NY TIMES: Japan's Economy Shrinks by 11.2% Annual Rate
Ernest Schaal
In today's New York Times (Page C1), there was an article
entitled "Japan's Economy Shrinks by 11.2% Annual Rate" written
by Sheryl WuDunn. It reported that the economic output in the
second quarter fell at an annual rate of 11.2%.
The report for the first quarter was a rise of 5.7%, so this
meant that there was a change of 16.9%. The cause of this sharp
drop was attributed to weak domestic demand, made worse by the
recent rise in the sales tax from 3% to 5%.
How is the Japanese media responding to this sharp drop in GDP?
-------------------------------------------------------
Ernest Schaal, Attorney At Law
Mill Valley, California
esc...@nbn.com www.nbn.com/~eschaal
-------------------------------------------------------
Mitch Sako
Ernest Schaal (esc...@nbn.com) wrote:
: In today's New York Times (Page C1), there was an article
: entitled "Japan's Economy Shrinks by 11.2% Annual Rate" written
: by Sheryl WuDunn. It reported that the economic output in the
: second quarter fell at an annual rate of 11.2%.
: The report for the first quarter was a rise of 5.7%, so this
: meant that there was a change of 16.9%. The cause of this sharp
: drop was attributed to weak domestic demand, made worse by the
: recent rise in the sales tax from 3% to 5%.
: How is the Japanese media responding to this sharp drop in GDP?
This is a very interesting article and I see a parallel with
the US economy in a slightly different way.
First, it is clear to almost everyone that since Reagan came
to office, exports have fueled the huge growth in the economic
status of Japan as a global player. Having a captive, protected
domestic market, relatively devoid of competitively priced
imports allowed Japan to use their own domestic
profits to fund the capital required to export aggressively.
This all worked fine, until trade friction crept into the
picture. Well, the bubble bursting had much to do with this
but protection of their domestic markets continues, albeit at a
slightly less insidious rate.
The parallel in the US also began with Reagan when huge amounts
of defense spending increases fueled great growth rates in GNP
(remember, one component of GNP is government spending) making
for an economic situation that some touted as good.
Both parties had to come to an end. In Japan, trade friction,
bad loans on the books and voter anger is coming home to roost.
In the US, the quadrupling of the debt during the Reagan/Bush
years, debt that was incurred financing all of that "growth"
has been dealt with in the 7 years by a republican congress
and of course, Clinton. The S&L crisis, a product of Reagan's
"bubble" years was dealt with and is now just a bad memory.
Japan has yet to deal with their "S&L Crisis" although with
the current dismantling of the Jusen the time to pay the piper
is coming soon.
I've stated that the ministry of finance is in deep doodoo but
the whole country seems to have it's head in the sand.
This negative growth may be a foreshadowing of things to come,
hopefully not.
--
----------------------------------------------------------
Mitch Sako (remove SPAM to reply) ms...@SPAMnetcom.com
Mike Fester
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: This is a very interesting article and I see a parallel with
: the US economy in a slightly different way.
: First, it is clear to almost everyone that since Reagan came
: to office, exports have fueled the huge growth in the economic
: status of Japan as a global player. Having a captive, protected
Japan has been a net exporter for a very LONG time.
: domestic market, relatively devoid of competitively priced
: imports allowed Japan to use their own domestic
: profits to fund the capital required to export aggressively.
No, the "fuel" that fired the engine of the bubble was skyrocketting
real-estate.
: This all worked fine, until trade friction crept into the
: picture.
No, there were dire warnings from many economists, and indeed from Hashimoto
himself, then Minister of Finance, about how Japan's economy was unstable. BTW,
one would often hear Japanese referring to their economy as a "cave" economy --
hard on the outside, empty inside.
: The parallel in the US also began with Reagan when huge amounts
: of defense spending increases fueled great growth rates in GNP
: (remember, one component of GNP is government spending) making
: for an economic situation that some touted as good.
The US debt increased dramatically then. This is not quite the same.
: Both parties had to come to an end. In Japan, trade friction,
Trade friction makes very little difference to Japan, except that it invariably
leads to a market opening in one area or another.
: In the US, the quadrupling of the debt during the Reagan/Bush
: years, debt that was incurred financing all of that "growth"
As a % of the GNP, the debt has been falling since the end of the Reagan era.
: I've stated that the ministry of finance is in deep doodoo but
The ministry of finance was shouting loud warnings in 1989; nobody listened.
Mike
Mitch Sako
Mike Fester (mfe...@iisc.com) wrote:
: Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: : This is a very interesting article and I see a parallel with
: : the US economy in a slightly different way.
: : First, it is clear to almost everyone that since Reagan came
: : to office, exports have fueled the huge growth in the economic
: : status of Japan as a global player. Having a captive, protected
: Japan has been a net exporter for a very LONG time.
But prior to the bubble, their quality was not considered
high and their foreign marketshare was not what it was by the
end of the bubble. They became dominant in electronics, autos
and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
world market for shoes, though....
: : domestic market, relatively devoid of competitively priced
: : imports allowed Japan to use their own domestic
: : profits to fund the capital required to export aggressively.
: No, the "fuel" that fired the engine of the bubble was skyrocketting
: real-estate.
There were contributory factors to the real estate values,
most of it fueled by cheap money, low interest rates, easy
credit funded by the protected marketplace. The major corporate
players had access to virtually unlimited amounts of capital,
all at extremely low rates. This was a market that was certainly
out of whack in terms of the global marketplace.
: : This all worked fine, until trade friction crept into the
: : picture.
: No, there were dire warnings from many economists, and indeed from Hashimoto
: himself, then Minister of Finance, about how Japan's economy was unstable. BTW,
: one would often hear Japanese referring to their economy as a "cave" economy --
: hard on the outside, empty inside.
How many took heed to these dire warnings? A sorry few, I'm afraid.
Why did the ministry of finance allow for this to continue?
: : The parallel in the US also began with Reagan when huge amounts
: : of defense spending increases fueled great growth rates in GNP
: : (remember, one component of GNP is government spending) making
: : for an economic situation that some touted as good.
: The US debt increased dramatically then. This is not quite the same.
Not congruent, parallel. Very similar in pattern, different in
the details. Both times of "prosperity" were false and misleading
and both resulted in disasterous consequences, if you consider a burst bubble
and/or $5 trillion in debt a disaster.
: : Both parties had to come to an end. In Japan, trade friction,
: Trade friction makes very little difference to Japan, except that it invariably
: leads to a market opening in one area or another.
Actually, it makes no difference because the lobbying effort in Washington
led by ex-trade negotiator Carla Hills and her husband has been
extremely effective. It's almost laughable.
: : In the US, the quadrupling of the debt during the Reagan/Bush
: : years, debt that was incurred financing all of that "growth"
: As a % of the GNP, the debt has been falling since the end of the Reagan era.
Thanks to a Clinton for starters and the republican congress a few
years later.
: : I've stated that the ministry of finance is in deep doodoo but
: The ministry of finance was shouting loud warnings in 1989; nobody listened.
That's because they are just going through the motions. Nobody
cares, nobody listens.
Mitch Sako
Lance Cummings (lance.at....@gol.com) wrote:
: On 15 Sep 1997 18:00:04 -0700, in article <msakoEG...@netcom.com>,
: ms...@netcom.com (Mitch Sako) wrote:
: >But prior to the bubble, their quality was not considered
: >high and their foreign marketshare was not what it was by the
: >end of the bubble. They became dominant in electronics, autos
: >and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
: >world market for shoes, though...
: the bubble by up to a decade. The Japanese had largely crushed
: the American domestic TV industry by the early 70s. And Japanese
I agree about TV's I forgot about those, however things like
: imported cars were taking a whack out of the American market
: by the time of the first oil shock -- '73. By the time of the bubble,
But the Japanese cars of the '70s were junk, as were US cars
during that time. It wasn't until the very late '70s that the
quality gap widened to canyon dimensions. I suppose I miswrote
the above statement, I was talking about dominating quality,
the so-called theory-z management (since debunked), and
high productivity (since lost).
: which started around 83 but *really* took off after the Plaza Accords,
: the sudden strength of the Japanese currency, which was fueling
: a luxury import spending binge, was beginning to nip at Japan's
: competitiveness in some of its older manufacturing sectors --
: particulary textiles, where the Japanese found themselves
: suddenly undercut by the Tigers.
