods it was...
"Frank Martin" <fr...@general.com.au> wrote in message
news:b7qsb2$11t1$3...@otis.netspace.net.au...
Paul J Gans
>It's curious why the AIDS virus didn't develop a resistance
>to the mosquito digestive tract as the malaria parasite did.
>Such a resistance would have let it spread much faster.
>Unless this virus is a recent mutant, of course.
There's no volition in evolution.
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
I agree, though we don't really know the death rate in China.
>It looks as though SARS is caused by a new coronavirus that is not
>closely related to either human or animal coronavirus. Coronaviruses
>cause colds in humans, and respiratory and enteric infections in
>animals. The virus presumably came from animals in southern China but
>the source is not known.
>Will it turn out to be a modern plague, who knows? The epidemiology
>isn't worked out but it seems to spread in a similar way to colds, but
>now it looks as though enteric spread may also occur.
>An infection that spreads like a cold but with a 4% mortality certainly
>has the potential to cause major problems.
Four percent is really awful. Not in the Black Death category
of course, but still. It means one in 25. I'm currently
teaching a class with about 125 students in it. It would
mean that about five of them will be dead by next year.
It would make an impact.
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
>In message <b7q9lq$kbt$1...@reader1.panix.com>, Paul J Gans
><ga...@panix.com> writes
[...]
>>It was based, IIRC, on the idea that there needed to be
>>an animal vector present to serve as a reservoir of
>>disease.
>>
>>In other words, very few diseases propagate from person
>>to person and can maintain themselves that way perpetually.
>>Most have a home with an animal that is more or less immune.
>The idea is that an infection like measles requires a population of
>about 500,000 to sustain its self. It is an exclusively human infection
>which is very infectious and results in life long immunity. In a small
>population, the susceptible population is used up and the infection dies
>out. If the population is large enough new births provide enough new
>susceptibles to keep the infection going.
Yes.
>So measles derived from an animal infection and only evolved into an
>exclusively human pathogen when mankind lived in large enough groups to
>sustain it.
>Something like chicken pox is different because it becomes latent and
>reactivates years later as shingles, by which time there would be new
>susceptibles even in a small population.
>>
>>Influenza is such a disease, harboring in pigs and fowl.
>Influenza can sustain itself in large modern populations, it does this
>by constantly changing. The animal side is important because it provides
>a source of major changes in influenza antigens which results in
>particularly severe epidemics, or pandemics.
I agree, even though I don't think that human populations
are a good reservoir. There are times of the year when there
is essentially no influenza at all in human populations in
many areas.
>>
>>Diamond's thesis combines this with the fact that there
>>were few "intimate" animals domesticated in the New World.
>I am not sure if he really explains why large South American populations
>did not have their own killer bugs. Perhaps it was that the large
>populations were relatively new. I am not sure that I totally believe
>the idea that they did not come into close contact with animals.
Smaller populations (also the case early on in Eurasia) and
essentially no domesticated animals. Diamond seems to think
(again, IIRC) that those were needed in almost all cases.
One thing we've left out is that over time humans mutate
to accomodate these endemic diseases. It is inevitable
since those with chance mutations that makes them even
slightly more resistant have an enhanced chance of surviving
the next episode.
So many of the endemic Eurasian diseases were not scourges
at home. Among new non-immune peoples they became scourges.
While folks still argue about the death rate in the New World,
all agree it was much larger than that of the Black Death.
Paul J Gans
>Perhaps when it was built, that ability was deliberately left out?
>Thank ghods it was...
Neither the AIDS virus nor the SARS virus were "built". At
least that what I've been told by Virologists Who Know.
There are only a few techniques for tampering with DNA and
they all leave tell-tale signs in the extra DNA they include
in order to work.
Now that the genome of SARS is known, it can be seen that no
such extra DNA can be seen.
Same for AIDS.
---- Paul J. Gans
Simon Pugh
<ga...@panix.com> writes
<snip>
>>I am not sure if he really explains why large South American populations
>>did not have their own killer bugs. Perhaps it was that the large
>>populations were relatively new. I am not sure that I totally believe
>>the idea that they did not come into close contact with animals.
