IT'S A WAIT AND WATCH GAME
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By Arun Nehru
Agenda
The Pioneer
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The second phase of polling is over and considering the
fact that this included most of the disturbed areas where
Maoists are active, the Election Commission and the
security forces have done well. As we head for the
remaining rounds of polling, sadly, all political parties
and leaders are playing the minority/majority card and are
busy politicising the interlinked issue of security. Harsh
words are being exchanged and all alliances, past and
present, are being ignored as each party strives to earn
debating points from the voting public.
There are no innocents in the political arena or for that
matter in the 'loyal' media attached to each political
interest. But sadly extremist elements on all sides do
receive encouragement during elections, and as a result,
sometimes there are visible swings, especially in marginal
seats. We see this happening both in Bihar and Uttar
Pradesh. In the former Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and the RJD are
getting more and more hysterical with each passing day as
they lose ground to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the
JD(U)-BJP combine. Whereas, in Uttar Pradesh the BJP may
gain as the BSP is likely to lose some so-called upper
caste support after the action taken against Mr Varun
Gandhi. But, on the other hand, both the BSP and the
Congress may gain from eating into the SP's minority vote-
bank due to the Kalyan Singh factor and internal turmoil
among the Muslim leaders of the SP.
Clear trends are emerging in Bihar, but in Uttar Pradesh
things are still fluid and there can be changes as we go
into the next round of polling in the State. I strongly
condemn the politics of blame game. I think it would be
fair to state that the entire debate regarding caste and
religion, and even security issues, pertains to minority
and majority vote-banks. This has little to do with our
country's future objective of emerging as a political and
economic superpower.
The four groups given in the chart reflect the reality of
the present situation. However, all this can change as the
results come in on May 16. Political arithmetic is
complicated and we have seen political parties and
individual leaders play 'musical chairs' on several
occasions. Given the fluid nature of the political
alliances there are three distinct possibilities of
Government formation.
First, the Congress as the single largest party can form
the Government with support from the Left, the SP, the LJP
and the RJD, along with the AIADMK and the PMK. Second, the
BJP, if they secure 150 plus seats, could form a Government
with many parties in Group C (LJP/Praja Rajyam) and Group D
(but the Left, the PDP, and the MIM will not join). The
third possibility could be the Left's attempt to forge a
non-Congress, non-BJP Government by drawing away some of
the allies -- such as the NCP, the JD(U) and the RLD --
from the two national parties, and offering the Congress
the opportunity to support the Third Front from outside.
I still feel that the Congress is the favourite to form a
coalition Government unless its seat share drops below 140
seats and the BJP wins more than 150. All this is well
within the realm of possibilities and I firmly believe that
we are heading for a stable Government with a very strong
Opposition.
We cannot afford confusion and chaos and I think the voting
public will think deeply as we head towards another two
rounds of polling. Considering we have millions of new
voters, a one to two per cent swing can dramatically change
the situation. I still see both the Congress and the BJP
getting close to 300 seats between them, and either of them
could form a stable Government.
The floating vote may well stabilise in favour of either
party and in States where both are in contention we may
well see the biggest changes in the next few weeks. A swing
of 20 seats in either direction can change the existing
power equations and I think this may well happen as the
voter is generally smarter than what political parties
think.
I find a distinct change in mood over the past year as
Chief Ministers in several States have won beating anti-
incumbency trends. There is a premium on integrity and good
governance based on stability. Mr Narendra Modi and Ms
Sheila Dikshit both won a third term in their respective
States, and Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Mr Raman Singh won
two consecutive terms, all by beating anti-incumbency
trends and campaigning on the development plank. The BSP
and the BJP both got a majority in Uttar Pradesh and
Karnataka respectively on the stability factor. There is a
distinct possibility that these trends will hold true for
this Lok Sabha election as well.
Orissa and Andhra Pradesh are having Assembly elections
simultaneously and we have an interesting situation
developing in both States. Mr Naveen Patnaik and the BJD
have severed their relationship with the BJP and without a
doubt the Congress will benefit from this split. But the
BJD may not get a majority on its own in the State, and
therefore, it may need the Congress's support to come to
power. Conversely, if the BJD wins 10 seats in the Lok
Sabha polls in the State it could extend support to the
Congress at the Centre and get a Cabinet Ministry or an MOS
portfolio in the bargain.
However, things can be quite different if Mr Patnaik gets a
majority on his own in the Assembly. In such a situation
his options at the Centre will be wide open. Nonetheless,
in both the situations he stands to gain from the results.
The situation in Andhra Pradesh is quite different in
theory but in a hung Assembly the Congress may well decide
to hammer out an agreement with the TRS over the Telangana
issue. Here again the final figures will determine the
party positions. Thus, the best policy for the moment for
all parties would be to maintain silence on alliances.
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