The truly predatory export practices went into full swing
during the bubble which helped finance the capital needed
to pull it off. Without virtually unlimited access to free
money, Japan, Inc. would not have become so dominant.
: >: : domestic market, relatively devoid of competitively priced
: >: : imports allowed Japan to use their own domestic
: >: : profits to fund the capital required to export aggressively.
: >: No, the "fuel" that fired the engine of the bubble was skyrocketting
: >: real-estate.
: Well, yes . . . that and the printing press. ;-)
: >How many took heed to these dire warnings? A sorry few, I'm afraid.
: >Why did the ministry of finance allow for this to continue?
: Two reasons: 1) The medicine was going to make the patient worse
: before he got better, so no one wanted to administer it, and 2) The bureaucrats
: were the new Wiz Kids, and infallible -- or so they thought.
That's related to the system in place in Japan (rewards based upon
university attendance rather than merit).
Steve Sundberg
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: Mike Fester (mfe...@iisc.com) wrote:
:
: : The US debt increased dramatically then. This is not quite the same.
:
: Not congruent, parallel. Very similar in pattern, different in
: the details. Both times of "prosperity" were false and misleading
: and both resulted in disasterous consequences, if you consider a burst bubble
: and/or $5 trillion in debt a disaster.
The US 80's prosperity, while misleading to some degree because of the
artificial demands for expensive military gear, did accomplish one thing
that national debt is good for: it forced US industries to upgrade and
recapitalize their equipment in order to meet the standards set by the
Pentagon. What money there was that was sunk into real estate disappeared
in 1987 when the stock market crashed. Therefore, the US 'bubble' has
already burst-- with little consequence to the national economy as a
whole.
--
Be happy while you're living... | dee...@mm.com
...because you're a long time dead. | 7361...@compuserve.com
-- Scottish proverb | http://www.mm.com/user/deejay/
Mike Fester
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: Mike Fester (mfe...@iisc.com) wrote:
: But prior to the bubble, their quality was not considered
: high and their foreign marketshare was not what it was by the
: end of the bubble. They became dominant in electronics, autos
: and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
: world market for shoes, though....
Actually, this isn't true. They rapidly dominated the consumer electronics
market by the late 60s, with the oil-crisis of the 70s, they had a reputation
for making quality, low-cost items (notably in automobiles, but in other
areas as well.) (As an aside, W Germany was poised to make a killing in the US
with *ITS* small cars but ran into debilitating internal pressure when it
tried to re-locate factories from Germany to Mexico and Brazil. The German
unions put a stop to it.)
: : : domestic market, relatively devoid of competitively priced
: : : imports allowed Japan to use their own domestic
: : : profits to fund the capital required to export aggressively.
:
: : No, the "fuel" that fired the engine of the bubble was skyrocketting
: : real-estate.
: There were contributory factors to the real estate values,
: most of it fueled by cheap money, low interest rates, easy
: credit funded by the protected marketplace. The major corporate
The "protected marketplace" was independent of the financing.
: all at extremely low rates. This was a market that was certainly
: out of whack in terms of the global marketplace.
Yep.
: : No, there were dire warnings from many economists, and indeed from Hashimoto
: : himself, then Minister of Finance, about how Japan's economy was unstable. BTW,
: : one would often hear Japanese referring to their economy as a "cave" economy --
: : hard on the outside, empty inside.
:
: How many took heed to these dire warnings? A sorry few, I'm afraid.
: Why did the ministry of finance allow for this to continue?
As noted below, the Minister for at least part of that time was Hashimoto. I'm
afraid you overestimate the influence of the Minister (a politician) on the
Ministry (a bureaucracy.)
: : : The parallel in the US also began with Reagan when huge amounts
: : : of defense spending increases fueled great growth rates in GNP
: : : (remember, one component of GNP is government spending) making
: : : for an economic situation that some touted as good.
: : The US debt increased dramatically then. This is not quite the same.
: Not congruent, parallel. Very similar in pattern, different in
: the details. Both times of "prosperity" were false and misleading
: and both resulted in disasterous consequences, if you consider a burst bubble
: and/or $5 trillion in debt a disaster.
Not really for the debt. At the current rates of growth and spending in the US,
the debt will have evaporated (at least in terms of government spending) in
about 5-6 years.
: : Trade friction makes very little difference to Japan, except that it invariably
: : leads to a market opening in one area or another.
:
: Actually, it makes no difference because the lobbying effort in Washington
: led by ex-trade negotiator Carla Hills and her husband has been
: extremely effective. It's almost laughable.
And yet, the rice market *IS* open, as is the beef market, seafood, autos,
etc.
: : : In the US, the quadrupling of the debt during the Reagan/Bush
: : : years, debt that was incurred financing all of that "growth"
: : As a % of the GNP, the debt has been falling since the end of the Reagan era.
: Thanks to a Clinton for starters and the republican congress a few
: years later.
No, this is something that's been known for quite awhile; government spending
was increasing less rapidly than economic growth. At that rate, revenues WILL
outstrip outlays. This began well before Clinton got to office.
: : : I've stated that the ministry of finance is in deep doodoo but
: : The ministry of finance was shouting loud warnings in 1989; nobody listened.
: That's because they are just going through the motions. Nobody
: cares, nobody listens.
Some companies DID care and listen, and came out of the bubble relatively
well.
Mike
Mike Fester
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: Lance Cummings (lance.at....@gol.com) wrote:
: : Sorry, Mitch, but the phenomena you describe above predate
: : the bubble by up to a decade. The Japanese had largely crushed
: : the American domestic TV industry by the early 70s. And Japanese
:
: I agree about TV's I forgot about those, however things like
:
: : imported cars were taking a whack out of the American market
: : by the time of the first oil shock -- '73. By the time of the bubble,
:
: But the Japanese cars of the '70s were junk, as were US cars
Nope. The cars were reliable and cheap and THAT'S why they were able to
make huge inroads in the US (and European) markets. Don't forget that the
Japanese wer selling in Europe then, too.
: quality gap widened to canyon dimensions. I suppose I miswrote
: the above statement, I was talking about dominating quality,
: the so-called theory-z management (since debunked), and
: high productivity (since lost).
You are mistaking the publicity for the phenomenon.
: The truly predatory export practices went into full swing
: during the bubble which helped finance the capital needed
No, the trade practices you refer to, which Drucker dubbed "adversarial
trade" were in place well before any of this.
: to pull it off. Without virtually unlimited access to free
: money, Japan, Inc. would not have become so dominant.
At it's HEIGHT, Japan was never close to being the SECOND biggest exporting
nation in the world.
: : Two reasons: 1) The medicine was going to make the patient worse
: : before he got better, so no one wanted to administer it, and 2) The bureaucrats
: : were the new Wiz Kids, and infallible -- or so they thought.
:
: That's related to the system in place in Japan (rewards based upon
: university attendance rather than merit).
Sounds like Kennedy's "Best and Brightest", yes? AKA, prelude to Vietnam...
Mike
Steve Sundberg
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
:
: But the Japanese cars of the '70s were junk, as were US cars
No, they weren't. Not in 1973, when US automakers suddenly found
their market share shrinking substantially because Americans were buying
more and more Japanese cars. Volkswagen didn't profit nearly as much from
the new fuel realities as did the Japanese.
When the first Japanese cars were imported into the US, they had the
reputation of being poorly made. That reputation carried on through the
60's, and even though they were priced as competitively as Volkswagen,
sales certainly did not match those of the German importer. But the
Japanese automakers got their act together just in time for the first 'oil
shokku'. The only Japanese automaker who did not profit was Mazda... and
then it was because the Wankel (rotary) engine used-- though it had an
outstanding reputation for durability-- could not deliver the same gas
mileage as a Honda or Toyota four-popper.
Steve Sundberg
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: Mike Fester (mfe...@iisc.com) wrote:
: : Japan has been a net exporter for a very LONG time.
:
: But prior to the bubble, their quality was not considered
: high and their foreign marketshare was not what it was by the
: end of the bubble.
Ha! Japan became a net exporter in the 70's. By then, there was no
question as to the quality of Japanese products like Nikon, Sony, Honda
and others. Quality is why* Japan became a net exporter. People don't
buy lots of junky stuff from overseas at the expense of their own
domestic product.
: They became dominant in electronics, autos
: and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
: world market for shoes, though....
Let me know when a shoe costs as much as car. Then we'd all* have
something to worry about. ;)
Mitch Sako
Steve Sundberg (dee...@mm.com) wrote:
: Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: : But the Japanese cars of the '70s were junk, as were US cars
: : during that time.
