One in Four Israeli Jews Would Leave Israel to Another Country if They Could, New Survey Finds
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Sid Shniad
Jul 20, 2024, 3:37:44 PM (13 hours ago) Jul 20
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https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-17/ty-article/.premium/one-in-four-israeli-jews-would-leave-israel-if-they-could-new-survey-finds/00000190-c202-d3e0-a5fd-ebb7ad1e0000
Haaretz July 17, 2024
One in Four Israeli Jews Would Leave Israel to Another Country if They Could, New Survey Finds
Nearly half of Israel's Arab citizens say they would emigrate if given a practical opportunity, according to the latest monthly survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute. 30 percent of all respondents indicated they prefer Biden and 24 percent preferred Trump
Relatives and supporters of Israeli soldiers killed during the October 7 attack
One in Four Israeli Jews Would Leave Israel to Another Country if They Could, New Survey Finds
Nearly half of Israel's Arab citizens say they would emigrate if given a practical opportunity, according to the latest monthly survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute. 30 percent of all respondents indicated they prefer Biden and 24 percent preferred Trump
Relatives and supporters of Israeli soldiers killed during the October 7 attack
march in support of an independent investigation into the attack, near Nahal
Oz military base in southern Israel, on Wednesday.Credit: Ricardo Moraes / Reuters
Rachel Fink
One in four Israeli Jews and four in ten Arab Israelis would leave Israel and emigrate to another country, if given a practical opportunity to do so, according to a new survey, whose results reflect a steady distrust with Israel's political and military leadership.
The July results from the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) monthly survey, published on Tuesday, paint a grim picture. The data was collected from both Jews and Arabs, in proportion to Israel's population divide, with questions divided into five broad categories - The first deals with the war and its repercussions, the second with trust in leadership, the third with Israel-U.S. relations, the fourth with the ultra-Orthodox conscription controversy, and the fifth with questions about Israel's future.
Israel-Hamas War
An overwhelming majority of Israeli citizens are very or somewhat concerned about Israel's current security situation, with a slightly larger percentage of Arab citizens (90 percent) indicating this level of concern over Jewish Israelis (84 percent). On the right, including the center-right, the tendency is to be "somewhat concerned," while those in the center and leaning left tend to be "very concerned."
Respondents were also asked to rate their confidence in Israel's ability to win the war on a scale between one and five, a question JPPI has been posed every month since the war began.
Overall, confidence has steadily declined as the months have gone by, but in July, there was a slight increase compared with May and June in the degree of confidence among Jewish Israelis that Israel will win the war. 41 percent rated their confidence of victory at four or five this month as compared to May and June's average of 40 percent. Among Arab Israelis in the most recent poll, 45 percent rated the likelihood of victory at the lower levels (one or two), while a quarter (26 percent) rated it at the higher levels (four or five).
Results of the survey also reflect a shift in Israeli opinion with respect to Israel's conduct during wartime. Compared with an identical question from two years ago, there has been a significant change among Israel's Jewish population regarding the correct balance between a desire to behave morally in war, and the need to defend Israeli interests. Two years ago most of the public supported an emphasis on morality, balanced with concern for the state's interests (31 percent favored ethical behavior with exceptions, and 22 percent favored an equal balance), but today the weight has shifted toward an interest-based policy, with morality coming second (26 percent for interests only and 32 percent for interests with exceptions in cases of for serious moral violation).
Results of this question yielded major ideology-driven disparities, with the right showing a significant preference (48 percent) for conduct solely based on interests with no moral considerations, the center-right showing a clear preference (50 percent) for conduct based on interests but with exceptions, and the center and left giving greater priority to a balance or to an emphasis on morality.
Trust in Leadership
Respondents were also asked about their trust in the government as a whole and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, specifically, whose approval ratings have been low through the nine months since October 7 and remained so in July. Only two percent of Arabs and 16 percent of Jews expressed a very high level of confidence in Netanyahu. Nine percent of Arab Israelis have fairly or very high confidence in the government in general, while among Jewish Israelis, 26 percent have fairly or very high confidence in the government. This is a slight slippage in both sectors from last month.
In terms of military leadership, JPPI shifted the wording of a question asked in previous months from "What is your level of trust in IDF commanders?" to "What is your level of trust in the senior IDF command?" This change, and possibly other factors such as waning confidence in the IDF's combat performance, led to a significant decline this month in Israelis' trust in the IDF command echelon compared with earlier months. The finding indicates that over half express low or very low trust in the leaders in question.
In general, trust in senior IDF command decreases as respondents' political affiliation moves towards the right. For example, among Jews who define themselves as "right-wing," eight in ten indicated a low or very low trust in IDF senior command, whereas among those Jews who labeled themselves "centrists," two out of three have a high or very high level of trust.
