Six on History: Abortion/Culture Wars
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1) Why Are Republicans So Obsessed with Pedophilia, Gender Identity, Gay People, and Abortion?, Robert Reich, LA Progressive
Republicans, meanwhile, are focusing on sex. I’ll explain why in a moment, but first consider the extent of the Republican sex obsession.
On March 28, Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill banning kindergarten through third-grade public school teachers from talking about sexual orientation or gender identity, calling it an “anti-grooming bill” and accusing opponents of wanting to groom young children for sexual exploitation. (When the Walt Disney Company, Florida’s largest employer, came out against the measure and promised the company would donate $5 million to LBGTQ organizations, DeSantis called Disney’s opposition “radical” and suggested that the Florida legislature cancel Disney’s special status in Florida that essentially makes it a local government.)
In late February, Texas’s Republican Governor Greg Abbott ordered state child welfare officials to launch child abuse investigations into reports of transgender kids receiving gender-affirming care. Last May he signed into law a ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, and gives private citizens the right to sue anyone who helps someone obtain an abortion.
First, it’s part of their culture war, and culture wars sell with voters (and the media) eager for conflict and titillation. A culture war over sex sells even better. It lets Republicans imply that Democrats are somehow on the side of sexual “deviants” who endanger the “natural order.”
Also, by focusing on sex, Republicans can court both the evangelical right and the rightwing extreme QAnon vote (with its the loony “Pizzagate” conspiracy claim that Hillary Clinton was a pedophile).
Oh, and by focusing on pedophilia, gender identity, gay people, and abortion, Republicans don’t have to talk about Trump and January 6.
Democratic politicians, wake up! You have a critical opportunity between now and the midterm elections to reframe the national conversation as it should be framed -- around abuses of economic power by corporations and the super rich. Those abuses are worsening. They affect the everyday lives of all Americans.
If you fail to do this, Americans will continue to be inundated with Republican “culture war” messages intended to deflect the public’s attention from how badly big corporations and the super wealthy are shafting them. Americans won’t understand how these economic abuses all relate to record amounts of income and wealth at the top, and what must be done to reverse this imbalance (break up monopolies, enact a windfall profits tax, raise taxes on large corporations and the super wealthy, strengthen labor unions, reform campaign finance, stop corporate welfare, and so on). And some of you will lose your jobs in the midterm elections — allowing Republicans to take over the House and Senate."
"Harvard Law School professor Laurence Tribe is warning Tuesday that if the draft opinion by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito becomes law more than the right to a safe abortion is at risk: Same sex marriage, access to conception, and other “unenumerated” rights could also come to an end.
Tribe raised the possibility of wider implications the nation could face in the wake of the unprecedented leak of the draft opinion purportedly written by Alito on the court’s pending decision on a Mississippi state law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
According to Politico, Alito clearly states there is no historic support for abortion access in American history.
“The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation’s history and traditions. On the contrary, an unbroken tradition of prohibiting abortion on pain of criminal punishment persisted from the earliest days of the common law until 1973,” Alito wrote, according to the draft decision obtained by Politico. “Together, Roe and Casey represent an error that cannot be allowed to stand.”
"Abortion is a constitutional right — at least for now. But for many women, it’s a right that comes with an asterisk.
Under current law, states can’t ban abortion until after a fetus reaches viability, which usually happens around 23 and 24 weeks of pregnancy. Some states don’t have limits on when abortions can happen, but most do — which means women have anywhere from a few weeks to a few months to make their decision and get the procedure.
Those restrictions don’t always seem especially burdensome, at least on their own. An ultrasound, a waiting period, a few hundred dollars — what’s the big deal? But when we talked to women about what their abortions were like, they told us that in real life the restrictions pile on top of each other. They add up in a way that’s expensive, bureaucratic, confusing and exhausting.
Even in states like California, where there are few formal state restrictions, access to abortion can feel threadbare and fragile. And this is what abortion looks like while it’s still a constitutional right. All of these burdens could quickly morph and multiply if the Supreme Court upholds Mississippi’s ban on abortion after 15 weeks later this year.
TRIGGER BAN
Law designed to quickly ban abortion if Roe is overturned
PRE-VIABILITY BAN
Law prohibiting abortion before 24 weeks of pregnancy
–Emily, California
... "Four weeks or much more
The amount of time a woman has to get an abortion depends a lot on when she finds out she’s pregnant. And this is where the math starts to get complicated. Because it’s very difficult to figure out exactly when conception happened, doctors count the weeks of pregnancy from the first day of a woman’s last menstrual period — which is to say, at least a week and a half before she actually became pregnant.
