[Decision,Decision] Lukashenko: If Europe wants it, the war may end in a few days

[ltlee1]

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/154181-lukashenko_war/

"On September 30, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said that there is a chance to "end the war in a few days," if the Europeans want it.

It appears that Moscow is ready to establish the status quo, whereas the West is not. Kyiv stands strongly against it and insists on tougher measures. The trap near Liman is a trump card for Western countries.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and therefore part of the Western elites, urged to conclude a new configuration of security in Europe with the participation of Russia. Former US President Donald Trump set out a desire to mediate the talks.

As for sitting US President Joe Biden, it appears that he has taken a break as Washington is analysing different scenarios.

Hard pressure may lead to unmanageable scenarios, which the White House would like to avoid. The main question is Putin. The US and the EU are not ready to negotiate personally with him. Therefore, they are waiting for Russia to offer an acceptable option, Brief Telegram channel said.

At the same time, the United States would like to prevent escalation, including possible hostilities on the territory of Russia.

The military command of Britain and Ukraine insist on strikes on military infrastructure and, above all, on the Crimean Bridge.

To crown it all, Ukraine is considering options for obtaining nuclear weapons from the UK as a guarantee to its independence."

[A. Filip]

ltlee1 <ltl...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/154181-lukashenko_war/
>
> "On September 30, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said that there is a chance to "end the war in a few days," if the Europeans want it.
>
> It appears that Moscow is ready to establish the status quo, whereas
> the West is not. Kyiv stands strongly against it and insists on
> tougher measures. The trap near Liman is a trump card for Western
> countries.

> […]

"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it."
-- George Orwell

Any idiot chief can *start* a war. Putin can end the war *he started*
even faster. Hard play is a two way street even when Yet Another Short
Victorious War had been planed by Putin The Wisest. Mistakes are paid for.

Anyway: On longer run Russia is significantly more likely to prevail but
it may be costly+ "victory". It is unlikely++ to be clean, fast and cheap.

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/6438229.Salvor_Hardin
> “Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent”
> - Salvor Hardin

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A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| You can bring any calculator you like to the midterm, as long as it
| doesn't dim the lights when you turn it on.
| (Hepler, Systems Design 182)

[ltlee1]

On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 4:55:01 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:

> ltlee1 wrote:
> > https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/154181-lukashenko_war/
> >
> > "On September 30, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said that there is a chance to "end the war in a few days," if the Europeans want it.
> >
> > It appears that Moscow is ready to establish the status quo, whereas
> > the West is not. Kyiv stands strongly against it and insists on
> > tougher measures. The trap near Liman is a trump card for Western
> > countries.
> > […]
>
> "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it."
> -- George Orwell
>
> Any idiot chief can *start* a war. Putin can end the war *he started*
> even faster. Hard play is a two way street even when Yet Another Short
> Victorious War had been planed by Putin The Wisest. Mistakes are paid for.
>
> Anyway: On longer run Russia is significantly more likely to prevail but
> it may be costly+ "victory". It is unlikely++ to be clean, fast and cheap.

The US as well as some European nations certainly want to see a longer war
which will eventually weaken Russia significantly. But how long is longer and
at what cost to ALL European nations.

[A. Filip]

ltlee1 <ltl...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 4:55:01 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
>> ltlee1 wrote:
>> > https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/154181-lukashenko_war/
>> >
>> > "On September 30, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said that there is a chance to "end the war in a few days," if the Europeans want it.
>> >
>> > It appears that Moscow is ready to establish the status quo, whereas
>> > the West is not. Kyiv stands strongly against it and insists on
>> > tougher measures. The trap near Liman is a trump card for Western
>> > countries.
>> > […]
>>
>> "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it."
>> -- George Orwell
>>
>> Any idiot chief can *start* a war. Putin can end the war *he started*
>> even faster. Hard play is a two way street even when Yet Another Short
>> Victorious War had been planed by Putin The Wisest. Mistakes are paid for.
>>
>> Anyway: On longer run Russia is significantly more likely to prevail but
>> it may be costly+ "victory". It is unlikely++ to be clean, fast and cheap.
>> […]
>
> The US as well as some European nations certainly want to see a longer war
> which will eventually weaken Russia significantly. But how long is longer and
> at what cost to ALL European nations.

It will be costly but making Putin pay little for starting open
Ukrainian war/invasion would be much more costly in long run.
"Chamberlain peace" (Munich 1938) [A] merely postpones outbreak of
problems growing even up to World War 2. Putin most likely will want
even more after yet another victory. ""Too limited/weak" reaction for
annexation of Crimea. had make Putin even bolder.
"Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."

