Russia Informs Iraq on Coalition's Military Plan
RancorCientífico
NewsMax.com Wires
Tuesday, April 1, 2003
WASHINGTON – Russian military advisers have told Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein and his government that the main Allied drive on
Baghdad will not take place until mid-April and will then come around
the west of the city, Russian journalists and analysts with strong
links to Russian military intelligence now say.
Strikingly, the Russian analysts, whose work appears on the iraqwar.ru
Web site, believe that U.S. and Allied forces are still overwhelmingly
likely to win the war and that they are performing in a highly
impressive manner. The reports are described as "based on the Russian
military intelligence - the Main Intelligence Directorate or GRU -
reports."
A March 31 report on the site revealed that Iraq was receiving
analytical advice from Russian officials. "Russian military analysts
are advising the Iraqi military command against excessive optimism,"
it said.
The Russian analysts stated: "There is no question that the U.S.
'blitzkrieg' failed to take control of Iraq and to destroy its army.
It is clear that the Americans got bogged down in Iraq and that the
military campaign hit a snag."
But they then went on to caution the Iraqis: "The Iraq command is now
in danger of underestimating the enemy. For there is no reason to
question the resolve of the Americans and their determination to reach
the set goal - complete occupation of Iraq."
They continued: "Despite some obvious miscalculations and errors of
the coalition's high command, the [Allied] troops that have entered
Iraq maintain high combat readiness and are willing to fight. The
initiative in the war remains firmly in the hands of the coalition."
Indeed, in a March 30 report the Russian analysts predicted, "The
coalition is already planning a new large scale operation that will
utilize the new forces currently being deployed in the region."
Russian intelligence believed "this large-scale operation will be
launched from the general vicinity of Karabela and will develop into a
wide maneuver around Baghdad from the west ending in the area of the
Tartar lake east of al-Hadid - or east of the Tartar lake at
Samarrah," the Russian analysts' report said.
"From this point a part of the force will continue advancing toward
Saddam Hussein's home town of Tikrit and from there it will turn
towards Baghdad from the north through Samarrah and Baahkuba;
meanwhile the rest of the force will strike the rears of the Iraqi
forces fighting in the north near Kirkuk and Mosul.
"Such an operation would require up to 60,000 troops, no less than 300
tanks and 200 helicopters," the Russian analysts concluded. "It is
believed that such forces can be put together by April 15 and by April
18 they should be ready for to attack."
It remains to be seen, of course if the war will indeed follow this
highly detailed prediction. Current reports indicate that U.S. forces
are slowly closing in on Baghdad and probing for weaknesses in Iraqi
defenses already.
What is certainly the case is that Iraqi resistance has been
impressive and prolonged and that contrary to universally held U.S.
media assumptions, and the confident expectations of Defense
Department war planners, the Iraqis have succeeded in holding up and
preventing U.S. conquest and occupation of all major cities to this
point, almost two weeks into the war. The main, and bloodiest, clashes
of the war are clearly still ahead.
With this in mind one other, sobering conclusion of the GRU analysts
may prove significant. The March 30 report concluded, "Russian
military analysts believe that the critical [point] for the U.S.
duration of the war would be over 90 days" - in other words, after
mid-June - "provided that during that time the coalition will sustain
over 1,000 killed. Under such circumstances a serious political crisis
in the U.S. and the world will be unavoidable."
Analysis by Martin Sieff, UPI senior news analyst.
Copyright 2003 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.
fonte: http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/4/1/154653.shtml