Booy says Swine Flu is twice as deadly as normal flu
Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj. Ahmad
Although twice as deadly, it will only be about 12 for Australia
compared to 6, normally, for children.
No age group show but I believe it is for those older than 2, which
are especially vulnerable to even normal flu, let alone Swine Flu.
Roxon reassures parents over swine flu
* July 2, 2009 - 2:24PM
Parents of young children should not be unduly alarmed following the
death of a Victorian three-year-old boy with swine flu, federal Health
Minister Nicola Roxon says.
Ms Roxon says swine flu remains mild for the majority of people and
they recover without medical intervention.
The boy died in his Doveton home in Melbourne's southeast on June 26
but his death was only announced yesterday. He is the first child with
swine flu to die in Australia.
Ms Roxon refused to say if the toddler had underlying medical issues,
saying the case is now in the hands of police and the coroner.
"The death of any child is a tragedy," Ms Roxon said.
"There are police and coronial inquiries being undertaken and it is
simply not appropriate for me to make any comment on the case.
"I want to assure people that they should not be unduly alarmed.
"This is a serious disease and it can be severe in some people but it
is mild overall for most people."
So far 10 people in Australia - seven from Victoria - have died while
suffering from swine flu.
Ms Roxon said the disease has "a preference for young healthy people".
She said the risk factors remained underlying chronic diseases, such
as obesity and respiratory problems.
"Children can have those diseases - they can have asthma and
diabetes," she said.
"The very young haven't been flagged as particularly at risk although
the very young and very old are always at risk from seasonal flus and
again can be vulnerable to this type of disease."
Victorian Premier John Brumby says the death of the young boy is
distressing and should act as a warning to families as winter arrives
in Australia's southern states.
"It's obviously distressing when you have the loss of the life of a
young child," he told reporters at the Council of Australian
Governments (COAG) meeting in Darwin.
"In relation to this case, there are some particular circumstances and
it's a matter that's being investigated by the coroner and Victoria
Police."
Mr Brumby said H1N1 appeared to be "relatively mild" and there was "no
cause for alarm".
A leading disease expert believes that twice as many children will die
of swine flu as from regular influenza, in the next 12 months.
But Professor Robert Booy says the death tally will still be fairly
small - around 10 or 12 per year.
Three to six children die every year from regular influenza, he says.
"It (death from swine flu) can occur in a healthy child although most
of them we believe will occur in a child with a problem, say a chronic
heart problem, long-standing lung, kidney, liver (problems) or
diabetes," Prof Booy, from Westmead Children's Hospital in Sydney,
told ABC Radio.
Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj. Ahmad
> On Thu, 2 Jul 2009 06:51:38 -0700 (PDT), "Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj.> Prof Booy has continually stated that this is not a deadly pandemic.
>
> Apparently, you were not listening.
>
> >Although twice as deadly, it will only be about 12 for Australia
> >compared to 6, normally, for children.
>
> about.
>
> As I explained to you earlier, many more people are being infected,
> though the death rate is low, we expect the *total* of deaths to be
> higher than seasonal flu because so many more people will become
> infected.
Now you are beginning to realise.
Even if Swine flu were mild, it will kill additional people and in
Argnetina it has already starting to overwhelm their health care.
The Argentinian commentors expect Swine Flu to be equally deadly as
common flu, but it will surely overload their health care.
Although Booy is not clear about it, normal interpretation will
indicate there there are additional 12 children's deaths due to Swine
flu making the total to be 18.
So far, despite the peak flu season, there is no death attributed to
normal flu, making Swine flu many times more virulent than common flu.
Common flu also kills the vulnerable children, not the perfectly
healthy ones in much larger numbers. Even those that are apparently
healthy, may die because their underlying medical problems had not
been diagnosed properly.
>
> It isn't rocket science, but it does seem far beyond your abilities.
> --
> Cheers
> Paul Saccani
> Perth, Western Australia.
Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj. Ahmad
> On Sun,5Jul200916:53:03-0700(PDT), "Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj.
>
>
>
...
> >> As I explained to you earlier, many more people are being infected,
> >> though the death rate is low, we expect the *total* of deaths to be
> >> higher than seasonal flu because so many more people will become
> >> infected.
>
> >Now you are beginning to realise.
>
> What an arrogant ass you are - you claimed that pandemic A was more
> deadly than seasonal A - I pointed out that this was not true.
>
> Now that you can't sustain that line of horse shit, you are trying to
> bluff that this was never your intent.
What do you think my intent was?
Didn't I always accompany the data and make conclusions based on the
data, unlike you? But then these data are conditional, mainly because
it depends so much on human actions. If you treat people well, the
number of deaths will reduce and vice versa.
