China+Taiwan-US

[gerard jud]

The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US efforts to split the island from the mainland.

The US does not want mainland China(for short, China) and its breakaway island province of Taiwan(for short, Taiwan) reunited. The reason is obvious. Reunification is against US national interest. The reunification will make China stronger and threaten US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. The Americans try all means to prevent reunification. They enhance the political divide by pressing Taiwan to adopt democracy. They nurture the Opposition and the Taiwan Independent movement.

It started with US meddling of the island’s politics. Defying China, the US helped to democratise Taiwan. It encouraged the growth of the Oppositions and pushed for the holding of National Elections. China was dead set against this. It took military actions against Taiwan to stop the first election. But US intervened with its superior military might. The first election was held and subsequent elections followed.

This is not accordance with any formal agreement. This is illegal. It is done without China’s approval. It is invalid because only the islanders voted while the billion+ mainlanders have no say.

Things grow worst when pro-Taiwan Independent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in government. DPP supporters against reunification readily resort to violence to get their way. The DPP looks up to the US to support it in power. Under DPP, US weapons sales to Taiwan increases sharply. Politicians from US-led West frequently visit Taiwan in the name of defending democracy and freedom but only to egg on the DPP to work faster towards separation and independence.

The Chinese realise this. They can see the road to peaceful reunification becoming more elusive. The military option becomes the more likely one. China bides its time and work feverishly to build up its military might.

China has all the moral rights to return Taiwan to its fold by whatever means. Taiwan has been a part of China up till the later part of the Qing Dynasty when it was captured by the Japs after a War in 1895. It then became a Japanese colony until the defeat of Japan in WW2. In 1949, after defeat in a civil war with the Communists, the Nationalist Government of the Kuomintang Party fled to Taiwan to establish power there. Taiwan became known as the Republic of China. Both the Communists and the Nationalists lay claim to the same China which includes the mainland and the island. Difference in ideology and separation by a straits of water have not diluted their common identity. People on both sides of the straits have not forsaken their common ancestry and racial root. They know they are all Chinese. Only a minority among the Taiwan Independent would vehemently deny this.

Damned Americans really show their anti-Chinese racism when they rope in the Japs to prevent China-Taiwan reunification. What does this tell the Chinese?
1. The Americans prefer Japs recolonisation of Taiwan and
2. they would like to see a repeat of Japs extreme atrocities on the Chinese.

All these effectively seal the road to peaceful reunification. They serve to convince the Chinese that military might is now the only means to reunification.

It would be challenging for China alone to take on the US and its democratic allies. It’s time for China and Russia to put their ‘no-limits’ co-operation into practice. China helps Russia to recover Ukraine and Russia helps China to reunite with Taiwan. It’s a win-win. The best outcome.

[A. Filip]

gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
> reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
> visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
> efforts to split the island from the mainland.

> […]

I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| To update Voltaire, "I may kill all msgs from you, but I'll fight
| for your right to post it, and I'll let it reside on my disks".
| (Doug Thompson (do...@isishq.FIDONET.ORG))

[ltlee1]

On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 2:13:07 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
> > reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
> > visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
> > efforts to split the island from the mainland.
> > […]
>
> I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
> really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
> Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
> circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
> matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.

"Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely."

America becomes a great power because it made a lot of right choices.
Power and picking right choices go hand in hand. Power allows more choices.
The freedom to choosing the right choice among a larger plate of alternatives
mean greater power down the road.

Corruption, in contrast, means refusal to make the right choices. Rigid thinking
as well as rigid behavior. The question before the US government and Americans
in general is whether preserving existing state of affairs (status quo) according to
whom and what criteria is the best choice among other alternatives.

Western democracy in general and America democracy appears to work during the
last century. Is it still working as expected today? Of course, making Western democracy
a kind of religion would allow practitioners of such democracy to evade the hard question.
Why bother? Western democracy is infallible relative to Communism.

Action's "Power tends to corrupt" apply to various power in general.
Action's "Absolute power corrupts absolutely" applies to infallibility especially the religious
or quasi religious kind.

[ltlee1]

On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 10:07:13 PM UTC-4, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US efforts to split the island from the mainland.

The heart of the issue is China cannot really tell what Nancy Pelosi had been offering to the ROC given US hostility and its continuous effort to split the Taiwan, China from Mainland China. Pelosi as well as Biden can deny everything all they want. Can China truth them with China's future?

The US had stationed nuclear weapon in ROC before. And it is obvious that this is the least expensive way to defend the ROC.

[gerard jud]

Status quo do change.
Under Chiang Kai Shek's rule, that was status quo, until his death.
Democracy has been introduced to Taiwan. The West would want this to be permanent status quo. But not China.

The US or any other nations should not get involved in the issue of China-Taiwan Reunification. Its none of their business. It's China's internal affair!

[gerard jud]

Taiwan and 21st Century Global Politics

What’s happening in Taiwan today has a broader context – Big Power Conflict of the 21st Century.

The US has clearly postulated a paradigm shift in its Global Strategy for the 21st Century – from Christian-Judeao-Islamic conflict to Big Power Conflict, the big powers being US, Russia and China.

For Russia the conflict is about the expansion of NATO towards the Russian border.

For China , it’s more complex and involve more nations and geographical areas - India, Japan, Australia, South China Sea, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan

The US-led West is planning for War on China. That’s the only way to stop the rise of China. Look at their possible plots against China and what role will they use Taiwan play in it, some of which are already implemented.

Use India as a counterweight against China.

Bring India into the Asia-Pacific and rename it Indo-Pacific,.

Create a NATO-like alliance against China, starting with the QUAD of US, India, Japan, Australia.

Create economic alliances that exclude China.

For Taiwan specifically:

Distance Taiwan from China. Drive a wedge between the island and the mainland.

Widen their political divide. Democratise Taiwan.

Arm the island with US weapons. These will first make it difficult for China to mount a military takeover. These weapons will become increasingly advanced until they can threaten the security of China.

A US military base on the island.

Make Taiwan a member of the Asia-Pacific version of NATO.



Most of these can happen only if Taiwan becomes an Independent Nation. That’s the way Taiwan will go if it is not reunited with China. Never trust those Westerners when they profess that they support the One-China Policy and are against Taiwan Independence. Reunification should happen sooner rather than later. The sooner the better.

Now that China has started military exercises around Taiwan, it faces a dilemma. Should they be stopped or should they be carried on until their real objective, Reunification, is reached?

What will happen if China stop these exercises before their real objective is reached? The repercussions for China will be dire. The US will use the exercises to frighten the DPP government into speeding up those scenarios for Taiwan as listed above.

Should China turn the military exercises to “special military operations” to reunify with Taiwan?

Before doing this, China should plan and co-ordinate with other countries which are also struggling against US world hegemony - Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Middle East, Afghanistan, Russia.

[A. Filip]

gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 6:13:07 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
>> gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
>> > reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
>> > visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
>> > efforts to split the island from the mainland.
>> > […]
>>
>> I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
>> really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
>> Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
>> circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
>> matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo
>

> Status quo do change.
> Under Chiang Kai Shek's rule, that was status quo, until his death.
> Democracy has been introduced to Taiwan. The West would want this to
> be permanent status quo. But not China.
>
> The US or any other nations should not get involved in the issue of
> China-Taiwan Reunification. Its none of their business. It's China's
> internal affair!

IMHO Taiwan is China internal affair but it is not PRC/communist China
internal affair. China had changed "a little" before HK New Territories
lease expired. [I bet the lease was intended as face saving legal
fiction but it turned out otherwise].

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| I call them as I see them. If I can't see them, I make them up.
| (Biff Barf)

[ltlee1]

On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 1:39:42 AM UTC-4, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 6:13:07 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> > gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
> > > reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
> > > visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
> > > efforts to split the island from the mainland.
> > > […]
> >
> > I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
> > really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
> > Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
> > circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
> > matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo
> >
> > --
> > A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> > | To update Voltaire, "I may kill all msgs from you, but I'll fight
> > | for your right to post it, and I'll let it reside on my disks".
> > | (Doug Thompson (do...@isishq.FIDONET.ORG))
> Status quo do change.
> Under Chiang Kai Shek's rule, that was status quo, until his death.
> Democracy has been introduced to Taiwan.

Not really.
The ROC was considered a democracy under Chiang Kai Shek according by the US as its allies. He was
certainly America's point man in the fight against Communism in East Asia. He, likewise treated the then
underground DPP as evil just like the US had treated its underground Communist Party.

Chiang Ching-kuo became the ROC president after Chiang Kai Shek's death. He was in man way ROC's
Deng. His policy greatly improve the economy and he allowed the DDP to participate in politics.

"Jay Taylor has described Chiang Ching-kuo as a figure who mixed the ideologies of Soviet communism,
Chinese nationalism, Taiwanese localism and American democracy, who became the helmsman of the
democratization of Taiwan.[41]

Unlike his highly controversial father, Chiang Ching-kuo’s reputation is overwhelmingly positive among the
Taiwanese population as the people of Taiwan recognizes his economic and social achievements, as well as
his efforts of democratization. 38.7% of the population considers him the best president who contributed the
most to Taiwan, and he was rated 84.8/100 by the Taiwanese population." (Wikepedia.com)

> The West would want this to be permanent status quo. But not China.

Where do you get this? Please don't make thing up.

To be sure, the PRC is under the one party rule of CCP. And the ROC is a
multiparty system today. So far no official statement on how Taiwan
should be governed. Simple reason, Taiwan is still an independent political
entity. It has internal legitimacy but almost zero external legitimacy.

The current PRC paradigm is
1) One China differently expressed and
2) No military action as long as the the ROC does not seek independence.
ROC 's Nationalist Party accepts both premises. The DPP rejects the One
China party but accepts the second one by default.

If the ROC is suggested 1C2S, the PRC would certainly accepts.

> The US or any other nations should not get involved in the issue of China-Taiwan Reunification. Its none of their business. It's China's internal affair!

Agree that China-Mainland and China-Taiwan reunification is totally China's internal affair.

[ltlee1]

On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 2:28:14 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 6:13:07 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> >> gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> > The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
> >> > reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
> >> > visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
> >> > efforts to split the island from the mainland.
> >> > […]
> >>
> >> I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
> >> really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
> >> Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
> >> circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
> >> matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.
> >>
> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo
> >
> > Status quo do change.
> > Under Chiang Kai Shek's rule, that was status quo, until his death.
> > Democracy has been introduced to Taiwan. The West would want this to
> > be permanent status quo. But not China.
> >
> > The US or any other nations should not get involved in the issue of
> > China-Taiwan Reunification. Its none of their business. It's China's
> > internal affair!
> IMHO Taiwan is China internal affair but it is not PRC/communist China
> internal affair.