>
>Smaller populations (also the case early on in Eurasia) and
>essentially no domesticated animals. Diamond seems to think
>(again, IIRC) that those were needed in almost all cases.
I think Diamond said the Aztec empire was several million, but I don't
know if it was widely spread out or packed close together. On the face
of it though that should have been large enough to sustain a disease of
measles type.
As for domestic animals, are we allowed to include rats and mice etc?
So why didn't they develop there own killer bugs. I still think that
time may have been important, but I don't know how old the Aztec empire
was.
After all parts of Africa were pretty much uninhabitable for Europeans
because of disease.
>
>One thing we've left out is that over time humans mutate
>to accomodate these endemic diseases. It is inevitable
>since those with chance mutations that makes them even
>slightly more resistant have an enhanced chance of surviving
>the next episode.
Yes, it is like an arms race, bugs mutate, people respond, bugs mutate
... and so on.
>
>So many of the endemic Eurasian diseases were not scourges
>at home. Among new non-immune peoples they became scourges.
>While folks still argue about the death rate in the New World,
>all agree it was much larger than that of the Black Death.
>
Indeed.
>
>>>An intimate animal being one you live with (not in the same
>>>room, but close enough to so that fleas, etc., can be
>>>transferred.
>>>
>>>So various diseases became endemic in Eurasia while few if
>>>any did in the New World.
>>>
>>>The result when the more or less endemic disease resistant
>>>Old Europeans came to the New World were catastrophic.
>
> ---- Paul J. Gans
--
Simon Pugh
<ga...@panix.com> writes
Oh dear, not another conspiracy theory, viruses are quite capable of
causing us problems on their own. :)
Matthew Harley
>
> Four percent is really awful. Not in the Black Death category
> of course, but still. It means one in 25. I'm currently
> teaching a class with about 125 students in it. It would
> mean that about five of them will be dead by next year.
But that refers to the death rate of those actually infected
by the virus, and these are a very small percentage of the
total population.
That 4% figure applies to your students, only if ALL of them
have already caught SARS, which is highly unlikely, unless
you've been in Guandong Province and came home spreading it
to all of your lecture theatre, in the last few days!
I heard somewhere that the death rate from the "Spanish Flu"
after WWI, was less that 4%, but it killed 20 million!
That's scary, but it requires one to be infected first,
before the ca. 4% probability of death applies. If you have
not been infected, the probability of infection and death is
very, very, very small.
As the French say, philosophically: "Il ne faut pas
exagérer, quand même!
Even allowing for serious Chinese under-reporting, maybe
only something like 200 people have died, so far,
world-wide.
What are the chances that one of your students will be
killed in a car crash in the next year?
Matt Harley
Simon Pugh
The sequence for SARS virus is now on the CDC web site at:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/SARS/sequence.htm
It's pretty amazing how fast things have moved, and WHO have just
announced that the SARS virus is confirmed as a new Coronavirus (RNA
BTW).
Paul J Gans
>In message <b7s3np$6ip$9...@reader1.panix.com>, Paul J Gans
><ga...@panix.com> writes
>As for domestic animals, are we allowed to include rats and mice etc?
I'd guess so. Perhaps they had those diseases.
>So why didn't they develop there own killer bugs. I still think that
>time may have been important, but I don't know how old the Aztec empire
>was.
>After all parts of Africa were pretty much uninhabitable for Europeans
>because of disease.
I think they did not develop their own because diseases don't
come from nowhere. They are most often animal diseases that
jump the barrier. Diamond's point is domesticated animals
were lacking.
I don't think he discussed human-only diseases. In any event
there are very few of those. One or two perhaps.
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
In the US everything can be part of a conspiracy. You have,
I'm sure, noted that we Red Diaper babies are responsible
for all the woes in the world.
If we were to join forces with the Jewish Conspiracy it would
be a wonder if folks like Hines manged to survive.
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
I think the problem is that the disease is *very* virulent.