>
> >Even if Swine flu were mild, it will kill additional people and in
> >Argnetina it has already starting to overwhelm their health care.
> >The Argentinian commentors expect Swine Flu to be equally deadly as
> >common flu, but it will surely overload their health care.
>
> You were saying that about Australia two weeks ago.
Why don't you quote what actually I wrote 2 weeks ago?
I never wrote that there will be 20,000 deaths in Australia/Victoria
in 2 weeks, it was you, who said it. What idiot will say that except
you. You repeated it more than 3 times and yet never bother to recall
what I actually wrote.
>
> How accurate was your claim?
>
> Turns out to be horse shit, doesn't it?
It was your claim, not mine after all. I wonder how the Australian
authorities are treating this swine flu. Are they still using Tamilflu
agressively?
>
> >Although Booy is not clear about it, normal interpretation will
> >indicate there there are additional12children's deaths due to Swine
> >flu making the total to be18.
>
> False.
>
> >So far, despite the peak flu season, there is no death attributed to
> >normal flu, making Swine flu many times more virulent than common flu.
>
> I've already pointed out to you that this is false. Why are you
> lying?
Normal flu deaths recently were never reported in the news. It is you
who must be lying.
Even Swine flu deaths are not confirmed as being due to Swine flu, so
imagine if it were flu deaths. How can you be so sure that there are
confirmed common flu deaths??
You must be lying then.
>
> >Common flu also kills the vulnerable children, not the perfectly
> >healthy ones in much larger numbers. Even those that are apparently
> >healthy, may die because their underlying medical problems had not
> >been diagnosed properly.
>
> Hard to determine what your ungrammatical and confused statements are
> intended to convey. It really looks like you don't know what you are
> talking about.
How can you be so sure without doing any detailed tests???
So correlate your existing data with the events.
...
Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj. Ahmad
> On Mon,6Jul200905:15:23-0700(PDT), "Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj.
>
...
>
> >So correlate your existing data with the events.
>
> It would be rather helpful if you paid attention to what people were
> saying, instead of what you imagine they are saying.
Try that for once.
REmember the data quoted by the New Zealander's researcher.
In New York, 90% were Swine flu, only 10% were common. No death due to
common flu but many deaths already from Swine Flu.
Why don't you read the data as it is, instead of talking nonsense such
as common flu is more virulent than Swine flu, repeating the ESTIMATED
CDC number of swine flu deaths while IGNORING, confirmed Swine Flu
deaths, instead of common flu deaths.
Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj. Ahmad
> On Wed,8Jul200907:07:26-0700(PDT), "Ir. Hj. Othman bin Hj.
...
> That isn't nonsense, but given your lack of intelligence, it isn't
> surprising that you can't understand that a death rate of0.1% per
> infection indicates greater virulence than a death rate of no greater
> than0.07% per infection.
The confirmed death rate is more than 1% now for Swine Flu. Your
figure for Swine Flu is only an estimate. The figure of 0.1% is also
an exaggerated estimate. If it were true for Normal Flu it will be
true for swine flu because their effects and symptoms are similar.
You stupid brain cannot seem to compute that a sample that is only 3
months old cannot be compared with a sample of 12 months, especially
for infectious diseases.
All data indicate that among those with flu symptons, 95% are Swine
Flu. WHO recommends that no more testing is required to confirm Swine
flu, because most probably they are swine flu. CAn't you ever read
these simple WHO advices?
By the end of the year, the death toll for Swine flu will be 20 times
that of common flu.
Where are you deaths for common flu so far in the last 3 months? None
at all, whereas there are more than 10 in Victoria alone.
So in Victoria itself, in one year, Swine Flu will kill 10x10x10x10,
which is 10,000, if no attempt is made to stop its spread or
vaccination applied properly. This is assuming that Tamilflu can still
be used and respirators are sufficient for the large numbers of people
in ICU.
10,000 out of 1,000,000(infection rate of 20%) is only 1%, well
within range of the experiences in Argentina that had not bothered to
control the spread of swine flu or even take special effort to contain
its spread.
The experimental data in other nations indicate an infection rate of
30%, but this is in summer. In winter, the infection rate will be even
higher. As swine flu is novel, less people are immune to it so
increasing its infection rate even further. So I should expect up to
50% infection rate for Victoria. Where actually is Victoria?
...
> Strange, what you call confirmed swine flu deaths generally fall into
> ICD category12, but you don't want to include that category when
> talking about seasonal influenza.
Why should I not include category12 when I it is not mentioned in any
of the news articles that I quote?
>
> That's one good reason why you are an ass hat.
Why don't you look at yourself in the mirror?
>
> But there are many to choose from.
Try that on yourself also. It may even fit much better.