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Irvin C. Schick

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Mar 28, 1989, 9:25:16 AM3/28/89
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In article <16...@orion.cf.uci.edu> aor...@vmsa.cf.uci.edu writes:
>
> I think that an early general elections is a must. The next president
>will then be elected by this newly formed parliament.
>

No (s)he won't! One of the legal changes rammed -- er -- promulgated after
1980 is that the President is elected directly, by popular vote, not
indirectly by Parliament, as was the case previously. The rationale was to
push Turkey towards a presidential system a` la French or U.S.A., in order
to reduce the influence of competitive politics. Evren became president by
means of a temporary article in the Constitution of 1982 ("Anayasa halk
oyuyla kabul edildigi takdirde Milli Guvenlik Kurulu Baskani Cumhurbaskani
olacaktir" or some such), so that the next presidential elections will in
fact be the first ever in Turkey's history. Should be interesting to watch.

Irvin

aor...@vmsa.cf.uci.edu

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Mar 28, 1989, 1:53:16 AM3/28/89
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I just received an e-mail message from a friend of mine from Turkey.
As of Monday afternoon with 45% of the total vote counted the distribution
of the votes casted for provincial council members (Il Genel Meclisi Uyeleri ?)
is as follows:

1. SHP (Social Democrat Populist Party) 28.0%
2. DYP (True PAth Party) 26.5%
3. ANAP(Motherland PArty) 21.5% *ruling party*
4. RP (Prosperity Party) 9.5%
5. DSP (Democratic Left PArty) 9.0%
-------------------------------------------------

SHP swept away all the city mayorships of Ankara. In Izmir the margin
is said to be high. Dalan, in Istanbul was beaten by 34.5% vs. 26.5% which
is a big surprise. Only the poll of Gunaydin published on Saturday was close
to the above distribution , my friend wrote. All others were in error though
they anticipated a decline in ANAP's vote share. Gunaydin also predicted a
close-to-tie race in Istanbul.
Ozal seems determined to stay until 1992, the date for the next general
elections. Perhaps the opposition parties will push for an early general
elections.

I think that an early general elections is a must. The next president
will then be elected by this newly formed parliament.

Well, for the moment that's all the news I've got.

Best regards,
Alim Ormeci (aor...@vmsa.cf.uci.edu)

Irvin C. Schick

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Mar 28, 1989, 2:27:27 PM3/28/89
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In article <45...@pt.cs.cmu.edu> k...@unh.cs.cmu.edu (Kemal Oflazer) writes:

>In article <37...@bbn.COM> isc...@bbn.com (Irvin C. Schick) writes:
>>In article <16...@orion.cf.uci.edu> aor...@vmsa.cf.uci.edu writes:
>>>
>>> I think that an early general elections is a must. The next president
>>>will then be elected by this newly formed parliament.
>>>
>>
>>No (s)he won't! One of the legal changes rammed -- er -- promulgated after
>>1980 is that the President is elected directly, by popular vote, not
>>indirectly by Parliament, as was the case previously. The rationale was to
>
>I do not think this is right. Unless the Constitution is amended by fall,
>the next president is to be elected by the Parliament. The majority needed
>in the first few rounds is 2/3 of the members which is slightly over ANAP's
>majority. But in order to prevent the endless rounds of the 1980 election,
>the majority requirement drops to 1/2 after first few rounds (I may be wrong
>on this.). That is why Ozal was so confident that he could go for the
>presidency through the parliament if he wanted so.
>

O.K., O.K., to prevent enless rounds of "groping in the dark" arguments,
I will check this out and report back.

Irvin

p.s. Latest information I have: with 50% vote counted,

26 March 1989 29 November 1987 Difference
local general
ANAP 21.7 36.3 -14.6
SHP 28.2 24.8 3.4
DYP 25.6 19.1 6.5
DSP 9.2 8.5 0.7
RP 9.7 7.2 2.5
MCP 4.3 2.9 1.4
IDP 0.9 0.8 0.1

In my comments yesterday, I obviously underestimated Ecevit's support, and
somewhat overestimated the support of the extreme Right. The numbers would
mean that the center Left gets 37.4%, which is I think the second highest
return ever. The center Right gets 47.3%, no change there. And the extreme
Right gets 14.0%. If Ecevit would give up his Napoleonic ambitions and
join SHP with the rest of his pathetic party, the social democrats might
have a chance!

Ozal says no resignation, he will govern until 1992, and this electoral
defeat was just a warning to ANAP from the public who has had it with high
inflation. Ministers have resigned, though, and he will constitute a new
cabinet.

