@@ Jews: Iran ready to take it to the brink @@
Arash
July 4, 2004
Experts: Iran Ready to Take It to the Brink
By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
WASHINGTON - With a dubious nuclear technology program, the capture of
British sailors last week and reports of meddling in fledgling Iraqi
affairs, Iran - a member of the now-notorious "axis of evil" - appears to be
testing the waters to see how far it can push the West.
Some foreign policy analysts say Washington may find it difficult to fight
back.
Joseph Cirincione: http://www.ceip.org/files/images/people/cirincione.jpg
"The costs of the Iraq war are higher than just the soldiers who are dying
and the money we are spending," said Joseph Cirincione
(http://www.ceip.org/files/about/Staff.asp?r=10), director of the
non-proliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(http://www.ceip.org/). The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq squandered much of the
U.S. authority in the Middle East and may have damaged America's ability to
get help from Muslim states to fend off threats from Iran, he said.
"We really destroyed our relationship with the Arab world, and we are now in
a much weaker position with Iran," he said.
http://www.iran-interlink.org/images/jafarzadehfox.jpg
MKO terrorist 'Ali Reza Jafarzadeh', frontman for the MKO and the NCRI in
the United States, and the darling of Fox, portrayed as their independent
Iran analyst.
"Iran is drawing a line in the sand," said Alireza Jafarzadeh
(http://www.iran-interlink.org/files/info/Jafarzadeh bio.htm) of Strategic
Policy Consulting (http://www.spconsulting.us/). Jafarzadeh, formerly linked
to the Washington, D.C.-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI),
which has been called a terrorist organization by the State Department, has
won much support on Capitol Hill for his work as a staunch watchdog of Iran'
s nuclear weapons programs.
"Iran clearly wants all players in Iraq to know that the bigger and more
populated and stronger neighbor is the big bully in the alley," he said.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), has claimed hundreds of
nuclear experts are working directly for Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, and that Iran seeks to have a nuclear bomb within two years.
Last week, FOX News showed satellite images of two locations in Iran that
are suspected of being sites for Iran's continued efforts to produce nuclear
weapons.
On Monday, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and his
weapons inspectors toured one of those facilities. The tour came after Iran
was rebuked by the IAEA two weeks ago for noncompliance with weapons
inspectors. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told Reuters that he was pleased
with Iran's cooperation.
The tour also followed an announcement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry on
Sunday that it would resume construction on centrifuges, a move critical to
building a nuclear bomb. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said
Iran will not begin enriching uranium, the process of injecting gas into
centrifuges.
The U.S. responded by suggesting that the United Nations may want to seek
sanctions on Iran. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice told "FOX News
Sunday" that the United States has been working with the IAEA and European
nations to make certain the Iranians know "they only have two choices - to
cooperate or face isolation."
Last week, experts warned the House International Relations Subcommittee on
the Middle East and Central Asia that a nuclear bomb in the hands of Iran
would spell imminent disaster for the United States.
Paul Leventhal: http://www.nci.org/4img/paul-portrait.jpg
"A nuclear-capable Iran, under their present leadership, could be an
unparalleled earthquake, with shockwaves that could rock the foundations of
U.S. vital interests in the region, at home and around the world," said Paul
Leventhal (http://www.nci.org/p/plbio.htm), founder of the Nuclear Control
Institute (http://www.nci.org/). Leventhal added that Iran's support of
terrorist organizations could lead to the further proliferation of nuclear
materials.
Curt Weldon: http://www.sarssars.org/images/2001cwphoto.jpg
Reports indicate that Iranians are helping insurgents in Iraq fight U.S.
forces and are terrorizing Iraqis aiding the new interim government, and
before that, the Coalition Provisional Authority. Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa.
(http://www.house.gov/curtweldon/), who has been keeping a close eye on
Iranian weapons acquisition and sales for years, emphasized this problem in
recent Capitol Hill hearings.
"In my opinion, the bulk of what we are seeing in terms of unrest in Iraq is
being carried out both by Iranians, by those groups being supported by Iran'
s money and by those organizations that are determined not to have Iraq be a
stable nation," he said.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, who testified at the hearing,
concurred, but did not overemphasize Iran's role.
"I agree with you that Iran is important. I wouldn't say it is the key to
everything," he said.
Iran also demonstrated its disregard for international relations last week
when it captured eight British sailors who said they had mistakenly crossed
into the Iranian side of a disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway between Iran and
Iraq. The prisoners, who were released after a week in captivity, were
paraded about on international television in what some say was a message by
hardline leaders that the country will not be trifled with.
Nile Gardiner: http://www.heritage.org/About/Staff/images/11693153.gif
"It is the first shot across the bow," said Nile Gardiner
(http://www.heritage.org/About/Staff/NileGardiner.cfm), international
affairs analyst with the Heritage Foundation http://www.heritage.org/ .
"This is really a wake-up call for Downing Street and the Foreign Office,"
Gardiner said, referring to the British government. Iran "senses weakness in
Iraq and a perceived weakness on behalf of Britain and America and they are
testing and probing the strength of the West in regard to Iraq."
Even with the aggressive moves by the regime in Tehran, analysts vary on how
to respond. Most of those who spoke with FOX agreed that a pre-emptive
strike like the one launched against Saddam Hussein, who had repeatedly
ignored U.N. disarmament resolutions and subverted international inspectors,
is not a viable option for Iran. Direct negotiations with the government or
supporting internal opposition groups combined with a "carrot and stick"
approach appear more feasible at this time.
"It's very uncertain - we don't know what is going to happen here, it could
go either way," Cirincione said. "A lot of it depends on keeping the
pressure on, that means having a united front with the Europeans and the
other nations in the region. It means having a comprehensive strategy
offering Iran positive incentives as well as disincentives."
Richard Murphy: http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/images/IOI/2004_05_03a.jpg
Richard Murphy (http://www.cfr.org/bio.php?id=93), a senior fellow with the
Council on Foreign Relations (http://www.cfr.org/), said the Iranians are
acting "paranoid" and "jumpy" because they perceive American and other
Western interests encroaching on the region. He suggested that it would
behoove the United States to ensure any action taken against Iran's nuclear
program has an international face.
"They are feeling that Uncle Sam is behind every corner waiting to bash
them," said Murphy. "What we do not need is an openly hostile Iran
intervening in Iraq."
Jafarzadeh, who said he believes the order to restrain the British soldiers
came straight from the hardline theocracy, suggested that the international
community be not only united, but firm as well. Anything less would make all
efforts useless.
"What would make [the mullahs] bolder and more persistent in pushing their
objectives is to see indecisiveness and confusion in the international
community," he said. "Tehran will only take you seriously when you are
serious, when you show teeth."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,124072,00.html