It is very very easy to catch just by being in the same
elevator as an infected person. The thinking is that we
are *all* likely to get it before it runs its course.
In that case a 4% mortality rate means about 10 million
deaths in the US.
That's why public health officials are scared.
*If* they can keep the lid on it by isolating every
person who comes down with the disease, we have a chance.
---- Paul J. Gans
Simon Pugh
You are right, I don't think he does discuss exclusively human
infections although smallpox, which killed a lot of Aztecs, was.
I am still not really convinced by this idea that having domesticated
animals is a prerequisite for acquiring infections from animals.
Domestic rodents live in close proximity with humans and even hunter
gatherers must have very close contact with the animals they kill and
eat.
Then there are insect transmitted infections where the insects fly from
animal to man so the animals don't have to be in close proximity with
the humans.
Gordon Johnson
wrote:
>>An infection that spreads like a cold but with a 4% mortality certainly
>>has the potential to cause major problems.
>
>Four percent is really awful. Not in the Black Death category
>of course, but still. It means one in 25. I'm currently
>teaching a class with about 125 students in it. It would
>mean that about five of them will be dead by next year.
>
>It would make an impact.
>
> ---- Paul J. Gans
** According to the reports, most of the dead are elderly, so a class
may be fairly safe - as far as death is concerned.
Gordon.
Gordon Johnson's website:
<www.kinhelp.co.uk>
with genealogical help plus pre-1700 genealogical
indexes, as well as professional research option.
Gordon Johnson
<Ne...@mrzsp.demonX.co.uk> wrote:
>I think Diamond said the Aztec empire was several million, but I don't
>know if it was widely spread out or packed close together. On the face
>of it though that should have been large enough to sustain a disease of
>measles type.
** A recent TV programme about the Amazon basin investigated old
reports from early Spanish exporers that there were large villages all
the way up the river, nowadays all empty of humans, except for recent
settlers.
The investigators found that soil samples indicated long-term
cultivation, and other clear areas indicated from the air that there
had been irrigation channels, etc.
Conclusion was that the population had been wiped out by diseases
broiught by these same explorers.
<snip>
>>So many of the endemic Eurasian diseases were not scourges
>>at home. Among new non-immune peoples they became scourges.
>>While folks still argue about the death rate in the New World,
>>all agree it was much larger than that of the Black Death.
Gordon Johnson's website:
Tim Boothby
<snip>
> In the US everything can be part of a conspiracy. You have,
> I'm sure, noted that we Red Diaper babies are responsible
> for all the woes in the world.
I finally heard Michael Savage on the radio the other day, and his rants on
the red diaper doper babies and realize that I am nowhere as rabidly right
wing as I am accused. Gee I have one bad day and advocate a return to
public hangings and suddenly I'm Ghengis Khan. It did, however, make my
point that there is no deterrence to a guy being laid on a table, stuck
witha 'sterile' needle and dripped off into eternity. Seeing somebody make
the sudden stop at the end of a rope... now that would be a deterrance. In
truth I was mostly kidding on that... mostly.
Personally I like the thought of institutionalizing anyone that commits
murder and not releasing them until they are verified as rehabilitated by at
least three staff doctors, who could be sued for malpractice if he was
wrong. But it probably shouldn't happen, doctors shouldn't be part of the
criminal justice system as it would be along the same lines as
institutionalizing political prisoners.
> If we were to join forces with the Jewish Conspiracy it would
> be a wonder if folks like Hines manged to survive.
I once had a guy walk up to me and start looking my uniform over carefully,
when I asked him what he was doing he said that he'd read on the internet
that there were tiny Stars of David incorporated into the camouflage pattern
to seal us to the 'Zionist Occupation Government'. I laughed until he tried
to raise my shirt and inspect the region around my more personal anatomy, he
didn't seem to approve of me smacking his hands, but he did desist and walk
away, probably convinced that I was wearing a secret decoder belt buckle.
Later...
Tim
Paul J Gans
Sure. But the chances of an animal disease affecting humans
under those conditions are small.
An animal disease has to evolve to be able to attack humans.
If the contact is very occasional there is little chance.