For nations including the US which has accepted the One China principle,
i.e. there is only One China and the PRC is the sole legitimate representation
of CHINA, China's internal affair is 100% PRC/Communist China's

[bmoore]

On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 5:00:47 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 1:39:42 AM UTC-4, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 6:13:07 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> > > gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > > The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
> > > > reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
> > > > visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
> > > > efforts to split the island from the mainland.
> > > > […]
> > >
> > > I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
> > > really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
> > > Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
> > > circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
> > > matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.
> > >
> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo
> > >
> > > --
> > > A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> > > | To update Voltaire, "I may kill all msgs from you, but I'll fight
> > > | for your right to post it, and I'll let it reside on my disks".
> > > | (Doug Thompson (do...@isishq.FIDONET.ORG))
> > Status quo do change.
> > Under Chiang Kai Shek's rule, that was status quo, until his death.
> > Democracy has been introduced to Taiwan.
> Not really.

Yes, really. Please don't make things up.

[A. Filip]

bmoore <bmo...@nyx.net> wrote:
> On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 5:00:47 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
>> On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 1:39:42 AM UTC-4, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
>> > On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 6:13:07 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
>> > > gerard jud <gera...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > > > The Americans must be real idiots to think that China’s strong
>> > > > reactions are solely due to the withered old witch Nancy Pelosi’s
>> > > > visit to Taiwan. It’s not. It’s due to decades of continuous US
>> > > > efforts to split the island from the mainland.
>> > > > […]
>> > >
>> > > I call it preserving existing state of affairs (status quo). Do you
>> > > really expect US support for reunification of "separated for decades"
>> > > Taiwan with *communist* China (PRC)? I do not (except in very unlikely
>> > > circumstances) Reunification with post-communist China is quite another
>> > > matter. No dynasty rules forever. Some dynasties rule (very) long.
>> > >
>> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo
>> >

>> > Status quo do change.
>> > Under Chiang Kai Shek's rule, that was status quo, until his death.
>> > Democracy has been introduced to Taiwan.
>> Not really.
>
> Yes, really. Please don't make things up.
>
>> The ROC was considered a democracy under Chiang Kai Shek according by
>> the US as its allies. He was certainly America's point man in the
>> fight against Communism in East Asia. He, likewise treated the then
>> underground DPP as evil just like the US had treated its underground
>> Communist Party.

> […]

Sate directly *when* according to you "democracy entered Taiwan".
Taiwan is democratic today but I am not eager to treat 38 years of
martial law [A] as anything more than a Potemkin village democracy [B].
It lasted _much_ longer than a little bit too long.

Status quo may change *slowly* to be still treated as status quo.

[A] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Martial_law_era_(1949%E2%80%931987)
> Martial law era (1949–1987)
[B] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| I prefer rogues to imbeciles because they sometimes take a rest.
| (Alexandre Dumas, fils)

[Oleg Smirnov]

> [B] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village

The English Wikipedia article's claim "modern historians are divided on
the degree of truth behind the Potemkin village story" is false. Among
real historians there is quite a consensus that the story is a pure myth.
Origin and promotion of the myth is well-traceable via various sources.
Read the Russian Wikipedia article <https://is.gd/ld10Ii> through machine
translation to know the true story behind the myth. Also, the name of the
hero was Potyomkin, not Potemkin.

[bmoore]

Yes. I was actually *in* Taiwan when LTH won the first election in the 90s. PRC fired missiles, as usual.

Have you been to Taiwan?

> Status quo may change *slowly* to be still treated as status quo.

The Taiwanese evolution to democracy has been fairly fast, actually. CKS's son started it.

[A. Filip]

Potemkin village is as good as spanish inquisition and "And you are
lynching negros". Historical "exactness" is of secondary importance
in non historians discussions.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| Go slowly to the entertainments of thy friends, but quickly to
| their misfortunes. (Chilo)

[Oleg Smirnov]

A. Filip, <news:anfi+feo64...@wp.eu>

> "Oleg Smirnov" <os...@netc.eu> wrote:

>>> [B] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village
>>
>> The English Wikipedia article's claim "modern historians are divided
>> on the degree of truth behind the Potemkin village story" is
>> false. Among real historians there is quite a consensus that the story
>> is a pure myth. Origin and promotion of the myth is well-traceable via
>> various sources. Read the Russian Wikipedia article
>> <https://is.gd/ld10Ii> through machine translation to know the true
>> story behind the myth. Also, the name of the hero was Potyomkin, not
>> Potemkin.
>
> Potemkin village is as good as spanish inquisition and "And you are
> lynching negros". Historical "exactness" is of secondary importance
> in non historians discussions.

A. Filip is a Polish troll who was caught many times using fictitious
quotations and anecdotes (oftenly linked with Russia, since many Poles
have a strong fixation on Russia).

[ltlee1]

Elector College democracy wise, ROC under Chiang Kai Shek was considered by
the US and its allies as democratic.

Elector College democracy is not the same as universal male suffrage (without elector)
democracy. And different from universal male and female suffrage. And different from
universal male and female, white and colored people democracy. As its heart, the US
is still an elector college democracy. Potemkin democracy?

[A. Filip]

> quotations and anecdotes (oftenly linked with Russia, […]

Give message-id of such posts, state that you are expressing
your *opinion* or get lost.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| The best laid plans of mice and men are usually about equal.
| (Blair)

[A. Filip]

See "Our son of a bitch" (disputed) FDR quote.
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt
Do YOU share US (implied?) assessments about state of Taiwan "democracy"
under decades of martial law?

> Elector College democracy is not the same as universal male suffrage (without elector)
> democracy. And different from universal male and female suffrage. And different from
> universal male and female, white and colored people democracy. As its heart, the US
> is still an elector college democracy. Potemkin democracy?

Do you consider it as bad as 38 ears of martial law?

"Rome was not build in a day" - USA *started* as a democracy of slave
owners. Standards change over time.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| Modern art is what happens when painters stop looking at girls and
| persuade themselves that they have a better idea. (John Ciardi)

[ltlee1]

Is America today a democracy when people said the US government did not have
the consent of the people? And they don't trust the government.

[A. Filip]

Does it have even lower consent than CPC leadership of PRC?
[I leave "the perfect democracy" sell speech to usanesse.]

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill
> Whatever one may think about democratic government, it is just as well
> to have practical experience of its rough and slatternly
> foundations. No part of the education of a politician is more
> indispensable than the fighting of elections.
> In Great Contemporaries, "Lord Rosebery" (1937)

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| Suffocating together ... would create heroic camaraderie.
| (Khan Noonian Singh, "Space Seed", stardate 3142.8)

[ltlee1]

Funny answer.
1. If you or anyone know for a fact that CPC leadership has lower consent, please inform.
2. Any reason to believe whether the US, or Russia is a democracy depends on whether other
nations is also a democracy or not a democracy? Is a democracy not about the a government
and its citizens?

[A. Filip]

>> [I leave "the perfect democracy" sell speech to usanesse.]

>> […]

> Funny answer.
> 1. If you or anyone know for a fact that CPC leadership has lower
> consent, please inform.
> 2. Any reason to believe whether the US, or Russia is a democracy
> depends on whether other nations is also a democracy or not a
> democracy? Is a democracy not about the a government and its citizens?

We both agree that US democracy is "less good than advertised".
We seem to disagree if it is bad enough to make it worse that non
democratic alternatives (in particular PRC and Putinistan).
Being worse would make it a Potemkin village squared.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
| (Oscar Wilde)

[ltlee1]

What you or I think is irrelevant.
The issue is whether the US government is legitimate?

[paul polikos]

“Taiwan is a part of China” is an irrefutable fact. This needs no further argument. The problem for the Chinese is how best to reunite the island with the mainland, with the US standing in the way.

The US interest in Taiwan lies in the value of the island as a pawn in its Big Power Conflict with China. While moving Taiwan against China, the US spins the issue to make China out to be the culprit in the eyes of the world.

“China cannot unilaterally change the status quo”
“Reunification should only be achieved through peaceful means”
“China is disturbing regional and world peace.”

In their might-makes-right world, the Westerners believe they have the might, and therefore the right, to decide when and how China should reunite with Taiwan, if at all. According to their “rule-based world order”, China must follow their rules if it wants to reunite with Taiwan without disturbing the world order. The catch-22 is that China will never be reunited with Taiwan if it were to follow Western rules.

Since Taiwan is a part of China, its reunification with China is irrefutably the internal affair of China. No other nation should meddle in this. China does not have to seek approval from other nations in the world on how it will bring about reunification.

But the Westerners are telling China this:
What is rightly yours will not belong to you unless you have the might to own it.

It’s true that China does not have the might et to take on the US alone. The US can integrate its might with other like-minded democratic nations to form a coalition. To take them on, China too needs to form a coalition with other willing nations. There are many from those who are against US regional and world hegemony.

Alone or in coalition with other nations, China must reunite with Taiwan.To allow Western Powers to split Taiwan from China now is no different from not being able to prevent them from carving up China in the 19th-20th Century. It means the Chinese is still as weak as they were during those unfortunate times in their history.

[stoney]

No matter what it takes China to do, it has to reunite Taiwan. AS Taiwan belongs to China and if the Taiwan people and its self-proclaimed leaders wish to leave Taiwan, they can do so.

[dosai prata]

WILL TAIWAN REUNITE WITH CHINA?

After going through a turbulent period of street protests and agitations for Independence from China, Hong Kong is now definitely reunited with China, under a One-Country-Two-Systems model of governance. But China should not expect a similar reunification model for Taiwan. There are various reasons for the failure of the Hong Kong Independent Movement. Most important of all is that it did not have the support of the HKSAR government. In Taiwan, the Movement for Taiwan Independent(TI) has been well established over decades. Its political wing, the DPP, has won elections to rule Taiwan for years. Reunification with Taiwan will not be as easy as it is for Hong Kong.

What is China up against in its Reunification with Taiwan? This can be broadly analysed as Internal and External Forces.


INTERNAL FORCES

In Taiwan, there are two main parties – KMT and DPP, each with different principles regarding reunification and independence.
KMT - anti-Independent but Reunification only on its terms, which is that it will be the government of a reunited China.
DPP - anti-Reunification, pro-Independent.

EXTERNAL FORCES

The external forces preventing Reunification is much bigger and stronger than the internal forces. It’s a US-led international coalition of democracies consisting mostly of Western nations and some Asian ones which have territorial disputes with China.

The rise of China has made it a threat to the US-led West. In this 21st century, the US Global Strategy emphasises Big Power Conflict between the US, Russia and China. The US and China are now in open conflicts in many areas. In these conflicts, the US is using Taiwan as a pawn to move against China and the issue of Reunification is China’s problem it can manipulate and exploit to its advantage. US has no wish to see Reunification. It is against US’s national interest. Reunification will turn China into a bigger threat to US regional and world hegemony.