Using this unintuitive calculation, the earliest a woman can find out she’s pregnant is about four weeks into her pregnancy. That’s happening more and more, thanks to highly sensitive pregnancy tests. But for lots of reasons, most women don’t find out they’re pregnant until they’re further along — particularly if their cycle isn’t regular, they don’t have any pregnancy symptoms or they’ve never been pregnant before. Researchers have found, too, that the later a woman finds out she’s pregnant, the later she tends to have an abortion.
–Heather
1) Why Are Republicans So Obsessed with Pedophilia, Gender Identity, Gay People, and Abortion?, Robert Reich, LA Progressive
Republicans, meanwhile, are focusing on sex. I’ll explain why in a moment, but first consider the extent of the Republican sex obsession.
On March 28, Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill banning kindergarten through third-grade public school teachers from talking about sexual orientation or gender identity, calling it an “anti-grooming bill” and accusing opponents of wanting to groom young children for sexual exploitation. (When the Walt Disney Company, Florida’s largest employer, came out against the measure and promised the company would donate $5 million to LBGTQ organizations, DeSantis called Disney’s opposition “radical” and suggested that the Florida legislature cancel Disney’s special status in Florida that essentially makes it a local government.)
In late February, Texas’s Republican Governor Greg Abbott ordered state child welfare officials to launch child abuse investigations into reports of transgender kids receiving gender-affirming care. Last May he signed into law a ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, and gives private citizens the right to sue anyone who helps someone obtain an abortion.
First, it’s part of their culture war, and culture wars sell with voters (and the media) eager for conflict and titillation. A culture war over sex sells even better. It lets Republicans imply that Democrats are somehow on the side of sexual “deviants” who endanger the “natural order.”
Also, by focusing on sex, Republicans can court both the evangelical right and the rightwing extreme QAnon vote (with its the loony “Pizzagate” conspiracy claim that Hillary Clinton was a pedophile).
Oh, and by focusing on pedophilia, gender identity, gay people, and abortion, Republicans don’t have to talk about Trump and January 6.
Democratic politicians, wake up! You have a critical opportunity between now and the midterm elections to reframe the national conversation as it should be framed -- around abuses of economic power by corporations and the super rich. Those abuses are worsening. They affect the everyday lives of all Americans.
If you fail to do this, Americans will continue to be inundated with Republican “culture war” messages intended to deflect the public’s attention from how badly big corporations and the super wealthy are shafting them. Americans won’t understand how these economic abuses all relate to record amounts of income and wealth at the top, and what must be done to reverse this imbalance (break up monopolies, enact a windfall profits tax, raise taxes on large corporations and the super wealthy, strengthen labor unions, reform campaign finance, stop corporate welfare, and so on). And some of you will lose your jobs in the midterm elections — allowing Republicans to take over the House and Senate."
"Harvard Law School professor Laurence Tribe is warning Tuesday that if the draft opinion by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito becomes law more than the right to a safe abortion is at risk: Same sex marriage, access to conception, and other “unenumerated” rights could also come to an end.
Tribe raised the possibility of wider implications the nation could face in the wake of the unprecedented leak of the draft opinion purportedly written by Alito on the court’s pending decision on a Mississippi state law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
According to Politico, Alito clearly states there is no historic support for abortion access in American history.
“The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation’s history and traditions. On the contrary, an unbroken tradition of prohibiting abortion on pain of criminal punishment persisted from the earliest days of the common law until 1973,” Alito wrote, according to the draft decision obtained by Politico. “Together, Roe and Casey represent an error that cannot be allowed to stand.”
"Abortion is a constitutional right — at least for now. But for many women, it’s a right that comes with an asterisk.
Under current law, states can’t ban abortion until after a fetus reaches viability, which usually happens around 23 and 24 weeks of pregnancy. Some states don’t have limits on when abortions can happen, but most do — which means women have anywhere from a few weeks to a few months to make their decision and get the procedure.
Those restrictions don’t always seem especially burdensome, at least on their own. An ultrasound, a waiting period, a few hundred dollars — what’s the big deal? But when we talked to women about what their abortions were like, they told us that in real life the restrictions pile on top of each other. They add up in a way that’s expensive, bureaucratic, confusing and exhausting.
Even in states like California, where there are few formal state restrictions, access to abortion can feel threadbare and fragile. And this is what abortion looks like while it’s still a constitutional right. All of these burdens could quickly morph and multiply if the Supreme Court upholds Mississippi’s ban on abortion after 15 weeks later this year.