: No, they weren't. Not in 1973, when US automakers suddenly found
: their market share shrinking substantially because Americans were buying
: more and more Japanese cars. Volkswagen didn't profit nearly as much from
: the new fuel realities as did the Japanese.
When the first embargo hit, Japanese cars were junk. They had
problems with durability, especially in the drivetrains and in
their crash damage performance.
: When the first Japanese cars were imported into the US, they had the
: reputation of being poorly made. That reputation carried on through the
: 60's, and even though they were priced as competitively as Volkswagen,
: sales certainly did not match those of the German importer. But the
: Japanese automakers got their act together just in time for the first 'oil
: shokku'. The only Japanese automaker who did not profit was Mazda... and
: then it was because the Wankel (rotary) engine used-- though it had an
: outstanding reputation for durability-- could not deliver the same gas
: mileage as a Honda or Toyota four-popper.
I'm having a hard time accepting your assessment that those cars
were of high quality. I owned two of them and they both sucked.
Vastly underpowered, inferior sheetmetal, lousy paint, drivetrains
that wore out prematurely, etc.
Mitch Sako
: : and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
: : world market for shoes, though....
: Let me know when a shoe costs as much as car. Then we'd all* have
: something to worry about. ;)
Actually, the average Japanese buys far more shoes than cars in
their lifetime. I brought up shoes because, in my opinion,
represents one the of the most insidious demonstrationss of how
a protected market results in lousy products and screwed
consumers.
Japanese shoes really suck. The quality is just not there.
And why should it be? The shoe manufactures have absolutely
nothing to worry about (I'm talking about non-sneakers here)
because it's protected, end of story.
Try bringing in a container of high-quality American-made
dress shoes (Cole-Haan, Allen-Edmonds, Alden, et. al.)
to Japan and see how much success you have. It will never
happen, at least not with this crew.
Mitch Sako
: : But prior to the bubble, their quality was not considered
: : high and their foreign marketshare was not what it was by the
: : and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
: : world market for shoes, though....
: market by the late 60s, with the oil-crisis of the 70s, they had a reputation
: for making quality, low-cost items (notably in automobiles, but in other
: areas as well.) (As an aside, W Germany was poised to make a killing in the US
I think it's a matter of opinion as to the quality of autos during the
'70s. I owned a few of them and they were not durable, nor was the
engineering in them anything to write home about. The sheetmetal
was thin and inferior and their paint sucked. The durability of their
drivelines was inferior to the heavy iron that Detroit was putting
out at the time. It wasn't until the early '80s that they got their
proverbial act together and really put the screws to the Europeans.
: with *ITS* small cars but ran into debilitating internal pressure when it
: tried to re-locate factories from Germany to Mexico and Brazil. The German
: unions put a stop to it.)
VW took over a factory in Pennsylvania, I drive an '84 GTI today that
was made in that factory.
: : : No, the "fuel" that fired the engine of the bubble was skyrocketting
: : : real-estate.
: : There were contributory factors to the real estate values,
: : most of it fueled by cheap money, low interest rates, easy
: : credit funded by the protected marketplace. The major corporate
: The "protected marketplace" was independent of the financing.
It was all part of the same protectionist policy, favoring
industry (MITI) and screwing the consumer. Even today, try to
buy a decent pair of shoes in Japan. I can go to the local
Nordstrom and pick up a fine pair of Allen-Edmonds wingtips for
about $300, made in USA. Great shoes, highest quality (with the
exception of some of the fine English bootmakers, perhaps)
and well over Y70000 in Tokyo. Shoes are protected, there is
no movement on this. Protectionism, to the extreme helps
nobody, protectionism as practiced in most sectors in Japan
aids Japan, Inc., providing them access to virtually unlimited
sources of free capital (i.e. financing), compliments of the Japanese
consumer who is getting screwed and tattooed.
: : all at extremely low rates. This was a market that was certainly
: : out of whack in terms of the global marketplace.
: Yep.
: : How many took heed to these dire warnings? A sorry few, I'm afraid.
: : Why did the ministry of finance allow for this to continue?
: As noted below, the Minister for at least part of that time was Hashimoto. I'm
: afraid you overestimate the influence of the Minister (a politician) on the
: Ministry (a bureaucracy.)
Not really. I know the power of politicians. All you have to do is look
at the next generation Shinkansen tracks out in Yamanashi-prefecture
which just happens be the home prefecture of one Mr. Kanemaru, dec.
: : : : The parallel in the US also began with Reagan when huge amounts
: : : : of defense spending increases fueled great growth rates in GNP
: : : : (remember, one component of GNP is government spending) making
: : : : for an economic situation that some touted as good.
: : : The US debt increased dramatically then. This is not quite the same.
: : Not congruent, parallel. Very similar in pattern, different in
: : the details. Both times of "prosperity" were false and misleading
: : and both resulted in disasterous consequences, if you consider a burst bubble
: : and/or $5 trillion in debt a disaster.
: Not really for the debt. At the current rates of growth and spending in the US,
: the debt will have evaporated (at least in terms of government spending) in
: about 5-6 years.
I think that is only valid if Alan Greenspan remains in his current
position. Japan needs someone like him to tell it like it is and to
follow through, preferably in the finance ministry.
: : : Trade friction makes very little difference to Japan, except that it invariably
: : : leads to a market opening in one area or another.
: :
: : Actually, it makes no difference because the lobbying effort in Washington
: : led by ex-trade negotiator Carla Hills and her husband has been
: : extremely effective. It's almost laughable.
: And yet, the rice market *IS* open, as is the beef market, seafood, autos,
: etc.
From what I heard, the rice market is not open in the way that we
know an open market. The price of rice is still fixed by the government.
I believe that rice farmers are now allowed to sell their rice (or some of
it) on the open market, though.
: : : : In the US, the quadrupling of the debt during the Reagan/Bush
: : : : years, debt that was incurred financing all of that "growth"
: : : As a % of the GNP, the debt has been falling since the end of the Reagan era.
: : Thanks to a Clinton for starters and the republican congress a few
: : years later.
: No, this is something that's been known for quite awhile; government spending
: was increasing less rapidly than economic growth. At that rate, revenues WILL
: outstrip outlays. This began well before Clinton got to office.
I'm not sure what you mean. The end of the cold war was responsible for some
of the sentiment, but had it not been for Clinton, the meager cuts that he
managed to push through would have never happened. Economic growth
during Bush's term was non-existent and the reason for his defeat.
Mike Fester
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:: : : They became dominant in electronics, autos
: : : and manufactured goods. Hardly a dominant threat to the
: : : world market for shoes, though....
: : something to worry about. ;)
:
: Actually, the average Japanese buys far more shoes than cars in
: their lifetime. I brought up shoes because, in my opinion,
I do too. I still spend more on one car than on all the shoes I'll ever
buy.
: Try bringing in a container of high-quality American-made
: dress shoes (Cole-Haan, Allen-Edmonds, Alden, et. al.)
: to Japan and see how much success you have. It will never
: happen, at least not with this crew.
Actually, Florsheim seems to do well there.
Mike
Yasuhisa Yamamoto
Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: Japanese shoes really suck. The quality is just not there.
: And why should it be? The shoe manufactures have absolutely
: nothing to worry about (I'm talking about non-sneakers here)
: because it's protected, end of story.
I actually don't know any Japanese up-market shoe makers which
would have benefited from the protection you observe. In my
opinion, quality shoes (over Y20,000 price range) are dominated
by foreign shoe makers. Meanwhile, down-market shoe makers in
Japan are about to go as imports from China, Korea, Taiwan, and
Indonesia have been increasing, and many small shoe makers were
destroyed by the Kobe earthquake.
--
Yasuhisa Yamamoto <ec...@csv.warwick.ac.uk>
Mitch Sako
Yasuhisa Yamamoto (ec...@csv.warwick.ac.uk) wrote:
I did not say there were any upscale shoe makers in Japan.
I said that the shoe makers in Japan have nothing to worry about
because of the protection. The largest benefactor as far
as I can see is Regal, but there are others. Regal faces
no foreign competition because of the protection, there
are no imports in the medium price range because the tariffs would
put the prices into the upper stratosphere.
Shoes are something that are near and dear to my heart because
I cannot deal with uncomfortable shoes, therefore, I usually
spare no expense when it comes to the comfort of my feet.