Internal and external forces are working together to split Taiwan from China. Whenever China counters their moves, it is accused of trying to change the status quo unilaterally.


WHAT IS TAIWAN’S STATUS QUO?
Under current status quo of DPP rule, Taiwan’s anti-China, anti-Reunification and pro-Independent stance is most pronounced. The DPP boldly declares that Taiwan is an Independent Nation the future of which can only be decided by the people on the island. It is in collusion with the US to bring about separation and independence.

The DPP government acts against China whenever and wherever it can. It spends big to boost its defence against China with weapons purchases from US. It actively pushes to expand it’s international space, with help from US. It allows US governmental organisations and NGOs based on the island to carry out covert operations against China. Politicians from the democratic world, especially the US, are permitted to visit Taiwan in defiance of China’s sovereignty over the island. The most sinister plot of the DPP government against China concerns the island population. It carries out policies and social engineering programs to change the identity of the people on the island, from being Chinese to being Taiwanese.

Status quo will lead Taiwan towards separation and independence. This is not acceptable to China. Peaceful Reunification is a pipe dream. Internal forces within Taiwan do not want it. Neither do external forces. Instead, they are working hard together to bring about separation and independence.


MILITARY OPTION IS THE ONLY CHOICE
MILITARY EXERCISES
The Chinese responds to intolerable provocations from Taiwan by mounting military exercises aimed at the island. These exercises have their pros and cons. They expose Chinese war strategies and tactics, making preemptive strikes in the future more difficult. While such exercises can only be temporary, their negative effects on the population are more permanent. “China is a bully that makes our lives difficult” stays on the mind of the people long after the exercises ended. How the exercises ended has their effects too. If they end without any damage to the island, those supporters of TI will ridicule China for being a paper tiger which can only roar but not bite. This emboldens them to become more defiant towards China and to seek more protections from the US.


OPEN WAR?
Since the start of Russia’s “special military operations” in Ukraine, the US has raised the specter of China starting similar operations in Taiwan. This has the intended effect of the DPP regime seeking more political and military supports from the US and purchasing more arms from the US. This causes tension between the island and China to spiral upward.

Should China mount an open war to take over the island? It would be China vs US-led democratic coalition, with Taiwan as the proxy. It will be like Russia vs Ukraine. The hit back will not be just military but also economic, cultural...everything. China would face economic sanctions and international isolation. It will be Chinese-killing-Chinese, with the non-Chinese, especially the Americans, only too happy to supply weapons to Taiwan. Taiwan will suffer the most in such a war. Unlike in Ukraine, the US would put boots on the ground in Taiwan because when it comes to the crunch, the US nuclear arsenal is much bigger than that of China.

It would be challenging for China alone to take on a US-led democratic coalition. China too will have to form its own coalition with like-minded nations or co-ordinate with these nations to start their own military operations against their US-backed enemies. This will spread thin the US military might.

Another factor for Chinanto consider before starting the war is this. Is it wise for China to start a war at its own front yard, with American bases and American allies so close by? The US can also co-ordinate with its allies to start military operations against China simultaneously. In such a war, Mainland China is vulnerable to attacks while Mainland USA is not.


WINNING THE HEARTS AND MIND OF THE PEOPLE.
China may be able to take over Taiwan by force but winning over the hearts and mind of the people on the island after that will be another matter. The dilemma is that this will also become more difficult if the island were to be left under DPP rule. Every DPP government has initiated policies and social engineering programs to change the hearts and mind of the people on the island negatively towards China. These programs aim to break the bonds of common ancestry and racial root between the people on both sides of the strait. Starting from young, children in schools are being indoctrinated to believe that they are different from people on the mainland, that they are Taiwanese, not Chinese. Youngsters are indoctrinated to look upon China as enemy, to be prepared to sacrifice themselves to fight against the Chinese to protect their homeland of Taiwan.



MILITARY SUPREMACY
Ultimately, might, especially military might, will provide the solution. Once China becomes the mightiest military power, its enemies now will become its friends. People on both sides of the strait will prefer the regime on the mainland over the one on the island.

China is still lagging the US in military might. It has to build up its nuclear arsenal, its naval and air forces. All in, it has to be able to project its military might into the US neighborhood and fight a war on US soil.

Without the US, Taiwan’s defenses become nothing. The DPP knows it. To solve the Taiwan problem is to get the US out of the way. This does not necessarily mean ending up with the Americans prediction of “War with China”. All the Chinese have to do is to prove beyond doubt that Chinese military might can leapfrog all those rings of defences that the Americans have build around China and go for the jugular, i.e., the US Mainland. No Americans would want their homeland sacrificed in any way to save Taiwan.


CONCLUSION
Leaving Taiwan at status quo means allowing it to move unimpeded towards Independence. Due to US Global Strategy, Peaceful Reunification is a pipe dream. The military option is what’s left for China. The question is when. Has China become strong and powerful enough to start a war over Taiwan?

[wog wacker]

When a foreign nation sails its naval vessels through a waterway between two parts of another nation and claim its about freedom-of-navigation, then this is not a rule- but a might-based world.


All these American political and military provocations against China also reveals one thing, i.e., China is not ready for war with the US. It lacks the intelligence network to provide it with critical information for the war.


China should first achieve this capability - be able to know who among US politicians will be visiting Taiwan and then track their movement all the way to Taiwan. It should be able to do likewise to US military aircraft and naval vessels approaching Taiwan. It should be able to make such information available on the Internet in real time. This will help to deter US provocations.

When a foreign nation sails its naval vessels through a waterway between two parts of another nation and claim its about freedom-of-navigation, then this is not a rule- but a might-based world.

All these American political and military provocations against China also reveals one thing, i.e., China is not ready for war with the US. It lacks the intelligence network to provide it with critical information for the war.

China should first achieve this capability - be able to know who among US politicians will be visiting Taiwan and then track their movement all the way to Taiwan. It should be able to do likewise to US military aircraft and naval vessels approaching Taiwan. It should be able to make such information available on the Internet in real time.

[wog wacker]

What will an independent Taiwan be like? Should China wait for it to happen?

An independent Taiwan will be a small nation. No matter how independent a small nation believes itself to be, it will always have to depend on bigger and more powerful ones.

An independent Taiwan will be nothing but a US-dependent territory, like some of those strings of Pacific Islands. Its economy will largely depend on US trade, investments and market. Its defense and security will depend on US military might. An independent Taiwan will become a bastion of Western Powers. It will host military bases of US-and-allies. Japan and India will be two of those allies.

Changing The Population
As it is now, the US-and-allies consider Taiwan’s population too Chinese for comfort. To them, the DPP government social engineering policies to indoctrinate the people on the island to believe that they are Taiwanese rather than Chinese are good and necessary but not sufficient. To be more on the safe side, US-and-allies would want a drastic change in the ethnic composition of the population. They would want to see a more diverse and inclusive population where the Chinese will make up only one of many ethnicity. Immigration will be the way to this end. The DPP will be pressured to accept many more non-Chinese immigrants. Priorities will be given to those from the nations of the QUAD. Japan will be very keen to participate in such a scheme. Its an opportunity for the Japs to relive their colonial past in Taiwan. It will be a godsend for India where the population growth is out-of-control. Following the change in the ethnic mix of the population will come the cultural change. US-and-allies will push for the “melting pot” model where people of various ethnicity will have one Westernised, English-speaking culture. With such a population, Taiwan can easily become an anti-China and anti-Chinese Rebel Island.


Those occasional China’s military exercises are not helping to prevent the above scenario from happenning. Instead they provide accuses for the US and the DPP government to work together to push Taiwan towards such a scenario. In respond to the exercises, more American and European politicians are visiting Taiwan and the US will speed up its arms sales to Taiwan. That schoolgirl President of Taiwan is talking and acting tough. When the first bomb is dropped, she will run to hide underneath her bed and wet her pants.


Recently there was an announcement of Taiwan recruiting more foreign workers.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3190982/why-taiwan-suddenly-needs-400000-foreign-workers-critical

They will be the new immigrants and most will be non-Chinese.


How long can China wait when Taiwan is turning into an anti-China anti-Chinese polity by the day?

[gerard jud]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/asia/biden-us-troops-defend-taiwan-intl-hnk/index.html

This should not and will not deter China from reuniting with Taiwan, by force, if necessary. The question is to what extent will the US be prepared to defend Taiwan. In the Chinese civil war, they supplied arms and advisors to the Nationalists which in the end still lost the war. Or like in the past in Korea, Vietnam and more recently, Afghanistan? In all three cases, the US could not last to the end in the fight. In Korea, it agreed to an armistice. In Vietnam, it was kicked out. In Afghanistan, it fled with its tail between its legs.

Bear in mind that in all four cases, the US had the luxury of fighting away from home ground. As a result, it enemies home grounds suffered damages while its own home ground remained intact. Fighting against China in the 21st Century will be different. China has the capability to bring the fight to the US homeland. It can by-pass and leapfrog the rings-of-fires and tripwires the US has built around it. More importantly, the fight can turn nuclear. How many Americans will be willing to suffer a nuclear attack in their own homeland in defence of Taiwan?

Before any further futile talks or sabre-rattlings, the US should conduct a nationwide survey with the following question:

Should the US take the risk of being nuked by China in order to prevent a China-Taiwan Reunification?

Those Taiwan Independents would be most interested to know the result.

[paul polikos]

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/09/22/2003785743

Peaceful Reunification may only be unilateral optimism on the part of China.
To the current regime of Taiwan, the reality is this: Peace? Can’t have more of it. Reunification? Dream on!

The current Russia-Ukraine Conflict provides many valuable lessons for China with reference to its Reunification with Taiwan. When Chinese experts analyse the events that lead to the conflict, they may find similarities which may lead to the same ending, i.e., war between Taiwan and China.

The events that lead to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict have eerie similarities to those which have happened and are happening between China and Taiwan.

Similar to Ukraine, in Taiwan, the ruling DPP regime is adopting the same doctrines and policies of the regime of Ukrainians racists and nationalists. The people of Mainland China and those on the island of Taiwan share the same ancestry and racial root. Both are Chinese. But the DPP indoctrinates the Chinese on the island with the political ideologies of Democracy and Nationalism, making them forsake their racial origin and fight for independence and separation from China. The DPP regime is conducting social engineering to nurture the island’s population into one which is anti-China and anti-Chinese. Anti-Chinese racism will grow deeply and spread widely as the DPP rule continues as the status quo in Taiwan. What happened to the Russians in the Donbass region of Ukraine will happen to those Chinese on the island of Taiwan who resist DPP regime’s indoctrination.

