AROUND THE WORLD, PRICES RISE AND FOOD SCARCITY FEARS GROW: 'RUSH FOR BIOFUELS THREATENS STARVATION ON A GLOBAL SCALE' - 'WORLDWIDE SHORTAGES FORCING UP SUPERMARKET FOOD PRICES--AND WORSE IS TO COME'
whiley...@live.ca
'Worldwide Shortages Forcing Up Supermarket Food Prices - And Worse Is
To Come' (Read the full stories below)
'Rush for biofuels threatens starvation on a global scale'
by Lewis Smith and Francis Elliott
The Times, UK,
March 8, 2008
The rush towards biofuels is theatening world food production and the
lives of billions of people, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser
said yesterday.
Professor John Beddington put himself at odds with ministers who have
committed Britain to large increases in the use of biofuels over the
coming decades. In his first important public speech since he was
appointed, he described the potential impacts of food shortages as the
"elephant in the room" and a problem which rivalled that of climate
change.
"It's very hard to imagine how we can see the world growing enough
crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the
enormous demand for food," he told a conference on sustainability in
London yesterday.
"The supply of food really isn't keeping up."
By 2030, he said, the world population would have increased to such an
extent that a 50 per cent increase in food production would be needed.
By 2080 it would need to double. But the rush to biofuels - allegedly
environmentally friendly - meant that increasing amount of arable land
had been given over to fuel rather than food.
The world's population is forecast to increase from the six billion at
the start of the millennium to nine billion by 2050. Already biofuels
have contributed to the rapid rise in international wheat prices and
Professor Beddington cautioned that it was likely to be only a matter
of time before shoppers in the United Kingdom faced big price rises
because of the soaring cost of feeding livestock.
His comments come just a month after the Government welcomed a
European Commission target requiring 10 per cent of all fuel sold in
British service stations to be derived from plants within 12 years.
Already biofuels attract a 20p per litre reduction in duty to
encourage their uptake. Hilary Benn, the Environment Secretary,
recently announced additional funding for biofuel research and farmers
can claim subsidies to grow crops for energy.
Last year President Bush called for a massive increase in the use of
ethanol in America over the next decade. The US now devotes more
acreage to growing corn than at any time since 1944. Farmers planted
90.5 million acres in 2007, 15 per cent more than a year before. If
White House efforts to double ethanol production this year are
achieved, and in due course 40 per cent of that corn ends up in petrol
tanks, the world will face a harder and costlier time feeding itself.
A spokesman for Ruth Kelly, the Transport Secretary, insisted that the
Government was well aware of the possible negative effects of
biofuels. "We take this issue very seriously and we are not prepared
to go beyond current target levels for biofuels until we are satisfied
it can be done sustainably."
Professor Beddington said that the prospect of food shortages over the
next 20 years was so acute that politicians, scientists and farmers
must begin to tackle it immediately.
"Climate change is a real issue and is rightly being dealt with by
major global investment," he said afterwards. "However, I am concerned
there is another major issue along a similar time-scale, an elephant
in the room - that of food and energy security. This is giving me and
many of my scientific colleagues much concern."
Population levels are growing so fast already that an extra six
million people are born every month. Growing enough food for everyone
was further challenged, he said, because of climate change, which was
likely to lead to a shortage of water.
Scientists say that intense dry spells will become more frequent over
the next century. The supply of water will be put under further
pressure because of the increased number of people who need it, not
only to drink but to keep their crops alive. The production of a tonne
of wheat, for example, requires 50 tonnes of water.
Because it was almost impossible to control the population increase in
the short term, Professor Beddington told the conference, other
measures would need to be taken. "Agriculture has been doing pretty
well against the population size but things are changing now and they
are changing quite dramatically," he said.
"Don't we need to do something about food? Demand has grown
enormously, particularly in China and India, where much of the driving
force is increased demand. By 2030 energy demand is going to be up by
50 per cent and demand for food is going to be up by 50 per cent."
The increase in demand has been reflected by the rapid rise in the
prices of basic commodities, including wheat, over the past two
years.
Biofuels have been put forward as a means of reducing the greenhouse
gas emissions pumped out by fossil fuels but recent studies have
questioned their impact when all factors, such as the use of
fertilisers on the crops, are taken into account. Critics have been
angered by the loss of tropical rainforests, which have been cleared
to allow farmers to grow biofuel crops.
Deforestation has been calculated to account for about 18 per cent of
world greenhouse gas emissions and Professor Beddington said that to
destroy rainforests in order to grow biofuel crops was "insane". He
added: "Some of the biofuels are hopeless, in the sense that the idea
that you cut down rainforest to actually grow biofuels seems
profoundly stupid." He said that human ingenuity was extraordinary and
he was confident that food production could be boosted, including by
growing genetically modified crops.
Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Programme, told
the European Parliament in Brussels yesterday: "The shift to biofuels
production has diverted lands out of the food chain. Food prices such
as palm oil in Africa are now set at fuel prices. It may be a bonanza
for farmers - I hope it is true - but in the short term, the world's
poorest are hit hard."
__________________________
Worldwide shortages forcing up supermarket food prices - and worse is
to come
City analysts now talk of 'horrific' rises in the cost of essentials
By Sean Poulter,
Daily Mail, UK,
7th March 2008
Food shortages and spiralling grocery bills, coupled with the rise of
the middle class, pose the greatest threat to the world as we know it,
according to the Government's chief scientific adviser.
John Beddington yesterday painted a gloomy scenario of nations
tormented by fears over food supplies.
The professor warned that global food supplies are being squeezed
while City analysts have talked of "horrific" increases in the cost of
filling the fridge.
Climate change - from severe droughts to freak floods such as those
seen in the UK last year - is causing a shortage of key crops.
At the same time, increasing wealth in countries such as China and
India is fuelling unprecedented demand.
Britons have already suffered punishing increases in the cost of
commodities including wheat, rice, dairy and vegetables. Some products
have increased in price by as much as 80 per cent in a year.
The professor said there had already been indications of a "perfect
storm" brewing for agriculture.
These include increasing food and energy prices, climate change, the
rise in the world's population - expected to reach nine billion by
2050 - and water shortages.
There is also concern that global food supplies will be squeezed if
farmers find it is more profitable to grow biofuels to replace oil.
Professor Beddington said a surge in investment in modern agriculture
and irrigation was essential if global food security was to be
achieved.
The professor, who was speaking at the Sustainable Development UK
conference in Westminster, warned the world's population is growing
well ahead of the ability of farmers to increase output.
Food production has been lagging behind population growth since 2005.
As a result, the global food supply is said to be running at an all-
time low.
The World Bank estimates that, as the economies of China and India
boom, the number of households in developing countries with incomes
above £8,000 per annum will rise from 352 million in 2000 to 2.1
billion by 2030.
At the same time, the global population will surge from 6.5 billion to
around 8.5 billion.
As the expanding middle classes of China and India change their diet
from pulses and grains to more meat, this is putting a huge pressure
on agriculture.
Chicken, pigs and some beef are fed on grain, so the global demand for
grain will rise along with the need for water.
In his talk, Professor Beddington referred to a report by Joachim von
Braun, the director-general of the International Food Policy Research
Institute.
Mr Von Braun claims that existing "high prices do not appear likely to
fall soon". It is feared this may cause the poor to shift to even less-
balanced diets.
The professor said: "Business as usual could mean increased misery,
especially for the world's poorest populations."
Another pressure is global urbanisation, according to Professor
Beddington.
Cities are now home to half of the world's 6.6 billion humans and by
2030 that urban fraction will rise to 60 per cent. This is likely to
put a huge strain on resources, particularity water.
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