The shoes I looked at in Japan are junk. There is a reason
for that. That was my point.
Imports from China, Korea and Taiwan are not in the dress shoe
market as far as I can see, at least not competitively.
Mitch Sako
: : their lifetime. I brought up shoes because, in my opinion,
: I do too. I still spend more on one car than on all the shoes I'll ever
: buy.
But the average Japanese does not own a car (as an individual).
I don't have the figures but someone told me that less than half
of those of driving age do not own a car, moreso, of those who do have
a license, a relatively small percentage of those with licenses
own their own car, many are paper drivers.
: : Try bringing in a container of high-quality American-made
: : dress shoes (Cole-Haan, Allen-Edmonds, Alden, et. al.)
: : to Japan and see how much success you have. It will never
: : happen, at least not with this crew.
: Actually, Florsheim seems to do well there.
If I'm not mistaken, and I've only seen one case of this, Florsheim
(along with Polo, Aquascutem, Burburry, Levis, et. al) are licensed
is a licensed brand and made in Japan domestically. Imported
Aquascutem is available, for instance, but at more than double the price.
I've not checked Florsheim but I did see a pair of licensed ones
(probably made by Regal or another major shoe company) in tokyo about
five years ago.
There is a real simple way to check on how protected something is.
Find the equivalent item in the US and compare the price for the import
into Japan. Go check out the price of cameras, film, video,
electronics, etc. that are made in Japan. Prices are about the same.
Then, go check out something like shoes.
Mike Fester
: : areas as well.) (As an aside, W Germany was poised to make a killing in the US
:
: I think it's a matter of opinion as to the quality of autos during the
: '70s. I owned a few of them and they were not durable, nor was the
Then yours is the minority; the Japanese GOT their reputation for quality
during the early 70s oil crisis.
: : with *ITS* small cars but ran into debilitating internal pressure when it
: : tried to re-locate factories from Germany to Mexico and Brazil. The German
: : unions put a stop to it.)
:
: VW took over a factory in Pennsylvania, I drive an '84 GTI today that
: was made in that factory.
Possibly. However, the reference was to the VW bug which at one time was
THE small car in the US. Peter Drucker has more info on this, if you're
curious.
: : The "protected marketplace" was independent of the financing.
:
: It was all part of the same protectionist policy, favoring
: industry (MITI) and screwing the consumer. Even today, try to
MITI does NOT dictate to the Ministry of Finance. There is no such "policy"
in place. Indeed, to read your own words, the financing has dried up, but
the protectionism is still in place -- therefore, it could NOT be part of the
same policy.
: : : How many took heed to these dire warnings? A sorry few, I'm afraid.
: : : Why did the ministry of finance allow for this to continue?
: : As noted below, the Minister for at least part of that time was Hashimoto. I'm
: : afraid you overestimate the influence of the Minister (a politician) on the
: : Ministry (a bureaucracy.)
:
: Not really. I know the power of politicians. All you have to do is look
Uh, no, I don't think you do. The politicoes come-and-go in a given Ministry,
yet the policies remain essentially the same.
: : Not really for the debt. At the current rates of growth and spending in the US,
: : the debt will have evaporated (at least in terms of government spending) in
: : about 5-6 years.
:
: I think that is only valid if Alan Greenspan remains in his current
No, there is nothing in there about Greenspan. Simply, if revenues outstrip
expenses, debt eventually evaporates.
: : : Actually, it makes no difference because the lobbying effort in Washington
: : : led by ex-trade negotiator Carla Hills and her husband has been
: : : extremely effective. It's almost laughable.
: : And yet, the rice market *IS* open, as is the beef market, seafood, autos,
: : etc.
:
: From what I heard, the rice market is not open in the way that we
Nor was it intended to be, yet Japan is now, quietly, importing about 15-20%
of its rice, after setting a "goal" of 5%.
: know an open market. The price of rice is still fixed by the government.
: I believe that rice farmers are now allowed to sell their rice (or some of
: it) on the open market, though.
They always were, though only under certain restrictions.
: : No, this is something that's been known for quite awhile; government spending
: : was increasing less rapidly than economic growth. At that rate, revenues WILL
: : outstrip outlays. This began well before Clinton got to office.
:
: I'm not sure what you mean. The end of the cold war was responsible for some
: of the sentiment, but had it not been for Clinton, the meager cuts that he
"cuts"? Some. However, the budget is LARGER than ever, not smaller. Again,
see the "revenues vs expenses" above.
: managed to push through would have never happened. Economic growth
: during Bush's term was non-existent and the reason for his defeat.
No, the reason was that the downturn in the economy coincided with election
time.
Mike
David Maddox
In article <341ee...@rain.mm.com>,
dee...@mm.com (Steve Sundberg) writes:
> Let me know when a shoe costs as much as car. Then we'd all* have
> something to worry about. ;)
Priced nikes lately? ;^)
--
I8R,
Dave "Wile E."
'76 FXE
'70 FLH
HSB #33 1/3
I love cats...they taste just like chicken
Mike Fester
: : : Actually, the average Japanese buys far more shoes than cars in
: : : their lifetime. I brought up shoes because, in my opinion,
: : I do too. I still spend more on one car than on all the shoes I'll ever
: : buy.
:
: But the average Japanese does not own a car (as an individual).
: I don't have the figures but someone told me that less than half
: of those of driving age do not own a car, moreso, of those who do have
: a license, a relatively small percentage of those with licenses
: own their own car, many are paper drivers.
And the number of cars, of car drivers, and of two-car families in Japan
is increasing. BTW, as of 1990, over half the Japanese FAMILIES did, indeed,
have a car.
: : : to Japan and see how much success you have. It will never
: : : happen, at least not with this crew.
: : Actually, Florsheim seems to do well there.
:
: If I'm not mistaken, and I've only seen one case of this, Florsheim
: (along with Polo, Aquascutem, Burburry, Levis, et. al) are licensed
: is a licensed brand and made in Japan domestically. Imported
No idea if they're licensed or not but the quality seemed about the same, and
the price higher-to-slightly higer, depending on exchange rate.
: There is a real simple way to check on how protected something is.
: Find the equivalent item in the US and compare the price for the import
: into Japan. Go check out the price of cameras, film, video,
: electronics, etc. that are made in Japan. Prices are about the same.
: Then, go check out something like shoes.
Film's more expensive over there, at least from my experience on the last
trip. Ditto cameras, etc. Shoes as well. Cheap shoes, however, were
cheaper there.
Mike
Mitch Sako
Mike Fester (mfe...@iisc.com) wrote:
: Mitch Sako (ms...@netcom.com) wrote:
: : But the average Japanese does not own a car (as an individual).
: : I don't have the figures but someone told me that less than half
: : of those of driving age do not own a car, moreso, of those who do have
: : a license, a relatively small percentage of those with licenses
: : own their own car, many are paper drivers.
: And the number of cars, of car drivers, and of two-car families in Japan
: is increasing. BTW, as of 1990, over half the Japanese FAMILIES did, indeed,
: have a car.
I wasn't talking about families, I was talking about adults of
driving age. It's very low, compared to the US. That was my point.
Also, a "family" in Japan frequently refers to a household, with
multiple generations living there as opposed to the US where it is
typically only immediate family members.
: : : : to Japan and see how much success you have. It will never
: : : : happen, at least not with this crew.
: : : Actually, Florsheim seems to do well there.
: : If I'm not mistaken, and I've only seen one case of this, Florsheim
: : (along with Polo, Aquascutem, Burburry, Levis, et. al) are licensed
: : is a licensed brand and made in Japan domestically. Imported
: No idea if they're licensed or not but the quality seemed about the same, and
: the price higher-to-slightly higer, depending on exchange rate.
Licensed goods are basically protected domestic produced goods.
Inferior in quality in almost all cases compared to the real
thing. Forbes Magazine usually does one or two stories on this
(licensing of name brands in Japan with respect to trade friction, etc.)
and how it helps the domestic producers in Japan while slamming the door
on imports. The worst part is the consumer pays more for less.
: : There is a real simple way to check on how protected something is.
: : Find the equivalent item in the US and compare the price for the import
: : into Japan. Go check out the price of cameras, film, video,
: : electronics, etc. that are made in Japan. Prices are about the same.
: : Then, go check out something like shoes.
: Film's more expensive over there, at least from my experience on the last
: trip. Ditto cameras, etc. Shoes as well. Cheap shoes, however, were
: cheaper there.
