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MONDAY QUARTER-BACKING: On One-Term Obasanjo Presidency and Rotatory Succession [CORRECTED]

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Mobolaji E. Aluko

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Apr 10, 2001, 7:39:56 AM4/10/01

Opening sentence CORRECTED in particular - Okogwu and Odogwu were
previously exchanged in that first sentence, but correctly used everywhere
else - my regrets and apologies! :-)

Some other minor corrections/additions inserted.

- Bolaji

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MONDAY QUARTER-BACKING: On One-Term Obasanjo Presidency and
Rotatory Succession

Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
Burtonsville, MD, USA

Monday, April 9, 2001

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

An interesting development is brewing in Nigeria - again.

Back in late-January 2001, Chief Sunny Okogwu, Kaduna-based
multi-millionaire businessman, the Ojise of Asaba (not to be confused with
Chief Sonny Odogwu, the Ide Ihaba of Asaba), and brother-in-law to General
Ibrahim Babangida dropped a bombshell which has set political tongues in
Nigeria and abroad wagging. He alleged the existence of a political power
pact (an "executive agreement") between politicians and military known
only to a select few, particularly the pioneer chairmen of the three
political parties. The content of the purported secret agreement as he
explained it in an interview was to the effect that the nation's political
power was to rotate among the three political parties with APP and AD
following the current PDP in that order, AND between the South-West,
South-East and South-South geo-political zones in that order for the next
12 years, with each doing ONE TERM each. The clincher, according to
Okogwu, was that failure to respect the agreement would see the military
return to power.

See:

http://allafrica.com/stories/200103190578.html
'I Am Not Lying' - Okogwu
Newswatch (Lagos) INTERVIEW March 19, 2001

This rather undemocratic "one-term" secret pact and complicated rotatory
succession with a blackmail of the specter of return to military rule
seems to be rather far-fetched at first bat, even though Okogwu is not
known to publicly dabble into making political statements. The disclosure
has suddenly led to increased vocal interest in the 2003 presidency from
various quarters in Nigeria, individual and ethnic.

However everybody - and his mother - has since denied the existence of
such a pact: VP Atiku, former (?) AD vice-chairman Ayo Adebanjo, Barnabas
Gemade (PDP), Alhaji Abdulkadir Ahmed (AD) and Chief George Muoghalu
(APP); Director, Defence Information, Brig. Gen. Godwin Ugbo, Lt.-Gen.
Victor Malu, Nigeria's Chief of Army Staff and Dr. Olusola Saraki, to
mention just a few. This denial has been reassuring to a few people, but
to others, not so fast: they simply believe that you cannot deny what you
were not called to be a party of. You can simply say that you don't know
about it, but cannot swear that it does not exist.

The strange thing of course is that President Olusegun Obasanjo has kept
mum about it, so has former head of state Abdusalami Abubakar and a few
others who could probably know. And of course IBB, arguably the chief
instigator of Obasanjo's candidature.

Enter Prof. Omo Omoruyi, one-time Center for Democratic Studies chairman
in Nigeria and a one-time close adviser (confidante) to IBB. Digging into
his memory archives, and writing recently in an article titled: "There
was a One-Term Pact: President Obasanjo should tell Nigerians the truth"

http://nigeriaworld.com/feature/publication/omoruyi/032501.html

he expressed no surprise at the Okogwu's disclosure, stating inter-alia:

QUOTE

"GO BACK TO POST EXPRESS OF MARCH 2, 1999.

I wish to refer to a newspaper account credited to one Senator-elect,
Alhaji Ibrahim Kura Mohammed of Kano State in the POST EXPRESS of
March 2, 1999 that General Obasanjo promised to serve for only one
term. And he added the blackmail to the bombshell, in my view, that
he would honor his pledge as he did it in 1976"

UNQUOTE

This (minor?) bombshell of its own appeared as a typical Omoruyi
throw-away line, but if true - and noting that this was BARELY THREE DAYS
AFTER THE FEBRUARY 27, 1999 presidential election contest between Obasanjo
and Falae whose "hot" court contest of the results was barely getting off
the ground - there would be much credence given to such an unsolicited
disclosure of ONE-TERM presidence by then Senator-elect Kura Mohammed.