The appetite grows as you eat
-- Polish proverb

[A] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neville_Chamberlain#Path_to_war_(October_1938_%E2%80%93_August_1939)

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| Pity the meek, for they shall inherit the earth. (Don Marquis)

[ltlee1]

On Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 4:28:26 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 4:55:01 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> >> ltlee1 wrote:
> >> > https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/154181-lukashenko_war/
> >> >
> >> > "On September 30, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said that there is a chance to "end the war in a few days," if the Europeans want it.
> >> >
> >> > It appears that Moscow is ready to establish the status quo, whereas
> >> > the West is not. Kyiv stands strongly against it and insists on
> >> > tougher measures. The trap near Liman is a trump card for Western
> >> > countries.
> >> > […]
> >>
> >> "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it."
> >> -- George Orwell
> >>
> >> Any idiot chief can *start* a war. Putin can end the war *he started*
> >> even faster. Hard play is a two way street even when Yet Another Short
> >> Victorious War had been planed by Putin The Wisest. Mistakes are paid for.
> >>
> >> Anyway: On longer run Russia is significantly more likely to prevail but
> >> it may be costly+ "victory". It is unlikely++ to be clean, fast and cheap.
> >> […]
> >
> > The US as well as some European nations certainly want to see a longer war
> > which will eventually weaken Russia significantly. But how long is longer and
> > at what cost to ALL European nations.
> It will be costly but making Putin pay little for starting open
> Ukrainian war/invasion would be much more costly in long run.

There is the view that Russia has its eyes on Ukraine's natural resources.
Such resource would give Russia a lot of staying power.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/10/ukraine-russia-energy-mineral-wealth/
"$12.4 trillion in lost wealth

Ukraine is widely known as an agricultural powerhouse. But as a raw-material mother lode, it’s
home to 117 of the 120 most widely used minerals and metals, and a major source of fossil
fuels. Official websites no longer show geolocations of these deposits; the government, citing
national security, took them down in early spring.

Yet SecDev’s analysis indicates that at least $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine’s energy deposits,
metals and minerals are now under Russian control. That figure accounts for nearly half the
dollar value of the 2,209 deposits reviewed by the company. In addition to 63 percent of the
country’s coal deposits, Moscow has seized 11 percent of its oil deposits, 20 percent of its
natural gas deposits, 42 percent of its metals and 33 percent of its deposits of rare earth and
other critical minerals including lithium."

[ltlee1]

Anyway, EU countries and NATO decision will inform the world its intention over Ukraine by its response to the latter's
"accelerated" NATO application.

[bmoore]

There is no pravda in Izvestia and no izvestia in Pravda.

[stoney]

Would NATO want a last-minute applicant?. If application is immediately approved and accepted as NATO member, would NATO want to engage the on-going war together with Ukraine? Would NATO want to rescue if Ukraine is brink of losing?

[Oleg Smirnov]

A. Filip, <news:anfi+4npn0...@wp.eu>

> The appetite grows as you eat
> -- Polish proverb

The proverb is not Polish, so Filip is lying as usual.

...

The basic idea "the more you have, the more you want" was seen already in
the writings of ancient Roman writers. In "Modern Age", in the 16th century,
at the time of early "Reformation" in Europe, when it became fashionable to
ridicule the Catholic church, French writer Rabelais picked up the passage
about eating from a contemporary French scholastic theologian and comically
played it. Those Rabelais' novels then became popular far beyond France and
thus the saying was folklorized in many national cultures, including Poland.

[A. Filip]

You merely indicate earlier origins/sources.
Polish proverb does not have to mean Polish first origin.
A cultural *intelligent* person would use something like
"incomplete information" instead of lie, any competent lawyer too.

Anyway origin of the proverb is not the most important.
Important is if "a peace deal with Putin" is going to stay for decades
(with minimal changers) or it is going to be "fundamentally
renegotiated" after a few years. It DOES change the perspective,
especially E.U. perspective.

Do you really expect any stable deal during successful Ukraine offensive?
It may be possible but it is unlikely IMHO. Ukraine is "unwilling" to
accept loss of two people republics, Putin too. It may change *later*.
West may be willing to fight to the last Ukrainian but it means little
without Ukrainians' willingness to fight.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| The Ancient Doctrine of Mind Over Matter: I don't mind... and you
| don't matter. (As revealed to reporter G. Rivera by Swami Havabanana)

[ltlee1]

On Tuesday, October 4, 2022 at 8:05:39 AM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> "Oleg Smirnov" <os...@netc.eu> wrote:
> > A. Filip, <news:anfi+4npn0...@wp.eu>
> >
> >> The appetite grows as you eat
> >> -- Polish proverb
> >
> > The proverb is not Polish, so Filip is lying as usual.
> >
> > ...
> >
> > The basic idea "the more you have, the more you want" was seen already
> > in the writings of ancient Roman writers. In "Modern Age", in the 16th
> > century,
> > at the time of early "Reformation" in Europe, when it became fashionable to
> > ridicule the Catholic church, French writer Rabelais picked up the
> > passage about eating from a contemporary French scholastic theologian
> > and comically played it. Those Rabelais' novels then became popular
> > far beyond France and thus the saying was folklorized in many national
> > cultures, including Poland.
> You merely indicate earlier origins/sources.

Just curious.
Would you consider 2+2=4 also a Polish proverb?

"Appetite comes with eating" certainly has a Polish translation.
Had anyone else claimed it a Polish saying and since when?

[ltlee1]

If one wants to pretend to be a Japanese.

This is a trick one can use.
食欲は食事と共に来る - Japanese saying.

[A. Filip]

ltlee1 <ltl...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> […]

> "Appetite comes with eating" certainly has a Polish translation.
> Had anyone else claimed it a Polish saying and since when?

> […]

It is not a polish proverb in sense "(first) origin in Poland".
It is a polish proverb in sense "proverb used in Poland".

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.

| I am just a nice, clean-cut Mongolian boy. (Yul Brynner, 1956)