Six on History: The South China Sea
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ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Top U.S. and Chinese officials offered sharply different views of each other and the wo...
He said the US had no right to push its own version of democracy when it was dealing with so much discontent and human-rights problems at home.
Russia, China drawing closer togetherMANILA (Reuters) - "The Philippine military is sending light fighter aircraft to fly over hundreds of Chinese vessels in disputed waters in the South China Sea, its defence minister said, as he repeated his demand the flotilla be withdrawn immediately.
International concern is growing over what the Philippines has described as a “swarming and threatening presence” of more than 200 Chinese vessels that Manila believes were manned by maritime militia.
The Philippine military aircraft were sent daily to monitor the situation, Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in a statement late on Saturday.
Lorenzana said the military will also beef up its naval presence in the South China Sea to conduct “sovereignty patrols” and protect Filipino fishermen.
"While the world is distracted by the coronavirus pandemic, China has been quietly taking paramilitary and political-legal actions in the South China Sea that could be game-changing for the region. Betting that the United States is focused elsewhere and exhausted from years of Chinese encroachments, Beijing’s efforts are approaching an irretrievable tipping point. China aims to coerce its maritime neighbors to abandon their claims and territorial rights under international law and irrevocably alter the status quo. Beijing seeks to impose its so-called nine-dash line, an unrecognized boundary it has drawn around 85 percent of the South China Sea, almost all of it in international waters, and through which $3.4 trillion in shipped goods pass each year—freely, at least for now."
MANILA – "Another close encounter between US and Chinese warships capped a tumultuous year in the South China Sea, where the two superpowers are jostling for supremacy in Asia’s maritime heartland.
The upshot has been an increasingly perilous tit-for-tat between the two rivals, with the potential to set off a devastating military confrontation coincident with US President-elect Joseph Biden’s inauguration.
Earlier this week, naval forces from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command reportedly expelled the USS John S McCain while it was sailing through Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea.
The incident reportedly took place while the US Navy was conducting a routine Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) in the hotly contested area, with Beijing claiming the bulk of the South China Sea as part of its “blue national soil”.
The FONOPs have been the US’ primary means of challenging China’s wide-reaching claims in adjacent waters, but they also seem to have simultaneously fueled the latter’s drive to militarize disputed land features in the area with rising self-confidence."
That sinking feeling: chance of war in South China Sea
John Carter, Senior Editor, Political Economy
19 September 2020Hello again,
In this eighth edition of the South China Morning Post - Global Impact newsletter we will be looking at rising tensions in the South China Sea and how this has increased the chances for armed conflict between China and the US.
In each issue we explore an emerging topic involving China that carries a significant impact on the rest of the world, connecting the dots and providing perspectives that show the influence of the topic.
We have launched our Global Impact newsletter for quite some time now and we are keen to hear what you think about it and how we can serve your content needs or preferences better. In doing so, we need your help to fill out this short survey, which you can find here. Your opinion will be treated in the strictest confidence and analysed at aggregate level only. Many thanks in advance for your support!
Explosive mix: US, China, Asean nations face off in South China Sea
If you want to start a world war, a good way to do it is to mix the escalating conflict between two of the world’s greatest military powers with the grievances of a half-dozen smaller countries over territorial claims.
That’s the current situation in the South China Sea, the massive body of water that stretches more than 4,000km (2,485 miles) from mainland China in the north to Indonesia in the south - about the same distance between London and Chicago.
China has claimed the vast majority of the South China Sea as its exclusive territory, including areas claimed by six other governments - Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam - that consider them part of their own exclusive economic zones. A map of the conflicting claims can be seen in this graphic presentation, while the history of China’s territorial disputes, including in the South China Sea, is explained in this video.
China considers the South China Sea one of its "core" interests, of equal importance as Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, meaning it is ready to go to war to defend it. It has marked the territory by a "nine dash line" on its maps, and even on its passports, angering its neighbours.
China needs the oil and mineral wealth hidden beneath the South China Sea to supply its rapid economic recovery, as well as the fishing catch needed to feed the country’s 1.4 billion stomachs.
An international tribunal ruled in 2016 that China did not have the right to claim the South China Sea as its sovereign territory, a ruling that China has pointedly rejected.
To secure this vast sea area, China has turned uninhabited atolls and half-submerged rock formations into forward military bases, as personally directed by President Xi Jinping. Regular Chinese sea patrols monitor the area, driving away fishing boats from other nations from what it considers its exclusive fishing area.
The intrusion of China into what other Asian nations consider their sovereign territory has caused tensions in the region to ratchet up, with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) increasingly pushing back, at times with violent confrontations.