TRIGGER BAN
Law designed to quickly ban abortion if Roe is overturned
PRE-VIABILITY BAN
Law prohibiting abortion before 24 weeks of pregnancy
–Emily, California
... "Four weeks or much more
The amount of time a woman has to get an abortion depends a lot on when she finds out she’s pregnant. And this is where the math starts to get complicated. Because it’s very difficult to figure out exactly when conception happened, doctors count the weeks of pregnancy from the first day of a woman’s last menstrual period — which is to say, at least a week and a half before she actually became pregnant.
Using this unintuitive calculation, the earliest a woman can find out she’s pregnant is about four weeks into her pregnancy. That’s happening more and more, thanks to highly sensitive pregnancy tests. But for lots of reasons, most women don’t find out they’re pregnant until they’re further along — particularly if their cycle isn’t regular, they don’t have any pregnancy symptoms or they’ve never been pregnant before. Researchers have found, too, that the later a woman finds out she’s pregnant, the later she tends to have an abortion.
–Heather
"This comic is not intended as medical advice and was not reviewed by a medical professional. Mifepristone and/or Misoprostol may not be safe and/or effective for all people. Please consult a medical professional prior to an abortion."
"Ian Mackey, a Democratic state representative whose district includes St. Louis, gave a blistering speech in the Missouri legislature that scorched a Republican colleague who proposed a bill to ban trans athletes from all school sports. Mackey knew the bill would pass easily in the overwhelmingly Republican legislature. And it did. But as a matter of conscience, he spoke out against it.
Mackey’s impassioned speech has been viewed more than 2 million times on social media. He knows that the Republicans are acting not to solve a problem, but to express hatred for a tiny, powerless, frightened minority.
Republicans assume that if they ignite culture wars against gays, blacks, immigrants, and women who seek an abortion, they won’t need to come up with any policies that address actual problems, like an unfair tax system that benefits billionaires, climate change, or helping public schools. They can keep yammering about ”socialism” and ”the radical left” while doing their best to strangle any meaningful policy changes that improve people’s lives, other than their donors."
"By now you’ve heard the news that circulated Monday night: Politico reported that there was an internal vote within the US Supreme Court to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that allowed for access to abortion nationwide.
It’s a draft, written by Justice Samuel Alito, per the report. It is not the law of the land. More votes need to happen internally in the court and a final decision won’t be issued until June. But to the political industrial complex bombarding your email boxes with fundraising pitches, it might as well be June already.
Politically speaking, where we go from here isn’t quite obvious as both parties will make it out to be. Republicans will be forced to get very specific on what they want their state laws to allow (and to outlaw). That’s trickier territory than the sweeping statements they’ve made about abortion until now. And, well, any time spent on this issue is time not spent talking about inflation, and other, less-thorny political topics.
Here are five ways politics could quickly change should this decision hold just months before the mid-term elections.
2. Inflation and Ukraine will move off the top of the political agenda (temporarily at least)
While other issues have mattered, polling suggests three major topics have driven American politics for the past year: the economy, Ukraine, and COVID. While the economy rarely leaves the discussion, abortion could very well become a defining issue heading into November 2022. This is not to say that a ruling overturning Roe would change anyone’s mind about whether abortion should be legal, but for the first time since the landmark ruling, it will put Democrats’ energy fully behind efforts to change the law.
This will mean new political institutions will develop, ads will work to galvanize an abortion rights base, and there could be a new level of activism that may be looking at decades of work until the Supreme Court has a different makeup.
That said, inflation has been a very resilient issue in polling among American voters. Time will tell.
3. The abortion debate will get super specific and super confusing
For example, if abortion is to be banned in a certain place, then who is going to enforce such a law, who is going to be charged with a crime, and what is the specific charge and penalty? Is it years in prison? A misdemeanor?
Further, even for states where there are abortion rights, there is no longer a federal framework to follow. So at how many weeks should abortion be legal? Up until birth? Third trimester? Since legislators may need to put a number on the law, we could see debates over 20 weeks versus 21 weeks.
This is a conversation some states have not really had until now.
4. Technology, not courts or votes, could be the game changer
While abortion-rights advocates may focus on the short-term strategy of winning in state capitols and the long-term strategy of pursuing a different makeup on US Supreme Court, technology may play a role in this debate in ways it has not previously played.
Unlike before Roe, women can now obtain abortions through medication up to 10 weeks into pregnancy. While it’s not currently legal for such medication to be administered by mail, if that were to change, there might be zero way to prevent a woman in any state from receiving a pill in the mail in a non-descript envelope.
Indeed, the action here going forward might be more centered in the science community than in politics.