Respondents were also asked about anti-government protests, which in recent months have focused on the government's failures on October 7 as well as the delay in brokering a hostage deal. As expected, Jewish centrists and leftists show high support for the protests, while those on the right show low support. However, half of those on the left said they support the demonstrations in principle, even though a large proportion of them think they are "excessive."
Israel and the U.S.
Ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, survey participants were also asked which of the two candidates, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, they would rather see in the Oval Office. In total, 24 percent of all respondents indicated they would prefer Trump and 30 percent voted for Biden. A much higher percentage of Jewish Israelis are rooting for a Trump win (51 percent) than Arab Israelis (23 percent). For Biden, 35 percent of his Israeli supporters are Jewish, compared to 13 percent Arab.
As U.S.-Israel relations continue down their bumpy road, a large majority of Jewish and Arab Israelis agree that America is an important ally of Israel. Among Jews, half feel that this fact demands that Israel compromise on its positions, while the other half feel that it does not necessitate compromise by Israel.
Willingness to compromise on positions is very high among the left and fairly high among centrists (61 percent), while among the right (including the center-right) a majority feel that "the U.S. is an important ally, but that doesn't mean we have to accept its views. If we agree – great. If we disagree – Israel should do as it sees fit."
Ultra-Orthodox Conscription
In June, Israel's Supreme Court ruled that all young ultra-Orthodox men are eligible for military conscription, sparking large protests among the ultra-Orthodox, who were previously exempt from serving in the army. While the majority (63 percent) of all Israeli Jews side with the Supreme Court, as expected, the vast majority of ultra-Orthodox do not (82 percent).
The present survey's findings indicate that this is true of "traditionalist" and "religious" Israelis as well. Half of the religious respondents believe that the current situation is not equitable, but that it should be rectified "gradually and through persuasion," and this is the reason why they do not support the Supreme Court ruling.
Only a small majority of those with an opinion on the matter support drafting yeshiva students into the IDF "by any means, including coercion (or withholding funding)," though a whopping 70 percent of those who do advocate for this method identify as secular. Most other groups prefer "gradualism and persuasion" as a way of drafting more ulta-Orthodox into the IDF.
Israel's Future
The survey then asked about emigration. Participants were asked how strongly they agree with the statement, "If I had a practical opportunity to emigrate, I would do so." A quarter of Jewish Israelis and four in ten Arab Israelis indicated they agreed. For Arab respondents, this result showed a certain increase compared to March, the last time the question was asked, but the sample is smaller, and it is too early to tell whether this constitutes a trend.
Among Jewish Israelis, there has been almost no change on the issue of emigration since March. The percentage of those agreeing with the statement on emigration is higher among secular Israelis who identify with the center and the left (center – 33 percent, center-left – 36 percent), and significantly lower among religious Israelis (four percent).
Finally, participants were asked about their level of optimism for the State of Israel. Among both Jewish and Arab Israelis, there has been a slight decline in optimism regarding Israel's future compared with the March survey, and a rise (mainly among Arabs) in the percentage of those who are pessimistic about the future of the state. Within the population as a whole, a small majority of pessimists outweighs optimists (51 percent versus 47 percent).
Rachel Fink
One in four Israeli Jews and four in ten Arab Israelis would leave Israel and emigrate to another country, if given a practical opportunity to do so, according to a new survey, whose results reflect a steady distrust with Israel's political and military leadership.
The July results from the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) monthly survey, published on Tuesday, paint a grim picture. The data was collected from both Jews and Arabs, in proportion to Israel's population divide, with questions divided into five broad categories - The first deals with the war and its repercussions, the second with trust in leadership, the third with Israel-U.S. relations, the fourth with the ultra-Orthodox conscription controversy, and the fifth with questions about Israel's future.
Israel-Hamas War
An overwhelming majority of Israeli citizens are very or somewhat concerned about Israel's current security situation, with a slightly larger percentage of Arab citizens (90 percent) indicating this level of concern over Jewish Israelis (84 percent). On the right, including the center-right, the tendency is to be "somewhat concerned," while those in the center and leaning left tend to be "very concerned."
Respondents were also asked to rate their confidence in Israel's ability to win the war on a scale between one and five, a question JPPI has been posed every month since the war began.
Overall, confidence has steadily declined as the months have gone by, but in July, there was a slight increase compared with May and June in the degree of confidence among Jewish Israelis that Israel will win the war. 41 percent rated their confidence of victory at four or five this month as compared to May and June's average of 40 percent. Among Arab Israelis in the most recent poll, 45 percent rated the likelihood of victory at the lower levels (one or two), while a quarter (26 percent) rated it at the higher levels (four or five).