After all, what needs to happen is that the mosquito has to
bite a properly infected animal, then a susceptible human.
The human has to get sick and a mosquito has then to bite
him and then another animal.
Without close contact this becomes uncommon.
>Then there are insect transmitted infections where the insects fly from
>animal to man so the animals don't have to be in close proximity with
>the humans.
Yes, but for this to work it is best if the animals and the
humans have lived in close proximity. Thus cow-human diseases,
human-some bird diseases, pig-human diseases, etc.
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
>On Sat, 19 Apr 2003 18:07:53 +0000 (UTC), Paul J Gans <ga...@panix.com>
>wrote:
>>>An infection that spreads like a cold but with a 4% mortality certainly
>>>has the potential to cause major problems.
>>
>>Four percent is really awful. Not in the Black Death category
>>of course, but still. It means one in 25. I'm currently
>>teaching a class with about 125 students in it. It would
>>mean that about five of them will be dead by next year.
>>
>>It would make an impact.
>>
>> ---- Paul J. Gans
>** According to the reports, most of the dead are elderly, so a class
>may be fairly safe - as far as death is concerned.
>Gordon.
There seems at the moment to be two types of infections. The
main one, as you say, seems not to infect children. The other
does seem to infect them.
Right now there are too few cases outside of Asia for anyone to
really know.
---- Paul J. Gans
Brian M. Scott
<boot...@dodgingspamagain.net> wrote:
[...]
>I finally heard Michael Savage on the radio the other day, and his rants on
>the red diaper doper babies and realize that I am nowhere as rabidly right
>wing as I am accused. Gee I have one bad day and advocate a return to
>public hangings and suddenly I'm Ghengis Khan. It did, however, make my
>point that there is no deterrence to a guy being laid on a table, stuck
>witha 'sterile' needle and dripped off into eternity. Seeing somebody make
>the sudden stop at the end of a rope... now that would be a deterrance. In
>truth I was mostly kidding on that... mostly.
Good, because either it's nonsense -- I know of no reason to
think that there is any difference in deterrent effect between
lethal injection and humanely managed hanging -- or you are
implicitly suggesting that since the prospect of a painful death
may be a more effective deterrent than the prospect of a painless
one, we should revert to drawing and quartering and the like.
[...]
Paul J Gans
>"Paul J Gans" <ga...@panix.com> wrote in message
>news:b7shee$avm$3...@reader1.panix.com...
><snip>
>> In the US everything can be part of a conspiracy. You have,
>> I'm sure, noted that we Red Diaper babies are responsible
>> for all the woes in the world.
>I finally heard Michael Savage on the radio the other day, and his rants on
>the red diaper doper babies and realize that I am nowhere as rabidly right
>wing as I am accused. Gee I have one bad day and advocate a return to
>public hangings and suddenly I'm Ghengis Khan. It did, however, make my
>point that there is no deterrence to a guy being laid on a table, stuck
>witha 'sterile' needle and dripped off into eternity. Seeing somebody make
>the sudden stop at the end of a rope... now that would be a deterrance. In
>truth I was mostly kidding on that... mostly.
>Personally I like the thought of institutionalizing anyone that commits
>murder and not releasing them until they are verified as rehabilitated by at
>least three staff doctors, who could be sued for malpractice if he was
>wrong. But it probably shouldn't happen, doctors shouldn't be part of the
>criminal justice system as it would be along the same lines as
>institutionalizing political prisoners.
I'm for the same thing. I'm rather tired of the psycho docs
(and I have one in the family -- a sane one) who certify loons
as fit to be out on the street. And then walk away when they
are shown to be wrong. A surgeon doesn't have that ability.
He screws up, he gets sued.
>> If we were to join forces with the Jewish Conspiracy it would
>> be a wonder if folks like Hines manged to survive.
>I once had a guy walk up to me and start looking my uniform over carefully,
>when I asked him what he was doing he said that he'd read on the internet
>that there were tiny Stars of David incorporated into the camouflage pattern
>to seal us to the 'Zionist Occupation Government'. I laughed until he tried
>to raise my shirt and inspect the region around my more personal anatomy, he
>didn't seem to approve of me smacking his hands, but he did desist and walk
>away, probably convinced that I was wearing a secret decoder belt buckle.
