@@ Iran's diplomacy in action @@

[Arash]

Agence Global
August 23, 2006

Iran's Diplomacy in Action

Dr. Abbas Maleki

Dr. Kevah Afrasiabi

After months of delay in responding to the package of incentives offered by the UN Security Council's Permanent Five plus Germany [known as the "P-5" (Permanent-five), also mockingly called the "H-5" (Hereditary-five), to highlight the anachronism of their status in a world that aspires to democracy: Britain, France, Russia, China and the U.S. http://www.un.org/sc/members.asp ], Iran has submitted a detailed and comprehensive response that puts the diplomatic ball squarely back in the court of the P5+1.

While rejecting the UN's demand for an immediate halt to its uranium-enrichment activities, Iran's response still leaves the door open for serious negotiations, and perhaps an acceptable resolution of the nuclear showdown for all parties.

By agreeing to put the issue of suspension of enrichment activities on the table and to commence the talks immediately, Iran has sent a strong signal that the internal debate between power centers in Iran's leadership has ended in favor of voices of moderation seeking a mutually satisfactory resolution of the nuclear standoff with the West. It will be a pity if Washington overlooks this opportunity for a fair negotiation with Iran, especially considering the details of Iran's response.

Iran has, expectedly, sought clarification on a number of issues, including the following:

* The incentive package mentions respecting Iran's rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), yet the only NPT articles mentioned are "Articles I" and "Articles II", pertaining to non-proliferation, and not "Article IV", pertaining to a country's "inalienable right" to acquire nuclear technology;

* Iran wants firm guarantees on the proposed offers of nuclear assistance, such as the sale of light water reactors to Iran, as well as a secured nuclear fuel supply;

* Iran seeks clarification on the status of U.S. sanctions which presently prohibit those offers of nuclear and technological assistance to Iran: Is the United States willing to lift some if not all of those sanctions?

* The package's promise of an Iran-EURATOM cooperation agreement needs to be fleshed out;

* The package's brief reference to security and its hint of Iran's participation in a "regional security" arrangement needs further clarification; and,

* The timeline on the promised incentives, including the economic and trade incentives, has to be made specific.

Furthermore, Iran's response indicates that Iran is willing to re-adopt the IAEA's Additional Protocol and to take the steps toward legislating it as part and parcel of a final agreement.

Meanwhile, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, has declared Iran's willingness to use its influence in Lebanon for an Israeli-Hizbullah prisoners' exchange, reminding the world of Iran's stabilizing role.

Clearly, given the tight interplay between the nuclear issue and Iran's political identity, no one should be surprised that Iran's leaders have opted against committing political suicide by giving in to international pressure and suspending the nuclear fuel cycle. But, far from rejecting this demand, Iran's response makes rather clear its feasibility as a result of the proposed talks, which Iran is willing to commence immediately, particularly if Iran's abstract rights under Article IV of NPT are explicitly recognized by the P5+1.

In light of the rights-sensitive Iranian public, Tehran will seriously entertain suspending the fuel cycle if and when it feels vindicated as a matter of principle, in a manner which creates conditions conducive to the idea of suspensions. A face-saving solution appears in which Iran could decide against implementing as an abstract right hitherto thwarted by the P5+1.

And now the UN Security Council, which had given Iran until the end of August to halt its nuclear fuel cycle, has a unique role to play either as spoiler or catalyst with respect to the opportunity afforded by Iran's response -- to put the genie of Iran's nuclear crisis back in the bottle. Already Kofi Annan is directly involved in intense negotiations with Tehran, and, indeed, resolving the nuclear row may turn out to be one of the enduring legacies of the departing Secretary General.

Should the United States and its UN envoy, John Bolton, decide to ignore this opportunity and push for UN sanctions against Iran, despite the positive dimensions of Iran's offer, the stage will be set for a full-scale international crisis.

 

 

* Dr. Abbas Maleki was born in Tehran in 1957. He received his B.Sc. and M.S. in Mechanical and Industrial Engineering from Sharif (Aryamehr) University of Technology in Tehran. He has a Ph.D. in Strategic Management from the High University for Strategic Sciences, and in 1998, he was awarded an Honorary Doctorate from the Kazakh Academy of Sciences. He is an Assistant Professor at Sharif University of Technology and has taught such diverse subjects as Change Management in MBA programs, Iranian Foreign Policy, the Iranian Revolution, and Iran and its Neighbors. He has served as Director General of the International Institute for Caspian Studies, IICS (http://tinyurl.com/zdvwd) since 1997 and as Cultural Advisor to the Chancellor of Sharif University of Technology since 2004. He is a Member of the Board of Directors for the Islamic Culture Publishing Organisation and Deputy for International Affairs in the Office of the Grand Ayatollah Fazel Lankarani. He has been the Director of the International Relations Research Department at the Center for Strategic Research and Advisor to the President of the National Academy of Art in Iran since 2000; he has held the post of General Manager of Petropars Institute for Oil and Gas since 2004 and that of Collaborator in the Task Force on the Caucasus in the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels since 1999; he is a Member of the Editorial Advisory Board for "Iran & the Caucasus", a Member of the Editorial Board, "Raahbord (Strategy) Journal", Center for Strategic Research (CSR), Tehran, and has been Member of the Editorial Board for "Central Asia and The Caucasus Journal" (Central Asia and the Caucasus Information and Analytical Center, Sweden) since 2001. Professor Maleki has published widely on matters of strategic thinking, economics, international relations, Iranian foreign policy, and Iranian gas and oil policies.  He has also published and presented extensively, both in Iran and abroad, on the Caspian Sea and Region, Central Asia and the Caucasus, and Islam and Iranian culture. At Harvard University (http://tinyurl.com/hp2r4), he is working on energy security, emerging energy dialogue between the Middle East and East Asia, the Caspian Sea legal regime, and Persian Gulf collective security.

 

* Dr. Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, holds a Ph.D. in political science from Boston University. He has completed post-doctoral studies at Harvard University and UC Berkeley, and he has collaborated with the UN Program on Dialogue Among Civilizations (http://tinyurl.com/e4q4r). Dr. Afrasiabi is author of several books and numerous articles, including "After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy" (http://tinyurl.com/dyg67), "Iran's Foreign Policy Since 9/11", Brown's Journal of World Affairs, co-authored with former deputy foreign minister Abbas Maleki, No 2, 2003 (http://tinyurl.com/74bun [PDF]). Dialogue of Theologies As Dialogue of Civilizations (Global Scholarly Press, forthcoming), "Communicative theory and theology", Harvard Theological Review, and many articles in the New York Times, Telos, Brown's Journal of World Affairs, UN Chronicle (http://tinyurl.com/7faxb), Middle East Journal, International Herald Tribune, and the San Francisco Chronicle. He recently co-authored "Negotiating Iran's Nuclear Populism", The Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume XII, issue 1, Summer 2005, with Mustafa Kibaroglu (http://tinyurl.com/aze2v). He is also author of "Iran's Nuclear Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction" (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1419630393/). Dr. Afrasiabi teaches political science at Tehran University.

 

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