Ukranian Economy, Revisited

[fault tolerant systems]

As the US and allies keep backing the Ukrainian defence efforts to
liberated the territory with the internationally recognised Ukrainian borders,
there is one strong objection to the economic policy towards Ukraine.

In the long run, the outcome of the conflict with a rather stalemate position
on the frontlines might depend on which economy collapses first.

I have addressed this problem during the Ukrainian sovereign default
in August 2022, where credit rating sunk below CCC ("junk") from B
in 2020 and BB- in 2007.

The Ukrainian external debt is rising $10 billion per quarter, it was at all-time
high of $ 148 bn in June 2023. This might mean at this pace now it could be
$165-170 bn.

This is not looking good or promising.

I cannot pray as a believer for more weapons and ammunition, and more
boys to be sent on dragon's teeth, but you will always have my prayers for
a New Deal for Ukraine with reprogramming the Ukrainian debt with
zero-interest favourable loans, or a partial write-off of the debt.

The aid of $24 bn in military aid doesn't look good enough if the Ukrainian
external debt grew $10 bn / quarter in the same period. The only worse
imaginable thing now is that Ukrainians start to finance war with fiat
printed hrivnyas, which would skyrocket inflation and destroy citizen's
wages, retirements and savings, while debts and loans are mostly
nominated in euros as elsewhere.

There is a need for a strong currency and financial discipline, accompanied
with austerity in government spending. If some people have to risk their
lives on the frontlines, and many lose lives or limbs, the nation should
share the burden and cut down on luxurious and unnecessary spending.
Maybe a part of the populations should be helped with food rations
and nutritional supplements, here meaning the poor and the needy.
However financial stability and economic strength is crucial in this
unfortunate and bloody war, some of friends fail to put their money
where their mouth is and want to squeeze every cent of debt from
bleeding Ukraine.

You know that as a believer in the Faith I have strong faith in zero-interest
banking, however, I do not support "reproductive rights" and
"gender ideology", which is not suprising for a believer and should
not affect my judgment and support for zero-interest loan reprogramming
and escaping debt-slavery. Which happens when a country can only
pay a part of the interest and zero principal debt.

The effect, as with loan shark debts to a criminal syndicate, is that you
pay off only a part of the interest, but the debt is ever increasing.

At this point it would be advisable to tighten one's belt and survive on
oatmeal and porridge, rather than seeking fancy hangouts and luxury of
life like a fashion model.

Were there such situations in history?

In Biblical Israel, actually in the kingdom of Judah, in 2 Kings 1-19,
king Hezekiah found himself under the siege of Senaherib and the
Assyrians, then the mighty military power. Senaherib's messenger
mocked Hezekiah's spiritual renewal, his alliance with Egypt, the
land of slavery, and the fact that the Biblical Jerusalem has been
left without food and water, to at dung and drink their pee.

But that generation did not sell. They persevered on minimal rations
and minimal consumption until the help from the LORD came.
In the background, I recall that in the war there were parties and
much luxury while the boys on the frontlines were bleeding.

In this situation, with such an external debt, every hrivnya spent is
actually borrowed from the future, and every hrivnya saved is
an investment in the future. Especially it should be restricted to buy
foreign imported non-essential and luxury goods. The friends and allies
would not allow the Ukrainian government such a measure no matter
the Ukrainian blood and courage, and dire economic situation, so I have to
address your patriotism and sense of duty.

God bless the Ukrainians, and all citizens of the Ukraine, and may
he bring freedom and lasting peace.

in the LORD God
Amen