Film at Price-Costco (Fuji and Kodak) was slightly higher in the US.
Those are for 5-packs. There is absolutely no comparison if you go to
the local drugstore, variety store, or grocery store and pickup one role
in the US, it's about 1.5-2x more in the US than it is at the
equivalent shop in Japan. I was just in Long's Drugs last week,
a roll of ASA200x24 Kodak was $5.50+tax, that's over double of what you
pay at the corner photoshop (not Yodobashi Camera) in Tokyo.
If you are considering APS (Advanced Photo System) film, there is
absolutely no contest, it's at least 50% higher here in the US.
Cameras, non-graymarket, are the same o less in Japan. I spent
3 hours at Yodobashi Camera earlier this year studying the
prices, many of the cameras had different names but were the
same model (IXY is ELPH in the US, etc.) The prices at Yodobashi
were lower or the same for every camera I checked. I did not
check lens prices, though. If you are talking digital cameras,
the prices were significantly cheaper in Japan. Basically,
they used to dump cameras but don't do it so much anymore.
Mike Fester
: : And the number of cars, of car drivers, and of two-car families in Japan
: : is increasing. BTW, as of 1990, over half the Japanese FAMILIES did, indeed,
: : have a car.
:
: I wasn't talking about families, I was talking about adults of
: driving age. It's very low, compared to the US. That was my point.
And yet about the same as Europe overall, yet this doesn't seem to get much
publicity.
: Also, a "family" in Japan frequently refers to a household, with
: multiple generations living there as opposed to the US where it is
: typically only immediate family members.
Noted that "frequently" and "typically" are different words. Last I saw
(1992) the "typical" Japanese household was nuclear.
: : : (along with Polo, Aquascutem, Burburry, Levis, et. al) are licensed
: : : is a licensed brand and made in Japan domestically. Imported
: : No idea if they're licensed or not but the quality seemed about the same, and
: : the price higher-to-slightly higer, depending on exchange rate.
:
: Licensed goods are basically protected domestic produced goods.
Hunh?
So, McDonald's is a "protected domestic produced" etc?
: Inferior in quality in almost all cases compared to the real
: thing. Forbes Magazine usually does one or two stories on this
Sorry, but I flat out don't believe you.
: : Film's more expensive over there, at least from my experience on the last
: : trip. Ditto cameras, etc. Shoes as well. Cheap shoes, however, were
: : cheaper there.
: Film at Price-Costco (Fuji and Kodak) was slightly higher in the US.
: Those are for 5-packs. There is absolutely no comparison if you go to
: the local drugstore, variety store, or grocery store and pickup one role
: in the US, it's about 1.5-2x more in the US than it is at the
: equivalent shop in Japan. I was just in Long's Drugs last week,
Hmm, I bought a roll of Fuji 36 ASA 100 for Y880 in Kochi last month. Same
roll is less than $5 here in the US.
: Cameras, non-graymarket, are the same o less in Japan. I spent
: 3 hours at Yodobashi Camera earlier this year studying the
: prices, many of the cameras had different names but were the
: same model (IXY is ELPH in the US, etc.) The prices at Yodobashi
: were lower or the same for every camera I checked. I did not
: check lens prices, though. If you are talking digital cameras,
Someone should tell these silly Japanese tourists here in the US to stop
frequenting the downtown SF electronic shops for cheaper goods.
Mike
Mitch Sako
: : : No idea if they're licensed or not but the quality seemed about the same, and
: : : the price higher-to-slightly higer, depending on exchange rate.
: : Licensed goods are basically protected domestic produced goods.
: Hunh?
It's a way to protect your domestic factories for manufactured
goods from superior imports. It's only viable when a domestic
product is inferior in the marketplace. You don't see them
licensing things like Chevy Corvettes because they consider their
cars better. It's only on items in the marketplace where they
fail to compete.
: So, McDonald's is a "protected domestic produced" etc?
Actually, McDonalds's, if I'm not mistaken is a partnership
which doesn't produce anything. It's a service industry,
I believe they buy the beef from Australia, get their buns from
a local baker, the highest profit margin item, soft drink syrup
is produced under license domestically. I think in terms of
manufacturing, they don't produce anything, they just prepare food.
: : Inferior in quality in almost all cases compared to the real
: : thing. Forbes Magazine usually does one or two stories on this
: Sorry, but I flat out don't believe you.
What don't you believe? Are you doubting the motives behind
licensing vs. importing? All you have to do is go to any
Polo store, Burburry's, Aquascutem and watch them snap up
the real thing. Imports are available in Japan, however they
have huge tariffs and are marked up so much that it makes them
impractical. I was in Takashimaya last year, looked at an
Aquascutem raincoat (Bogart model to be exact) which I happen to
own, the price astounded me, only Y70000. I told my friend
that it's the same price as I paid for the model produced in the UK.
He told me to look at it carefully, it was made in Japan under license.
He then took me to another floor where they had the import model, the
exact same model and it was Y190000, almost three times as much, BUT,
it was produced in the UK. He told me the licened one was
produced by Sanyo or one of the other popular design houses
and were of inferior quality.
This example is not unique. The best example I can see is
Levis jeans which you see everywhere. Depending on current
fashion trends, you see Japanese tourists snapping up Levis in the US
because they know that the price is prohibitive in Japan for the imports.
I'm sorry, but I cannot figure out what you don't believe.
: : : Film's more expensive over there, at least from my experience on the last
: : : trip. Ditto cameras, etc. Shoes as well. Cheap shoes, however, were
: : : cheaper there.
: : Film at Price-Costco (Fuji and Kodak) was slightly higher in the US.
: : Those are for 5-packs. There is absolutely no comparison if you go to
: : the local drugstore, variety store, or grocery store and pickup one role
: : in the US, it's about 1.5-2x more in the US than it is at the
: : equivalent shop in Japan. I was just in Long's Drugs last week,
: Hmm, I bought a roll of Fuji 36 ASA 100 for Y880 in Kochi last month. Same
: roll is less than $5 here in the US.
Y880 sounds awfully high. I saw 3-packs of 24's for under Y1000
in Kannai, Shinjuku at small shops, slightly cheaper at the big
chains. APS was 5 rolls of 25 for Y1050.
: : Cameras, non-graymarket, are the same o less in Japan. I spent
: : 3 hours at Yodobashi Camera earlier this year studying the
: : prices, many of the cameras had different names but were the
: : same model (IXY is ELPH in the US, etc.) The prices at Yodobashi
: : were lower or the same for every camera I checked. I did not
: : check lens prices, though. If you are talking digital cameras,
: Someone should tell these silly Japanese tourists here in the US to stop
: frequenting the downtown SF electronic shops for cheaper goods.
Actually, certain things are cheaper here, lenses, for instance, but
most of them are not produced in Japan. A few years ago, when they
were dumping cameras, San Jose Camera was one of their favorite
stops, but it's not anymore because cameras in Japan have come down
substantially in recent years.
Another big one that has gotten cheaper in Japan recently (past 5
years) is liquor, especially the scotches and bourbons that used
to be outrageously priced before. It's not worth it to pickup a
bottle of scotch and take it to Japan as omiyage anymore. The
prices have come down so much recently that it's a waste to carry
something so heavy.
Music CDs are also almost reasonable in Japan now. The little
temporary shops that setup in stations selling CDs now sell them
at prices competitve with prices in the US.
Steve Sundberg
David Maddox (mad...@cig.nml.mot.com) wrote:
:
: In article <341ee...@rain.mm.com>,
: dee...@mm.com (Steve Sundberg) writes:
: > Let me know when a shoe costs as much as car. Then we'd all* have
: > something to worry about. ;)
:
: Priced nikes lately? ;^)
Are there any shoes off-the-shelf that require a five-year loan to buy? ;)
I know I could go deeply into debt for a pair of 'gators but I'd rather
buy a boat.
Mitch Sako
Steve Sundberg (dee...@mm.com) wrote:
: David Maddox (mad...@cig.nml.mot.com) wrote:
: : In article <341ee...@rain.mm.com>,
: : dee...@mm.com (Steve Sundberg) writes:
: : > Let me know when a shoe costs as much as car. Then we'd all* have
: : > something to worry about. ;)
: : Priced nikes lately? ;^)
: Are there any shoes off-the-shelf that require a five-year loan to buy? ;)
: I know I could go deeply into debt for a pair of 'gators but I'd rather
: buy a boat.