5. Democrats will once again talk about eliminating the filibuster
Democrats cannot change the makeup of the Supreme Court from now until June (other than Ketanji Brown Jackson stepping in for Stephen Breyer, but that’s not a change of vote on Roe.) Further, Democrats likely cannot take back a majority on the court for a good long time.
But there is one thing Democrats can actually do that is very real. A bill to make abortion access legal nationwide has already passed the US House. It is sitting in the Senate, where it is currently dormant because of the filibuster.
Should Democrats decide this is the moment, and the issue, they could scrap the filibuster and thus vote to legalize abortion. President Biden would sign that bill into law.
"Ian Mackey, a Democratic state representative whose district includes St. Louis, gave a blistering speech in the Missouri legislature that scorched a Republican colleague who proposed a bill to ban trans athletes from all school sports. Mackey knew the bill would pass easily in the overwhelmingly Republican legislature. And it did. But as a matter of conscience, he spoke out against it.
Mackey’s impassioned speech has been viewed more than 2 million times on social media. He knows that the Republicans are acting not to solve a problem, but to express hatred for a tiny, powerless, frightened minority.
Republicans assume that if they ignite culture wars against gays, blacks, immigrants, and women who seek an abortion, they won’t need to come up with any policies that address actual problems, like an unfair tax system that benefits billionaires, climate change, or helping public schools. They can keep yammering about ”socialism” and ”the radical left” while doing their best to strangle any meaningful policy changes that improve people’s lives, other than their donors."
"By now you’ve heard the news that circulated Monday night: Politico reported that there was an internal vote within the US Supreme Court to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that allowed for access to abortion nationwide.
It’s a draft, written by Justice Samuel Alito, per the report. It is not the law of the land. More votes need to happen internally in the court and a final decision won’t be issued until June. But to the political industrial complex bombarding your email boxes with fundraising pitches, it might as well be June already.
Politically speaking, where we go from here isn’t quite obvious as both parties will make it out to be. Republicans will be forced to get very specific on what they want their state laws to allow (and to outlaw). That’s trickier territory than the sweeping statements they’ve made about abortion until now. And, well, any time spent on this issue is time not spent talking about inflation, and other, less-thorny political topics.
Here are five ways politics could quickly change should this decision hold just months before the mid-term elections.
2. Inflation and Ukraine will move off the top of the political agenda (temporarily at least)
While other issues have mattered, polling suggests three major topics have driven American politics for the past year: the economy, Ukraine, and COVID. While the economy rarely leaves the discussion, abortion could very well become a defining issue heading into November 2022. This is not to say that a ruling overturning Roe would change anyone’s mind about whether abortion should be legal, but for the first time since the landmark ruling, it will put Democrats’ energy fully behind efforts to change the law.
This will mean new political institutions will develop, ads will work to galvanize an abortion rights base, and there could be a new level of activism that may be looking at decades of work until the Supreme Court has a different makeup.
That said, inflation has been a very resilient issue in polling among American voters. Time will tell.
3. The abortion debate will get super specific and super confusing
For example, if abortion is to be banned in a certain place, then who is going to enforce such a law, who is going to be charged with a crime, and what is the specific charge and penalty? Is it years in prison? A misdemeanor?
Further, even for states where there are abortion rights, there is no longer a federal framework to follow. So at how many weeks should abortion be legal? Up until birth? Third trimester? Since legislators may need to put a number on the law, we could see debates over 20 weeks versus 21 weeks.
This is a conversation some states have not really had until now.
4. Technology, not courts or votes, could be the game changer
While abortion-rights advocates may focus on the short-term strategy of winning in state capitols and the long-term strategy of pursuing a different makeup on US Supreme Court, technology may play a role in this debate in ways it has not previously played.
Unlike before Roe, women can now obtain abortions through medication up to 10 weeks into pregnancy. While it’s not currently legal for such medication to be administered by mail, if that were to change, there might be zero way to prevent a woman in any state from receiving a pill in the mail in a non-descript envelope.
Indeed, the action here going forward might be more centered in the science community than in politics.
5. Democrats will once again talk about eliminating the filibuster
Democrats cannot change the makeup of the Supreme Court from now until June (other than Ketanji Brown Jackson stepping in for Stephen Breyer, but that’s not a change of vote on Roe.) Further, Democrats likely cannot take back a majority on the court for a good long time.
But there is one thing Democrats can actually do that is very real. A bill to make abortion access legal nationwide has already passed the US House. It is sitting in the Senate, where it is currently dormant because of the filibuster.
Should Democrats decide this is the moment, and the issue, they could scrap the filibuster and thus vote to legalize abortion. President Biden would sign that bill into law.
