FW: Outlook for Monsoon (JAS, 2023) - as shared by OCHA

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Susan Grace Nsangi

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Jun 23, 2023, 3:54:59 AM6/23/23
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Dear WASH Sector Partners,

 

Please see below the outlook for the 2023 Monsoon season as shared by OCHA.

 

From: Gift Chatora <cha...@un.org>
Sent: Thursday, June 22, 2023 7:28 PM
To: karimelguindi [WFP] <karim.e...@wfp.org>; Sultan MEHMOOD <sultan....@wfp.org>; Khurram ATTA <khurra...@wfp.org>; Masooma Qazilbash <mqazi...@unicef.org>; Susan Grace Nsangi <sns...@unicef.org>; Muhammad Abbas Khan [IOM] <muhamm...@iom.int>; mq...@unfpa.org; Tanvir Elahi Khan <kha...@un.org>; iqb...@un.org; Sameen Ullah Afridi <afr...@un.org>; MATTEAU Vincent <vmat...@iom.int>; lukw...@who.int; Gift Chatora <cha...@un.org>; Abdul Nasir Khan [IFRC] <Nasir...@ifrc.org>; KARKI Navin <nka...@iom.int>; OCHA-FO-Pakistan_ISCG <OCHA-FO-Pa...@un.org>
Cc: Carlos Geha <ge...@un.org>; Peter Ophoff [IFRC] <peter....@ifrc.org>; MSFOCB-Islamabad-HOM <msfocb-isl...@brussels.msf.org>; mho...@unfpa.org; iqb...@un.org; Tanvir Elahi Khan <kha...@un.org>
Subject: Outlook for Monsoon (JAS, 2023)

 

Dear Colleagues,

 

For your information please.

 

Synoptic situation:

During the upcoming monsoon season (July-August-September, JAS-2023), it is anticipated that El Niño conditions will prevail, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain in positive phase. Taking into account these global and regional circulation patterns, the outlook for Pakistan is as follows:

 

Seasonal Outlook:

The given climate conditions suggest that most areas may have normal to slightly below-normal rainfall. Northern regions may experience slightly above-normal rainfall, while western parts of Balochistan can expect near-normal rainfall. Seasonal temperatures are expected to remain within normal* to higher than normal* ranges across the country.

 

Impact:

  • The possibility of occasional extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchment areas cannot be ruled out, that may generate riverine floods in the major rivers.
  • The likelihood of urban flooding, hill torrents, and flash floods may also exist due to isolated heavy downpours.
  • Soaring temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir could accelerate snowmelt, resulting in an increased flow of water into rivers.
  • Farmers are advised to stay vigilant and plan water conservation for upcoming Kharif season cultivation.

 

Regards,

 

 

Gift Chatora PhD  | Deputy Head of Office |  United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) | OCHA Pakistan - UN OCHA Office, level 2, Serena business Complex, Islamabad |Tel: +923491008325 Mobile:  | +Email: cha...@un.org| OCHA - Coordination Saves Lives | Join our mailing list | reliefweb.int | |  UNOCHA

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JAS-2023.pdf
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