Meanwhile, external forces work closely with the DPP regime to threaten China’s security. The DPP openly denies China’s sovereignty over the island. Western politicians visit Taiwan to give international recognition to the DPP regime and boost its defiance of China.
US Congress approves huge arms sales of advanced weapons to Taiwan. US forms military alliance such as the QUAD to contain China. This will grow into a NATO-like alliance with more international allies, bringing anti-China pro-Taiwan military might threateningly close to China. Very similar to what Russia experiences from NATO with regard to Ukraine.

Will such close similarities in the Russia-Ukraine and China-Taiwan situations not lead to the same ending of war between China and Taiwan as has happened between Ukraine and Russia?


Does China have the luxury of sitting out and waiting patiently for peaceful reunification with Taiwan to happen? The longer it waits the more catastrophic will the war between them when it happens.

[ltlee1]

And they will be very disappointed. But in the long run, the US is a non issue.

China can wait. However, China will NEVER renounce the Responsibility to reunify
and the Right to reunify by force if necessary. ROC should and would do the same
if the situation is reversed.

[stoney]

On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:54:23 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> And they will be very disappointed. But in the long run, the US is a non issue.
>
> China can wait. However, China will NEVER renounce the Responsibility to reunify
> and the Right to reunify by force if necessary. ROC should and would do the same
> if the situation is reversed.

What would Taiwan do in what situation when reversed?

[decadence thlon]

China should not show that it can wait when the DPP is in government because this will give the Taiwan Independents the impression that the DPP is strong enough to stand up to China and protect Taiwan. Public opinions will sway towards the DPP. Then, the DPP will win election after election. China should make the Taiwanese Independents and other Taiwanese realise that the DPP government always put the island on a warpath with China, thus putting the people on the island in mortal danger.

[ltlee1]

Not Taiwan.
Taiwan as an independent political entity does not exists, past and present.
ROC, however, exists and it exits to benefit all Chinese for both short and long
term.

The PRC will do everything, including the military, to reunify because such
unification is believed to be necessary and unavoidable in order to benefit the
Chinese people for the short and especially the long term.

[ltlee1]

I hope they know better than that. They just have to look at Ukraine.
China have told all nations that there is only one China. And they
agree with China's position regarding the ROC as the condition of
establishing diplomatic relation. At present, no independence, no
war is the implicit consensus.

In addition, Russia has effectively lowered the threshold for using nuclear
weapon for self defense. Chinese reunification is China's internal affair,
a still unfinished business between the PRC and the ROC. To be finished
when the cost-benefit scale tilt toward reunification.

[stoney]

On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 6:13:22 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:

> > What would Taiwan do in what situation when reversed?

> Not Taiwan.
> Taiwan as an independent political entity does not exists, past and present.
> ROC, however, exists and it exits to benefit all Chinese for both short and long
> term.
>
> The PRC will do everything, including the military, to reunify because such
> unification is believed to be necessary and unavoidable in order to benefit the
> Chinese people for the short and especially the long term.

Imagine this could happen when China unified Taiwan people back to its people in China:

When the PLA forces walked into Taiwan, the people there will line the streets to clap their hands, and cried to welcome them, for freeing them from their evil leader, Tsai. They will line the street to thank the PLA troops for freeing them and reuniting them with their families and relatives in the motherland, China. The Taiwanese people will capture the wicked Tsai. They will hand her over to their butcher's market to put her into the pig cage for the water dipping ritual before airfreighted to China. Her deployed troops will return to camps and disarmed and report for prisoners-of-war's headcounts. They will be kept in camps until their parents come forward to identify them and to strip off their rank, uniform, and boot and burn them and change them into civilian white T-shirt emblazon with the word "We nearly lost Taiwan by being puppet to US.

[A. Filip]

ltlee1 <ltl...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 5:29:59 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
>> On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:54:23 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
>> > And they will be very disappointed. But in the long run, the US is a non issue.
>> >
>> > China can wait. However, China will NEVER renounce the Responsibility to reunify
>> > and the Right to reunify by force if necessary. ROC should and would do the same
>> > if the situation is reversed.
>> What would Taiwan do in what situation when reversed?
>
> Not Taiwan.
> Taiwan as an independent political entity does not exists, past and
> present. ROC, however, exists and it exits to benefit all Chinese for
> both short and long term.

> […]

So what? Formally you are right. But after abandoning "One *RoC*
China" RoC became Taiwan *politically*.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| Conquest is easy. Control is not.
| (Kirk, "Mirror, Mirror", stardate unknown)

[ltlee1]

On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:39:12 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:

> ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 5:29:59 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> >> On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:54:23 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> >> > And they will be very disappointed. But in the long run, the US is a non issue.
> >> >
> >> > China can wait. However, China will NEVER renounce the Responsibility to reunify
> >> > and the Right to reunify by force if necessary. ROC should and would do the same
> >> > if the situation is reversed.
> >> What would Taiwan do in what situation when reversed?
> >
> > Not Taiwan.
> > Taiwan as an independent political entity does not exists, past and
> > present. ROC, however, exists and it exits to benefit all Chinese for
> > both short and long term.
> > […]
>
> So what? Formally you are right.
> But after abandoning "One *RoC*
> China" RoC became Taiwan *politically*.

The ROC constitution was amended at 199 to designate Taiwan Island +
some small islands as the Free Area of the Republic of China. But the ROC
Constitution is still in force. Politically speaking, the ROC government must
operate according to the ROC constitution. Hence Taiwan as an independent
political entity does not exists, past and present, formally and operationally.

[A. Filip]

Do you demand the change of RoC constitution?

Anyway: You have provided a quite reasonable argument => Taiwan should
not be recognized as an independent country before quite fundamental
_constitutional_ changes.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| Intuition, however illogical, is recognized as a command
| prerogative. (Kirk, "Obsession", stardate 3620.7)

[decadence thlon]

RoC - Republic of China
PRC - People’s Republic of China
In both references, the China refers to Mainland China and the island of Taiwan+some small islands(for short, Taiwan).

RoC is only meaningful to the Kuomintang. To those Taiwan Independents and its political arm DPP, they are not interested in a China that binds together the Mainland and Taiwan. They are only interested in Taiwan. They want Taiwan to be an independent political entity on its own, separated from China. A DPP government rules Taiwan as an independent nation. That’s the reality. The wordings in the Constitution may be different but that’s moot. They will be changed as DPP rule becomes more established over time.

What about the rest of the world? There are only few remaining countries left which have diplomat relationships with Taiwan. Many more declare that they have a ‘One China’ policy. That's only in words. In reality, many of them treat Taiwan as a de facto nation, referring to it fondly and protectively as a self-ruling democracy. Those that matter include The Five Eyes, EU and Japan. That’s more than enough. These maintain political, economic and culture connections with Taiwan. They are prepared to resort to force to prevent China from taking over Taiwan by force.

That’s the peaceful status quo. Reunification will not happen under it. Instead, it means a Taiwan which will grow more independent and separated from China. In short, there will be no Peaceful Reunification, only Peaceful Independence and Separation.

[stoney]

Yes, those countries that treat China as "One China" policy and treat Taiwan as a de facto nation are indeed only in words. Seriously, they are bluffing China because they have to appease China with diplomatic relationship to trade and business with each other. Even then, despite their de-facto, they do trade business with Taiwan also.

Henceforth, China must step the recovery of Taiwan and not to wait as Taiwan is gearing up purchases of high weaponry with US to fight China. US has interest in the supply for business revenues but also to station a base in Taiwan for its permanent confrontation at China.

[ltlee1]

On Monday, September 26, 2022 at 8:17:10 AM UTC, decadence thlon wrote:
> On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 10:13:22 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 5:29:59 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> > > On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:54:23 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > And they will be very disappointed. But in the long run, the US is a non issue.
> > > >
> > > > China can wait. However, China will NEVER renounce the Responsibility to reunify
> > > > and the Right to reunify by force if necessary. ROC should and would do the same
> > > > if the situation is reversed.
> > > What would Taiwan do in what situation when reversed?
> > Not Taiwan.
> > Taiwan as an independent political entity does not exists, past and present.
> > ROC, however, exists and it exits to benefit all Chinese for both short and long
> > term.
> >
> > The PRC will do everything, including the military, to reunify because such
> > unification is believed to be necessary and unavoidable in order to benefit the
> > Chinese people for the short and especially the long term.
> RoC - Republic of China
> PRC - People’s Republic of China
> In both references, the China refers to Mainland China and the island of Taiwan+some small islands(for short, Taiwan).
>
> RoC is only meaningful to the Kuomintang.

Impossible in reality.
For example, the following Act enacted by the ROC government concerning the relation between
mainland and Taiwan people.
https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=Q0010001
" 第 一 章 總則
第 1 條
國家統一前，為確保臺灣地區安全與民眾福祉，規範臺灣地區與大陸地區人民之往來，並處理衍生之法律事件，特制定本條例。本條例未規定者，適用其他有關法令之規定...

Chapter I General Provisions
Article 1
This Act is specially enacted for the purposes of ensuring the security and public welfare in the Taiwan Area, regulating dealings between the peoples of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and handling legal matters arising therefrom before national unification. With regard to matters not provided for in this Act, the provisions of other relevant laws and regulations shall apply."

"...before NATIONAL UNIFICATION."

> To those Taiwan Independents and its political arm DPP, they are not interested in a China that binds together the Mainland and Taiwan. They are only interested in Taiwan. They want Taiwan to be an independent political entity on its own, separated from China. A DPP government rules Taiwan as an independent nation. That’s the reality. The wordings in the Constitution may be different but that’s moot. They will be changed as DPP rule becomes more established over time.

DDP leader sold their TI souls for ROC power. DPP certainly could maintain their TI position as
a revolutionary party of the ROC. Once DDP took power and swore to the ROC Constitution, they
should honor their commitment and uphold the ROC Constitution. The ROC is not a government
in exile. But it could function as a revolutionary part of China. And fulfills the promise and hope
of the free area of the ROC and proves to the world that its system is better. Unfortunately, ROC
have lost their collective heart because of its so called democracy.

As is, Taiwan is more like an area the ROC where the leaders are lack of calcium,. As a whole,
soulless and heartless. Even if the PRC does not take Taiwan back by force, its leader would one
day surrender. Currently, it is "...before NATIONAL UNIFICATION."

>
> What about the rest of the world? There are only few remaining countries left which have diplomat relationships with Taiwan. Many more declare that they have a ‘One China’ policy.
> That's only in words. In reality, many of them treat Taiwan as a de facto nation, referring to it fondly and protectively as a self-ruling democracy. Those that matter include The Five
> Eyes, EU and Japan. That’s more than enough. These maintain political, economic and culture connections with Taiwan. They are prepared to resort to force to prevent China from taking over Taiwan by force.

The ROC exists to benefit its people, mainlanders as well as Taiwaners per its constitution. Other
countries have no such obligation. Whether ROC is souless and heartless have little to do with
foreign countries. It is about ROC leaders. The PRC did not defeat the ROC and won the people by
hiding behind other countries.