There are those who will think that you are making that up.
I know that you are not. I've had indirect contact with some
of those too.
----- Paul J. Gans
>Later...
> Tim
Tim Boothby
> Tim Boothby <boot...@dodgingspamagain.net> wrote:
> >"Paul J Gans" <ga...@panix.com> wrote in message
> >news:b7shee$avm$3...@reader1.panix.com...
>
> ><snip>
>
> >murder and not releasing them until they are verified as rehabilitated by
at
> >least three staff doctors, who could be sued for malpractice if he was
> >wrong. But it probably shouldn't happen, doctors shouldn't be part of
the
> >criminal justice system as it would be along the same lines as
> >institutionalizing political prisoners.
>
> I'm for the same thing. I'm rather tired of the psycho docs
> (and I have one in the family -- a sane one) who certify loons
> as fit to be out on the street. And then walk away when they
> are shown to be wrong. A surgeon doesn't have that ability.
> He screws up, he gets sued.
I really like that thought, if I build jet engines for a living and if I
screw up people die and I get court martialed and I get to have a federal
conviction on my record, lose my stripes and career, and in all liklihood I
get a cellmate that hates NCOs who carves his initials in my back with a
dull toothbrush. A parole board guy succumbs to a fit of compassion because
his fat free decaf latte was particularly frothy that morning and lets
Charlie Manson's even more disturbed cellmate out and he slaughters a small
town in Oregon and he's home for dinner with an "Oh, isn't that a shame."
> >> If we were to join forces with the Jewish Conspiracy it would
> >> be a wonder if folks like Hines manged to survive.
>
> >I once had a guy walk up to me and start looking my uniform over
carefully,
> >when I asked him what he was doing he said that he'd read on the internet
> >that there were tiny Stars of David incorporated into the camouflage
pattern
> >to seal us to the 'Zionist Occupation Government'. I laughed until he
tried
> >to raise my shirt and inspect the region around my more personal anatomy,
he
> >didn't seem to approve of me smacking his hands, but he did desist and
walk
> >away, probably convinced that I was wearing a secret decoder belt buckle.
>
> There are those who will think that you are making that up.
> I know that you are not. I've had indirect contact with some
> of those too.
People never cease to amaze me, I had a Canadian at the Prince George
Airshow in '95 or '96 tell me that if I could sneak that 'Roswell thing' out
and land it north of the border he could cut me in on some sweet deals. A
guy in Oklahoma saw that the KC-135 could fly the 'Vomit Comet' profile that
gives periods of weightlessness and tried to convince me and my pilot that
if we took him and some of his friends up on a flight he'd cut us in on the
proceeds of a Zero-G porno flick.
But there are some nice compensations as well, I had to take one of my
troops to Wal-Mart because the base pharmacy was out of the medicine she
needed for a case of food poisoning and two different people went out of
their way when they saw our uniforms to thank us for our service. It takes
all types to make the world go around and they are all fun in one way or
another.
Later...
Tim
Simon Pugh
Of course West Nile will be particularly close to your heart.
The infection is maintained in wild birds and transmitted to humans by
mosquitos. No domestic animals involved. :)
Then there is yellow fever which is transmitted by mosquitos and
maintained in wild monkeys but given the right conditions, it will
happily infect and transmit between humans.
>
>Without close contact this becomes uncommon.
>
>>Then there are insect transmitted infections where the insects fly from
>>animal to man so the animals don't have to be in close proximity with
>>the humans.
>
>Yes, but for this to work it is best if the animals and the
>humans have lived in close proximity. Thus cow-human diseases,
>human-some bird diseases, pig-human diseases, etc.
>
> ---- Paul J. Gans
Let's try a slightly different tack, the important thing about the
infectious diseases that the Europeans carried to the New World was
that they transmitted efficiently between humans. This was the reason
they wiped out so many of the Aztecs. It doesn't matter if an infection
has a high mortality if it doesn't transmit.