Incidentally, "kadin Hamlet" Fatma Girik is now Mayor of Sisli. I mean, if
Clint Eastwood can do it...

Irvin

Kemal Oflazer

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Mar 28, 1989, 10:54:58 AM3/28/89
to
In article <37...@bbn.COM> isc...@bbn.com (Irvin C. Schick) writes:
>In article <16...@orion.cf.uci.edu> aor...@vmsa.cf.uci.edu writes:
>>
>> I think that an early general elections is a must. The next president
>>will then be elected by this newly formed parliament.
>>
>
>No (s)he won't! One of the legal changes rammed -- er -- promulgated after
>1980 is that the President is elected directly, by popular vote, not
>indirectly by Parliament, as was the case previously. The rationale was to

I do not think this is right. Unless the Constitution is amended by fall,


the next president is to be elected by the Parliament. The majority needed
in the first few rounds is 2/3 of the members which is slightly over ANAP's
majority. But in order to prevent the endless rounds of the 1980 election,
the majority requirement drops to 1/2 after first few rounds (I may be wrong
on this.). That is why Ozal was so confident that he could go for the
presidency through the parliament if he wanted so.

>..

>Irvin

Kemal

--

Kemal Oflazer

unread,
Mar 28, 1989, 2:38:53 PM3/28/89
to
(Posted for Irvin Schick who was not able to due to technical problems- KO)

In article <45...@pt.cs.cmu.edu> k...@unh.cs.cmu.edu (Kemal Oflazer) writes:

O.K., O.K., to prevent enless rounds of "groping in the dark" arguments,


I will check this out and report back.

Irvin

p.s. Latest information: with 50% vote counted,

26 March 1989 29 November 1987 Difference
local general
ANAP 21.7 36.3 -14.6
SHP 28.2 24.8 3.4
DYP 25.6 19.1 6.5
DSP 9.2 8.5 0.7
RP 9.7 7.2 2.5
MCP 4.3 2.9 1.4
IDP 0.9 0.8 0.1

In my comments yesterday, I obviously underestimated Ecevit's support, and
somewhat overestimated the support of the extreme Right. The numbers would
mean that the center Left gets 37.4%, which is I think the second highest
return ever. The center Right gets 47.3%, no change there. And the extreme
Right gets 14.0%. If Ecevit would give up his Napoleonic ambitions and
join SHP with the rest of his pathetic party, the social democrats might
have a chance!

Ozal says no resignation, he will govern until 1992, and this electoral
defeat was just a warning to ANAP from the public who has had it with high
inflation. Ministers have resigned, though, and he will constitute a new
cabinet.

Incidentally, "kadin Hamlet" Fatma Girik is now Mayor of Sisli. I mean, if
Clint Eastwood can do it...

Irvin


--

Armagan Ozdinc

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Mar 28, 1989, 5:59:43 PM3/28/89
to
In article <45...@pt.cs.cmu.edu>, k...@unh.cs.cmu.edu (Kemal Oflazer) writes:

> I do not think this is right. ......the next president is to be elected by
> the Parliament.

You are absolutely right.

> ..................................................... The majority needed


> in the first few rounds is 2/3 of the members which is slightly over ANAP's
> majority. But in order to prevent the endless rounds of the 1980 election,
> the majority requirement drops to 1/2 after first few rounds (I may be wrong
> on this.).

First two rounds require 2/3 majority. The requirement drops to 1/2 in
third round. If the president is still not selected after the third round,
then the parliament is dissolved by the constitution.

> Kemal
>

Armagan

Mutlu

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Mar 28, 1989, 8:01:29 PM3/28/89
to

In article <45...@pt.cs.cmu.edu> Kemal Oflazer writes:

%In article <37...@bbn.COM> isc...@bbn.com (Irvin C. Schick) writes:
>In article <16...@orion.cf.uci.edu> aor...@vmsa.cf.uci.edu writes:
>>
>> I think that an early general elections is a must. The next president
>>will then be elected by this newly formed parliament.
>>
>
>No (s)he won't! One of the legal changes rammed -- er -- promulgated after
>1980 is that the President is elected directly, by popular vote, not
>indirectly by Parliament, as was the case previously. The rationale was to

[KO] I do not think this is right. Unless the Constitution is amended by fall,
[KO] the next president is to be elected by the Parliament.

You are right, Kemal. The president is elected by the Grand National Assembly
for a period of seven years.

>Irvin

[KO] Kemal

Thanks...
Hasan B-) Mutlu

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