[decadence thlon]

While China keeps talking about Peaceful Reunification, the US is preparing for war a big with China over the issue. It is moving in huge amount of war supplies to Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan. This is to ensure that it will not have the logistics problem caused by the Pacific Ocean lying between Taiwan and US. It is providing weapons to Taiwan on a use-first-pay-later arrangement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4dKqTgjSlo

[ltlee1]

So?

[ltlee1]

On Monday, September 26, 2022 at 9:16:51 AM UTC, stoney wrote:

US intention is not new.
I find it odd that China was recycling Xi's 4+ years old speech in which he emphasized the long view.
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2022-09/15/c_1129000323.htm

"党的十九届一中全会后我见中外记者时说，中国共产党立志于中华民族千秋伟业，百年恰是风华正茂。同时，我讲这个话时也是有深深的忧患意识的。从我国历史看，朝代存在时间长的有夏朝400多年、商朝约600年、西周约300年、东周500多年、西汉215年、东汉195年、唐朝290年、明朝277年、清朝268年，短的有秦朝15年、三国61年、北宋167年、南宋153年、元朝90年、民国38年，其他小朝代昙花一现、朝生暮死不计其数。秦朝、北宋、元朝都曾经是不可一世的强国，但很快就日薄西山。就是那些时间较长的朝代，后期也都是朝政腐败、社会动荡、民怨沸腾、反抗不断，很多都是苟延残喘、奄奄一息了。这说明，一个政权建立起来后，要保持兴旺发达、长治久安是很不容易的。如果不自省、不警惕、不努力，再强大的政权都可能走到穷途末路。

　　现在，我们党成立97年了，新中国成立69年了。苏共存在了86年，苏联存在了74年。我们党的历史超过了苏共，我们党掌握全国政权的历史还不及苏联。到本世纪中叶，我们党的历史将接近130年，新中国的历史将达到100年。邓小平同志说，“巩固和发展社会主义制度，还需要一个很长的历史阶段，需要我们几代人、十几代人，甚至几十代人坚持不懈地努力奋斗”。那是多少年？要按千年来计算。这就是说，我们要把中国特色社会主义建设好、建设成，需要一个很长的历史时期。在这个漫长历史进程中，确保中国共产党不垮、中国社会主义制度不倒，是一个极难极大的风险挑战。曾几何时，苏共何其强大，苏联何其强大，现在早已是“故国不堪回首月明中”了。一代人干一代人的事，但没有历史眼光，没有长远眼光，也干不好当下的事情。"

The first sentence of the above: The CCP has a 1000 year ambition for the Chinese people, at 100 years it is having its best of time. At the same time, I am deeply worried.
The last sentence of the above: Every generation has its own responsibility, but without a historical perspective and the long view, it cannot do its properly. In short, PRC sees time is on its side.

[stoney]

Nothing wrong in being recycling his speech as it meant to save him from repeating the same thing on the subject. Speech is also a policy speech and hence is used against the policy that is implemented. Hence, it is okay to rehash his speech in order to avoid having to make mistake of his speech made several years ago. In short, with internet, it makes life easier to repost it again and again from time to time to remind the respective audiences on the subject mentioned.

[ltlee1]

On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 4:59:38 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:39:12 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> >> ltlee1 wrote:
> >> > On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 5:29:59 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> >> >> On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:54:23 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> >> >> > And they will be very disappointed. But in the long run, the US is a non issue.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > China can wait. However, China will NEVER renounce the Responsibility to reunify
> >> >> > and the Right to reunify by force if necessary. ROC should and would do the same
> >> >> > if the situation is reversed.
> >> >> What would Taiwan do in what situation when reversed?
> >> >
> >> > Not Taiwan.
> >> > Taiwan as an independent political entity does not exists, past and
> >> > present. ROC, however, exists and it exits to benefit all Chinese for
> >> > both short and long term.
> >> > […]
> >>
> >> So what? Formally you are right.
> >> But after abandoning "One *RoC*
> >> China" RoC became Taiwan *politically*.
> >
> >
> > The ROC constitution was amended at 199 to designate Taiwan Island +
> > some small islands as the Free Area of the Republic of China. But the ROC
> > Constitution is still in force. Politically speaking, the ROC government must
> > operate according to the ROC constitution. Hence Taiwan as an independent
> > political entity does not exists, past and present, formally and operationally.
> Do you demand the change of RoC constitution?

I don't.
But those who want to change ROC into Taiwan did try to change the ROC map from
the whole of China to just Taiwan + islands. They failed.

The following is the first page of the ROC Constitution:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Republic_of_China#/media/File:1946_National_Assembly_Constitution.jpg

Among other things, it states clearly that the ROC was established for the benefits of
all people (of China.} And the sovereignty of the ROC belongs to all people (of China.)

[stoney]

ROC constitution can change. Can change to abolish and amend existing and to also install new ones, too.

[ltlee1]

Could be changed in theory just like all other constitutions.
They question is by whom?

Can New Yorkers remove the Second amendment of the US Constitution?
Can people in the "free region" of the ROC change the ROC Constitution?
New Yorkers by themselves do not constitute "We the People" of the US
People in the free region by themselves, likewise do not constitute "We the People" of the ROC.

[stoney]

US could remove by congress, or a referendum for the people. Similarly, ROC is run by DPP, which formed the majority in parliament can tender a bill for a constitutional change through passing a bill on it, or referendum on the people. Seriously, everything in law can be changed, amended, or repealed.

[A. Filip]

> ROC constitution can change. Can change to abolish and amend existing
> and to also install new ones, too.

Long lack of such changes makes me assume lack of _constitutional_ majority.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| It's better to be quotable than to be honest. (Tom Stoppard)

[ltlee1]

The US currently is consisted by 50 states. The Constitution could be changed by the people of the 50 states.
The ROC currently is consisted by two regions, the two regions. The free region and the mainland region.
DDP could not possibly change the ROC Constitution based on free region's voters alone just like New
Yorkers could not possibly change the US Constitution.

[ltlee1]

If New Yorkers vote to add "The Great state of New York will give other states X millions of dollars
each year", other states are unlikely to object. In contrast, if New Yorkers vote to add "Other will
give the state of New Yorker millions of dollars each year, majority could not effective the change.
People from other states would certainly object.

Again, the ROC exists to benefit all Chinese people per its territory, i.e. both Mainland China and
Taiwan. And the sovereignty belongs to all Chinese, both Mainland and the free region.

[A. Filip]

Translated: Internationally recognized independent Taiwan in practice
requires NEW constitution because changes in existing constitution would
be too fundamental (wide open for legal challenges).
I can quite easily agree with such assumption.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| It looked like something resembling white marble, which was
| probably what it was: something resembling white marble.
| (Douglas Adams, "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy")

[stoney]

On Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 2:45:19 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> If New Yorkers vote to add "The Great state of New York will give other states X millions of dollars
> each year", other states are unlikely to object. In contrast, if New Yorkers vote to add "Other will
> give the state of New Yorker millions of dollars each year, majority could not effective the change.
> People from other states would certainly object.
>
> Again, the ROC exists to benefit all Chinese people per its territory, i.e. both Mainland China and
> Taiwan. And the sovereignty belongs to all Chinese, both Mainland and the free region.

In US, in principle, they need one state with another to agree to effect change. It can be done in the congress of all the states. And if a new concept of constitution in the running of the president is introduced by one state or enough of states to cast a motion to debate and to a voting motion, it can work, too.

In some countries, because of their past in having unending resident tenure, they had, after their downfalls, changed to one term of 5 or 6 years only. So they just draft a new law. To set the tone for debate, and then voted by members of all states in parliament or congress, to set an new era of their presidential term to 4, 5. or even 6 years for a maximum of one term.

In past wars and dictatorships in Korea, Philippine, Vietnam, Indonesia and many countries in South America, too. Henceforth, it can be done if there is a draft bill is sent to congress to change the constitutional to be voted by all states in congress.

The same principle can go to ROC too. ROC can change its constitutional law if both parties representing the people can vote to change and decide a new constitution instead. A good example is Russia annexation of Ukraine through enforced voting and enforced annexation, too. In short, a new law is easier to vote in than amending the existing an old law.

[frodo sam0]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/xi-would-be-sinner-all-chinese-if-he-attacks-taiwan-security-official-says-2022-10-20/

The Taiwanese official does not know what he is talking about. The truth is this. If Xi were to lead China to attack Taiwan, he would only be a sinner to those Taiwan Independents (TI). These traitors of their race don’t consider themselves Chinese , anyway. Why would Chinese in the world want to side with them?


The DPP government is colluding with enemies of China. It is ever ready to offer itself for use as a pawn against China.

It is getting closer with India. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/10/12/2003786875
It will accept more Indian immigrants into Taiwan to dilute the Chinese population there. If India were to be at war with China, the DPP government would allow Taiwan to become another front against China.


When it comes to using Taiwan as a pawn, the US is the worst of the lot. The US is using all excuses and means to make Taiwan independent and separate from China. In the latest move, it is going to send staff and and weapon systems to Taiwan and co-produce US weapons in Taiwan with the DPP government.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-government-considering-joint-production-weapons-with-taiwan-nikkei-2022-10-19/


TI and its political arm DPP is pushing Taiwan towards war with China. The US is willing to get in the way of China-Taiwan Reunification. This makes war between the US and China inevitable.

Can China win a war with the US in order to reunify with Taiwan? Before this, is China ready for a war with the US?

If the war has to be fought in Asia-Pacific around China’s neighborhood, then China will lose before it even start fighting. The reasons being:
1. The US has a strong military presence in the Asia-Pacific with military bases close to China.
2. It can further project its military might across the Pacific with its aircraft carrier fleets.
3. Chinese industrial complex will be destroyed while the US’s continue to operate.
4. The US military has more war experience than China’s.

Before starting a war with the US, China should establish the following preconditions for itself.

1. military presence around US neighborhood like in the islands of the Caribbean.
2. aircraft carrier fleets which can speed towards the US.
3. weapons which can leapfrog or bypass those US rings-of-fires around China to attack the US mainland directly.

This is unlikely to happen within the next 5 years. 10 years, maybe. 20 years, more likely.

[wog wacker]

Another precondition before China goes to war with the US over Taiwan.

It should have a nuclear-capable N Korea as its friend.

China should ignore any warning or threat from the US and help N Korea to launch missile with nuclear warhead over the Pacific towards the US. If the US lodges protests over this, China should remind the US how the latter is working with nuclear-capable India against China in the Himalayan border region.

This is another step for China to prepare for war with the US over Taiwan. If this war were to breakout, the US will insist that its allies of S Korea and Japan join in against China. A China-allied nuclear-capable N Korea can be used to prevent the two allies of the US from attacking China.

