Action against Mugabe could be to defend the party elite
Paul A
Paul A
An army guarding power and profits
Action against Mugabe could be to defend the party elite, not to bring
democracy
Chris McGreal in Johannesburg Tuesday May 29, 2001
If Robert Mugabe's generals ever decide tell him that his two-decade reign
as Zimbabwe's ever more abusive president is over, it will not be because
the military top brass has suddenly decided to respect the will of the
people. What will probably be a bloodless, almost imperceptible coup - with
the state radio announcing that the great liberator has decided to quit
because of ill health, or some equally innocuous explanation, - will come
because Mr Mugabe threatens to bring the entire ruling Zanu-PF and its
elite crashing around him.
In the end the party, and the power, privilege and protection it has come
to stand for, may prove more important than the man.
Mr Mugabe has long counted on the 40,000-strong military for support, as
much as his political allies. For most of the past 20 years, the army has
been as inextricably linked as Zanu-PF to his rule.
Many military commanders came from the two guerrilla armies which fought
Ian Smith's regime to a standstill and forced it to make a political
surrender.
The new Zimbabwe forged a professional national army, particularly by the
standards of the region. But it also in many ways remained a revolutionary
force, with a political ideal and loyalty.
In recent years, Mr Mugabe promoted senior army officers to head the
Central Intelligence Organisation because he trusted them more than his own
spies.
There is not much doubt that at the most senior levels there is still
strong support for the ruling party, but loyalty to Zanu-PF no longer
guarantees unconditional backing for Mr Mugabe.
The military top brass, like some of the ruling party's old guard, fear the
consequences of driving Zimbabwe to the point where economic collapse, food
shortages and mass unemployment provoke widespread civil unrest and even
revolution. They equally fear losing power through the ballot box.
Fortunes
For a start, some military and political leaders are raking in small
fortunes, particularly through the army's foray into the Democratic
Republic of Congo. This is no mere looting spree. The Zimbabwe defence
force has taken a business-like approach, creating joint-venture and front
companies to cream off some of Congo's richest mines.
Among the top brass, the army chief, General Vitalis Zvinavashe, is a major
stakeholder in a company called Operation Sovereign Legitimacy which has
lucrative mining contracts in Congo through a partnership with a firm owned
by Congo's late president, Laurent Kabila.
But the military chiefs also have other reasons to fear a collapse of
Zanu-PF's rule. Less restrained opposition activists are agitating for
corruption and human rights trials of Zimbabwe's elite if and when the new
order takes over. That would undoubtedly include a number of senior
military officers, including those responsible for the massacre of tens of
thousands of people in Matabeleland in the mid-1980s.
There will also be pressure to bring to book the senior military officers
who helped to organise the occupation of hundreds of white-owned farms and
the savage attacks and murders of black farm workers and opposition
activists during the past year.
Troops in civilian clothes mingled with the "war veterans" as they stormed
the farms. The army sometimes provided transport and food.
Gen Zvinavashe and the head of the central intelligence organisation,
retired Colonel Happison Bonongwe, paid separate visits to the president of
the largely white Commercial Farmers' Union to threaten him and his members
if they opposed the government.
Mr Mugabe has hinted that as the political crisis deepens he will use any
civil unrest to impose a state of emergency and rule by decree. He will be
expecting the army to enforce what will amount to dictatorial rule and
suppress any popular protest, but the military has told the South African
government that if that happens it will launch a coup.
South African sources say the favoured candidate to lead the takeover is
Air Marshal Perence Shiri - who commanded troops in Matabeleland during the
1980s massacres, and now heads the air force. That would provide no comfort
to the opposition, as it would almost certainly herald an attempt to
perpetuate Zanu-PF's rule under one guise or another.
If the army does seize power, it will not necessarily mean a military ruler
for the country. If the military backs any politician, it is likely to be
Emmerson Mnangagwa, speaker of parliament, a former intelligence chief and
the man most frequently touted as Mr Mugabe's successor.
Mr Mnangagwa was a prime force behind the country's military foray into
Congo to prop up Mr Kabila against a Rwandan and Ugandan invasion. Perhaps
more importantly, he was an important broker for the army's expanding
business interests in Congo. Essentially, he negotiated the swapping of
Zimbabwean soldiers' lives for mining contracts.