Take the example of rabies, it is has a 100% mortality in humans but it
rarely transmits between humans so it doesn't cause epidemics.
I think the important thing is a large population living in close
proximity, this gives the bugs to the opportunity to evolve the capacity
to infect humans efficiently. That is to say, move from one human to
another, gain entry and circumvent host defences. Of course the host
also adapts which is what I meant by the arms race.
So farming and domestic animals can support large human populations but
it is the large populations rather than the domestic animals per se that
allow the "killer bugs" to evolve. Efficient human to human transmission
means that the human hosts can readily export the infection to other
human populations.
This is less likely with animal-human infections because the presence of
suitable animal hosts/vectors is not guaranteed. However Yellow Fever
and West Nile have been exported to the New World because suitable hosts
and vectors were present.
Whether or not Syphilis travelled in the other direction is still the
subject of heated debate. :)
But the thing that really made me uneasy about the Diamond book was the
strong undercurrent of political correctness.
Michael Kuettner
"Paul J Gans" <ga...@panix.com> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:b7shn3$avm$4...@reader1.panix.com...
> Matthew Harley <har...@eircom.net> wrote:
> >Paul J Gans wrote:n
> >>
> >> Four percent is really awful. Not in the Black Death category
> >> of course, but still. It means one in 25. I'm currently
> >> teaching a class with about 125 students in it. It would
> >> mean that about five of them will be dead by next year.
>
> >But that refers to the death rate of those actually infected
> >by the virus, and these are a very small percentage of the
> >total population.
>
> >That 4% figure applies to your students, only if ALL of them
> >have already caught SARS, which is highly unlikely, unless
> >you've been in Guandong Province and came home spreading it
> >to all of your lecture theatre, in the last few days!
>
> >I heard somewhere that the death rate from the "Spanish Flu"
> >after WWI, was less that 4%, but it killed 20 million!
> >That's scary, but it requires one to be infected first,
> >before the ca. 4% probability of death applies. If you have
> >not been infected, the probability of infection and death is
> >very, very, very small.
>
The death rate is 4 percent because of our modern medicine,
I guess. Without it the death rate would be _much_ higher,
I bet. As an example : How high is the death rate of pestilenzia,
nowadays ?
In med. times, SARS would have been a terrible disease.
Cheers,
Michael Kuettner
Paul J Gans
Yeah. You'll find that a lot of folks can be really decent.
If you were here then (I think you were) you may remember that
I was (and am) much against the war in Iraq. But when the
fighting started I said I supported our guys who were doing
the fighting. I wanted the war over as quickly as possible
because fewer of our guys die that way. And I wanted us to
win because the alternative was a million times worse.
I took a fair amount of heat for that. But I meant it.
Political discussions are fine, but then events catch up
and you have to go with reality.
The same thing is true about putting folks in jail. The
main reason why I'm against the death penalty is that I
do not want to execute innocent people, not even one. And
I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is and pay in
higher taxes to build "lifetime" facilities for those
convicted.
And I have a problem with people who get out of jail
on being psychiatrically cleared.
I've advocated a major change in our criminal system. I
don't want mental condition to be a defense in a trial. For
me a trial is to determine, as best we can, the facts of
a case. If the defendant is found guilty, *then* and only
then should other evidence come into play. No matter what
the sentence, including the possibility of none, does not
change the fact that we "know" (as best we can) who did
it.
For instance, the fellow (I forget his name) who shot Reagan
has NEVER been tried in a court of law. It is unlikely, but
possible, that he'll be released from his mental hospital
and never be tried. Officially, we don't know who did it.
The evidence has never been laid out in public.
I don't think this is right. Mental condition at present
ends up confusing the judicial system. I could, for example,
easily plead insanity and cite my participation in this
newsgroup as evidence... ;-)
---- Paul J. Gans
Paul J Gans
Exactly. Which is why it is much more of a problem in
suburban areas and the less "citified" areas of New York.
We certainly have birds in Manhattan, but almost no
mosquitos. So it hasn't been much of a problem here.