Results of the survey also reflect a shift in Israeli opinion with respect to Israel's conduct during wartime. Compared with an identical question from two years ago, there has been a significant change among Israel's Jewish population regarding the correct balance between a desire to behave morally in war, and the need to defend Israeli interests. Two years ago most of the public supported an emphasis on morality, balanced with concern for the state's interests (31 percent favored ethical behavior with exceptions, and 22 percent favored an equal balance), but today the weight has shifted toward an interest-based policy, with morality coming second (26 percent for interests only and 32 percent for interests with exceptions in cases of for serious moral violation).
Results of this question yielded major ideology-driven disparities, with the right showing a significant preference (48 percent) for conduct solely based on interests with no moral considerations, the center-right showing a clear preference (50 percent) for conduct based on interests but with exceptions, and the center and left giving greater priority to a balance or to an emphasis on morality.
Trust in Leadership
Respondents were also asked about their trust in the government as a whole and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, specifically, whose approval ratings have been low through the nine months since October 7 and remained so in July. Only two percent of Arabs and 16 percent of Jews expressed a very high level of confidence in Netanyahu. Nine percent of Arab Israelis have fairly or very high confidence in the government in general, while among Jewish Israelis, 26 percent have fairly or very high confidence in the government. This is a slight slippage in both sectors from last month.
In terms of military leadership, JPPI shifted the wording of a question asked in previous months from "What is your level of trust in IDF commanders?" to "What is your level of trust in the senior IDF command?" This change, and possibly other factors such as waning confidence in the IDF's combat performance, led to a significant decline this month in Israelis' trust in the IDF command echelon compared with earlier months. The finding indicates that over half express low or very low trust in the leaders in question.
In general, trust in senior IDF command decreases as respondents' political affiliation moves towards the right. For example, among Jews who define themselves as "right-wing," eight in ten indicated a low or very low trust in IDF senior command, whereas among those Jews who labeled themselves "centrists," two out of three have a high or very high level of trust.
Respondents were also asked about anti-government protests, which in recent months have focused on the government's failures on October 7 as well as the delay in brokering a hostage deal. As expected, Jewish centrists and leftists show high support for the protests, while those on the right show low support. However, half of those on the left said they support the demonstrations in principle, even though a large proportion of them think they are "excessive."
Israel and the U.S.
Ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, survey participants were also asked which of the two candidates, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, they would rather see in the Oval Office. In total, 24 percent of all respondents indicated they would prefer Trump and 30 percent voted for Biden. A much higher percentage of Jewish Israelis are rooting for a Trump win (51 percent) than Arab Israelis (23 percent). For Biden, 35 percent of his Israeli supporters are Jewish, compared to 13 percent Arab.
As U.S.-Israel relations continue down their bumpy road, a large majority of Jewish and Arab Israelis agree that America is an important ally of Israel. Among Jews, half feel that this fact demands that Israel compromise on its positions, while the other half feel that it does not necessitate compromise by Israel.
Willingness to compromise on positions is very high among the left and fairly high among centrists (61 percent), while among the right (including the center-right) a majority feel that "the U.S. is an important ally, but that doesn't mean we have to accept its views. If we agree – great. If we disagree – Israel should do as it sees fit."
Ultra-Orthodox Conscription
In June, Israel's Supreme Court ruled that all young ultra-Orthodox men are eligible for military conscription, sparking large protests among the ultra-Orthodox, who were previously exempt from serving in the army. While the majority (63 percent) of all Israeli Jews side with the Supreme Court, as expected, the vast majority of ultra-Orthodox do not (82 percent).
The present survey's findings indicate that this is true of "traditionalist" and "religious" Israelis as well. Half of the religious respondents believe that the current situation is not equitable, but that it should be rectified "gradually and through persuasion," and this is the reason why they do not support the Supreme Court ruling.
Only a small majority of those with an opinion on the matter support drafting yeshiva students into the IDF "by any means, including coercion (or withholding funding)," though a whopping 70 percent of those who do advocate for this method identify as secular. Most other groups prefer "gradualism and persuasion" as a way of drafting more ulta-Orthodox into the IDF.
Israel's Future
The survey then asked about emigration. Participants were asked how strongly they agree with the statement, "If I had a practical opportunity to emigrate, I would do so." A quarter of Jewish Israelis and four in ten Arab Israelis indicated they agreed. For Arab respondents, this result showed a certain increase compared to March, the last time the question was asked, but the sample is smaller, and it is too early to tell whether this constitutes a trend.
Among Jewish Israelis, there has been almost no change on the issue of emigration since March. The percentage of those agreeing with the statement on emigration is higher among secular Israelis who identify with the center and the left (center – 33 percent, center-left – 36 percent), and significantly lower among religious Israelis (four percent).
Finally, participants were asked about their level of optimism for the State of Israel. Among both Jewish and Arab Israelis, there has been a slight decline in optimism regarding Israel's future compared with the March survey, and a rise (mainly among Arabs) in the percentage of those who are pessimistic about the future of the state. Within the population as a whole, a small majority of pessimists outweighs optimists (51 percent versus 47 percent).
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