http://i49.tinypic.com/rrowpi.jpg
Notice how the NE Asian countries fall in the upper right part of the
graph, while the African countries fall in the bottom left?
And notice the residuals, how correlation is not 100 etc.. In some
cases there is tremendous amount of potential left to be realized
(e.g. China). In other cases, rich natural resources matter, and in
the case of Qatar, thrust even borderline retarded countries into the
limelight (e.g. Qatar with only an IQ of 78, see top circular
datapoint)
:)
What will the picture be?
More of the same. Remember 2000? The world is going downhill.
"All statistical models are wrong, but some are useful."
Or as Mark Twain said, it's difficult to predict, especially about the
future.
Yes, that applies to the role of intelligence as well.
And so, to answer your question, not really. 9/11 changed a lot of
things, what if nuclear war were to break out tomorrow?
But barring extreme perturbations of the system or extinction-event
meteorite strikes etc, and assuming that a modern post-industrial
knowledge-based 1st world economy is what nations and peoples still
value and are striving for, I think human capital - especially innate
cognitive capital - captured at least partially by IQ - will continue to
matter and will matter even more than what we're seen in the 20th
century for the simple reason that we're closer to an equilibrium state,
that is, environmental accidents have been increasingly ironed out.
(e.g. Korea, savaged by war and lacking natural resources, was once
thought to be doomed compared to resource-rich Philippines or Ghana in
the 60s). What remains is therefore proportionately and increasing more
the residual, a.k.a., 'nature's' inequality. And that makes it
ever-more-difficult to change.
(BTW you see this on a more micro level within the US too - the IQ gap
between rich blacks and rich whites is actually larger compared to that
between poor blacks and poor whites. Point: environment is not the panacea.)
It's actually not a new concept; on the contrary it's a very old one.
It's called "history repeats itself".
And people know this deep in their hearts. Even poets distilled this btw
- this one by Kipling - one of the few Western poets worth reading
http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm
Point? Even all the multimillion or multibillion $ and all the
government or 'goodwill' liberal America ostensibly are pouring in still
can't conquer ourselves.