Northern Iraq appears to be entering a delicate and potentially dangerous phase as
tension between rival Kurdish groups intensify following a rebel operation which is
pushing Iraqi forces back from their front lines and towards the strategic
oil-producing city of Kirkuk.
Aspiring leaders of the future government of post-war Iraq appear to have been slapped
down in their quest to set up a government-in-exile they had hoped could immediately
occupy the power vacuum following the expected removal of Saddam Hussein.
Washington has failed in its attempt to elicit guarantees from Turkey that it will not
send troops over its border into northern Iraq even as one of Ankara's major
trigger-points for doing so appears to have been breached.
President George Bush's personal envoy to the Iraqi opposition, Zalmai Khalilzad, said
yesterday that no agreement had been reached "with regard to Turkish forces entering
northern Iraq". Speaking in Salahuddin, the headquarters of the Kurdish Democratic
Party, he added: "We think there is no need for Turkish forces."
Mr Khalilzad's meeting with the press was postponed by four hours and moved from the
city of Irbil to the higher ground of Salahuddin after a shell exploded close to the
Four Lanterns Hotel, where it had been due to take place.
The KDP's interior minister, Khalil Sinjari, said it was not known what type of shell
it was or where it had been fired from, but he hinted at "terrorist forces" bent on
destabilising the area and spreading fear among locals.
Northern Iraq already appears to be on the brink of instability. Officials of the KDP
say privately that unilateral military action by its northern rival, the Patriotic
Union of Kurdistan, in sending its troops into Iraqi territory was aimed at drawing
Turkish troops into the region.
The politics of northern Iraq are complicated and murky. The region has been protected
by the British and Americans for 12 years in the aftermath of attacks by Saddam
Hussein which were aimed at wiping out the minority Kurdish population of Iraq.
Control of the area, which has become a pseudo-independent Kurdish state, is shared by
two main groups, the KDP and the PUK. Both are run by warlords with deep historical
ties to their regions and equally deep rivalries. A power struggle between the two
spilled into civil war in the early and mid-1990s. A border divides the two areas and
the two governments are barely able to agree on anything which could unite them into a
credible single leadership for all Kurds.
The decision by the PUK leader, Jalal Talibani, to send his militia into Iraqi
terrority flies in the face of commitments by all factions with men under arms to
await a decision by the Americans on how the northern campaign should proceed.
Reports yesterday said that the PUK forces had pushed the Saddamite troops to within
10km of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Turkey has already made it clear that any attempt
by Kurdish groups to take Kirkuk will justify an invasion.
"The KDP leaders think that Talibani is being very devious here, trying to draw the
Turks over the border into KDP territory so that the KDP will be wiped out and he will
emerge the strongest force," said a member of a powerful political faction in Irbil.
Turkey's south-eastern border is alongside the KDP's share of northern Iraq, where a
Turkish troop presence has been a reality close to the border for a decade and in the
capital, Irbil, since 1998. A Turkish presence could trigger a civil war in the
Kurdish region, as leaders including Talibani, and the KDP head Massoud Barzani, have
threatened that their militia will fire on any Turkish troops who cross into their
territory.
In another development yesterday, the KDP released a statement on behalf of the Iraqi
opposition which made no mention of the "Interim Iraqi Alliance" which had been
announced by the deputy to the Arab member of the leadership council, Dr Ahmed
Chalabi, who heads the Iraqi National Council.
Nabeel Musawi said earlier this week that a government-in-waiting, complete with a
14-member cabinet, had been formed by the four opposition groups and was standing by
to take power immediately after the war. That plan appears to have been vetoed by
Washington, which has long opposed the establishment of a provisional government.
The Iraqi forces near Kirkuk were quick to signal that their battle was not over. A
salvo of rockets slammed into Chamchamal shortly before 6 p.m. in what a PUK official
said was a classic Iraqi army maneouvre of firing on lost ground. At least one person
was injured.