[ltlee1]

China must prepare itself in case US decides to encourage/force Taiwan to declare independence.
But China is no hurry to take back Taiwan. Even if it has to use force, it certainly does not need NK
and/or the latter's nuclear weapon.

In addition, China is for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

[ltlee1]

On Saturday, October 22, 2022 at 2:13:19 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:

> China must prepare itself in case US decides to encourage/force Taiwan to declare independence.
> But China is no hurry to take back Taiwan. Even if it has to use force, it certainly does not need NK
> and/or the latter's nuclear weapon.
>
> In addition, China is for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

"繼美國國務卿布林肯兩度示警，北京當局已決定加快統一時間表，且不惜以武力改變兩岸現狀後，美國海軍軍令部長吉爾代上將19日警告，必須考慮中共可能在2023年武力犯台，美軍必須最快在今年底之前做好應變準備。美國預設的共軍武力犯台時間，較前印太司令部指揮官戴維森上將推算的2027年，一舉往前推進了3年！

針對吉爾代的推估，國安局長陳明通遙遙呼應，表示根據他的研判，2023年中共對台比較可能是「以戰逼談」，國安單位都有一定的因應措施與準備。

迄今為止，美國對北京何時對台動武的各種預測，都沒有舉出確切的證據。設若美國情報縝密、預測精準，今年2月俄國進犯烏克蘭時，美國怎會手忙腳亂？預測共軍犯台時間一改再改？從華府智庫推論的2049，改到2027，再提前到2025、2024、甚至2023？美國究竟意欲為何？

美國對中共武力犯台時程表推估的變化，並不是基於客觀的情報分析，而是基於美國與中國鬥爭所需的主觀意識，以及淘汰、去化過時軍備武器的政治遊說策略。亦即，醜化中國窮兵黷武形象，炮製台海情勢越趨緊張的假象，越有利於美國軍備擴張以及對台軍售利得，美國鷹派也就越有藉口先發制人，壓服中國的崛起，維護美國霸權地位。

台海真要爆發戰爭，始作俑者其實正是美國。至於台灣在中美鬥爭過程中是存是亡，是生是死，非關美國利益，也不在她的考慮範圍裡！"
https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20221021003487-262103?chdtv

U.S. speaks loudly from time to from on when Beijing will use force against Taiwan (i,e. The
Free Region of the ROC) but such announcements were not based on evidence. In fact, the
US has no inkling on whether the PRC will invade Taiwan and, if so, when. Hence its prediction
(or prophecy) had been changed again and again. From 2049, first suggested by a Washington
think tank, later changed to 2027, and then advanced to 2025, 2024, or even 2023? What do all
these prophecies mean?

It reflects one underlying condition. The more the PRC is getting stronger, the more the US feels
a need to use Taiwan (ROC's Free Region) as a weapon to fight against China. In addition,
talking about Chinese threat loudly would allow the US military to update its weapons. And of
course enables the US to sell more outdated weapons to the Free Region of the ROC (aka Taiwan).

If cross Taiwan Strait war really breaks out, the initiator is actually the United States.

[wog wacker]

On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 1:52:08 PM UTC, wog wacker wrote:

China doesn’t have many allies in the world which would join it in a war against the US. In Asia-Pacific, there’s only N. Korea. This is the country China should help to nuclearise.

The bigger and more immediate evil for China is not a nuclearised Korean Peninsular but a remiliarised and nuclearised Japan. Japan will nuclearise, whether N. Korea does or not. What is stopping it from doing so now is the US. But as China's power continues to grow non-stop, the day will come when the US and Japan will agree that latter should be nuclearised. This is a worse evil for China than a nuclearised Korean Peninsular.

Up till today, the Japs have expressed no regret, no remorse and no apology over its atrocious imperial rule over East- and Southeast-Asia during the last World War. Japan is working to relive its glorious days of imperialism again, this time with American assistance. Its military is constantly being upgraded by the Americans.

No doubt Japan will participate actively with the US in a war over Taiwan. The two are preparing and practising for that day. A military exercise of 36,000 soldiers and 370 military planes over the Taiwan Straits has been announced. This is the size of an invading force! Will this be an exercise or a preemptive strike or "special military operation" against China?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKTj0YViBtg

China should not hesitate to help N. Korea to develop all sorts of missiles which can reach Japan and the US; conventional and nuclear, ballistic and cruise, submarine- and aircraft-launched.

[ltlee1]

China and North Korea are already bound by the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation
Friendship Treaty. However, Taiwan is internal Chinese affairs. It would not want foreign involvement.

Currently, China still wants to repair Sino-US relation. It would not assist Russia's military effort. It
certainly would not help N Korea to develop missiles, nuclear as well as non-nuclear tipped.

Korean Peninsular with nuclear weapon per se is not that great a problem. But it gives the US the excuse
not to leave North East Asia. Results: Japan cannot be a normal independent country and will be
subservient to the US indefinitely. More important, China, Korea, and Japan's historical problems are not
going to be resolved by nuclear weapons.

I have not followed on the new South Korean government. Nevertheless, with Russia and the US focusing
on the Ukrainian battlefield. And all the talks about imminent Sino-US clash over Taiwan at the same time.
It is a window of opportunity for the two Koreans to negotiate for a peace treaty. MAY be the US would
agree this time. Biden could then chalk up another achievement for his re-election bid.

The PRC and the Free Region of the ROC are still at loggerheads. But the movement of people and goods
are quite free. Greater freedom of people and goods between the two Koreans would certainly improve N
Korea's condition as well as mutual understanding between the two Koreans.

[stoney]

Totally agreed.

[ltlee1]

"雖然涉台論述是中共二十大報告中最受關注的議題之一，但和往常一樣，它在整個報告中是排名倒數的章節。從內容看，二十大報告的涉台論述基本上是複述既有的大政方針，並無多少新意。報告的最大亮點應該是宣布了新時代新征程中國共產黨的中心任務，那就是「以中國式現代化全面推進中華民族偉大復興。」鑒於報告重申「解決台灣問題、實現祖國完全統一…是實現中華民族偉大復興的必然要求」，因此台灣問題就和中共的中心任務掛鉤了。很顯然，如果統一遲遲沒有到來，無論是全面建成社會主義現代化強國，還是實現中華民族偉大復興，都會黯然失色。

但另一方面，台灣問題攸關中共的中心任務，並不代表解決台灣問題就是大陸的優先考量。報告明確指出，「高品質發展是全面建設社會主義現代化國家的首要任務」。與之相映成趣的是，報告形容解決台灣問題是中共的「歷史任務」。事實上，不管是詳述未來5年的目標任務，還是展望2035年的總體目標，報告都沒有提到「台灣」或者「統一」2字，也就是說中共解決台灣問題並沒有具體的時間表，至少不是當務之急。在中共的施政藍圖中，一切工作都要緊緊圍繞中心任務，抓住主要矛盾。解決台灣問題、實現祖國完全統一同樣也要服從和服務於中心任務，不能不顧大局，本末倒置。

更重要的是，儘管「武統」話題最具吸睛效應，但習近平也重申「我們堅持以最大誠意、盡最大努力爭取和平統一的前景。」換言之，武力這個選項雖不能排除，但大陸肯定不會輕啟戰端。面對美國和民進黨政府的輪番挑釁，北京既敢於鬥爭，也強調善於鬥爭，也就是要保持戰略定力，不可急躁冒進，更不能逞一時之快。至於街談巷議的2027年「武統」時間表，正如軍事專家張競質疑的，「國際上有任何重大武裝衝突的爆發時間，是配合某個政府領袖或黨政高層因任期限制之去留，或搭配某個重要歷史事件周年紀念，作為發動戰爭倒數計時之參考座標？」

不管美國人怎樣煽風點火，台海和平的視窗並沒有關閉。台灣人一定要利用好這段寶貴的時間，政治家有責任與對岸展開對話，至少要防止北京對和平統一的前景徹底絕望；企業家要抓住大陸高品質發展的機遇，深度參與中國式現代化；民眾固然人微言輕，但身為中華民族一分子，也完全可以爭取在中華民族偉大復興進程中有所作為。"

https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20221022003076-262104?chdtv

In fact, whether it is detailing the targeted tasks for the next five years or looking forward to the overall goal of 2035, the report does not mention the words "Taiwan" or "unification", which means that the CCP does not have any concrete timetable. Resolving the Taiwan issue is at least not considered a priority. In the CCP's blueprint for governance, all work must tightly follow the central task surrounding the main contradiction. Solving the Taiwan issue and realizing the complete reunification of the motherland must also obey and serve the central task. We cannot ignore the overall situation and put the cart before the horse.

[stoney]

All these not on tasks and agendas are falsehoods of trashes into thinking there is nothing will happen. It is easier to sit and think and write narratives that are not going to work. The fact is real and is not the same as tasks and priority. Seriously, what is to drink tomorrow must be prepared now in ahead of time. Even then, ahead of time can be too late, too. What is needed is to have a highly competent team of leaders to put down a high agenda to have their plans ready into actions at anytime. That means there should be at 60 millions of highly trained and highly mobilised assets to be flexibly ready at anytime with a capable fitness to handle all kinds of actions.

[ltlee1]

It is certainly your freedom to disagree.

But please pay more attention to the article to make sure you understand the article enough to disagree meaningfully.
For example, you wrote "It is easier to sit and think and write narratives that are not going to work."
What are these narratives that are not going to work?

More central to Chinatimes.com (ROC) writer's argument is this:
What is the main contradiction according to China/CCP leaders?

[paul polikos]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/10/24/as-russia-gets-weaker-xi-jinping-may-forgo-taiwan-to-grab-eastern-russia/?sh=2b6faea66ce4

Summary of the above article:
China is all about expansionism.
Taiwan is its latest target.
Russia is being weakened by the war in Ukraine.
China should consider the Russian Far East region its for expansion.
This would be an easier grab than Taiwan.


Should China take advantage of a weakening Russia and prepare itself to grab part of the Russian Far East?

The world is in a Romance of Three superpowers - US, China, Russia.

Right now, US and Russia are enemies due to Ukraine. US considers a rising China its long term threat and enemy, one which will be worse than Russia.

Russia is China’s big and nuclear-powered neighbor to the north. The US, though geographically far away across the Pacific, has a much more powerful military presence in the neighborhood of China. Moreover the US has the might to attract China’s neighbors near and far to form alliances against China. Example, the QUAD of US, India, Japan and Australia. Mongolia is another next door neighbor of China the US is trying hard to court.

Right now and in the near future, the US and its allies which are neighbors of China collectively form the immediate grave threat to China. It would be unwise of China to make another enemy out of Russia, a big and powerful next door neighbor. That would be a strategic disaster for China.