Opposition
Mr Mugabe cannot count on the army rank and file to keep their leaders in
line. Among the footsoldiers, the war in Congo has only bolstered support
for the opposition.
The army leadership keeps a tight reign on ordinary soldiers, so few speak
out publicly, but some of those sent to fight thousands of miles away have
complained to their families of effectively being abandoned without
sufficient weapons, or even food. There is apparently a widespread view
among Zimbabwean troops that they are not defending Congo from foreign
invasion or even helping to keep the Kabila family in power. What they are
really fighting to defend are the large profits made by senior and retired
officers and military-owned companies in Congo.
The government keeps secret just how many of its soldiers have died in
Congo. The families of the killed troops are rarely told where or how they
died, and what little they are told they are ordered not to repeat. One
mother did go public after all she retrieved of her son was his head,
delivered in a box by the army.
Mr Mugabe has attempted to keep a grip on the army, if not ensure its
complete loyalty, with the mass integration of so-called war veterans into
the ranks over recent months. But that has only alienated further the more
professional soldiers.
In the end, Mr Mugabe's extreme tactics to retain power may save him the
humiliation of electoral defeat, but cost him his presidency.
The fight for power
Perence Shiri
Shiri achieved notoriety in the mid-1980s as the commander of the 5th
Brigade responsible for the Matabeleland massacres in which an estimated
20,000 Ndebele civilians were killed during the suppression of anti-Mugabe
dissent. Shiri's brigade, which was virtually all Shona-speaking, received
special military training from North Korean advisers. It was accused of
mass executions but did Shiri's career no harm. The 54-year old now heads
the air force.
He has been fiercely loyal to Mugabe but is considered politically shrewd
enough to realise that there is more at stake than the fate of one man.
Human rights groups say Shiri's name heads the list of officers who should
face trial for crimes against humanity.
Emmerson Mnangagwa
Widely regarded as the cabinet minister with the best connections to the
army he is widely tipped to succeed Mugabe, with or without the military's
help.
The 55-year old speaker of parliament is hugely trusted by Mugabe, serving
as security minister, defence minister and acting finance minister. But he
is also respected in the army, dating back to his role as one of the
leading guerrillas fighting Rhodesian white minority rule. He is at the
forefront of the exploitation of mining concessions in Congo.
He is not so popular with the public. He lost his seat in last year's
elections and only remained in parliament because Mugabe appointed him as
speaker.
Moven Mahachi
The defence minister killed in a car crash at the weekend was one of Robert
Mugabe's staunchest allies, but not overly popular with the military. He
staunchly defended Zimbabwe's military entanglement in Congo.
His loyalty to Mugabe was such that when a Zimbabwean newspaper reported
that 23 mid-ranking army officers had been arrested for plotting a coup two
years ago, he had the reporters responsible arrested and tortured.
Walthur
in Kinshasha on 28.5.2001 that their mandate had been extended for another
three months.
This action may yet embarrass or expose the "New Elite" of Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile Moven Mahachi was granted expected Hero Status and buried at
Heroes Acre on the morning of 29/5/2001.
Ron McGregor
Paul A <pa...@bigfootNILSPAM.com> quoted
> From The Guardian (UK).
> An army guarding power and profits
>
> Action against Mugabe could be to defend the party elite, not to bring
> democracy
>
> Chris McGreal in Johannesburg Tuesday May 29, 2001
>
> If Robert Mugabe's generals ever decide tell him that his two-decade reign
> as Zimbabwe's ever more abusive president is over, it will not be because
> the military top brass has suddenly decided to respect the will of the
> people. What will probably be a bloodless, almost imperceptible coup -
with
> the state radio announcing that the great liberator has decided to quit
> because of ill health, or some equally innocuous explanation, - will come
> because Mr Mugabe threatens to bring the entire ruling Zanu-PF and its
> elite crashing around him.
I have snipped the rest, because you've all had a chance to read it. I
think this is a very good bit of perceptive journalism. It will be
interesting to see if it does indeed turn out this way.
Certainly, I would never regard the Zimbabwean army as champions of
democracy, liberty, peace or freedom.