>Then there is yellow fever which is transmitted by mosquitos and
>maintained in wild monkeys but given the right conditions, it will
>happily infect and transmit between humans.
Yes.
>>
>>Without close contact this becomes uncommon.
>>
>>>Then there are insect transmitted infections where the insects fly from
>>>animal to man so the animals don't have to be in close proximity with
>>>the humans.
>>
>>Yes, but for this to work it is best if the animals and the
>>humans have lived in close proximity. Thus cow-human diseases,
>>human-some bird diseases, pig-human diseases, etc.
>>
>> ---- Paul J. Gans
>Let's try a slightly different tack, the important thing about the
>infectious diseases that the Europeans carried to the New World was
>that they transmitted efficiently between humans. This was the reason
>they wiped out so many of the Aztecs. It doesn't matter if an infection
>has a high mortality if it doesn't transmit.
Yes. There is, I think, another reason too. The Europeans
carried mutations that helped them defend against those
diseases so that, for example, chicken-pox (note the name)
was rarely fatal to *them*.
>Take the example of rabies, it is has a 100% mortality in humans but it
>rarely transmits between humans so it doesn't cause epidemics.
I'd best go get some shots for it then. I've had folks
gnawing at my ankles lately.
>I think the important thing is a large population living in close
>proximity, this gives the bugs to the opportunity to evolve the capacity
>to infect humans efficiently. That is to say, move from one human to
>another, gain entry and circumvent host defences. Of course the host
>also adapts which is what I meant by the arms race.
I agree. And as far as I know the first major really urbanized
areas in the world were in Europe in the 14th century.
I don't mean that there were not such before. There certainly
were, and bigger than the 14th century European ones. But the
sheer *number* of urban areas in western Europe was (and is)
amazing.
>So farming and domestic animals can support large human populations but
>it is the large populations rather than the domestic animals per se that
>allow the "killer bugs" to evolve. Efficient human to human transmission
>means that the human hosts can readily export the infection to other
>human populations.
Agreed.
>This is less likely with animal-human infections because the presence of
>suitable animal hosts/vectors is not guaranteed. However Yellow Fever
>and West Nile have been exported to the New World because suitable hosts
>and vectors were present.
>Whether or not Syphilis travelled in the other direction is still the
>subject of heated debate. :)
>But the thing that really made me uneasy about the Diamond book was the
>strong undercurrent of political correctness.
As an ethnologist (as well as a bird-man) I think he takes the
view that all humans have equal potential and that one cannot
claim that one society is "better" than another.
This is certainly PC, but it may also be correct.
---- Paul J. Gans
Simon Pugh
Indeed, it sounds so reasonable, but I thought it would have been better
if it had emerged from his deliberations rather than being an initial
assumption.
Simon Pugh
<mik...@eunet.at> writes
been in medieval times, things were so different.
SARS is caused by a virus so antibiotics won't make much difference.
They didn't have intensive care units back then, but on the other hand
most deaths have been in older patients often with chronic illnesses, so
there would have been fewer of them.
For what it's worth, a recent Lancet article reported that out of their
50 patients with SARS 19 had "complicated" disease which required
intensive care. As expected the average age of the complicated cases was
higher than the uncomplicated ones.
Paul J Gans
That's because you older folks have more things wrong
with you than we youngsters.
---- Paul J. Gans
Frank Martin
convenient vector buzzing around the infected monkeys to no
avail, and the mutability rate of viruses is high. Something
queer here.
"Paul J Gans" <ga...@panix.com> wrote in message
news:b7s2v4$6ip$7...@reader1.panix.com...
| Frank Martin <fr...@general.com.au> wrote:
| >It's curious why the AIDS virus didn't develop a
resistance
| >to the mosquito digestive tract as the malaria parasite
did.
| >Such a resistance would have let it spread much faster.
| >Unless this virus is a recent mutant, of course.
|
| There's no volition in evolution.
|
| ---- Paul J. Gans
Michael Kuettner
"Simon Pugh" <Ne...@mrzsp.demonX.co.uk> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:PGi5XHUg...@mrzsp.demon.co.uk...