It was at one of the high-end department stores where I saw
a pair of 'gator Ferragamo's for something like Y300000, perhaps
a small 5-year loan to buy those.
Steve Sundberg
: : I know I could go deeply into debt for a pair of 'gators but I'd rather
: : buy a boat.
:
: It was at one of the high-end department stores where I saw
: a pair of 'gator Ferragamo's for something like Y300000, perhaps
: a small 5-year loan to buy those.
I wouldn't call those off-the-shelf... not the usual department store
variety. Besides, if someone could afford a $3000 pair of shoes, they
won't need five years to pay off a loan-- assuming that any bank would be
same enough to give them the money. ;)
Eric Hildum
Steve Sundberg wrote:
>
> shokku'. The only Japanese automaker who did not profit was Mazda... and
> then it was because the Wankel (rotary) engine used-- though it had an
> outstanding reputation for durability-- could not deliver the same gas
> mileage as a Honda or Toyota four-popper.
Mazda had that problem because of false statistics published by the US
Government on fuel economy. In fact, the Wankel engine is as good as or
better than comparable engines. The trick the US used was to compare the
Wankel against engines of much lower horsepower, thus the Wankel
appeared to have much worse fuel economy. A clever and effective trick
to keep out a superior engine technology.
Mike Fester
Eric Hildum (Eric....@Japan.NCR.COM) wrote:
"to keep out a superior engine technology"?
Hmmmmm. Wankels have been around since before WWI, where they were used in
the first Fokkers (the monoplane D-I). They DO put out more HP for their
displacement, but that's not why they failed, at least so far as the
people I talked to were concerned. They failed because they had a tendency
to break seals when driven on mostly long-range trips, as opposed to
stop-and-go traffic. So, while they targetted the "fleet sales" market,
that seemed to be exactly the market they were LEAST suited to. The bad
rep they got there precluded their acceptence in the household market, where
they were BEST suited.
The technology is quite old, and there was no way the US was keeping it out
of the country.
Mike
Rick Cook
Steve Sundberg wrote:
>: But the Japanese cars of the '70s were junk, as were US cars
>: during that time.
>
>No, they weren't. Not in 1973, when US automakers suddenly found
>their market share shrinking substantially because Americans were buying
>more and more Japanese cars. Volkswagen didn't profit nearly as much from
>the new fuel realities as did the Japanese.
>
had a 1970 Toyota when we met which was quite a good car. Since then we've
had '73, '75, and 81 Toyotas. All good cars.
Now if you want to go back to the 1960s, the picture changes. I still
remember the first Saburu I ever saw -- complete with 350cc two-stroke
engine.
The Japanese started their penetration into the consumer electronics
industry in the 1950s with transistor radios. They picked up steam through
the 1960s and 1970s and by 1975 or so they essentially owned the market.
Earlier they had done the same thing with steel, shipbuilding, cameras,
etc.
The bubble economy in Japan came much later.
--RC
Rick Cook
Mitch Sako wrote:
>Actually, the average Japanese buys far more shoes than cars in
>their lifetime. I brought up shoes because, in my opinion,
>a protected market results in lousy products and screwed
>consumers.
Screwed consumers, yes. Lousy products, no. In my experience Japanese
products, from fruits to clothes, are almost always high quality. They are
also outrageously expensive by US standards.
I am astonished that Japanese consumers have put up with it for so long.
--RC
Rick Cook
Mitch Sako wrote:
>I'm having a hard time accepting your assessment that those cars
>were of high quality. I owned two of them and they both sucked.
>Vastly underpowered, inferior sheetmetal, lousy paint, drivetrains
>that wore out prematurely, etc.
>
In 1965, perhaps yes (definitely in the case of Saburu), but not by 1970.
For an indepth look at the automobile situation, see "The Reckoning" by
William Halberstam (sp?).
--RC
Mitch Sako
Rick Cook (rc...@BIX.com) wrote:
: Mitch Sako wrote:
: >Actually, the average Japanese buys far more shoes than cars in
: >their lifetime. I brought up shoes because, in my opinion,
: >represents one the of the most insidious demonstrationss of how
: >a protected market results in lousy products and screwed
: >consumers.
: Screwed consumers, yes. Lousy products, no. In my experience Japanese
: products, from fruits to clothes, are almost always high quality. They are
: also outrageously expensive by US standards.
It's been my experience in the following areas (not very interesting
or glamorous, necessarily) that the Japanese consumer is locked up
with inferior products:
Cleaners, including laundry soap, bath soap, spray cleaners
Shoes, Japanese shoes are far inferior, I've discussed
this one enough
Major appliances, while technologically wiz-bang, the price-performance
sucks compared to Europe and the Americas
Clothes, I have to vehemently disagree with you on Japanese made
clothes (when comparing similar price ranges)
You cannot compare the "outrageously expensive" Japanese goods
with average goods from Europe or the US if you are going to
talk about quality or utility. A better measure would be price
as a percentage of income, not absolute price.
: I am astonished that Japanese consumers have put up with it for so long.
I'm not. The average psyche of a typical graduate of Todai
or Kyodai is not really entrepeneurial in nature as it might
be for a Stanford or Harvard grad. Graduates of the top universities
are extremely conservative and risk-averse (the spoils of entering
the best universities) in Japan and are not going to go out and
work for some risky startup with a 5% chance of longterm
survival.
Point is, the entrepeneurial spirit of Silicon Valley where failure
is not frowned upon is not present in Japan. Without this, you don't
have a vast population of business people willing to start businesses
that have some sort of innovative angle (the best examples I can think
of are Home Depot, Price-Costco, Federal Express and Dell. All four
of these companies are successful because they provided a different
channel of access to products, a lower-cost channel which
ultimately benefits the consumer but puts the smaller competitors
out of business. This sort of predatory way of doing business is
not widely acceptable in Japan. Just look at how much trouble
Toys-R-Us had gaining a foothold in Japan but just look at how
wildly successful they have been.
Steve Sundberg
Eric Hildum (Eric....@Japan.NCR.COM) wrote:
:
: Government on fuel economy. In fact, the Wankel engine is as good as or
: better than comparable engines.
I thought the US government figured mileage like the rest of us do-- by
seeing how far one can go on a full tank of gas and then dividing the
miles traveled by the number of gallons consumed. ;)
If the government figures were so wrong, quite a few Mazda owners would
have set them straight. They would, after all, know just how much
gasoline would be used-- but I don't recall anyone but Mazda saying the
government figures were wrong.
: The trick the US used was to compare the
: Wankel against engines of much lower horsepower, thus the Wankel
: appeared to have much worse fuel economy. A clever and effective trick
: to keep out a superior engine technology.
And German technology at that! I wonder why the Germans don't use
Wankels in their Beemers and Mercs? Could it be that the engine-- though
mechanically superior-- is not very fuel efficient after all?
Steve Sundberg
Rick Cook (rc...@BIX.com) wrote:
:
: In my experience Japanese
: products, from fruits to clothes, are almost always high quality. They are
: also outrageously expensive by US standards.
From the Japanese perspective, their own products are not that expensive.
Consider these comparisons:
A pack of Hi-Lite cigarettes cost Y180 in 1977. They cost Y220 in 1992.
(A pack of Marlboros cost 65 cents in the US in 1977; now they cost $2 or
more.)
A pound of ground beef cost Y1500 in 1977. A pound of ground beef
now costs app. Y500.
A beef curry lunch in 1977 cost Y400. A beef curry lunch today costs
Y600. A stand-alone Big Mac in the US has gone from costing 75 cents in
'77 to costing $1.99 in '97.
I'm sure there are other, equally relevant comparisons.
Gasoline? The price of a subway ticket compared to NYC's? What a
cassette player component cost in yen in 1977 vs. what it costs today in
yen? Ad infinitum.
Now you tell me who is really paying more now than they were twenty years
ago?
Jon Claerbout
In article <342f92f3...@nnrp2.crl.com> do...@a.crl.com writes:
>It has come to my attention that Mike Fester wrote in article
><60ba0e$j0m$2...@nntp.Stanford.EDU>:>In fact I remember a number of newspaper and popular magazine articles
>from those days touting the Wankel as the new super engine that
>(presumably) would take over the US market--until Mazda started having
>all the trouble with blown oil seals.
My memory of the rotary engine is that
it had a very low pollution due to the
unusually cool engine,
this because of the high surface to volume ratio
of the combustion chamber.
A cool engine is also an inefficient engine
and what killed them was the petroleum supply panic
that suddenly arose
(which incidentally will be returning within a decade).
