Weather Tomorrow At My Location 10 Days Download Youtube
Ellen Woolcock
The current wave at approximately 27 W has started becoming more disorganized, so the flight plan today has been cancelled. No models are developing anything significant from the current system in the next few days, as the system is being torn apart by southerly shear. A retrograding upper-tropospheric trough at 27 N, 32 W is pulling air from the south above the current wave system; thus, this wave is being abandoned. The next wave shows distinct circulation and is currently located at 13 N, 5 W (near Bamako, Mali), but the models are disagreeing on its translational speed. The model consensus is that the wave will slow down and exit the coast sometime on Tuesday, September 12. The FSU MM5 has its exiting at 06Z, while the FSUSE, GFS, and UKMet have its exiting later in the day between 12Z and 18Z. This wave does appear to be the better choice, as low-level wind analysis indicates that the second wave has more moisture, a favorable location with respect to the African Monsoonal flow, and a dominant role in determining the zonal flow. The first wave is bypassed almost completely by the zonal flow just north of the ITCZ.
The GFS forecasts indicate a strengthening trough axis, but model output trends indicate a bias towards this development. ECMWF 700-mb forecasts out to four days display a weak wave that does not intensify dynamically. This wave is also slowed in all models by a large mid-tropospheric high pressure system located around 20N and 20W. There is formation of a broad low-level circulation once the wave exits the coast, but this is a standard model prognostication, something we have seen throughout the duration of this campaign. As far as convection is concerned, the zonal pattern of the low-level flow and the presence of extremely dry air do not indicate an imminent convective event resulting from this wave, so the science team is taking a wait-and-see approach. Currently, they are hoping for a 6-hour flight tomorrow. Final preparations will not be made until tomorrow, as this system bears hopeful watching.
weather tomorrow at my location 10 days download youtube
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