So I went looking for the reference, and indeed I found it:

QUOTE

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.postexpresswired.com/postexpress.nsf/c457422817c9ff828525691a0076c2cc/ee8ed420c6923ef1852567270052a39d

Category: Politics
Date of Article: 03/02/99
Topic: Obasanjo is a Democrat, says Mohammed

Author: Bassey Inyang, Kano
Full Text of Article:

A SENATOR-elect in Kano State, Alhaji Ibrahim Kura Mohammed has dispelled
the rumours that a government headed by General Olusegun Obasanjo would
scuttle democracy in Nigeria.

Kura told The Post Express in Kano that the fact that General Obasanjo was
backed by some retired Generals would not make his government a military
one.

When reminded that the Second World War II hero, Adolf Hitler assumed
power through democratic means before transforming into a dictator, Kura
said the situation in the pre-World War Germany was different, adding that
dictatorship could not thrive in the country.

Apart from the present political circumstance in the country, the
senator-elect explained that his antecedence and present orientation was
sufficient to allay such fears.

Kura described Obasanjo as a gentleman and an eminent international
personality who he said, believes in the tenets of democracy, arguing that
the nation stood to benefit from his presidency.

He equally reminded Nigerians that the general has promised to spend only
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one term, adding that he would honour his pledge as he did in 1979.
------------------------------------------------------------------
(note: underline mine for emphasis)

The senator-elect also disclosed that Obasanjo would work under the
control of National Assembly, saying that he could not act arbitrarily as
a military head of state.

Kura said the upper and lower houses of the National Assembly would be
composed of eminent personalities who would be guided by the overriding
interest of the nation.

So, this time around there is going to be a world of difference between
the former National Assembly and the new one," he stated.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

UNQUOTE

Prof. Omoruyi was right about his reference after all - and very
SINGULARLY attentive on this score! One would therefore like to ask from
this rather colorful Senator Ibrahim Kura Mohammed: what did he know, and
when did he know it? Where did he know it and how?

So what is my own verdict, reading the tea-leaves?

I believe that this informal pact does exist, because I am convinced that
President Obasanjo could not, at the time he agreed to become president at
the insistence of his backers so soon after Abacha's gulag, REALLY have
had the stomach to be thinking of a second-term of presidency. I strongly
believe that he felt that what needed to be done by him for the country
could be done in one term and he would clear out for those more ambitious
in politics than himself. I do not believe that THEN he had much stomach
for re-election politics.

But that was then and this is now. President Obasanjo, seeing the
monumental task that he took upon himself, and smelling failure after just
a one-term presidency, may now be re-considering his options, and hoping
to tear up whatever informal gentleman's agreement that he had back then -
"for the sake of the nation that still needs him at a time like this." As
a compromise, I also believe that he is negotiating a new agreement to
extend his term by at most two years - hence the move to have forced
through a constitutional amendment, to have a five-year or six-year
one-term provision made re-troactive to when this present administration
started. Strange - but stranger things have happened before in Nigeria!

It is being re-packaged as a device to avoid civilian re-election traumas
that we had in 1964/65 (leading to the coup in 1966) and 1983 (leading to
Buhari's coup in December 1983 that toppled Shagari). That would be
merely postponing the evil day. The fact of the matter is that it was not
just the RE-ELECTION of incumbent persons that was the problem, but the
RE-ELECTION of incumbent parties. Without electoral reform, and with the
existence of a wide scope for rigging, that problem will not go away with
one-term presidencies or governorships.

Stay tuned for further interesting developments.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ebube Odunukwe

unread,

Apr 15, 2001, 2:05:47 AM4/15/01

Bolaji,

Forbid thyself writing whilst under the influence of "tea leaves". But your
"esteemed self" has come to accept your confused posting and corrected your
esteamed head, hoorah!
You may now continue winking back at the stars while queer Quincy Ola Kassim
continues barking at the moon from Canada.
Incorrigible and incurable are words already in existence before either of
you were born, but your characters help to understand those words much
better. You are useful, indeed.

Ebube

----- Original Message -----
From: "Mobolaji E. Aluko" <mal...@scs.howard.edu>
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Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2001 7:39 AM
Subject: MONDAY QUARTER-BACKING: On One-Term Obasanjo Presidency and
Rotatory Succession [CORRECTED]

> http://allafrica..com/stories/200103190447.html

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