We are drifting a little off topic here.
I returned from Tokyo last week and was impressed
by the absence of kryptonite locks or even cable locks
on the bicycles.
> Does Mazda even make a rotary any
>more?
>--
>Don
Don Kirkman
>Eric Hildum (Eric....@Japan.NCR.COM) wrote:
>: Steve Sundberg wrote:
>: > shokku'. The only Japanese automaker who did not profit was Mazda... and
>: > then it was because the Wankel (rotary) engine used-- though it had an
>: > outstanding reputation for durability-- could not deliver the same gas
>: > mileage as a Honda or Toyota four-popper.
>: Mazda had that problem because of false statistics published by the US
>: Government on fuel economy. In fact, the Wankel engine is as good as or
>: better than comparable engines. The trick the US used was to compare the
>: Wankel against engines of much lower horsepower, thus the Wankel
>: appeared to have much worse fuel economy. A clever and effective trick
>: to keep out a superior engine technology.
>"to keep out a superior engine technology"?
>Hmmmmm. Wankels have been around since before WWI, where they were used in
>the first Fokkers (the monoplane D-I). They DO put out more HP for their
>displacement, but that's not why they failed, at least so far as the
>people I talked to were concerned. They failed because they had a tendency
>to break seals when driven on mostly long-range trips, as opposed to
>stop-and-go traffic. So, while they targetted the "fleet sales" market,
>that seemed to be exactly the market they were LEAST suited to. The bad
>rep they got there precluded their acceptence in the household market, where
>they were BEST suited.
>The technology is quite old, and there was no way the US was keeping it out
>of the country.
In fact I remember a number of newspaper and popular magazine articles
from those days touting the Wankel as the new super engine that
(presumably) would take over the US market--until Mazda started having
all the trouble with blown oil seals. Does Mazda even make a rotary any
more?
--
Don
Mike Fester
Don Kirkman (do...@a.crl.com) wrote:
: It has come to my attention that Mike Fester wrote in article
: >Hmmmmm. Wankels have been around since before WWI, where they were used in
: >the first Fokkers (the monoplane D-I). They DO put out more HP for their
: >displacement, but that's not why they failed, at least so far as the
: >people I talked to were concerned. They failed because they had a tendency
: >to break seals when driven on mostly long-range trips, as opposed to
: >stop-and-go traffic. So, while they targetted the "fleet sales" market,
: >that seemed to be exactly the market they were LEAST suited to. The bad
: >rep they got there precluded their acceptence in the household market, where
: >they were BEST suited.
:
: >The technology is quite old, and there was no way the US was keeping it out
: >of the country.
:
: In fact I remember a number of newspaper and popular magazine articles
: from those days touting the Wankel as the new super engine that
: (presumably) would take over the US market--until Mazda started having
: all the trouble with blown oil seals. Does Mazda even make a rotary any
: more?
Don't believe so.
The magazines you mention seem interesting, though. I remember reading mags
touting Harley's "new" belt drives, though they the ORIGINAL drive chains
on many motorcycles.
Anyway, the problem with the Wankels seems to have always been the tremendous
torque they generate. You can imagine how much more of a problem that would
be for an old airplane :-) Still, the torque might have something to do with
the blown seals, so...
Mike
Scott Reynolds
Jon Claerbout wrote in article <60ev8s$5i1$1...@nntp.Stanford.EDU>...
> I returned from Tokyo last week and was impressed
> by the absence of kryptonite locks or even cable locks
> on the bicycles.
I've seen Kryptonite locks on some motorcycles.
Another interesting thing is that whereas in the U.S., one locks one's bike
*to* something, in Japan people use locks simply to immobilize the bike.
This leads me to suspect that few Japanese thieves pick up bikes and walk
off with them or cart them away in trucks. In the U.S. I would *never* leave
a decent bike not locked to a bike rack, parking meter, or the like.
Of course, in the U.S. you'd have a hard time *giving* away those junky
"mamachari" type shopping bikes lots of people ride in Japan...
_______________________________________________________________
Scott Reynolds s...@gol.com
Charles M Richmond
I am going to add a few factual details to this discussion regarding
Felix Wankel and NSU. I have a small personal connection in that I lived
with the daughter of one of NSU's major stockholders right after the
time when the Spder and the Ro80 were winning rallies and garnering
fame. The distinctive sound of a 'tuned' Ro80 was famous in European
automotive circles in the late 60s and early 70s.
Don Kirkman wrote:
>
> It has come to my attention that Mike Fester wrote in article
> <60ba0e$j0m$2...@nntp.Stanford.EDU>:
>
> >Eric Hildum (Eric....@Japan.NCR.COM) wrote:
> >: Steve Sundberg wrote:
>
> >: > shokku'. The only Japanese automaker who did not profit was
> >: > Mazda... and then it was because the Wankel (rotary) engine
> >: > used-- though it had an outstanding reputation for durability
> >: > could not deliver the same gas mileage as a Honda or Toyota
> >: > four-popper.
>
> >: Mazda had that problem because of false statistics published by the
> >: US Government on fuel economy. In fact, the Wankel engine is as
> >: good as or better than comparable engines. The trick the US used
> >: was to compare the Wankel against engines of much lower horsepower,
> >: thus the Wankel appeared to have much worse fuel economy. A clever
> >: and effective trick to keep out a superior engine technology.
This is like 'conspiracy theory' thinking. The reality is that the
measured HP varies too much with the tuning to be used as a standard
of measurement. Even the fuel used and the level of humidity will have
profound effects on HP. The same NSU Spider engine that ordinarily
was rated at 65HP was able to develop 100HP in a rally tuned 11000 RPM
flavour. The fact the Wankel engine had better power conversion than
the piston engine was a big selling point. Nobody really cared about
fuel economy in the 60s or in the 70s before the first oil embargo,
but they did care about power.
>
> >"to keep out a superior engine technology"?
>
> >Hmmmmm. Wankels have been around since before WWI, where they were
> >used in the first Fokkers (the monoplane D-I). They DO put out more
> >HP for their displacement, but that's not why they failed, at least
> >so far as the people I talked to were concerned. They failed
> >because they had a tendency to break seals when driven on mostly
> >long-range trips, as opposed to stop-and-go traffic. So, while they
> >targetted the "fleet sales" market, that seemed to be exactly the
> >market they were LEAST suited to. The bad rep they got there
> >precluded their acceptence in the household market, where they
> >were BEST suited.
While the concept of rotary engines is quite old, Felix Wankel didn't
invent the his engine until 1934, thus the 'WWI' above is a probably a
typo for 'WWII'. The first car with a Wankel was the 1963 NSU Spider
which was followed in 1967 by the Ro80. Because of problems with seals
and with super-critical timing, NSU gave up trying to produce Wankel
engine cars for the consumer market. People were just not ready for a
car that dripped fluids on a regular basis. {-8
>
> >The technology is quite old, and there was no way the US was keeping
> >it out of the country.
>
> In fact I remember a number of newspaper and popular magazine articles
> from those days touting the Wankel as the new super engine that
> (presumably) would take over the US market--until Mazda started having
> all the trouble with blown oil seals. Does Mazda even make a rotary
> any more?
> --
Mazda attempted to overcome the problems with seals, the limited
lifetime of the engine, and the problem with badly timed engines
self destructing (by dieseling and firing against the rotation).
This effort was encouraged by the US and especially by Ford. The
1.3 liter 255HP RX-7 engine was admired and respected although much
of the power was due to the dual turbochargers.
Charlie
PS This thread has broght back memories to me and has made me consider
the difference between the diminutive Japanese woman that I married
and the 182cm, Valkyrie like, German princess who was my first
fiancee. The thoughts of both are quite happy. My thanks to the
thread originator for bringing back those memories.
--
***********************************************************************
* Charles Richmond Integrated International Systems Corporation *
* c...@iisc.com c...@koibito.iisc.com c...@shore.net *
* UNIX Internals, I18N, L10N, X, Realtime Imaging, and Custom S/W *
* One Longfellow Place Suite 3309 , Boston , Ma. USA 02114-2431 *
* (617) 723 7695 (617) 367 3151 FAX (617) 723 6861 *
***********************************************************************
Mike Fester
Charles M Richmond (c...@iisc.com) wrote:
: Don Kirkman wrote:
: > >"to keep out a superior engine technology"?