Instead of ignoring Taiwan and shifting focus to Russia’s Far East, it would be better strategy for China to assist Russia in Ukraine now and receive Russian assistance in return later to combat Taiwan Independence and Separation.

If Russia were to side with US against China, China would be finished. At the moment it looks unlikely due to Russia’s war in Ukraine against NATO. One can never tell how this will change. Before this, Russia has wanted to join the EU and NATO. It was the US narrow-mindedness that had prevented this. It was afraid that it would lose its dominance over the EU and NATO. The war in Ukraine may change all these. To prevent the war from escalating towards a nuclear one, which would weaken US, Europe and Russia, and catapult China to the top of them all, US and Europe may be willing to sacrifice Ukraine to make peace with Russia. After this, it will be US against China one-to-one or worse, a US aligned with Russia against China.


Look at the map of Russia’s Far East.
https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=russian+far+east+map&biw=960&bih=432&ei=8p1YY-ykCrDxz7sPw5et2Ao&oq="russian+far+east"&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYAjIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwA0oECE0YAUoECEEYAEoECEYYAFAAWABgnxxoAXABeACAAQCIAQCSAQCYAQDIAQjAAQE&sclient=gws-wiz

What China needs most is a way out to the Sea of Japan. This would allow it to project its naval power to the northern part of Japan and have a shorter sea route to the Arctic as well as the US northern Pacific coast. It’s only a few year back, after much negotiations with North Korea, that China was allowed to access a part of North Korea to enter the Sea of Japan. This is not good enough. If China were to help Russia win in Ukraine, it can negotiate with Russia for a bigger slice of land to access the Sea of Japan. This would be easier and less risky than trying to grab a large piece of Russia’s Far East.


It’s a wrong strategy for China to forget about Taiwan and instead seek an opportunity to seize Russian land in the Far East from a Russia weakened by the war in Ukraine. Its better to assist Russia in Ukraine in return for Russia’s assistance to fight against the US-and-allies over Taiwan.

[ltlee1]

Looks like the Forbes.com writer is posting a scenario.
Not impossible but highly unlikely.

>
>
> Should China take advantage of a weakening Russia and prepare itself to grab part of the Russian Far East?
>
> The world is in a Romance of Three superpowers - US, China, Russia.
>
> Right now, US and Russia are enemies due to Ukraine. US considers a rising China its long term threat and enemy, one which will be worse than Russia.
>
> Russia is China’s big and nuclear-powered neighbor to the north. The US, though geographically far away across the Pacific, has a much more powerful military presence in the neighborhood of China. Moreover the US has the might to attract China’s neighbors near and far to form alliances against China. Example, the QUAD of US, India, Japan and Australia. Mongolia is another next door neighbor of China the US is trying hard to court.
>
> Right now and in the near future, the US and its allies which are neighbors of China collectively form the immediate grave threat to China. It would be unwise of China to make another enemy out of Russia, a big and powerful next door neighbor. That would be a strategic disaster for China.
>
> Instead of ignoring Taiwan and shifting focus to Russia’s Far East, it would be better strategy for China to assist Russia in Ukraine now and receive Russian assistance in return later to combat Taiwan Independence and Separation.

Russia will not side with the US unless it is considered an equal partner.
Too many US leaders have written Russia off as defeated because of US system
superiority. Russia is allowed to recuperate it strength because of US generosity
and because it had adopted the US way. Russia under Putin is ungrateful and
paranoid.

Whether Russia adopts the US system, it is unlikely to be treated as an equal
partner.

[dosai prata]

On Friday, October 21, 2022 at 1:29:31 AM UTC, frodo sam0 wrote:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan


Its a war of China against US-Taiwan-Japan. China is predicted to lose. This is not surprising. It's a wrong place and time for China.

China is not likely to win a war against US-Taiwan-Japan if the theater of war is in Asia-Pacific. In Asia-Pacific, US military might has a heavy presence in close proximity to China. China is surrounded by US military bases some of which are in China's next-door neighbors. Already, US aircraft carriers can sail as close to China as the Taiwan Straits, unmolested. Its surveillance planes can fly close to the Chinese coast, again unmolested. Not forgetting that the current US nuclear arsenal is several times larger than that of China.

This war game is unrealistic. It misses a very significant participant – India. The US would definitely pull in India in a Asia-Pacific War. It has prepared for this by imagining a continuous ocean from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and call it the Indo-Pacific. Through this ruse, India, though not a Pacific nation, can get itself involve in Pacific affairs. If war were to breakout between China and US-Taiwan-Japan, the US would push India to start another front at its Himalayan border with China. The US will be disappointed. Cunning Indians would know how to play the game right. India would join in by its own accord and timing. It would wait until it is convinced that China has been thoroughly beaten and too weak to mount a counter-attack against it.


The Asia-Pacific is not the right place, and now is not the right time, for a China against US-Taiwan-Japan War.

Would China want to attack Taiwan now? US is the deciding factor. If China can take on the US alone, that will change the whole game.
When can China take on the US alone?
1) It has achieved nuclear parity with the US or sufficiently close to it. From the Russia-Ukraine War, we can see how important this is for China. The US dare not get itself directly involve in the war because of Russia's nuclear might.
2) Chinese military might can reach closed to mainland USA.Chinese have military bases close to the US mainland. Chinese aircraft carrier and submarine fleets can exercise their "freedom-of-navigation" along both coasts of the US.
3) Chinese nuclear-tipped missiles can cover the whole of the US mainland from coast-to-coast.

Under this condition,
Taiwan Independents would not be pushing for Independence.
Most Chinese in Taiwan would opt for unity with China.
It would scare off Japan and India too.
In this way, China can avoid a war with the US-Taiwan-Japan without having to fire a single shot.


If there is no war, who will reap a higher dividend-of-peace, the Americans or the Chinese? Without war, China will continue its meteoric rise until it surpasses the US.
The Americans know this - in peace China will win and in war China will lose. This is why the Americans are trying hard to push China into a trap of war. They are trying all sorts of dirty tricks. 'China Threat', 'Chinese Expansionism', 'China the regional bully', Chinese might-makes-right mentality', and other cliches and slogans are being used to demonise China and create Sinophobia among China's neighbors, especially those which have territorial disputes with China. These are convinced to militarise feverishly, with American weapons of course. Foremost in the Americans mind of dirty tricks right now is Taiwan.


The Americans are failing in pragmatism like economic development. They are selling their values to compete with China. Will the Chinese in Taiwan forget their common root, ancestry and 5000 years of history with the mainland Chinese and join in with non-Chinese to fight against their fellow Chinese? All these over some voodoo values of Western-style democracy, unbridled freedom and wanton human rights?

Ukraine today is providing a valuable lesson to the Chinese in Taiwan. The Chinese in Taiwan should ask themselves how Ukraine end up in the pathetic state that it is now. The lesson from Ukraine is crystal clear. There is no ambiguity. It is this:
The Ukrainians were fooled by the Westerners to forget their common Slavic root, ancestry and long history with the Russians. They allow Ukraine to be used by non-Slavic powers to threaten the security of Russia. The Ukrainians are paying a very heavy price for it. They are suffering massive deaths and destruction. They have become cannon fodders in a proxy war between the West and Russia. It's not over yet. No one knows how long and how much more the Ukrainians will have to suffer.
The Chinese in Taiwan should learn the right lessons they are getting from the Ukrainian. Westerners are using the war in Ukraine as reasons why Taiwan should fiercely resist mainland China invasion and become independent.
https://www.ft.com/content/187c3c2f-97b2-4abe-982e-8dfba86cecec

Will the majority of Chinese in Taiwan be foolish enough to let the Westerners and their Taiwan Independents dogs lead them to the same fate as the Ukrainians are in now? Will they too suffer like the Ukrainians do now? It all depends on them.

[wog wacker]

> Will the majority Chinese in Taiwan be foolish enough to let the Westerners and their Taiwan Independents dogs lead them to the same fate as the Ukrainians are in now? Will they too suffer like the Ukrainians do now? It all depends on them.

Watch this video of the CSIS Conference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoZv_7KYMkA

1:16:15 A member of the audience, referring to the cost of the war in Ukraine, suggested diplomacy with China.
The mic was taken away from her. Where is the freedom of speech?

1:17:40 One guy referred to 2027 as the 100th anniversary of PRC. None of the speakers corrected him. This shows how ignorant Americans are about China.

Ordinary Americans are generally ignorant about China and only know that country through their media.The media is feeding them with misinformation, half-truth and fake news about China. As a result, the whole of US is engulfed in hatred and phobia towards China. Any American who suggests friendliness towards China is shut-up. This makes war between the two nations more likely.

[jim gavon]

President Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Taiwan Independents’ DPP will visit the US soon. Preempting her, Ma Yingjeou, ex-President of Taiwan and ex-leader of the KMT , is visiting China.

There is a deep contrast between these two visits. It’s that of War and Peace. While Tsai is on a mission of War, Ma is on a mission of Peace. There is also a deep contrast to who and what these two politicians from Taiwan represent.

Tsai Ing-wen represents those Chinese in Taiwan, so called Taiwan Independents, who want to forget their Chinese ancestry, history and culture. They want to identify themselves as belonging to a new race of Taiwanese who have adopted Western-style ideologies of democracy, freedom and human rights. In the name of these, they are prepared to go to war to kill and destroy their fellow Chinese on the Mainland.


Ma Yingjeou represents those Chinese in Taiwan who never forget the common ancestry, history and culture they share with the Chinese on the Mainland. While in China, he has visited the mausoleum of Dr. Sun Yat Sen whom all Chinese recognise as the Father of Modern China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s088-WzGiI

This is most symbolic of Chinese history over the last 100 years. It was ideology that caused the Chinese Kuomintang and Communists to fight and kill themselves massively until it brought about the partition of Mainland China and Taiwan, separated by a straits. Despite such unfortunate history, both sides recognise the same Founder and never forget that the Mainland and the Island of Taiwan together form One China and the people are of the same stock. Now, they are ready to reconcile their differences. They want to put aside ideologies, remember their common ancestry, history and culture and work towards Peace.

But evil forces are at work to prevent this from happening. Since the 1990s, the Americans have fomented independence and separatism among the Taiwanese. These so called Taiwan Independents are indoctrinated, organised, armed and supported by the US-led West to fight for independence and separation of the island from the mainland. Their political arm is the Democratic Progressive Party which runs the current government in Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen is their current leader and the President of Taiwan.

On her visit to the US, Tsai Ing-wen will confer with American politicians and militarists. The politicians will advise her on how to confront the Mainland Government and expand Taiwan’s space in the international political arena while the militarists will advise her on how to prepare for war. More precisely, how she will have to prepare Taiwan as a proxy in the coming US War With China.

