Pakistani population set to double , water availability plummet in one generation
Habshi
Jammu and Kashmir to use more of the water flowing through their
territories as populations there double in a generation . Just 40MAF
extra are available even if all the river waters were stopped from
going to the sea while needs will rise by 140MAF. Its time to make
Allah accountable for all the prayers he has demanded and received
without delivering .
Managing water shortage
According to one group on the average some 35-40 MAF water in the
Indus river system goes to sea unused every year. This group claims
that during the last 25 years (post Tarbela) some 875 to 1000 MAF
water had escaped to sea. Valued at Rs 3000 per acre foot, the nation
has suffered a loss of three trillion rupees during this period.
The gap between water demand and availability will further widen due
to increase in population which is anticipated to increase from 140
million in the year 2000 to 170 million in the year 2010 to 221
million in the year 2025.
According to the latest estimate, the annual irrigation requirements
at farm gate will increase from 100 MAF in the year 2000 to 143 MAF in
the year 2025. At existing irrigation efficiency of 40 percent, the
gross irrigation requirements will increase from 250 MAF in 2000 to
358 MAF in 2025, an increase of 108 MAF. In addition, it is estimated
that 16 MAF water will also be required for domestic, industrial and
other uses in 2025. Therefore, total additional water requirement in
2025 will be of the order of 124 MAF. The previous estimates indicates
annual water shortfall of 100 - 150 MAF in 2025.
The total annual sustainable water resources development potential
available is 66 MAF (32 MAF from river flows, 18 MAF from ground water
and the remaining 16 MAF from rainfall harvesting). Therefore, 48 MAF
annual sustainable development potential is available for exploitation
through building storage dams and 18 MAF through exploitation of
groundwater.
By Dr. Ghulam Haider
The prolonged drought has seriously aggravated the already worst water
crisis in the short history of Pakistan. During the last 3-4 years,
the water shortages in the Indus Basin during the rabi season has been
exceeding 40-50 percent.
Even during the kharif season, water surplus season, a shortfall of
the order of 20 to 30 percent has been experienced. I myself had
predicted earlier that the water crisis will get worse if no remedial
measures were taken without further delay.
One of the several mitigation measures suggested were construction of
several storage dams on Indus river system. Unfortunately no progress
has been made on this front. Rather the debate between two groups,
which is going on for more than 25 years "whether to build or not to
build more storage dams", has further intensified against building new
reservoirs.
According to one group on the average some 35-40 MAF water in the
Indus river system goes to sea unused every year. This group claims
that during the last 25 years (post Tarbela) some 875 to 1000 MAF
water had escaped to sea. Valued at Rs 3000 per acre foot, the nation
has suffered a loss of three trillion rupees during this period.
The group is of the view that had timely appropriate remedial measures
been undertaken to store even a part of this water, it could have
helped to alleviate present water crisis, boost agriculture production
and improve water supply for industrial, domestic and other uses.
The second group is of the strong view that there is no surplus water
available for storage. This group claims that during the last 2-3
years (drought years) hardly any surplus water had flown to sea. The
two groups are talking of two different conditions.
One group talks of flow available during average and wet year(s) while
the other group talks of flow available during drought year(s) only.
The second group also claims that some water should also flow
downstream Kotri to check sea water intrusion and to protect natural
environment in the area below Kotri barrage. Both groups are sticking
to their positions and the impasse continues.
Though the claims of both the groups appear justified but only under
specific conditions of normal/wet year(s) and drought year(s). If we
assume that the drought cycle will continue indefinitely from now
onward, the agriculture in the Indus Basin will be doomed and so will
be people of Pakistan. Ethiopia like situation will develop. The
country will lose its self-respect and independence and will be left
at the mercy of foreign donors for meeting food and fibre requirements
of her people.
However, if we believe that the present dry cycle will end and that it
will be followed by normal and wet years as before, then on the
average 35-40 MAF surplus water will be available for storage
annually. After ensuring minimum agreed releases below Kotri to
mitigate sea intrusion and to sustain natural environment, the rest of
the surplus water should be stored in several storage dams for which
sites are available at Kalabagh, Dhok Pathan, Sanjwal-Akhori, Skardu,
Bhasha, etc.
To meet future water requirements we must build several storage
reservoirs to store at least 25-30 MAF water annually. The storage
capacity of these reservoirs should be such that maximum surplus river
flows can be stored even during wet year(s) which will definitely
follow, may be sooner than later.
We should be ready to store all surplus flow available during normal
and wet year(s) to meet water requirements during subsequent low
rainfall year(s). A study carried out by the Pakistan Water
Partnership (2000) recommended immediate construction of two large
storage reservoirs to store 12 MAF water.
