Many views on China, U.S., but fates undetermined

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Many views on China, U.S., but fates undetermined
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/04/08/BUDH1O001B.DTL&ao=all
Andrew S. Ross, Chronicle Columnist

Sunday, April 8, 2012

So much for the charm offensive.

One of the aims of the organization that sponsored my recent trip to
China, the China-United States Exchange Foundation, is to "further
improve communications and enhance understanding between the peoples
of China and the United States." The sentiment, echoed by references
to "people-to-people diplomacy" and how the two countries and their
respective governments should work together, were repeated often by
Chinese officials and others I met there.

But if a report published in both countries last week is any guide,
Chinese leaders' understanding of the relationship doesn't need any
more enhancing.

For starters, China "has ascended to be a first-class global power,"
while America is "heading for decline," according to the Chinese co-
author of the report, "Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust,"
published by the Brookings Institution and the Center for
International and Strategic Studies of Peking University. Overall,
America is "on the wrong side of history," according to the report
(available at sfg.ly/Htetw2).

Further, the Chinese co-author of the report writes, "America's
democracy promotion agenda is understood in China as designed to
sabotage the Communist Party's leadership." The Obama administration's
pivot toward Asia, its policies toward Korea, Iran and Syria, plus
"various protectionist measures" directed at China, "reflect the
suspicion that they are based on injustice and narrow U.S. self-
interest."

U.S. discounted

All in all, the United States shouldn't be taken too seriously,
Beijing is said to believe. It's no longer "that awesome, nor is it
trustworthy, and its example to the world and admonitions to China
should therefore be much discounted."

That section of the report was written by Wang Jisi, dean of Peking
University's School of International Studies. A sometime professor at
the Peoples Liberation Army's National Defense University, Wang is
also an adviser to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a former
academic director at the Central Party School of the Communist Party
in Beijing.

In other words, the man seems to be well connected. Certainly, the
views he highlights can be found in Chinese media, including on the
Internet, and within some government circles and the liberation army.

To what extent they reflect the collective wisdom of China's leaders
is more debatable. It's difficult to see how such views would work for
China as it becomes increasingly enmeshed with America and moves to a
more market-oriented economy. Maybe everyone was on their best
behavior (or maybe I was brainwashed, as one reader has suggested),
but I did not encounter such views in my conversations with Chinese
people, both inside and outside government, during my 10-day trip
there.

Government officials and others with ties to the government whom I met
would bristle at the subject of imprisoned dissidents. And they are
clearly put off by U.S. complaints, filed with the World Trade
Organization, about China's trading practices.

"We are responsible members of the WTO, and I'm surprised that China
is criticized for not observing the rules. I have to ask, are they WTO
rules or U.S. rules they're complaining about," said a senior ministry
of commerce official in an otherwise amiable conversation.

U.S. officials beg to differ on this one. In a speech last month,
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called China a "selective
stakeholder" in matters ranging from bilateral trade to international
affairs involving Asia and the Middle East. "In some forums, on some
issues, China wants to be treated as a great power; in others, as a
developing nation," she said.

A Western diplomat in Beijing put it more bluntly. "They obey the
rules when they want to, and don't when they don't," said the
diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "By and large, we
would let it go when China was growing. Now, our policy, you might
say, is to challenge them on it."

Sunny view

In general, however, U.S. policymakers have a sunnier view of the
relationship, according to the Brookings report. "Strategic distrust
of China is not the current dominant view," it says. Rather, "China's
rise can bring many positive developments," so long as it "becomes a
responsible major power that respects agreements and international
rules."

The American view, described in the report by Kenneth Lieberthal, a
member of the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton,
takes note of China's increased military spending and particularly its
designs on the "near seas" in the Pacific - as have China's neighbors,
such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan.

"American military planners interpret these Chinese aspirations and
acquisition of specific capabilities as designed ultimately to deny
U.S. forces access to and an ability to operate freely in the maritime
area beyond China's territorial waters," writes Lieberthal, referring
to the recent U.S. military buildup in the area.

More significantly, it seems to me, were references to America's
economic difficulties and "dysfunctions in (its) own political
system," which, Lieberthal said, China could "take advantage of ... to
reduce America's chances of bouncing back." Examples of such behavior
include cyber theft of intellectual property, barriers to U.S.
exports, and protectionist policies "undermining U.S. manufacturing
competitiveness in key industries."

Points well taken. America's elite shouldn't be the only ones worried
about our dysfunctions - political and economic - that have us stuck
behind the eight ball.

Uneven rise

Yet, China's rise may not be as seamless as some, apparently including
government leaders, appear to believe. Huge economic, health and
social problems confront the government, including the fact that
hundreds of millions of its citizens have yet to share in the
country's astonishingly rapid increase in living standards.

Nor are its apparent plans for America's demise as coordinated as they
appear. In many cases, as the Chinese will tell you, one hand doesn't
know - or care - what the other is doing, for example, when it comes
to implementing national policy on a local level. Just because
environmental laws exist on the books in Beijing, it doesn't mean
they're observed in outlying provinces.

And if government leaders have a dim prognosis of America's future,
others don't. "I don't think the Chinese have any greater
understanding of America than Americans have of China," said one of
the young Chinese translators who accompanied me and three other U.S.
journalists on our trip. He admired America's "soft power" and iconic
culture, which China doesn't have (though he did wonder if "Desperate
Housewives" and "CSI" reflect the true America).

"You shouldn't be losing heart," said a Chinese businessman with ties
to the government. "You're still way ahead of everyone else, including
in the quality of your people."

Still, U.S. decision makers are quite right, as the Brookings report
states, in seeing China's future as "very undetermined."

Same, of course, could be said for America's future.

Andrew S. Ross is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. Blogs at
www.sfgate.com/columns/bottomline. Facebook: sfg.ly/doACKM. Twitter:
@andrewsross. botto...@sfchronicle.com sfg.ly/Htetw2



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