台海風雲詭譎下的民意（施正鋒）
ltlee1
針對國家未來統一或獨立的態度，希望盡快獨立的微幅下降，期待維持現狀以後再獨立的顯著減少，加起來占了3成；至於盡快或伺機統一的加起來1成，或許是樓地板。整體看來，贊成永久維持現狀的略微成長，還是有過半民意的支持。雖然有2/3的台灣選民對中國政府印象不好，然而，卻有將近6成對中國民眾印象不錯，或許這是兩岸和平的切入點。
有關於中國是否會躍為世界第一強國，看好（近5成）與看壞（過4成）儼然雙峰對峙。令人好奇的是，擔心中國國力越來越強的雖然逐年增加（1/3多一點），不擔心的雖然稍微降低，卻大致徘徊6成上下。我們回頭檢視影響兩岸關係的因素，向美軍購的重要性還不如媒體或政客的操弄，或許在台灣人的認知中，主觀因素（立場）重於客觀條件（軍火）。
今年最大的變動是國際局勢，也就是打了半年多的俄烏戰爭。拜登上台後毫不猶豫撤軍，令人質疑美國對於盟友的承諾，今年，大家思考的則是老美是否要把台灣俄羅斯化，也就是用來弱化或拖垮中國。因此，從美國眾議院議長裴洛西及參眾兩院議員絡繹於途訪台，來者是客，不清楚究竟是跟白宮演雙簧、還是扮演採購說客，難說見義勇為或趁火打劫。
至於大張旗鼓的《台灣政策法》，到底是美國對台政策試圖改弦更張為戰略清晰，還只是象徵意義大於實質助力的棒棒糖？畢竟，阿富汗被歐巴馬列為重要非北約盟邦，終究還不是棄之如敝屣？同樣地，我們國家又不是沒有錢，在川普時代予取予求，拜登的戰略、戰術並未明朗化，不用說軍事作戰，而不對稱作戰更是語焉不詳，難不成，融資、無償只是應付新的軍火掮客？
必須關注的是，中國近日宣布九二共識只有「一個中國」、沒有「各自表述」，直言中華民國就是台獨，不再有任何模糊的空間，朝野政黨已無任何迴避的空間。就美國人而言，台灣只不過是《台灣關係法》下的自治個體，獨立與否並不重要。對於台灣人來說，中國逼自己擁抱妾身不明的地位，百般無奈。如何說服中國心悅誠服，獨立的台灣或許有助成就仁者為王的大國？"
https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220920005016-262110?chdtv
pzo
"Exploring the factors that have caused tension between the two sides, Taiwan's independence is still the target of public criticism, but it is worth noting that it has dropped significantly. It is the involvement of foreign forces that suddenly rises to second place, and the people are worried about the role of the United States. Next The DPP is to blame, and it is no wonder that President Tsai Ing-wen's satisfaction with handling the cross-strait performance has dropped sharply. What the common people find difficult to resolve is China's continued military threat and unwillingness to give up reunification, far more than the abstract 1992 consensus or sovereignty disputes. Upset.
Regarding the country's attitude towards reunification or independence in the future, those who hope to become independent as soon as possible will decrease slightly, and those who expect to maintain the status quo and then become independent will decrease significantly, which together account for 30%. Overall, the slight growth in favor of perpetuating the status quo is still supported by more than half of the public. Although two-thirds of Taiwanese voters have a bad impression of the Chinese government, nearly 60% have a good impression of the Chinese people. Perhaps this is the entry point for cross-strait peace.
Regarding whether China will become the world's largest power, optimistic (nearly 50%) and bad (over 40%) are like two peaks confrontation. Curiously, those who are worried about China's growing national strength are increasing year by year (a little more than 1/3), and those who are not worried are slightly decreasing, but they hover around 60%. Let's look back at the factors that affect cross-strait relations. The importance of purchasing the US military is not as important as the manipulation by the media or politicians. Perhaps in the perception of Taiwanese, subjective factors (position) are more important than objective conditions (arms).
The biggest change this year is the international situation, that is, the Russian-Ukrainian war that has been fought for more than half a year. After Biden took office, he did not hesitate to withdraw its troops, which made people question the commitment of the United States to its allies. This year, everyone is thinking about whether the old and the United States want to Russify Taiwan, that is, to weaken or bring down China. Therefore, from the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and members of the Senate and House of Representatives, they are visiting Taiwan on their way. It is not clear whether they are acting as a double reed with the White House or as a procurement lobbyist.
As for the much fanfare "Taiwan Policy Act", is it an attempt by the United States to change its policy toward Taiwan to a clear strategy, or is it just a lollipop with more symbolic meaning than real help? After all, Afghanistan is listed as an important non-NATO ally by Obama, after all, is it still not abandoned? Similarly, our country is not without money. In the Trump era, Biden's strategy and tactics are not clear, not to mention military operations, and asymmetric operations are even more vague. Arms broker?
It must be noted that China recently announced that the 1992 Consensus has only "one China" and no "separate expressions". It bluntly stated that the Republic of China is Taiwan independence. There is no longer any room for ambiguity, and there is no room for political and opposition parties to evade. As far as Americans are concerned, Taiwan is nothing more than an autonomous entity under the Taiwan Relations Act, and it does not matter whether it is independent or not. For Taiwanese, China has no choice but to force itself to embrace the status of unknown concubines. How to convince China that an independent Taiwan might help achieve a great country where the benevolent is king? "
https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220920005016-262110?chdtv
Make no mistake, Biden is trying to "sniff and shake" and dance around like a evasive prancing dancer hopping "to and fro" and moving in "ebb and flow" through some incremental actions in order to change the ambiguity of the one China policy.
Some evil actions he is doing is in every step of the way towards in increasing the heavy arms supports and even military deployment and political intrusion into working with the evil Tsai of Taiwan leader in government to fight China.
ltlee1
But then the article was written for Taiwanese consumption, the author would be careful not to misrepresent
the results.
Most questions and answers are kind of expected. Concern about foreign involvement is not. It had suddenly
became an issue second only to TI in this poll. Clearly, the people were worrying on what role the US was
playing. To the average people in Taiwan, Pelosi' uninvited visit gave them zero benefit but a lot heartache.
Anyway, the people of Taiwan are waking up to the self-styled US police. Whatever it does, how to benefit the
US and/or its position as a global hegemon are its first concern. Everything else is secondary.
ltlee1
The last paragraph is too pessimistic.
The PRC of course would insist on its view of ONE China. No reason not to.
It is totally up to the ROC to present itself as another ONE China. But then it
must have Chinese heart and soul by taking the ROC Constitution serially,
Are ROC leadership working hard to benefit all Chinese now? Or do they
care only their grip on power over a small, and seperate domain while hiding
behind US military. This is Zero China. And this ROC has nothing to express.
On the last question, the answer is clear: 临渊羡鱼,不如退而结网. Its leaders have
to demonstrate to the Chinese people ROC is still existing to benefit all Chinese
people. Act as a different ONE CHINA caring all Chinese and it will be viewed as
ONE CHINA differently expressed.