The past experience shows that all the provinces will benefit from the
creation of additional storages. It is worth noting that water
availability in the province of NWFP, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan
increased respectively by 66, 19, 29 and 0 per cent after the Mangla
dam construction and by 20, 8, 13 and 0 per cent after the
commissioning of the Tarbela dam.
The overall water supply in the provinces of Punjab, Sindh and NWFP
increased by 28, 45 and 50 per cent respectively after the
commissioning of the Tarbela dam. It is evident that the provinces of
Sindh and NWFP benefited for more than the province of Punjab. The
same can be expected for future. The lack of consensus over building
of more reservoirs is not due to technical reason but mainly because
of political rivalry, misconceptions and lack of confidence between
the provinces. The lower riparians appear to have developed serious
apprehensions about rightful distribution of water as per agreed
formula.
They are of the strong views that upper riparian will take undue
advantage of building storage reservoirs in the upper reaches of Indus
river and devoid them of their rightful share of water. To create
consensus on construction of more reservoirs, this misconception
should be removed and confidence building measures undertaken on
priority basis. The feeling of being a "Pakistani first" must prevail
upon the feeling of being a Punjabi, Sindhi, Balochi or Pathan.
For this purpose, there needs to be a strong will and commitment from
the provincial and federal governments. The federal government,
provincial governments, the water stakeholders and the electronic
media must rise above petty differences and apprehensions and assist
in the creation of national consensus on this vital national issue
failing which every one will be the looser. There is thus a dire need
to strengthen national cohesion and integration.
Water Management: It appears that water shortage will continue in
future if necessary remedial measures are not taken on priority basis.
There are four important factors that needs to be considered for the
mitigation of existing and future water shortages. These are (i) water
resources development, (ii) water resources conservation, (iii) water
demand management and (iv) satisfactory water distribution among the
provinces. As far as water resources development is concerned, there
is a need to increase water availability to meet future water
shortfall.
As for water conservation is concerned, there is a strong need to
conserve water. The existing irrigation efficiency is only about 30 -
40 percent which can be improved to 50 to 60 percent by improving
existing traditional irrigation methods and lining of irrigation
system and up to 70-80 percent by introducing pressure irrigation
methods such as sprinkler, drip, bubbler, etc.
There is a potential to conserve 30-50 MAF annually through adopting
water conservation measures, such as improving water conveyance and
application efficiencies. This will assist in narrowing the gap
between future water availability and demand.
The third important factor is demand management. The future water
requirements can be cut down through efficient demand management. The
most important step in the demand management is the population
control. The present annual population growth rate of nearly 3 percent
is among the highest in the world. This needs to be brought down to
less than 2 percent, by adopting appropriate population control
measures. Unless this is done, no matter whatever we plan and
implement, it will be very difficult to match increase in water
availability to meet food and fibre requirements of the exploding
population.
The second important step in demand management is the readjustment of
existing cropping patterns. For this purpose, it will be necessary to
develop crop zoning i.e. to grow crops suitable for different soil,
water and climate conditions. The area under high delta crops such as
rice, sugar-cane, etc, will need to be cut down or these crops should
preferably be grown in high rainfall area of the country to reduce
water-requirements.
The forth and the most important factor is satisfactory water
distribution among provinces as per agreed formula. This is the key
factor. Here the federal and provincial governments and politicians
should create consensus on an agreed water distribution formula
without which it may not be possible to construct any future water
resources development project.
It is pity that we have not been able to develop an agreed and
acceptable water distribution formula during the last 54 years.
Although Water Accords of 1991 and water sharing formula of 1994
exists yet differences have surfaced among the provinces on these.
There is thus a dire need to have an agreed water sharing formula
acceptable to all the four provinces, Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas.
Once this is agreed, then water distribution among the provinces
should be carried out strictly in letter and in spirit according to
the agreed formula. The lower riparians must be ensured of their
rightful agreed share of water through a constitutional provision.
Wapda Vision 2025 identified several water resources development
projects in phase-I. These are Bhasha dam, Thal Reservoir, Greater
Thal Canal, Chashma Right Bank Canal (lift irrigation), Sehwan
Barrage, Rainy and Thar Canal, Gomal Zam Dam, Mirani Dam, Kachhi Canal
and Satpara Dam. Some of these projects have been dropped while
serious differences have appeared among provinces even on the
implementation of these projects.
Unless misconceptions/apprehensions between the provinces are removed,
confidence restored and consensus created, it will not be possible to
undertake future water resources development projects so vital for the
prosperity and well-being of the people of Pakistan. The time is
running out. Quick actions are need of the hour.
The writer is former FAO/UNO irrigation practices expert/agriculture
scientist, Wapda.