: >
: > >Hmmmmm. Wankels have been around since before WWI, where they were
: > >used in the first Fokkers (the monoplane D-I). They DO put out more
: > >HP for their displacement, but that's not why they failed, at least
: > >so far as the people I talked to were concerned. They failed
: > >because they had a tendency to break seals when driven on mostly
: > >long-range trips, as opposed to stop-and-go traffic. So, while they
: > >targetted the "fleet sales" market, that seemed to be exactly the
: > >market they were LEAST suited to. The bad rep they got there
: > >precluded their acceptence in the household market, where they
: > >were BEST suited.
:
: While the concept of rotary engines is quite old, Felix Wankel didn't
: invent the his engine until 1934, thus the 'WWI' above is a probably a
: typo for 'WWII'. The first car with a Wankel was the 1963 NSU Spider
OK, the story I got originally was form the book _Iron Men and Wooden
Wings_ by Lou Cameron, but I've seen it verified elsewhere.
Tony Fokker was an aircraft designer who landed a contract to build and
design planes for the Germans during WWI. Being an auslander, he was not as
well-conected as those who ran, say, Albatros, and was given neither
radial nor in-line engines. Instead, he was given a rotary, which Cameron
called a Wankel. If, as Mr Richmond points out, Wankel didn't build his
until 1934, then it is likely that that engine had certain refinements
compared to the rotaries used on the Fokker E-I.
Er, this doesn't have much to do with Japan, does it? Ah! I know.
Anyone know what Japan's airforce was like back then? :-)
Mike
Mitch Sako
Scott Reynolds (s...@gol.com) wrote:
: Jon Claerbout wrote in article <60ev8s$5i1$1...@nntp.Stanford.EDU>...
: > I returned from Tokyo last week and was impressed
: > by the absence of kryptonite locks or even cable locks
: > on the bicycles.
: I've seen Kryptonite locks on some motorcycles.
: Another interesting thing is that whereas in the U.S., one locks one's bike
: *to* something, in Japan people use locks simply to immobilize the bike.
: This leads me to suspect that few Japanese thieves pick up bikes and walk
: off with them or cart them away in trucks. In the U.S. I would *never* leave
: a decent bike not locked to a bike rack, parking meter, or the like.
: Of course, in the U.S. you'd have a hard time *giving* away those junky
: "mamachari" type shopping bikes lots of people ride in Japan...
Many of the "locks" are simply those kind that mount to the rear stays
like a set of claws that rotate around and pass through the rear wheel,
thereby immobilizing the bike. I've also seen some locks that are
nothing more than very thin cable with a lock that looks like it can be
broken with a small pair of pliers.
On a related topic, I've never seen a car alarm on any car in
Tokyo or any other part of Japan, at least an aftermarket one.
Of course, if you go to west LA, you won't see a late-model
car over $20K without a car alarm, either.
Charles M Richmond
Mitch Sako wrote:
> : : I don't have the figures but someone told me that less than half
> : : of those of driving age do not own a car, moreso, of those who do have
> : : a license, a relatively small percentage of those with licenses
> : : own their own car, many are paper drivers.
> : is increasing. BTW, as of 1990, over half the Japanese FAMILIES did, indeed,
> : have a car.
In 1993 the population of the US was 250M and the automobile ownership
was 146M. On the otherhand, the population of Japan in 1992 was 124M
and the automobile population was 39M. The Japan had only 53% as many
cars as a proportion of population as the US.
Charlie
Scott Reynolds
Lance Cummings wrote in article <342dd430...@news.gol.com>...
>We live on the second floor of a wooden house in Setagaya. My "shopping
>bike" (nothing special, for sure, but in excellent condition) has been
parked
>under the stairway about a foot off the street for almost 4 years now.
It's got
>one of those dinky locks as mentioned above. There is *nothing* stopping
>anyone from just picking it up and walking away with it. They could cut
the
>lock later at their leisure. But there it still sits. How long do you
think
>I'd have that bike in, say, Chicago? :-)
Well, since I have just moved to Tokyo from Chicago, perhaps I should
comment. ;-)
The fact is, almost no one leaves their bike "parked" outside when they're
not using it (locked or not). People who live in apartments generally keep
the bike inside. People with a garage keep the bike in the garage, and so
on. Leaving an expensive bike outside overnight would be looked at the same
way as leaving your car unlocked with the keys in the ignition.
Obviously, people think differently in Japan. But the paradox is, since
people who live in big cities in the U.S. take precautions as a matter of
course, they are in a sense less likely to be victimized than people in
Tokyo who do things like leaving their bikes completely unlocked on the
sidewalk.
_______________________________________________________________
Scott Reynolds s...@gol.com
D A J Fossett
> On a related topic, I've never seen a car alarm on any car in
> Tokyo or any other part of Japan, at least an aftermarket one.
> Of course, if you go to west LA, you won't see a late-model
> car over $20K without a car alarm, either.
More to the point... I've never *heard* a car alarm in Japan.
Isn't it wonderful!!
--
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Daisuke Yano
Scott Reynolds wrote:
>
>
> I've seen Kryptonite locks on some motorcycles.
>
> Another interesting thing is that whereas in the U.S., one locks one's bike
> *to* something, in Japan people use locks simply to immobilize the bike.
> This leads me to suspect that few Japanese thieves pick up bikes and walk
> off with them or cart them away in trucks. In the U.S. I would *never* leave
> a decent bike not locked to a bike rack, parking meter, or the like.
>
> Of course, in the U.S. you'd have a hard time *giving* away those junky
> "mamachari" type shopping bikes lots of people ride in Japan...
> Scott Reynolds s...@gol.com
Most of the "mamachari" owner would never think to use locks offered
by Kriptonite and such. Hundreds people leave their "mamachari" at
train stations for days anyways, thus creating a mojor problem. But
all my friends who ride expensive road or mtn bikes, they'll always
find a post of some sort to lock their bike to with either the
Kriptonite or Specialized locks. And also, they keep their bikes
inside the house at their "Genkan" or "Sooko". BTW, I have gotten
my "mamachari" stolen twice in Tokyo.
--
Daisuke Yano-----...@acme.gatech.edu
Manufacturing Research Center--Atlanta, GA
GEORGIA institute of TECHnology
tom
On 29 Sep 1997 09:00:33 -0700, la...@iac.co.jp (Lance Cummings) wrote:
>On 28 Sep 1997 22:00:07 -0700, in article <60l3nc$moj$1...@godzilla.gol.com>,
>"Scott Reynolds" <s...@gol.com> wrote:
>
>>Well, since I have just moved to Tokyo from Chicago, perhaps I should
>>comment. ;-)
>>
>>The fact is, almost no one leaves their bike "parked" outside when they're
>>not using it (locked or not). People who live in apartments generally keep
>>the bike inside. People with a garage keep the bike in the garage, and so
>>on. Leaving an expensive bike outside overnight would be looked at the same
>>way as leaving your car unlocked with the keys in the ignition.
>>
>>Obviously, people think differently in Japan. But the paradox is, since
>>people who live in big cities in the U.S. take precautions as a matter of
>>course, they are in a sense less likely to be victimized than people in
>>Tokyo who do things like leaving their bikes completely unlocked on the
>>sidewalk.
>
>Oh, don't get me wrong. Mine's locked. And the reason we don't put 'em
>inside here, as you've probably already noticed <vbg> is that there ain't
>enough space! ;-)
>
>Lance
We've had our second stolen in as many months. It was as secure as
possible given restrictions of space. Two locks on the bike, however,
not fastened to anything permanent; the management frowns on fastening
bikes to the apartment door handle. Poor sport, he.
Remove "darn" from my address to send mail.
Thanks,
tom
Scott Reynolds
Lance Cummings wrote in article <342fa54...@news.gol.com>...
>Oh, don't get me wrong. Mine's locked.
Actually, I assumed that it was. I was thinking more about people out
shopping and the like who leave the bike unlocked on the sidewalk while they
go about their business inside the store. Of course, not everyone does this,
but many do. Sorry about any ambiguity in my original post.
And speaking of bikes, I must say that I was surprised when I first got back
to Tokyo in July at the number of expensive mountain bikes around these
days. This seems to parallel the situation with cars (lots of SUVs now) and
is a big contrast with seven years ago, which is when I last lived in Tokyo.
I wonder if this trend will lead to more bike theft (and, perhaps, more
people getting into the habit of locking their bikes *to* things).
_______________________________________________________________
Scott Reynolds s...@gol.com