The US has flatly rejected Chinese claims to the South China Sea, and has dramatically stepped up its military presence in the area. Each side has warned the other of the dangers of further escalation, with the US sanctioning Chinese firms that helped build China’s island outposts. Rarely a week goes by without a US warship sailing near Chinese held outputs as part a "freedom of navigation" exercise, shadowed by Chinese vessels the entire way. Confrontations have brought warships from both nations within a few metres of each other, a dangerous situation that could easily get out of hand.
Tensions have ratched up recently, with the Chinese and US navies holding exercises in the region at the same time. In a provocation move, the Chinese test fired several of its "aircraft carrier killer" missiles in a clear warning to the US to back off its "interference" in the South China Sea.
And some Asean nations are starting to push back against Chinese "intrusions" into their territorial waters, threatening to draw the US deeper into local disputes, though the group as a whole is trying to avoid picking sides in the US-China confrontation. The latest incident occurred this week, with Indonesia’s foreign ministry lodging an official protest after a Chinese coastguard ship spent two days sailing through Indonesia territorial waters.
Chinese military commands have been ordered not to shoot first in any confrontation with the US military, but with heavily armed warships and planes constantly patrolling the area, even a small error in judgment could lead to a shooting war. And with the US presidential election less than two months away, there is no sign that tensions between two of the world’s largest militaries will de-escalate any time soon.
60 SECOND CATCH-UP•
VIDEO: The South China Sea dispute explained
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Explainer: South China Sea: the dispute that could start a military conflict
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Explainer: why are tensions running high in the South China Sea dispute?
DEEP DIVES
Video: More footage emerges from 2018 near collision of US and China warships in South China Sea
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Additional US Navy video footage has been released showing a tense encounter between Chinese and US warships in the South China Sea in late 2018, offering an indication of how seriously the Chinese side were prepared for a collision with the US vessel in the contested waterway.
US Navy footage of near collision in South China Sea•
New footage of a 2018 encounter between a Chinese and US warship has been released to the Post following a freedom of information request
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Experts say it appears to show the Chinese PLA crew preparing for a collision
A newly-released US Navy video of the tense encounter between a Chinese and US warship in the South China Sea in late 2018 offers an indication of how seriously the Chinese side were prepared for a collision with the US vessel in the contested waterway.
In the footage of the incident, which at the time caused heated exchanges between Washington and Beijing, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy crew can be seen preparing buoys designed to absorb impact and protect the hull of their ship in the event of a collision between a Chinese Luyang destroyer and the USS Decatur. Read more
Chinese military told not to fire first shot in stand-off with US•
Sources say that troops have been given orders not to escalate situation as both sides step up their activities in the disputed waters
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Beijing said to be keen to cool the ‘tense and dangerous situation’ and agreed to a conversation between defence ministers after initially snubbing the request
China has told its service personnel “not to fire the first shot” as Beijing looks to de-escalate tensions with the United States in the South China Sea, sources familiar with the situation told the South China Morning Post.
Both sides have stepped up their operations in the disputed waters, increasing the risk of incidents that spiral out of control, but Beijing does not want to give American hawks the opportunity to escalate things further. Read more
Video: Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions•Video showing US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo making an online statement on July 13, 2020, in which he shared Washington’s hardened position on the South China Sea.
China-US close encounters ‘raise conflict risk in South China Sea’
•Warships from both countries came within 100m of each other in April, Chinese military insider says
•Washington and Beijing need to find a way to stop such incidents escalating and going out of control, maritime analyst says
China and the US are running the risk of conflict and should come up with a way to manage such crises as their warships engage in close encounters in the South China Sea, according to maritime strategy specialists.
A Chinese military insider said that in one incident in April, vessels from both nations came as close as 100 metres of each other. Read more
Video: Hong Kong-based warship joins drill in South China Sea•The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) garrison in Hong Kong on August 16, 2020, released footage of a Hong Kong-based warship, the Huizhou, conducting a live-fire drill in the South China Sea. The video came out one day after the US Navy said a strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan had carried out operations in the disputed waters.
As the US presidential election on November 3 approaches, US President Donald Trump may seek to increase confrontation in the South China Sea to bolster his get-tough-with-China credentials. You can follow our daily coverage of the evolving situation on our main website or focus on our South China Sea coverage or the latest on the US-China relationship.
In our next newsletter, we’ll look at how ByteDance’s popular short video app TikTok became a ping pong ball in the high-stakes tech match between the US and China
We’d welcome your feedback. Email me at globalimpact@scmp.com or tweet me at @scmpeconomy. Plus, be sure to check out our Economy news feed for the latest news and analysis.
All the best,
John
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