Ah - but you forget that it never was about antibiotics.
Modern medicine also includes :
(a) knowledge of transmission of diseases (no more bad airs,eg)
-> quarantine
(b) drugs which lower fever and help circulation
(c) scrubbing (cleanliness)
etc, etc.
The bubonic plague has a mortality rate of < 1% today;
AFAIK none of the last 20 victims in the 20th century died.
So we have a base of comparison, I guess.
Cheers,
Michael Kuettner
Michael Kuettner
<snip>
> That's because you older folks have more things wrong
> with you than we youngsters.
>
Now take your girlfriend to the drive-in movies and stop
sniping at grown-ups who try to have a discussion.
Youngsters nowadays = O tempora, O morays !
;-)
Michael Kuettner
Paul J Gans
David C Pugh
news:b84ajn$n2k$6...@rex.ip-plus.net...
Morays? Are they afflicted by Shakespeare's "Dram of eel"?
--
David
"From ghouls and ghosties, and long-leggety beasties, and things that go
bump on the Net, Good Lord, deliver us"
Soren Larsen
"Paul J Gans" <ga...@panix.com> skrev i en meddelelse
> >only something like 200 people have died, so far,
> >world-wide.
>
> >What are the chances that one of your students will be
> >killed in a car crash in the next year?
>
> I think the problem is that the disease is *very* virulent.
> It is very very easy to catch just by being in the same
> elevator as an infected person.
Not just infected. I believe you have to be "sick"
to be contagious
Gordon Johnson
<mik...@eunet.at> wrote:
<SNIP>
>The bubonic plague has a mortality rate of < 1% today;
>AFAIK none of the last 20 victims in the 20th century died.
>So we have a base of comparison, I guess.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Michael Kuettner
century, rather than all over the world in that century - very
different!
Gordon.
Michael Kuettner
I've always suspected that the J. stands for Junior ;-)
Cheers,
Michael Kuettner
PS :
Btw - to add some medieval content (that's after your
teen-age ;-)):
Sunday I arrived in Italy and Monday I bought my favourite
Italian news^oldpaper : "Medioevo" - a monthly magazine
dedicated to medieval history - and guess what :
They had a CD-ROM bundled with the magazine about
the construction of the dome of Modena (it is impressive;
superior work (the dome and the CD).
The CD was created under the supervision of the "Museo
Civico d'Arte di Modena"; as far as I've seen for now,
it's very good and solid work (and that for 5 bucks).
Say what you want against the Italians (or if you don't,
I will ;-)), they have some very nice magazines which
I sorely miss in other countries (incl. Austria).
Tomorrow I'll take another peak into the CD; but as I've
said, it looks impressive so far.
Michael Kuettner
"Gordon Johnson" <gor...@kinhelp.co.uk> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:3ea5c2b3...@news.ifb.co.uk...
> On Tue, 22 Apr 2003 20:47:26 +0200, "Michael Kuettner"
> <mik...@eunet.at> wrote:
> <SNIP>
> >The bubonic plague has a mortality rate of < 1% today;
> >AFAIK none of the last 20 victims in the 20th century died.
> >So we have a base of comparison, I guess.
> >
> >Cheers,
> >
> >Michael Kuettner
> ** I think you must be referring to cases in the USA in the 20th
> century, rather than all over the world in that century - very
> different!
> Gordon.
>
That's why I used it as an example of a plague which can be
kept under control in 1st world countires; like SARS.
In countries with a less developed medical system (like China)
you get _much_ higher death rates.
That's why I compared SARS to bubonic plague in the first place.
Cheers,
Michael Kuettner
Michael Kuettner
"Michael Kuettner" <mik...@eunet.at> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:b8lbtn$sn6$4...@rex.ip-plus.net...
Please replace every "dome" with "cathedral" in the above
paragraph.
Btw, I've peeked into the CD some more - nice scans of
medieval depictions of craftsmen and workers (among others).
I like it !
Cheers,
Michael Kuettner