2024 will be a decisive year for US, China, Taiwan and the whole world. It will be an election year in both Taiwan and the US, with the one in Taiwan proceeding first. If the DPP were to win in Taiwan, the chances of War will be much increased. When this happens, it will not be only US and Taiwan against China. It will be US-led Coalition of Western and Asia-Pacific allies against China and its allies. If , by that time the war in Ukraine has not ended, the number and geographical coverage of the nations involved in wars will make it a World War 3.

[ltlee1]

US cannot effectively compete with China (PRC), it badly want to use ROC to compete with China.
Hence, it stirs things up to put stress on PRC-ROC relationship. Ma's trip is to de-stress. And hopefully
find a way to improve bilateral relationship.

Don't think 2024 would be decisive.
The way I see it, voting should be considered harmful in general. However, 2024 election in Taiwan
would not really break the “不统、不独、不武” framework anytime soon. PRC leaders would never
give up using force but will continue to kick the can down the road as long as possible. Green ROC
leaders would continue to repeat their "抗中保台" election slogan under the implicit “不统、不独、不武”
framework.

[ltlee1]

無奈綠營政治人物總是「選舉掛帥」，令人感到遺憾。

"蔡總統希望這次過境外交，能為她的任期畫下完美的句點。不可否認，在她執政這段期間，台美關係無論在形式和實質方面，都獲得了長足的進展；但我們必須認清的是，
台美關係的水漲船高，「得力於」中美關係的每況愈下。至少，對岸的解讀認為，是因台灣充當美國圍堵中國大陸的「棋子」，甚至是為了「倚美謀獨」。

美國在台協會（ＡＩＴ）前理事主席卜睿哲（Richard Bush）在日前的一場研討會上表示，兩岸近期爆發戰爭的可能性很低，但仍可能發生軍事衝突，其中一個降低衝突風
險的方式，是向北京保證、使其相信台灣不會越過紅線。他認為馬總統成功做到這一點，而蔡英文總統嘗試消除疑慮，但中國顯然不願意與蔡政府共存。

對岸不可能對蔡總統過境外交視而不見，而馬總統此行即使不講政治，但對大陸釋出的和平善意卻是盡在不言中。民共缺乏互信，從卜睿哲的觀點看，蔡英文做不到的地方，
馬英九可以做到；換言之，馬此行應可沖淡近期兩岸關係受到的衝擊。

「家必自毀，而後人毀之」。外交和大陸政策攸關台灣的生存與發展，朝野本應為此建立共識；無奈綠營政治人物總是因「選舉掛帥」，對馬總統此行說三道四，甚至吐一
些
「語不驚人死不休」的話，令人感到遺憾。

中美關係目前呈現從競爭走向對抗的趨勢，雙方都聲稱要避免衝突，但隨時會有擦槍走火的危險，台海就有可能成為一個「引爆點」。中共視台灣問題為「核心利益」，美
國視其為「關鍵利益」，台灣如捲入其中，就必須認清兩者有「輕重」之別。如果台灣有人拿「疑美論」大作文章，終會顧此失彼，落至「人為刀俎，我為魚肉」的下場。
（作者為淡江大學中國大陸研究所榮譽教授）"
https://udn.com/news/story/7340/7058321?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub7340_pulldownmenu_v2

[jim gavon]

On Tuesday, March 28, 2023 at 6:45:02 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:

2027 is the year that China has set itself to reunify with Taiwan.

This is being taken very seriously by the US. In preparation for this, the US, together with some of its Asia-Pacific allies, has already begun to set up the military might around China.

Whichever party wins the 2024 Presidential Election, its term will overlap 2027. By then, a DPP government that insists on independence will highly increase the risk of war with China.

2027 may not be reached before war breaks out. Once the DPP wins in 2024, the US-led side will rapidly ramp up its military aid to Taiwan and its military might around China. This may provoke China to start the war.

That is why 2024 is a critical year.

The saving grace to all these will be a KMT victory in the Election. This will highly increase the chances of peaceful reunification.

[jim gavon]

On Tuesday, March 28, 2023 at 1:11:22 PM UTC, jim gavon wrote:

Ma Yingjeou visited the memorial for those victims of the Nanjing Massacre carried out by the Japs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07ebyhvvTJY


Japs colonised Taiwan for fifty years from 1895 to 1945. It carried out a full-scale invasion of Mainland China on 7/7/1937. Millions of Chinese suffered massacres, mass rapes and most heinous atrocities under Japs Imperial Rule. No Chinese should forget that.

But not those Taiwan Independents. First they would shed their Chinese identity and morph into a new race of Taiwanese which means that that part of Chinese history has nothing to do with them. Next, they will collaborate with the Japs to fight against China.

The Japs are preparing for this. The American obsession with the Chinese Threat has blinded them to a worse Japanese Threat. The Americans are encouraging the Japs to remilitarise. The Japs are in high heaven over this. They see it as a chance to

1. redeem the honor of their nation’s defeat during WW2 when Japs become the first nation and race of people to be nuked and
2. become an Imperial Power again, maybe even Global Superpower.

The Japs have torn up their Pacifist Constitution and tossed it to the wind. Japan can now mount external military missions against other nations again, just like Imperial Japan during WW2. The Japs have vowed to defend Taiwan against China. The Taiwan Independents are prepared to ally with Japan, US and allies to fight against China, even if that means an invasion of the Mainland.

These Taiwan Independents form a grave threat to China. The Chinese may not have the luxury to wait till 2027 to bring the Taiwan issue to a decisive end.

[ltlee1]

Just on your say so?

America's very successful PRESIDENT FOR LIFE had popularized the idea
of "speak softly and carry a big stick." Chinese leaders would certainly think
similarly. But then 2027, 2072 or 2023 will make no difference.

>
> This is being taken very seriously by the US. In preparation for this, the US, together with some of its Asia-Pacific allies, has already begun to set up the military might around China.

Being taken very seriously by the US means . . . ? ? ?

[jim gavon]

After visiting Dr. Sun Yat Sen mausoleum and the war memorial in Nanjing, Ma Yingjeou paid homage to his ancestry in Hunan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn90f6E6AxA

He has also stated openly that people on both sides of the strait are all Chinese belonging to one family.

These are all symbolic. He is telling the world that people on both sides of the strait share a common history, ancestry and root.

Meanwhile, leader of the Taiwan Independents, Tsai Ing-wen is in the US to deny all these. She is working with American politicians and militarists on how to have an independent Taiwan separated from China, a people without root, only knowing how to ape the West in values.

These Taiwan Independents are completely without human values.

[ltlee1]

Don't think so.
He is consistent. And he is a true believer and a follower of the ROC Constitution.

>
> Meanwhile, leader of the Taiwan Independents, Tsai Ing-wen is in the US to deny all these. She is working with American politicians and militarists on how to have an independent Taiwan separated from China, a people without root, only knowing how to ape the West in values.
>
> These Taiwan Independents are completely without human values.

Unless one indiscriminately hates China and Chinese, otherwise he or she
would be more discerning and not labeling all Taiwan leaders as Taiwan
Independents and not calling all Taiwan Independents without human
values as a mean to sow hatred among Chinese and misunderstanding
among non-Chinese.

[jim gavon]

Taiwan ex-President Ma Yingjeou walked the night streets of Changsha. Huge crowds greeted him with “Hello, Mr. Ma. Welcome Home”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtQvNvl7J_E


This shows people on both sides of the strait consider themselves to be of one family. They would want to live peacefully and happily together. But this is not what the Westerners wish to see. Instead they want to see hostilities between the people on both sides of the strait until war breaks out between them. For this, they have indoctrinated some in Taiwan, the Taiwan Independents, to become independent and separated from China and to look upon Chinese as the enemies to be destroyed.

These Westerners belittle politics based on relationships as Identity Politics and degrade them as primitive Tribalism. Instead they belief their versions of democracy, freedom and human rights are the modern way to go.

The people in Taiwan should look at the living example of Ukraine. Under Western influence, the Slavs in Ukraine disregard their common history, ancestry and root with the Slavs in Russia. They are convinced, in the name of democracy, freedom and human rights, to fight and kill the Russians as enemies. As a result, the Ukrainians are suffering massive death and destruction, with no end in sight. While the Ukrainians suffer horribly, the Westerners, especially the Americans, are making tons of money by providing arms and “advice” to the Ukrainians.

Taiwanese should kick those Taiwan Independents out of power and out of Taiwan before the island end up as Ukraine.

[ltlee1]

Ma's greatest contribution is that he reminded the world that that both the PRC and the ROC have considered both sides
of the Strait the two regions of One China and One people.

https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20230410000018-262110?chdtv
"馬英九在湖南大學的演講，是以法學論點角度來闡明兩岸關係，他表示除了《中華民國憲法》
在1997年增修時將中國分成自由地區與大陸地區兩個部分，另外在《台灣地區與大陸地區人
民關係條例》第2條中，清清楚楚的定義何謂台灣地區、何謂大陸地區，台灣地區是指台灣、
澎湖、金門、馬祖，大陸地區是指台灣地區以外之中華民國領土。
...
馬英九說出「兩岸同屬一個中國」，絕對不僅止於自嗨或自我感覺良好。對於一向追求
「祖國統一」的中共而言，只要能夠完成兩岸早日統一，在任何可以促進統一的形式上都有
討論空間，如今馬英九提出中華民國憲法框架下的「兩岸同屬一個中國」，對於中共來說，
正與「兩岸統一」的終極目標一拍即合，至於要用什麼方式、制度或模式可以留到之後再談。

此外，馬英九也擁護著兩岸關係發展的定海神針「九二共識」，馬英九及國民黨對於九二
共識的詮釋為「兩岸都承認只有一個中國（中華民國），但各自表述」（一中各表），但
中共對於九二共識的看法為「世界上只有一個中國，中華人民共和國政府是代表全中國的
唯一合法政府，台灣是中國領土不可分割的一部分」（一個中國原則）。"

[ltlee1]

And for those journalists who write about China and an independent Taiwan not part of China
ignoring the ROC Constitution, they are writing fictions.

[ltlee1]

I am surprised that the PRC has yet to make knowing part of the PRC and the ROC Constitution
as a prerequisite for the privilege for practicing journalism inside China.

[frodo sam0]

the DPP's candidate for the coming Taiwan Presidential Election is visiting the US. This is the usual practice in the past. All Presidential candidates have visited the US. Why? To be anointed by the US President as Taiwan's next President. This shows how beholden Taiwanese leadership is to the US.
The KMT should not follow suit. It will instead use the visit against the DPP in the campaign.

[jim gavon]

The Taiwan National Election will be coming in a few months time.

Taiwanese voters should open their eyes wide to see what is happening in Ukraine and Gaza.

They should ask themselves this: Which Party will lead them to Peace which will bring Progress and Prosperity and which Party will lead them to War which will bring Deaths and Destruction.